WEEKEND REPORT

There is an old saying designed to help us avoid being fooled into believing that something is anything other than it really is. Maybe you are familiar with that saying, it goes like this…

“If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, it must be a duck” 

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I think that this saying can also apply to a Bull too, or even when it comes to a Bull Market run.  Whether it is short term or longer term,  a Bull Run should be treated as one until it no longer looks like one. Another helpful saying in this regard has been , “Never short a Bull market”.  Let’s discuss a number of Bull Markets on the run here…

 

SPX – Well nothing has changed here and this is a weekly chart. This is a bull market and anyone trying to short this has been trampled down.

SPX – I have recommended just using a trailing stop to be able to continue riding this Bull ( UPRO, UDOW, TQQQ, ETC), and with these shallow sideways pull backs, the ride continued to another week of new highs.

 

Let’s take a look at the DJIA too…

 

DJIA –  It still looks  like the ascent is increasing and that can really pack on the gains. Please read the chart though…

DJIA – This run can go on for weeks and even months, but if it gets too parabolic, it eventually drops very sharply later.

WTIC – Oil broke out beyond my expectation of possible $60-$62. Believe it or not, the COT ‘smart money shorts’ grew again.  Honestly, we are deep in the timing for an ICL, and a pull back is due, but Oil looks to be putting in another right translated daily cycle.

Conclusion for Oil:  With this huge base, it looks like Oil is just going to run straight back to former highs, BUT I MUST EXPECT A PULL BACK FIRST.  That may be a great ‘buy the dip ‘ opportunity. Are we seeing inflation?

 

NATGAS – After last weeks sharp drop, we had a strong , high volume week for Natgas. It may finally be ready to leave this choppy base too. Please read the chart.

 

USD

 

USD – I drew the USD as having a dcl on day 24.  Go back and count other daily cycles for the USD, and you will see that they usually average closer to 20 days,  not like Miners 30 days, or Oils 50 days. If this just rolled over with a day 5 peak & this is day 8- we have a ways to go on the down side.  Please read the chart.

 

USD IMPORTANT – The USD dropped below the ICL/YCL from early September on Friday. THAT is a Failed intermediate cycle and can lead to much lower prices over time. So whether we get a dcl Now and it bounces, or whether my first call was correct,  this is a weak USD, and that bodes well for Precious Metals.

USD CHART  FROM SEPTEMBER –  If you have been with me for a long time, you know that this is exactly what I have been expecting, and in turn, I have expected the BULL in Gold to continue higher. Back in September I pointed out that in the long run,  the USD can drop as quickly as it climbed. THE USD put in a YCL, bounced above the 10 weekly MA, and now is trapped back under it again.

Usually the weekend report is just a big picture review, to give us an adjusted and proper perspective after a week of reports basically focused on the day to day action.  This weekend, I will mix a little of both in this sector too, because we have a lot more to talk about.

 

GOLD – I wanted to call a dcl in GDX (you’ll see why), but Gold prevents me from doing it. Here we see with Golds small dip closing  above the 10sma as a normal 1/2 cycle low, and we are on day 21. This CAN peak next week or it may run higher for 2 weeks. That is all acceptable timing-wise.

GOLD – So I stay focused on the big picture.  Some are asking me if the intermediate cycle peaked yet, they recall last years run from Dec to early February in miners and the run was done. No, it has not peaked yet, as you will see.

I look at this huge base, and I know that the USD just failed its Intermediate Cycle, and I see good things in the big picture. Higher lows in Purple for 2017 are bullish. This looks like a Giant base and recovery mode.  🙂

 

SILVER – Silver is on the verge of a major break out, and when silver & silver stocks run, they usually run QUICKLY. NOW would be a good time to own some silver stocks. ( I will discuss this later)

SILVER – In 2003 when Silver got above the 200 weekly sma, buyers loved it. We seem to be at that point again.  Last week I discussed buying CDE, HL, FSM, etc. because they popped before Silver has.  This is what I am looking at.

 

GDX – Again, I wanted to call this a short daily cycle and a dcl, because it was closing for 3 days below the 10sma, and I could draw a tighter trend line if I wanted.  Since GOLD DID NOT close below the 10sma, I will go with Golds chart for the cycle count.  Therefore, I see this as a 1/2 cycle low.

GDX – I have been pointing out as a guide, this dip still looks similar to what we had in July, and you can see that the 2nd rush higher was better than the first. Notice, however, that after a burst higher from that pink box it did drop again & then run. We may not go straight up from here, that is just how bulls will try to kick you off. I still expect higher price in GDX / GDXJ.

JNUG – I have owned JNUG since the 13th of December. I added along the way when the ICL was confirmed. I did add again last week because the USD failed at the YCL and I expect higher price over time regardless of short term wiggles.

 

GDX WEEKLY AS A REMINDER – I posted this on JAN 10.  To me, this move is the start of the intermediate cycle, and I monitor it daily, so I can ride my positions without losing sleep.  EVEN BEAR MARKET RALLIES  (in Blue) Run longer than this one has.

GDX – I expect $26 at the least, but if this is to form a giant Cup like I expect it too,  we have a long way to go.

 

I’ll call this Good news / Bad news – but really it is good news.

 

GDX –  In our strong 2016 run shown here, notice that the pull backs in GDX left people behind  waiting for a deeper dip. It was important to avoid jumping in & selling, buying & selling. You would be left behind.  On this chart, where would you comfortably enter if you sold everything early?  These eventually became   choppy times, but still ended up leaving behind a series of  higher lows in feb & march.

JNUG – The bad news is that with that same choppy sideways market, even with higher lows in GDX/GDXJ – JNUG didnt tack on gains for weeks.  THIS MEANS that if you just bought JNUG and we see this choppy run higher, it may do nothing but pop & drop for over a month again.  The 2nd daily cycle then doubled it.

 

GDX WKLY   (OUR BIGGER PICTURE ) –  IF IT LOOKS LIKE A BULL AND WALKS LIKE A BULL, TREAT IT LIKE A BULL. This is NOT out of the question if we have a 6 month run like the 2016 run.

P.S.  The USD just failed its Yearly Cycle Low. 🙂

 

BREAK IT DOWN – 

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A BULL AND WALKS LIKE A BULL, TREAT IT LIKE A BULL

 

NEM – Well NEM certainly doesn’t look bearish, it is already breaking my target of last Septembers highs by forming a cup.  As a major component of GDX, this has, no doubt, helped GDX.

NEM WKLY BIG PICTURE – Will a strong 5 week move like this just die? We need another target, and NEM could now run out of this 1+ year base and reach the 2016 highs over time!

GG – Well look at that!  GG also formed a giant cup. It went from weak and ugly in December to very strong now.  As one of the major components of GDX,  there is no doubting that this has helped GDX too.

GG – The 1st target has been reached, so look at the bigger picture.

 

ABX has some catching up to do, but it did run from $13.25 to $15.25 and looks ready to go even higher.  This is also a major component of GDX, so if we need a bit more upside in GDX,  ABX may be the one to help it along.

 

CDE has been in 5 reports recently. I think that Silver is going to break out & run higher, and Silver stocks should accelerate in my opinion.  Let’s review just a couple of my recent CDE charts…

 

CDE – JAN 2 had CDE under $8 but breaking above the 50sma as a buy.  This could double by getting back to 2016 highs.

 

CDE JAN 11 – Last week the smaller picture had CDE breaking upward from a base before Silver even moved.  I discussed how these stocks (remember the AUY charts) often get back to more recent September highs, forming a cup. It was a buy.

 

The BIG PICTURE FOR CDE – Could CDE put in another run like the 2016 run? If Silver breaks out & runs, I do believe so.  That could be a double or even a triple if it does. This summer if CDE is at $22, we will all wish we bought it now at $7 or $8.

I have been discussing HL as a Silver Stock with great potential too. Let’s review just a couple of my charts …

 

HL DEC 8 – Before the FED MTG, I was prepping our minds to see the potential in some Miners. HL had such a solid run in 2016 and the pull back was a normal 61.8% going into the FED Day, possible ICL.  HL was in the $3.50 area.

 

Last week HL was near $4.00 –  I pointed out that Silver stocks were POPPING on a day when Silver was down.  THAT is bullish and it was no longer overbought, so this was pointed out as a buy along with CDE which also Popped.

HL THE BIG PICTURE – This is an entirely different way of looking at HL. Do you see the potential, especially when we have Silver looking ready for a major break out and the USD failing. The USD can bounce, and we can get a DCL in a week or two,  but you may want to buy this before then if you dont own any silver stocks.

SAND – The BUY was near $4.50

SAND – It ran to $5.30 and a back test would be another good entry

THE BIG PICTURE FOR SAND –  This is still a buy.  Doesn’t this help you to see that the recent run in SAND is tiny compared to what could happen over time. We are seeing a bull run in Steel stocks, Copper Stocks, Aluminum stocks, and when these Miners get going, they usually out perform industrial metals.

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BVN WKLY ( Thx to Ray for an email reminding me of BVN) –  Is this a bear market stock? This is a beautiful chart and notice that it did NOT break down to lower lows over the past year. $3- $16 and a normal pull back & consolidation,  this is a steady Miner. This one is already at $15 again. Ready to break out & run.

IAG WKLY – Is this stock still in a bear market sell off ?  I see a bullish Cup & Handle at the 2016 highs.

 

Conclusion for Miners:

 Can we talk for a moment?  🙂 In several reports I have tried pointing out that “The first 2 daily cycles out of an ICL are where good gains can be made, EVEN IN BEAR MARKET BOUNCES”.  You dont want to over trade, jumping in & out, unless a stock goes bad on you.  I’ve mentioned that you can add on the dips, but  “I’m not selling, even over the long weekend, because we are in the first daily cycle”.  I may even just add on dips.  Charts like the one below were used to help you to see this rally as small so far, compared even to bear market rallies.  Conclusion? I see more upside to come in the second daily cycle too.

 Traders will trade as they see fit, and that is great, but for others just trying to buy with confidence and hold?  Now’s not the time to let others scare you out of some good percentage gaining trades going forward, especially if we are still in the first daily cycle out of an ICL.  A reasonable stop will protect you.   And as mentioned in the past, following other traders ‘comments’, can cause you to lose position and find it difficult to know when to get back in. My reports have called for buy & hold for a while, add on dips if comfortable doing so.

So I hope that this weekend report helps us to see that the wiggles in day to day trading are part of what a Bull does as it tries to scare people off by bucking and rocking around. The bigger picture looks bullish to me.

BIG PICTURE VIEW : We have endured a very long consolidation period of base building in many of these miners through 2017, but by picking out the ICLs, we have even made money at consolidations periods when most traders will not make money  (consolidation choppiness).  Miners made higher ICL’s (lows) through 2017.  That period of sideways choppy bucking may be ending, and the next run higher could be excellent if the USD continues to roll over. My analysis says that that is what we will see in the early part of this year.

 The USD FAILED:  It just broke below the ICL & YCL of September 2017. If it bounces and Gold drops to a dcl in the next 2 weeks,  THAT MAY BE YOUR NEXT SAFER BUYING OPPORTUNITY for the 2nd daily cycle if you jumped out following someone in the comments and didn’t know how to get back in.  I will cover this market in the daily reports, so as things continue to unfold, you will be informed.

 

Thanks for being a chartfreak with me, and enjoy your long weekend!

 

~ALEX

 

WHAT ABOUT THIS PULL BACK IN MJ STOCKS?

In a Bull Run, I have taught my readers in the past that I always anticipate the normal return to the 10 weekly ma when a stock gets stretched up too high.  In some cases,  they CAN stay over stretched as they simply allow the 10ma catches up, but right now we are seeing an almost sector wide pull back.  Let’s take a look…

 

OGRMF – You can see that all of the former choppiness, was a return to the 10 weekly ma area.  That is bullish action.

SPRWF – The weekly SPRWF chart shows a similar climb …

TWMJF – At times an over-extended stock that is very strong will just go sideways rather than drop all the way back down, as seen with TWMJF.

CNBX – SO CNBX is still well above the 10 ma. It can drop further next week…

CNBX – Or if we are seeing something similar to last year,  it may go sideways for a bit too, before continuing higher.

 

Late request by email.

 

AG WEEKLY –  It is still the same in the bigger picture,  though ‘news’ has caused selling. Daily Friday sold off hard and recovered as a reversal type candle.  That may have been the capitulation low and buyers stepped in to accumulate.    It broke out and is going sideways on a weekly .

Question was, ‘Will it sell off deeper when the Miners drop into a dcl?”.  That is impossible for me to know.  The selling may be done with fridays capitulation type reversal. BUyers look to have started to buy that dip, accumulating .  It could just be waiting for more buyers to rally.  The 2nd daily cycle may push it higher.  The only active advice from me is that if you are still holding,   use a stop.  If you dont like ‘waiting’ for it to get its act together,  sell and move funds to another area.