Feb 8th – T.G.I.F.

SPX – The SPX dropped 100 points.  My report pertaining to ‘thin ice’ has played out, the volatility remains .   In the past, we have seen ICLs drop down close to the 200sma, and occasionally break right through it.

QQQ – In yesterdays report I used this chart to warn those ‘loading up on leverage’ that those lows could be revisited. Keep position size small until the dust settles.

QQQ – And this happened with the NASDAQ closing down 275 points.

Let’s discuss this sell off further …

NASDAQ –  NASDAQ closed down 275!   And we see the same thing here as we saw with the SPX and the 200sma in the past, so…

NASDAQ – If we got a quick a-b-c down, with the 2 legs of about equal length, it would get us to the 200sma.

WTIC – Oils selling is finally taking place.  This may just sell off into an ICL, but IF we get a bounce,  it could be that we put a dcl in place.  The next daily cycle should be L.T. ( That will a good time to buy SCO or DWT). See the chart.

XLE – Will the 200sma hold? If Oil keeps selling, it may not. This has been a sharp sell off. No trades here yet.

I THINK I HAVE SOME GOOD NEWS

UUP  (for the USD)- I’m using this for volume. It looks like the USD is topping and that would be the L.T. Daily cycle that I want, to ‘top’ the dollar, and ‘bottom’ Gold & Miners.

GOLD – This shows that GOLD looks fine, though Miners may have been caught up in the market selling.  Miners should rally if Gold does. Read this chart, if the USD is topping, Gold looks ready.

This blue candle is a true flat Gravestone Doji – it is a bottoming candle. Basically after a sell off, it opens at the days lows, rallies higher, but then gives it all back.  That makes it look weak, and people think it is bearish, but at the end of a sell off, it is the bottom.

GDX – This is very similar to a flat gravestone doji, but I often call it an ‘ inverted hammer’. This often ends a sell off, and as you very well know, this was certainly a day after day after day sell off. Please read the chart.

This is from a textbook of candlesticks –  showing that the ‘ Inverted Hammer’ is also a ‘ Gravestone Doji’ , often ending a sell off.

As mentioned in yesterdays report, I found a pattern at JUNG $12.90- $13ish  that looked like the lows for GDXJ / JNUGand bought it.  Are the lows in for GDX?  1. Gold has a reversal Candle.  2. The UUP volume is drying up and it is at day 10. 3.  Look for a possible swing low on Friday  🙂   I think that we might finally be there friday or Monday. We may need a group hug after this week. 

After the deeper than expected sell off, I have heard some saying, “This is absolutely Bearish for Miners. There is nothing bullish about the way Miners are pulling back”  and so on.  We need to take a look and see if this sector is salvageable .

AUY –  AUY is actually a very bullish looking pull back (so far), down to the 50sma and back testing the break out again.  I like AUY as a bit of a leader here.

AUY WEEKLY – AUY broke out from a solid base and is back testing. If Gold does reverse & rally, I’ll buy this. See the chart.

IAG WEEKLY – Bear market material? I see a nice 2 yr uptrend. Well, what about that MACD?

IAG WEEKLY – We just need a rally soon to fix that, see the chart below.

GORO WEEKLY– After losing the 50 week MA for most of 2017, GORO just regained it with this ICL, and remains above it. Bearish? Not yet.

NEM – Big sell off, yes.  As NEM broke the 50sma, volume surged, but price didn’t really crash to match that volume. USUALLY I view that as distribution. Lots of  sellers stopping out, but not a big drop because the Big Buyers are grabbing the shares. It could be capitulation lows.  This is a back test too.

GOLD  (Randgold) – Massive volume in this one as it broke the lows and ran some stops.  Randgold has held up bullishly since the 2016 rally.  If it recovers, it could be a ‘stop run’. See the chart.

 Some Miners have experienced more damage than others, but I wanted to show you the ones above, because they still look very bullish, as long as the sell off ends soon.

.

 Conclusion:  The markets have had a volatile week, so any really good ‘low risk trades’ have been a bit difficult to come by.  Patience will pay off, because often these sell off periods do lead to good buying opportunities.  I am thinking that the Precious Metals markets are very close to a bottom  (or there).  Watch for a swing low to form.

.

 Thankfully it is Friday if you are in need of a little rest after this week.  The Markets gave us some very fast movement and high volatility, they pretty much seemed to throw just about everything that it could our way.  The good news? This kind of volatility often leads to opportunities once the dust settles.

.

 In this report, I am pointing out that basically with the Precious Metals,  Time should be up.  Gold looks fine and should be ready to turn higher, and the USD seems to be fizzling out.  While some Miners got caught up in the market selling, they could make up for that if the sector turns upward.  Miners can exaggerate moves in both directions. GDX has a Gravestone Doji after a prolonged period of selling.  Let’s see what Friday can do.

.

 I have to admit that I was wrong when I expected The Miners to hold up as well as Gold did.  I had reviewed the Rally out of the DEC 2015 ICL and Dec 2016 ICLs and saw that Miners simply went sideways into the first dcl at that time. Selling them often left people behind without a pullback to re-enter.   Now we’ll see how they react when the lows are finally in for Gold, again I think we are CLOSE or there now.

 I believe is still possible that with ‘short covering’ and ‘buyers’ stepping in, we can get the move that we were hoping for in the next daily cycle, as seen here. If not, I would think that we should at least get a move to the upper orange barrier.

I really hope that Gold , Silver, and the Miners move higher Friday, the last trading day of the week.   Enjoy your Friday trading, and especially your upcoming weekend!  Do something that you really love to do,  get out of the house, have some fun, spend the time in a relaxing and refreshing way if you can. Then we’ll be fresh and ready to attack the trading week on Monday.  Happy Friday.

.

~ALEX 

.

 3 hours of Shoveling slush for my parents, days of crazy manic markets, etc etc – You get a report released tonight, because I need to sleep in tomorrow until  8 a.m. Eastern.  See you in the A.M.  and I better wake up to GOLD HIGHER!!