Friday Balancing Act
After a quick market review, I was to discuss a bit further the risk reward in front of us in the Precious Metals Sector.
SPX – Expecting a drop into the DCL, we see that the General markets are sliding at this point. Though it looked like they’d recover yesterday, I believe there could be more downside. We will wait for a swing low. I will discuss my thoughts on this further in the weekend report.
WTIC – Oil actually dropped below the trend line and the 10sma….and recovered! That seems like the dcl. Oil had 6 days down/ sideways in Mid January, and now only 4 days down at the end of January, and despite that bearish COT, they can’t seem to hold Oil back. This makes sense for now, but will it last? I have thought of something that I will discuss in the weekend report, it could lead to a deeper drop eventually (an ICL).
NOG – So I noticed NOG spiking up on volume, off of the 50sma, from oversold conditions. I entered it as a low risk trade. My stop is right below that 50sma. A break higher will be bullish.
USD FROM JAN 31 – Watching that 10sma
USD FROM JAN 30- I thought we might drop from day 19 at that 10sma
USD – So far we have dropped from day 19 at that 10sma and it still looks weak. Please read the chart. 88.25 lows still holding.
GOLD LOOKS GOOD, MINERS NEED A BIT MORE UPSIDE TO MAKE IT LOOK MORE BULLISH.
I will point out what looks Good & Bad in this sector, by discussing the current bullish set up, but also what I dont exactly love at the end of the report. This way we can all watch this play out together and make informed decisions along the way. AT THIS POINT, we seem to have a swing low in Gold and that should be bullish. I am invested with a stop below Wednesday lows for Miners.
GOLD – Gold was on day 34, and it looks to be making a swing low here. It broke a down trend and closed above the 10sma. This should be day 1 of a new daily cycle. This is bullish, but I will discuss the concerns at the end of this report.
GDX – GDX did not put in a swing low, and that is slightly concerning, but I will address that in a minute. I like to see MINERS lead the way, but you can see that Miners have been a bit choppier than Gold.
GDXJ – At least we see that GDXJ held support at the 50sma after the Fed Day reversal, and GDXJ reached oversold. We need a break higher above that reversals high ( and the 10sma too).
SVBL – SVBL has been acting quite bullishly and actually bottomed in November. Yesterday it spiked higher and had some pretty good volume, so I decided to buy it at 18 cents at the end of the day. I think I actually pushed it up to 19 cents, it was VERY difficult to buy.
So we see that GOLD seems to have put in some follow through, a swing low looks to be in place, but Miners need more time. IS that always a bad thing? No, and let me show you what I mean.
GOLD OR GLD ONLY HAD A 1 DAY PAUSE IN DEC AT THE LOWS, THEN WENT GREEN
NOTICE THAT MINERS HAD A 2 RED DAY PAUSE AT DECEMBER LOWS, SO MINERS DIDN’T LEAD THEN EITHER
So we still need a bit more time to see what kind of follow through we can get upside, especially in Miners. Gold has put in a swing low, we want Miners to follow that lead. I have discussed the current BULLISH look to our set up in Precious Metals. Below I will discuss a couple of the negatives, but I still lean toward a swing low in Gold & Miners to follow at this point.
Enjoy your Friday and I will discuss things in more detail for the weekend report.
.
~ALEX
.
I want to point out just a couple of things that I see that do seem concerning, but for now it will take a bit more time to see how these things play out. Short term, if the USD bounces, that could hinder things a bit. Along with that, simply so that you can be informed of the things that I am looking at …
.
GOLD – This was concerning last year. Notice how Gold acted correctly, with new highs in JAN, FEB, APRIL, & JUNE. Higher Highs and higher lows. We also have that now with GOLD. Why was that concerning to me?
GDX – Due to the triangle formation in Miners, GOLD took the lead and Miners did not follow. They had a series of Lower Highs and Lower lows. That first run was still a big run, and we need to see more upside in the second daily cycle here to remain short term bullish. A break out to new highs would draw in Buyers, but for now we are stalling.
The inverse correlation of GOLD & THE USD is evident. From the DEC ICL, The USD Dropped and GOLD ran higher. So is the USD going to bounce or continue to drop? And will this affect Gold? This muddies the waters a bit too.
DUST – Personally I can’t say that DUST is bearish looking right now. This looks like a double bottom & the MACD is rising. As DUST dropped, the MACD Flattened & curled higher. I added to JNUG recently, but I have a tight stop, because this is concerning.
So we need to keep an eye on both sides of this equation. It would be a disservice to you for me to tell you that there is only 1 way that this can go. These are some of the things that I am watching, and most are bullish, but we do need to remain alert and aware of any and all of the possibilities to avoid a Bias. No trade is guaranteed. I posted these thoughts in the comments section yesterday…
Finally, I want to discuss some of the Medical marijuana stocks that dropped yesterday.
SPRWF – Dropped down to the 50sma , so far.
OGRMF – This was tough. It started out as 20 cents down, and then crashed or stretched all the way down to the 50sma ( Down 12%). What do I think of this??























GSV getting hammered premarket. Im still carrying it & may get stopped out today it seems
Offering!
Damn,,I had a great trade in that one and held on hoping for a gold rally, should have stuck with my target.
Great report, balanced as usual.
What bothers me about GOLD is that I can see a bear flag forming on the 2 hr chart. I don’t see a similar chart on the USD though. So, that’s good.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vgfAAlkN/
Looking at the Jul -Sept run last year, I pointed to the spot I think we are at now. There was a slam down and recovery on day 34, again we had a slam down and recovery on day 34. I just dont know if that was enough. Usually these drops are real scary. A one day drop and recovery will trigger a lot of stops.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oULxwg0c/
Alex, from your report you are leaning towards the start of a 2nd DC, maybe day 2. You bought a couple miners and added to JNUG Yesterday. IF we get a sell down, you will stop out of JNUG just below Yesterday’s lows at $15.15. Is that correct?
yes-Wednesday lows
What the heck just happened to gold? Big slam down pre-market.
Great question. Wages rose more than expected… which was the main thing everyone was looking at in this report… faster wage growth = greater risk of inflation, which is typically a good thing for gold, right?
Yes. I’m befuddled. I thought this was the result we wanted. Trade seems to be this will keep Fed tightening which will increase USD (it doesn’t but THEY keep trading it that way).
Still in the flag, we need to break above sooner than later.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9v3SHGKh/
USD Spike higher, still in the channel
https://www.tradingview.com/x/wixAvXB6/
Getting ugly now. Breaking the channel……….going to be a rough day
or not…. it coullllld still copy that last leg…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JdPQ7PMt/
That does look close – 3 bumps, a drop and recover
yes please
alex, do you see this movement on the USD hourly as bullish USD? I don’t know what to make of the trend up and then trend down, and know moving higher?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oJVmUw7i/
Nothing like being all in then suddenly you realize you are in the Twilight Zone.
Change is in the air, we are at lows in the 30 yr bond not seen since 2015. It´s a bear market, Bill Gross is right. Probably due for a bounce, but the trend is down.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=w1
Was pretty happy with AAPL after hours… now back below closing… insert sad face
Man, I need to stay off the road.
So at this point I see JNUG at $15.60- 15.65 premarket, so I am not stopped out yet.
Gold hasn’t taken out Wed lows yet, but SO CLOSE
And the USD is not above the 10sma yet , but it is threatening to break above.
I’m holding on at this point
I´m hanging in as well. What do you think of OGRMF, SPRWF, and CBWTF for an entry this morning? Or wait until they get to the 200 MA since below the 50 MA already?
I would wait, maybe for a reversal, because they didnt hold the 50sma and the selling seems a bit panic
This is Golds current attempt at a reversal before taking out the lows ( I would have expected a stop run)
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af924beb863bbf77be685708ffd83a99db40a6f4979678c2d14416cbceaaf3bb.jpg
Ugh, what do I do about these MJ stocks?
I’m wondering the same thing!!
I dont know where you bought them,
but you do always need to know when you will let go ( based on your entry) I the trade goes against you. We need to have mental stops, based on your entry , when you enter a trade, knowing that we can always get in later if it stabilizes.
No one likes to sell at a possible low, but not losing funds is key.
That is why I say “Honor your stops”.
If the selling becomes overwhelming , you want to avoid
getting that point in a trade when you are holding losses and dont feel that you can let go without a bounce.
These are trading with big swings – and when recommending them, it was mentioned that they , as well as Blockchain, are for experienced traders for the reason that they swing so big.
Wise words right there people, hope kills your account faster than anything.
I had some very large gains, and expected the 50sma to act as support, but OGRMF & SPRWF seem to be cutting through . WIll they reverse? I can’t tell, and the 200ssma is far below, so I took 1/2 Profits .
I can always get back in if they stabilize & turn bullish, even if it is a shake out and recovers the 50sma. Even if I had to get back in higher, that is ok- better than this just continuing to drop to the 200sma
Alex will you stop out at 15.15?
I got stopped out
Still own some Miners (GPL, AUMN, etc- lost my jnug)
SOLD MY GPL – I’m just raising cash until I see a reversal that I can believe in for now
My AUMN went green?
one of the nicest things bout buying the laggers , is that they didnt go up much, but theyre not dropping too much either..
although that may be famous last words
lol finally a bid for CANN
gold 1333.90 the stop out area, correct?
pretty amazing how the drop stopped in the area
oh BOT..
how do you abuse me , let me count the ways.
how many hours, in how many days?
Way too many, I can say.
C’mon MBOT, save the day!
GDX still wants to test the 50% retrace at $23, and the 50 MA just below? I didn´t plan on adding to miners today, dont like buying on Fridays bc it seems they are typically higher, but just added some SILJ at $11.08, and a little more to OGRMF. Long term trades.
Somebody wanted out of CBWTF, big volume for only 9:50 in the morning. I will leave that one alone for now.
CBWTF at $1.30??? I bot it…..
I must admit, I really do not like how FNV is breaking down and below the 200 MA.
http://schrts.co/ojjbe4
but the weekly looks better. 🙂
http://schrts.co/rythzg
all of my MJ alerts are going off – I set them weeks ago to buy on a deep correction…..we are here……I am buying
I’m looking at some of these and the volume seems to be picking up on the way down. I have to wonder if the next stop is 200sma – if these are just selling off because the markets are selling off.
Had to cut my triples and take a 10% of port loss. Worst loss in years.
Did you not buy in December?
Yes, but added too much JNUG and USLV last week. I was way ahead last week.
Gotcha – I added too, but I was heavier in dec at the lows. So recent adds went red, former buys stayed green.
Cut as well. It hasn’t been fun (understatement of the year!)
I’ve lost a lot too….hoping when MJ’s turn I can make some back in short amount of time….we’ll see. Keeping my chin up…….
Only 10%? Nice. I’m down way the heck more than that!
I meant to ask, Is ” 10% of Port loss” a typo, or an expression that I wasn’t familiar with?
NEVER MIND!! Portfolio loss- got it
Lot of us in that boat, hope it doesn’t capsize.
For better or for worse I held everything. We’ll see.
MJX hit it´s 200 MA today! http://schrts.co/rythzg
I remember riding OGRMF from $2.50 to $4.50 , and that was a great run, right, Dec to Jan? It just took most of that back in pretty much 2 days. I just dont think I would be buying this falling knife without a reversal or sign of strength.
These just move too quickly
heave ho AG and HL. holding CDE by a rthread
daily Silver now at strong ma support…. make or break time, but probable bounce here whatever the outcome
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/746069ef91798c25b5b370a819d9600eb76b251f6387d19eb8ac36d03a1a03be.jpg
What is that thickest black line? Is that more than 1 MA piled together, or something else?
the black line is just the limit of my charting system its a 407 i think.. they start disappearing after that
Hey SOG
I like what I see…..thanks.
I have GDX in a corrective wave inside (3) of 3 working on a wave ii. At the 50% retracement now so “getting close” imo.
Smart money is still in Equities “that sector” should not be ignored !
SO – I cut a lot of positions today just to clear my head and get an unbiased look at things. I can always get back in if things set up properly.
So looking at UUP, that has very strong volume for 1/2 hr.
Now I have to seriously wonder if Miners & Gold are acting differently again ( As shown above Last year). I need to step back and figure this one out.
I look forward to the weekend report. I had to shed some skin with this move.
Me too – gave a lot of gains backin MJ stocks and JNUG, stepped aside just to see what today brings.
Ok well the silver lining for me here is that it wasn’t just me that gave a lot of gains back. Like you Alex I have cashed in all leverage today and going to wait until there is a clear (and up) direction. Will miss the EXACT bottom but I would rather catch half the move than take a punt and lose half my account value.
Hey Matt
When Gold took out the highs last night, It looked like a swing low in place – so today at least interrupted that thinking. This does feel like how a DCL pr ICL should feel before a reversal, but I wanted to clear my head and get a more unbiased look at things.
And right now I see GX bounciing off of the 50sma. That would be nice if it held and GDXJ recovered.
That stupid USD is the wild card 🙂
By the way, sentiment today is EXACTLY how a DCL should feel! Everyone scared and selling their leverage haha.
DCL feels? This is what all time bear low ICL/YCL feels like!!
Ive given up a lot this week. Even my safe stocks are losing. It feels like there is no safe place right now, so cash it is.
Feel the same way
I’m absolutely getting my face melted off.
I just don’t understand. I went in just after the Dec Fed mtg (the 2 pullback days in the above chart) and added at what should have been the DCL points (now obviously fake-outs) and I’ve got absolutely scalded. Win some, lose some. But I had a pretty good trading plan, played the miners/gold cycle and got destroyed. Hard not to be emotional, this really hurts. I can’t understand why this didn’t work out, the setups were there and we just got it wrong. Period. That simple.
Gold appeared to have a swing last night, but Miners didnt.
GDX just bounced off of the 50sma, so that could be the point where it was dropping to.
GDX & GDXJ did not have a swing low in place this week, so when I entered on that sell off and reversal, I mentioned that it was risky & a safer bet was waiting for the swing to be in place.
I know. I’ve been crazy busy at work, but I stay up late at night until I read every word!!
Right, I wasn’t meaning to imply you didn’t read it 🙂
You were saying you didn’t understand why your plan didn’t work – “The set ups were there…” I was just mentioning that Miners didn’t have a swing low or a confirmed swing low, so the ideal set up wasn’t really there.
I jumped in early on the reversal on Fed Day, and that plan there was ride if it if takes off, stop out of it drops.
That plan worked out, but unfortunately it worked out as the latter one – I got stopped out
I am hoping this wasn´t the 2nd DCL in GDX and it failed, I´m putting the rest of my funds to work today now that GDX is down near its 50 and 200 MAs, and be done with it!
And GDXJ broke down below the 50 & 200, so they need to recover to be a shake out. They are at a 61.8% retrace, and that is acceptable.
I am on the sidelines with leverage right now – cashed in all of it ( from Dec lows to recent adds), until I can see GDXJ regain those MA’s .
Maybe the first daily cycle is just a long one ( 39 days for example) To allow the USD to bounce up above the 10sma and then fade. I get no clear picture right now
AAU & THM Currently Green
I uncomfortably added, will have to step away for a year or two after today. lol
lol
Looking at the charts, I feel that stepping aside is the best move, the way the MA´s have wide mouths to the downside, usually means more pain in the short term. Then again, how I feel hasn´t made me money, only staying the course has ever paid off for me, so looks like I have to take a further beating before it gets better. I´m actually still up on all positions, but sure dosen´t feel like it.
” I´m actually still up on all positions, but sure dosen´t feel like it.”
That is exactly how I felt about OGRMF & SPRWF. My OGRMF ran from $2.00 to $4.50 and I just wanted to ride it for years, but I’m going to have to look for a place to re-enter what I sold.
Gave back too many gains on that one thinking that a tag of the 50sma would be fine, but the last 2 days alone were LARGE candles.
Crazy Sector when it comes to gains and losses
Well, I’m out my triples. Bought some AQ ipo with the cash.
EYES might be ready again to move.
EYES Looks good
Some other biotech – seems to be doing well
TROV, AKER, IBIO, BSPM,
CDE and SSRM are green.
CDE – right off of the 50sma reversal. Nice.
check out AAU
Interesting
CDE … im holding as well… so far as it keeps following this pattern up.from April 2016…
very cool .. just keeping my stop there … im out if it breaks down…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dqjD27hZ/
Not green in my portfolio 🙁
I held onto CDE, heavy weighting and my only silver. Like the chart, but tight leash here on in!
gratifying bounce in CANN – finally!!!
OGRMF & SPRWF bouncing too – SPRWF bounced back to where I sold it at $1.60 : (
refresh
This could become an abandoned baby Monday if it closes as a reversal & gaps open Monday.
I will have been shaken out.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ee4f64ab651640f7fbfe75684f3a50fb234685cd3740acfadebc99c51fabb3f9.jpg
CRYPTOCURRENCIES also took an absolute beating last night. BITCOIN has a pretty sharp bounce right now
Bitcoin was $20,000 – dropped to $8000+ last night
I am watching GBTC closely from now on….no need to buy bitcoin imo, this is a perfect proxy
filled a gap this morning and bounced. Gaps below are around 8 and 5. Let’s see if the y fill too next few weeks!
What´s the premium on GBTC these days?
it is now easy to calculate – the effect of the stock split means 1 share = 1/1000 bitcoin
so today the premium this moment is $12.61/8.929 = 41% premium
Thanks
POTN…I’ve made money and lost money on this one….finally seems to be reversing back up today….call me crazy but I jumped back in…so far so good….might wish I’d gotten more
Hmm, IF gold recovers from here we will have the same slam down to the 13sma as we had during the Jul to Sept run up in 2017. And it would be within 2 days of when it happened last time. See the blue arrows. This would be the low and the beginning of the 2nd DC.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/omU7Xcgt/ https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/11361aadadd1473987a29c04f63b2ebc3f508eda6d24dd057d863c3755f22858.jpg
Nice chart Bill.
But if it doesn’t, the loss I would take would be breath-taking…
Kind of a weird proxy, but I’m looking at the 50 day on SLV. It pretty consistently breaks down with a close below the 50 day. But if it can hold that level, we may be okay.
DOM mentioned EYES- that is a good looking break
Some other biotech – seems to be doing well
TROV, AKER, IBIO, BSPM,
Wow TROV really just took off
just looking at ((sssshhh, you know who))… got a feeling we might be just heading down into a wave 5.v
just a hunch based on certain ma positions, and that shallow descending wedge,… but it may overthrow you out of your stop.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f6e89328aa6e10c3d0e4626f18c5d7d51ad661c4ed2aa02192df95f6164c0605.jpg
Stop it! Crapbot BLOWS!! 😉
ive had some worse blowers of late ..tbh
Did we get shaken out on the JNUG and friends?
I don’t know. I can’t see my screen through all of the tears.
LOL
Jnug I am fine with because of the buy point in December, but the entry that I took on FED WED was a riskier entry simply because we did not have a swing low in place. So today we made a new low. GDX looks good off of the 50sma so far.
We’ll see what happens going forward
silver bouncing/recovering now… hoorah
i want to see CDE close above 8.05 to sound the all clear…….
I will wait for CF…
gold having a second thought about being squashed. something turning?
I grabbed some shares of NUGT and JNUG this morning close to the low to see if I could compensate somewhat for my losses. So far so good. This is based on GDX bottoming at the 200 day, If I get stopped out loss won’t be too big.
GDX at 50sma you probably mean….looks good so far
200 day is 22.90
Oh, OK. When you said you bought based on GDX bottoming at- I noticed that it bottomed at the 50sma today. I do see the 200 just below it.
Alex, in your experience, do the deeper/sentiment cleansing pullbacks on the first DC for miners set up for a more explosive second DC? Or like most things…the answer is, “it depends.”
I would say from the low of a deeper sell off the move would be better, because you also have ‘shorts’ going short thinking it is a break down. Shorts have to cover & Buyers stepping in can give it a good push.
JNUG is now where I sold it 🙂
Makes sense. The elastic band theory.
Now PAAS is fighting to go green on the day.
Check AG, FSM as well. They all have the same recovery pattern. All the while, silver recovered a bit but a bit flatter than the miners. Could be a sign. Or I’m desperate lol.
I thought I was the only one left!
I have them both too…FSM still in the green [one of few in my account] but AG is red.
SOG, CF, this is your sentiment low-close-at-hand indicator. I went to “despondent” this morning. You know what that means…
🙂
I hit “Frustrated’ too , so we must be close
I hit frustrated last week, I’m definitely at the bottom of the curve right now!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7c81d04ecd955c02efb9c68e8619113781698a7c0058acb5d0c44b64412c71e0.jpg
This is great, SOG! Gave me a good laugh….I’m somewhere near the top and bottom with Cason…hahaha
Me too!
Yeah, I think SOG needs to redo his chart and add our names, I feel left out….hahaha 🙂
Hahahaha
My lessons. Not preaching, just processing….buy bigger at ICLs.
Lighten up on approach to daily cycle tops. Rather than buy light at ICL and increase near tops.
I did ok this cycle, but when sentiment is extremely negative its time to buy. When its easy to buy pms….do not buy. The PM bull has always been hard to ride and I’ve done best when my buys are not emotionally easy, but are low risk setups.
I’ll be adding to positions on a swing on the daily chart. I was stopped out if a lot as I added on Weds AH and set mental stops at the lows of that day. Took a chunk of my gains.
Good lessons. Many times the dips that come during a cycle can convince you it’s a good time to buy, like gap fills, etc. But the difference is fear I think. If you’re not afraid (like today), a good chance there is more downside.
Exactly…buying when afraid, although counter intuitive, leads to much better entries. It doesn’t mean they always work, but they put you in nearer to a bottom. Today felt like capitulation. The only question is was it enough? That’s why I’ll wait for a swing.
Fubs,
Capitulation in the general market or Gold?
Well, not exactly – remember since we thought this could be a really good run, we expected a chance of a lighter DCL, that possibility has been in the reports for weeks. Now, that didn’t end up being the case. But we had good cause for buying without extreme fear at one point.
I agree- I usually go all in and then some at an ICL with leverage, but I never recommend that because it could come off as reckless, and whip saws get difficult. I usually CUT LEVERAGE by day 22 or so- and re-enter at the 2nd DC.
After 2 daily cycles, I assess what is happening and the 3rd may be less heavy for sure.
On this ICL, I was less that usual in leverage, because I had too many positions open in other sectors, and I really hate holding too many positions.
Mine is to sell at my targets I let quite a few hit my Mark and I held, and now either gave back a big chunk or stopped for a loss or even.. Old habits die hard,,,hahaha,
Mine, I did the same. Went in just a bit at ICL until we had confirmation and then just slowly built positions. What I ended up doing was just buying the top again instead of “building a position”. I fell for the light DCL and breakout theory. So I added at what could have been the DCL and then was promptly thrashed for doing so. 🙁
General Cannabis Corp. (OTCQB:CANN) today announced that its client, Green Leaf Medical LLC , a leading grower and supplier of medical cannabis in Maryland , has successfully harvested its first crop and has passed all state-required laboratory tests. Now producing an estimated 500-600 pounds of high-quality medical marijuana on a monthly basis, Green Leaf is one of the leading fully approved suppliers in Maryland .
thanks for posting, maybe explains the bounce……
ARNA my only green for the day, ugly on the rest,
CDE not following thru – if it ends here it looks neutral to me for now….CF you think the stop for now should be around $7.7, or give it more rope (if u owned it)?
Well, pull up GPL – I stopped myself out when it broke 50 & 200sma
so I guess I would do the same with CDE.
They dont look bad or ugly or anything, GPL was dropping down toward my buy point on FED DAY, so I just wanted to lock in some gains while I took my recent JNUG purchase as a loss. Then Look around and go from there.
Short answer – 50sma may be where you draw the line
looking at that ugly SLV candle to day….I may punt CDE also
i just dumped most of my CDE
DOW dropped 550 points? How did I miss that?
NASDAQ down 100
MGTI: bouncing right at the 200, not much else to cheer about in the bitcoin/blockchain sector today
Is mentioned yesterday buying this today on my bit coin downside target, swung a nice trade in it today.
AUMN reversed +5% nicely off strong support
..tho admittedly, volume was a bit shyte (a massive 900 shares haha)
I’m looking around and with the
DOW down 600 right now
NAZ down 124
SPX down 55
It’s a bit hard to find a sector that looks OK – Bit it may become a good buying opportunity later
EDIT: I’m not buying anything until this market wide sell off stabilizes. It’s kind of odd
especially considering no flight to quality in bonds, even after the huge selloff recently
And I thought that BANKS would hold up in a rate hike environment, and they seem ‘O.K.’
but the are down too
yeah I just cleared out everything but a little CDE and my CANN and a couple MJs
ready to load for the next PM swing
Like you said earlier, my MJ buy alerts ponging all day, supports nailed and held on many but you had to be quick and nimble to buy into the selling but would have been great trades. I bought a couple as soon as I could mostly above where my buy points were, not sure if it was support or short covering but we’ll see come monday. Sold my AKG at even after being up over 30% at one pont. Was tempted to add but gold looks ugly here. I’m hoping to add my stocks next week .
There will be great bargains to be had on a lot of sectors soon enough.
All I can say is that GOLD should be due for a dcl soon if we are on day 34 or 35.
They can come in around this time, but I want to wait for the Miners to put in a swing . I am hoping that since the miners took a ride down first, maybe they’ll bottom and lead the way higher first.
Precious metals: bit of MACD divergence on the minute charts… well below VWAP, if that is of any comfort.
I’m still holding my unleveraged positions.
APHB maybe winding up for more giraffage.. still at the lows, but above 50 & 200, and pushing to escape the ma net limit at 1.20
(i’m in.. stopout 1.11)
COT report http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_sf.htm
the pros were still pretty short heading int o mid week…..they nailed it again
GBTC going out on the lows
premium 38%
my target is $5.00 in March
next stop the gap at $8.00
I was tempted to buy SCO or DWT, but I think I need to wait.
Oil didnt really sell off today, but it does look a bit toppy- and that COT ,
again Smart money raised shorts
DRIP / ERY doing well, leading the way
Try to have a fun weekend everyone…I am going to start with a some fancy coconut rum pineapple drink!
Bought a few mj stocks and a few others with close stops, lots of miners held right at support and many others broke, but gold looks ugly here so hard to buy, over a weekend hold.
WFC – sold off like everything else, then Janet Yellen Kicked it in the nuts as she left… big after hours drop…
Working on the weekend report. No Doubt- Friday was difficult if you were invested in pretty much anything, especially with leverage. I jumped in with higher leverage at the midday reversal FED DAY. THAT worked for me on the DEC ICL, that did not work for me this week (But I knew that going into the trade, so a stop limits draw down- That doesn’t make it any less frustrating). SO I step aside & re-group and try to see ‘where are we now” THAT is your weekend report.
I want to try to keep this weekend report simple and to the point. I want to be clear, and also unbiased.
I am not a perma bull – but Fridays action did not really cause damage that is abnormal or beyond repair, and I will need to at least point that out to repair the damage that may have been done to anyones confidence going forward. Many think that GOLD is so ugly right now, but refresh for a chart. Honestly, that remains rather beautiful – it is not ugly, but yes, there could be fiurther downside. Especially being leveraged in a sell off is damaging to confidence so I will try to be unbiased and draw out a safe plan going forward.
I hope to have this finished by tonight.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fe68a198ef61c161b161cf2fd791bca3c9d9ec43fa0d7d144f2fadaa64849b9a.jpg
Hey CF, thanks for the mid-weekend post. I agree, chart of Gold isn’t ugly. BUT the chart of GDXJ IS ugly, imo. It’s also down to oversold by multiple measures at this point. So I think that the real issue at hand is that gold (I’m looking at the chart above) could fall some more and still be fine. But junior miners really cannot. They would have to hold while gold retraces or else completely fall apart.
Here’s another great thought-provoking question- with the equity market sell-off, is this just our first real ICL in forever OR did we just watch the parabola break? Too early to tell, but that’s an enormously important item to watch. Will BTFD come back into vogue next week or so we get a “real” selloff??
It’s funny I stalked DOW,SPY for 3-4 months for a dip to go long and now that it’s here buying the first dip was a nasty way to go! In Wave speak, I’ve had SPY in a 5th Wave extension for a significant period of time. Considered by itself, that would tell me we should get at least an intermediate pullback here.
I guess I should have been clearer when I referred to gold as ugly here. I was referring to the 4hr chart it is ugly and ..it looks like it has more downside soon. I wasn’t necessarily speaking long term,,just that I’m not buying gold or miners here yet.
I saw that you said it, but I also got an email from someone saying “With Gold this ugly, I justdon’t have any hope for it to break 2017 highs.”
The report covers it . 🙂
WEEKEND REPORT HAS BEEN RELEASED- ” WHEW!”