Feb 13th – Still Waiting?

My weekend report was extremely detailed as to what I feel we are seeing. I am going to try to keep todays report a bit more simple, since we have only had 1 trading day since that weekend report.   The Theme Picture?  What are we looking for, and for some more conservative traders, what are we waiting for…

SPX #1 – Please read the chart. Using cycles, the safer add point is after confirmation since volatility has been so high ( in the blue circle).

SPX #2 – It may have looked like a swing low last week, but you can see how it had no follow through. Fridays reversal found some follow through Monday, but the General Markets could remain a bit jittery. People buying this reversal ( Ahead of a confirmed swing low) will need to simply use a stop to protect funds.

UUP  – So far,  the USD is still acting as I expected, and it could roll over and drop to a dcl, which would allow Gold to make a run to a 2nd daily cycle peak.

WTIC #1- Oil rallied and gave up the gains, but did not break below Fridays lows. Oil is late and could have a dcl here, but is it an ICL? I am expecting further downside with that COT- how we get it remains to be seen  ( I’m not playing this long side)

WTIC #2 – I am thinking that we get more downside after a final daily cycle runs its course, as noted in the weekend report.

XLE – Also the XLE, OIH, and XOP reversed bit had no follow through yet too.  That also happened last week.  I am not going long this sector, but may SHORT OIL if it tops and rolls into an ICL.  That will take time to fulfill.

GOLD – Gold put in a swing low on Friday, but met resistance at the 10sma. It is late in cycle timing, so this should be the DCL. It really needs follow through soon, in my opinion,  since the volume was so light on Monday and the lows remained close by.

SILVER- Silver has an unconfirmed swing low now too.

GDX – We saw a nice move higher, and a swing low  (unconfirmed) on Monday.  The push higher out of the lows is similar to the first day in Dec out of the lows.  NOTICE that after that big day in December,  it paused and was red for 2 days.  If we see that again,  it is normal, not anything to worry about on its own.  A break above the 10sma is what we want to see next.

GDX –  If we do ‘pause’,  it can remain bullish and you may see something like this, for example. Should you be buying without a confirmed swing low?  I mentioned that decision in the weekend report.  1. Start small and add with confirmation? 2. Just buy , but you would use a stop and Honor it? etc.

 This is the SPX and you could liken it to GDX now.  Why?  Last week it had a swing low unconfirmed as shown, but notice that it had no follow through on the first day after the reversal, and then…

SPX  – It collapsed to a new low & reversal last Friday.  SO we are cautious with GDX,  but GDX had a stop run type reversal and follow through Monday. It may be trying to stabilize and short covering could help to push it higher.

I wanted to just step back and see if the bigger picture remains normal or has it turned ‘horrific’?  Let’s just view a few Miners…

AG – Similar to 2015, it is breaking to new lows, but it remains bullish. It was near $20 a year and  1/2 ago, buying at $5 looks great, but waiting for a break out above the purple upper line is very reasonable and maybe less nerve wracking. Buying here with a TIGHT stop works too.

CDE – At the lows of this ongoing consolidation.

HMY #1 – HMY put in a rather strong pop Monday, and the interesting part is that it did not sell off and break the lows last week.

HMY #2 WEEKLY – So I took a look at the weekly and found this to be a rather bullish looking set up already.  It continues to make higher lows in this multi-month base.

SAND – You may remember this “BUY” set up in December when the ICL was in place for Gold.   It did have a nice run, but did SAND hold up or fall apart?

SAND – Well, Our SAND trade seems to have back tested the break out. Unfortunately if someone bought the break out in December & still owned it, they were about break even Friday and now up again after Monday.   For any that wished they owned it,  it is back in the $4’s.

So Monday we saw positive follow through to give a little breathing room off of the lows in Miners. I’d like to see that continue as more buyers step in and shorts feel the need to cover.

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If we see a ‘pause’  or even a slight pullback, it may just end up looking a bit like this, it could be an opportunity to add or enter, with a stop at Fridays lows. We’d like to see a vreak through that 10sma, but that may act as resistance- we’ll see.

It is difficult to post “Stock Set Ups” as buying opportunities in the General Markets or Miners, with the recent sell off & continuing volatility in that area.    We are still near the lows and stocks haven’t really started ‘trending’  out of the lows, so it may be best for some to be patient and wait for more reliable set ups to form.  It has been  VOLATILE, and that can knock you out of positions, as we saw take place last week.   If you are experienced and wish to trade with your own experience, style , and ability-  Volatility can offer some unique opportunities and some low priced buy points on dips.

Enjoy  your Tuesday trading as we continue to watch how this recent volatility plays out. I do think that we are seeing the lows form in Miners for now, we are looking for more follow through over time.

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~ALEX

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Add on a dip? Or just buy here?  I think this has more upside, let me show you what I like about it.

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ENPH  10:13 a.m.  Monday – One stock that I was recommending in the comments on Monday was ENPH , as shown here. It did NOT break down with the markets. It crossed back above the 50sma here, and had growing volume,  so I added to my current position.

ENPH 11:44 –  I was emphasizing the potential and even though it was up 11%,  it looks like it can run much higher.

ENPH Weekly – It closed up 16%, but this has excellent potential , if you consider this base.  I have posted this as a buy before and even rode that Oct-Nov run higher. It found support at the 30 week MA, this remains a bullish set up despite the recent market sell off.