Thursday 15th – Rocket Launch

Wednesdays CPI report showed that inflation came in a little hotter than expected.  Hot enough to light a fuse in some cases.  Let’s review our markets…

 

 

SPX – On day 3 after the lows were in place, the SPX crossed the 10sma. It may pause or stall at the 50sma, or it may just burst through, but either way, this should be the start of a new daily cycle.   It would be considered a safer buy , because the lows should not be broken for weeks if this is true.

WTIC – Oil seems to be putting in a dcl.   It could see a couple of weeks of strength, and then I am keeping my eye on it for a possible ‘short’ into an ICL.

 

USD From Tuesdays report – People wrote to me saying that this was an ICL, so we needed to beware for precious metals. I just saw it as a dcl that looked very much like the one in Nov-December, peaking on day 11.

USD –

I suspected that it would roll over and give us a drop into an  ICL and a rally in precious metals. The USD has room to run lower.

 

We had the CPI report for January released and inflation was a bit hotter than expected (Inflation).  Gold Immediately dropped $10, and I started posting in the comments that I thought it was a fake out. I noted that GDXJ dropped 27 cents, and GDX only dropped 5 cents during all of Pre-Market. I was loading up & commenting that it seemed like a fake drop,  and THE TUESDAY MORNING & WEDNESDAY MORNING REPORT ON ‘SPROUTS‘  said ” LOOK FOR A BREAK OVER THE 10SMA & TRENDLINE FOR A CONFIRMED DCL & SAFER ENTRY” Click to enlarge from yesterdays report, it was pretty clear and I had been saying that I bought the reversal Friday and added too.  THIS WOULD BE A SAFER BUY AREA.

 

 

That $10 drop was 1 last chance to shake out the weak hands.  Down $10 & up $35 from those lows.

 

 

GOLD  – Prior runs were mostly made from a few ‘day after day after day’ small gainers, but this move was big right out of the lows.

 

 

Let me ask you a question:  If I told you we were going on a 30 day journey, and we were on day 4, would you say it was ‘Late’ in our trip or ‘Early’?  We are early in this daily cycle.  I keep hearing that people “missed the move” , but that was day 4.

 

GOLD  – Gold broke out above the 10sma and trend line sharply on day 4. That was the buy signal that I have been pointing out in every report.

 

GOLD  – Gold is actually close to a serious break out.  This is part of a massive base, and no doubt there are shorts up here thinking that it is time for Gold to drop. A break out here could really catch fire with short cover.

SILVER  – Please read the chart, several Silver stocks did well on Wednesday.

GDXJ  – We just saw 3 days of gains that took 12 days on the last rally, as  GDXJ easily broke above both the 50 & 200sma.  There may or may not be a pause, but either way, this is starting out strong.  I think that the ‘shake out’ last friday drew people into ‘short ‘ positions and they are now forced to cover.

 

GDX – That run in January 2016 was a shake out launch too.  Many went short at the break down, and got trapped. Buyers were dropped off at the very lows and they ‘waited’ for a deeper  pull back to get back in, but short covering and buying drove that 2016 run higher than any expected.   That pull back never happened for more than a day.  Buying with a stop under the lows was better than waiting.

 

Above I raised this question:  If I told you we were going on a 30 day journey, and we were on day 4, would you say it was ‘Late’ in our trip or ‘Early’?  The reason I ask is that we are on day 4 and some are writing and telling me that they ‘missed the rally’.  This daily cycle could run for 30 days, and 2 to 3 weeks of it could be heading higher.  WEDNESDAY was the confirmed swing low,  that was THE BUY signal.

Let’s look at some Miners  ( I already mentioned  CDE, SAND, HMY etc in Tuesdays report to prepare you to buy, in case you want to review those charts.  CDE HMY & SAND all popped very nicely yesterday.  They should have been bought Wednesday morning)

 

GORO  – You can see that Goro is still a series of higher lows. The Shake out last week didn’t break Dec lows.

 

HMY – I posted that I bought HMY ( it was up 5%) , then I grabbed this chart.  I bought because it had very big volume right at the start of the day and broke out. This is a break out gap and it ‘might’ fill or we might see a bull flag. If it back tests and fills I might just add, you could ‘buy’.

HMY – It closed up almost 12% & could just keep running.

 

 

NSRPF – Finally we are seeing the set up that many of us have been waiting for  (but no one probably cares now 🙂    I see a rising MACD, a push above the 10sma, and a burst of volume.  It hardly looks like it moved, right? That is a 16% Pop.  It may struggle at the 50/200sma, so you can wait until it gets above those,  or buy with a stop now. I remember when this was $7 and MANY in our comments were asking me “WHERE TO GET IN!”.  Now that it is under $4, we cant sell it to people.  I think it may be a bargain now, especially if it gets above the 50/200.

 

THM  – Last week I said that I bought a lot of THM, and yesterday I grabbed this chart before the close.  Why? This is a weekly chart and it hardly looks like it is getting started, even though  it was up 12 % yesterday.  I mentioned that this one did NOT sell off in the recent shake out last week and looks ready to run higher to me.  The eventual potential is a double, triple, etc to former highs  ( And beyond?).

 

TRX – Notice that TRX  also DID NOT sell off to lows in last weeks shake out, instead it found support at the 50sma. Wednesday it Burst higher up 13% when I took this, but it can run a lot higher.

 

Just as a sidenote:   TRX, THM, and a few others did not break down last week, held support, and were up as much as JNUG yesterday.

 

AUMN – Still inside of the ‘base’, still near the lows, it may be ready to go now.  It did follow the shake out last week, but it seems to be base building and will likley break out sooner or later.  I bought this already at the lows and held this one.  Sitting this close to the lows shows that it is not ‘too late’  to enter this one.

 

BTG – As pointed out in prior reports,  BTG has proven itself to be a leader. It STILL has a series of Higher lows within this consolidation,  and …

 

BTG – Eventually I would expect this weekly sideways flag to break out & run swiftly.

 

VGZ –  “WHY WAS VGZ ONLY UP 2.4%?  WHY IS IT SO WEAK? “

THIS IS NOT WEAK, VGZ is up 70 % off of Dec lows,  that makes this very strong.  It hardly pulled back on the recent slam down shake out. It is now holding above the 50/ 200sma.  In addition to that…

VGZ WEEKLY – The potential here when Miners get rallying is great!  Now that Inflation is influencing the move, Miners may run individually as they are accumulated.  As was mentioned,  VGZ did not drop last week.  Did you say, “I missed the move”?  STocks basing out like this and not breaking down last week have yet to show you their potential gains.  From Dec lows, this is almost 100% and has plenty more in the tank.

NGD – Certainly not ‘too late’ for NGD, which broke higher with strong volume yesterday.   11.5 million in Volume and up 7.58%.

 

 We had a very strong reaction out of the lows to the CPI report. The USD has broken down in the BIG PICTURE as shown in all of my weekend reports. I like to keep the BIG PICTURE in mind during sell offs, to be able to react correctly to rapid short term change or volatility.  That said,  IN all of my weekend reports, I show the Big Picture expectations,  re-read a weekend report if you need to see that.

 I expect this to be a very good year for Miners, and the recent shake out seems to have destroyed the bullish sentiment. I have mentioned so many times in past reports,  SMART MONEY  has been accumulating precious Metals for a major bull run.  They force stop runs to get in. They cause shake outs to change sentiment and to get everyone to bail out at the lows, so they can scoop up positions and sit on them.  They are patient, and often these bases can develop or last for months and even years.  When this long term base breaks out,  the rally should be prolonged, and may be better than the 2016 run.  The charts of  VGZ, THM, and others look good for the big picture, but the ride has not been easy…  We weathered a serious storm last week, was it designed to shake out buyers just before the CPI inflation and put the buyers on the sidelines?  Reacting quickly to change is not always easy, but yesterday was day 4 & a buy signal as triggered after regaining the 10sma.

 Above are a small number of Miners to consider.  I will have others in the next report, especially if we pause or pull back today.  That was a strong move yesterday and follow through is likely to come soon enough, as those on the sidelines desire to get back in and buy that dip.

Enjoy your Thursday trading!

 

 

~ALEX

 

 

URA – I posted this yesterday and mentioned that a Break of the Dome would be considered bullish…

 

URA – It Popped yesterday.  UEC, DNN, URG, UUUU, etc  may be setting up to run.

UEC – This popped above a down trend line. It had a strong run in December.

UUUU – This looks ready to move after a strong run in December and a pull back.

 

ENPH – I have been mentioning ENPH as forming a possible ‘Cup’ here. It dropped 6% yesterday,  but I think this is a ‘buy the dip’ candidate , as long as it remains healthy looking. It MIGHT drop to the 50sma, but it also may not.  I will add 1 final time if it does.

We rode the ENPH October run higher and it was very rewarding, I am actually holding what I thought would be  a full position on this one now, but like I said, I will add on a light dip to the 50sma and possibly sell some as it reaches the Dec peak.

 

SAND – I posted this chart as a low risk entry,  at support.

SAND – I hear some saying  ‘ I missed this whole move’, but this is a buy, not a sell.  This move should not be finished if we are on day 4,  EVEN IF this daily cycle peaked on day 12, that would be 2 more weeks of possible higher price.