January 28th – The Weekend Report

/143 Comments/in /by

 We rode out some choppiness this week, so the weekend report can act as that  ‘beacon in the storm’ that guides us along.  Let’s review our Markets…

 .

 

SPX WEEKLY #1 – As expected, the General Markets are accelerating and this weekly chart shows the last 4 weeks as strong green weeks. A trailing stop has been very effective for those riding this ‘long’.

 

 

SPX WEEKLY #2 – Please read the chart, this could be a parabolic future blow off top in action. A straight up move is unsustainable after a while. We need a pull back sooner than later.

DJIA WEEKLY – Please read the chart as we’ve now  seen 11 of 12 of the last months close green. Jan is not over, but it will end Wednesday and this month was the longest weekly candle – I doubt it will go red.

 

WTIC COT – What can I say? Smart money added to shorts again, and Oil dipped for a bit, however…

WTIC DAILY – That was a short lived dip & Oil climbed higher again.  We MIGHT Have even seen a dcl with the trend line breaking. Please read the chart.  The last big pull back was $59 to $54 & then sideways.

 

WTIC WEEKLY – I expected a bigger pull back with that COT, but Oil just marches on.

Conclusion:   Oil has been due for a deeper drop  (ICL), but it has continued higher after smaller pull backs.  I stopped trading energy heading into the end of 2017,  when I switched to Blockchain, Medical Marijuana stocks, and started really focusing on a Low ( ICL) due in the MINERS. It is now difficult to enter unless one looks for an energy stock that is not extended or near support and absolutely uses a stop. You may want to raise stops as price rises.  I personally am still focused on Miners and am invested in Medical marijuana stocks from September, so I have as many ‘positions’ as I like to hold at once.

 

3 NEW USD CHARTS

 

USD WEEKLY  –  I have discussed the big picture for the USD as a break down after that ICL bounce.  I also have pointed out that selling from Jan 2017 to Sept 2017  selling was fairly steady, with no visible ICL.  It could happen again. Please read the chart.

USD WEEKLY – Notice that even straight line moves have ‘bounces’ or DCLs however, so we could get another back test as shown if this is an ICL forming …

 

USD WEEKLY – A weaker bounce out of a ‘dcl ‘ might simply look like this and could cause a dip in Gold  ( I will discuss a dip in Gold next) .

USD WEEKLY – This was in Fridays report showing how the selling might unfold, similar to Jan through Sept.

USD – And I pointed out that if we get a dcl,   it may just do this,  and if it did…

GOLD – Golds dip could match the USD bounce.

 

4   NEW GOLD CHARTS

 

 

GOLD DAILY MOVEMENT –  When looking for a dcl, you look for a trend line break.  I believe that we do have that, as shown at blue arrows.

 

GOLD DAILY CHOPPINESS –  On stockcharts, which is the charting service that almost all of us use for  past dcls, we did not close below the 10sma.   So IF we do drop below that 10sma, we are on day 31 starting Monday and a dcl could come at any time as an extremely right translated daily cycle. It remains very bullish.  (Ignore where I wrote we could get a dcl on day 30, I was thinking we had day 29 Friday, Friday was day 30).  EVEN A DIP LIKE THIS DOES NOT REMOVE BULLISHNESS.

 

GOLD WEEKLY  – GOLD looks ready to break out from a very bullish looking base.  Do you remember when OIL just broke out, and the COT was Dead Against it running higher?  It just kept running higher, so Gold is expected to do the same on a break out. Upside possibilities over time are very impressive after this break out occurs..

 

GOLD WEEKLY  –  Even if it paused, dropped, or got choppy as shown,  this is still a BULLISH set up.

 

SILVER WEEKLY – This Big Picture remains the same as the last 2 weekend reports. A break out is very bullish.

 

SILVER WEEKLY – See the chart ( Sorry, I meant to write that the year 2016 was the first major break out)

 

GDX WEEKLY FROM FRIDAYS REPORT – This current choppiness is NOTHING  compared to what we saw in 2016, and who didn’t LOVE that run?

GDX DAILY – I have been pointing out for weeks that mid point choppiness is normal.  I admit that ‘real time’ it gets uncomfortable, but Thursdays dip shown here, caused no real damage.

 

GDX – We rode on some choppy waters Thursday, but this chart doesn’t look like anything damaging, especially since we have been discussing ‘choppiness’ in the short term.

 

GDX  FRIENDLY REMINDER – Please read the chart of the 2016 run higher

 

So when it gets choppy, we have to look back to the ‘lighthouse’ – the Big Picture Weekend reports, and re-focus on that big Picture.

 

GDX WEEKLY BIG PICTURE – Please read the chart, and notice that this weeks Thursday choppiness hardly shows up in the big picture.

 

THE GDX WEEKLY ‘EVEN BIGGER PICTURE’ – This could really get crazy if we break out from this base and just start trending higher. ‘Trending higher’ out of a long consolidation is a money maker…

‘Trending higher’ out of a long consolidation is a money maker…

 

STLD WKLY –  I posted this bullish set up in October of a sideways consolidation that STLD looked like it wanted to break out of.    I want to point out that these Sideways Moves are bullish set ups, and though they may take time & get choppy,  Money is to be made on break outs.  I had a target of $50+ from the $32 lows.

STLD WKLY – STLD hit $48 this week, and it is likely not done.  Trending higher out of a long consolidation is a money maker.  It was a choppy ride on the daily, and you can see some of the drops on this weekly, but it starts trending higher.   Picture  GDX doing this in future weeks.

 

And if I showed you this consolidation,  wouldn’t you agree that it looks Excellent, despite daily wiggles?  Trending higher from here would be great, and …

That chart above is CDE WEEKLY now.

 

That is your BIG PICTURE WEEKEND REPORT.   If times get Choppy during the Mid-week, please revisit these weekend reports.  If nothing else, they can give you another way to view things, and you can examine for yourself  if anything Big really did just happen with recent choppiness.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and thank you for being a Chartfreak here with me!

 

~ALEX

 

“Sometimes our Big Splashes are just Ripples in the pool” ~ Neil Peart

143 replies
  1. Aniket
    Aniket says:

    Alex,

    Nice report as usual. Look at that weekly RSI on SPX, it is in uncharted territory. It’s never been here in the history of stock market. Hmm…

  3. Peter
    Peter says:

    Hi Alex – any advise on entering new long positions in general markets? I’ve been on the sidelines most of Jan. considering where we are in the daily and intermediate cycle. Should I wait until after the FOMC meeting or early Feb? Enter now?

    Thanks,
    Peter

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I honestly don’t like to recommend entering positions that are extending, usually it isn’t a style of trading that pays off risk / reward wise most of the time.

      Can they go higher? Yes. Can the drop sharply at any time? Yes.

      Either you enter and use a tight stop that trails it, or you wait for a pull back , maybe to the 10sma.

      I have seen people jump into an extended trade with a fear of missing the run, and get run over on a pretty sharp pull back when it tops, so if you enter a runaway move without a pull back first, you must use a stop.

  4. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Alex, I actually got an email notice about the report being ready and I’ve never gotten them before …..so something must be working! 🙂

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yes, The other system set up is an automatic alert & goes out automatically as soon as I post a report, but it has been broken for 2 days ( Not sure why).

      We had to send out a manual email alert, so we just blasted everyone on our email list.

  7. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Way too early to comment on pre-market movement, but the USD is climbing and so is GOLD & SILVER a little bit.
    That just feels better that the USD rising & Precious Metals selling off 🙂

    It is light evening trade, but just thought I would mention it

    • Ralph Wiederzane
      Ralph Wiederzane says:

      Thus far, at 7:15 am, miners are hardly down. Perhaps your idea of a muted decline or sideways action in miners, while gold corrects, is going to play out. Ideally, I would like to see a gold pullback today and with follow through weakness at the open tomorrow to buy into, but I don´t always get what I want.

  8. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    Thanks, CF. I´m wondering if this short term pullback in gold and miners might play out like it did in December, with the low of the dip occurring just ahead of the FOMC decision? I still have some funds to put to work, so will add into a Tuesday dip if it occurs.

  9. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    Bond futures continuing the cliff dive, making new lows this morning. Somebody dosen´t have much faith in a dollar bounce.

  10. Crystal
    Crystal says:

    Thanks “captain” for helping us stay calm as you chart us through choppy waters.. There’s the Fed Reserve tanker headed straight for us tomorrow and Wednesday. Though this is the last time we will see Yellen at the helm, and don’t expect nothing more than formalities, the markets are still conditioned to react every time they meet.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yeah, you can always rely on those FOMC meetings to make the water choppy.
      I was hoping for a dip into Wednesday and then the start of the 2nd leg higher, but you never really know 🙂

  11. Peter
    Peter says:

    Northern Dynasty Minerals: U.S. EPA maintains restriction on Alaska mine project
    6:46 AM ET, 01/29/2018 – Reuters
    ** Canadian miner’s U.S.-listed shares fall 21.6 pct to $1.20 before the bell

    ** On Saturday, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said it maintained restrictions on the proposed Pebble copper and gold mine project in southwest Alaska’s Bristol Bay region

    ** Pebble mine is the world’s biggest undeveloped gold and copper project located in the world’s largest sockeye salmon fishery and has drawn opposition from environmentalists, some native groups and sport fishermen

    ** Northern Dynasty said it filed its first application for a permit for the widely opposed project in salmon-rich southwestern Alaska on Dec. 21

    • Peter
      Peter says:

      Now NAK’s press release on Friday makes sense where they said everything remains on track. It seemed like a pointless release, but they clearly knew investors wouldn’t like the EPA saying they “maintained restrictions” on the mine.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          I was just thinking that someone asked me about NAKs chart a while ago , and I couldnt quite remember who. I do remember looking at the chart and mentioned
          that I didnt like that the 50sma was now curling downward and it looked to be breaking down. I think you said, “Should I sell or hold a bit longer?” And I mentioned

          ‘Its giving no real reason to hold on with the 50sma curling down … ‘ and maybe mentioned that it is heading for the 200sma.

          It’s odd, the chart was starting to show a real lack of strength and it always seems like ‘someone knows something’ before it hits the news.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            I did, but not for any major reason at that time – I was planning on buying it back later. I only sold it because I had too many positions at one time ( 15) and it was just going sideways after crashing through the 50sma.

            I was expecting it to drop to the 200sma and was looking to re-enter if it seemed to stabilize on the 200 ( but it dropped under & rode along the under side of the 200sma for almost a week. I was going to buy it back when it recovered…

            This MIGHT be a buy though, if it is an exhaustion gap down, and then they come out with some news that causes buyers to step in. That EPA quote said something like until the safety of the area can be guaranteed, the project would not go forward. As NAK files for permits, they will claim that they can guarantee the protection of the environment and may get some permits. It seems to be news driven in both directions lately.

            I need to watch it and be patient.

          • Peter
            Peter says:

            Thanks. I’m thinking it may be a buy too. Please let me know if you lean towards buying it. I may add.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            So far, it is just sitting in the same spot and volume is rising, so it may have accumulators buying while sellers sell out, and that could be an exhaustion.

            The most bullish thing would be a gap open tomorrow that doesnt fill. I would buy that

        • Cason
          Cason says:

          I sold weeks ago, just got tired of it, can always re-enter but it wasn’t doing what I expected it to do anymore…

    • miller
      miller says:

      Yeah, they are getting hammered in premarket,,if they overreact to the downside, might be decent bounce play to be had today.

  13. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Well, they fixed the auto-email alert & it promptly recognized that I published this weekend report , so it sent out an auto email alert .
    Sorry about that 🙂

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          It may or it might not sell off further, it could hold at the 34 sma.
          I was just thinking that I want to reduce risk by holding Canadian companies in this sector.
          Any surprise announcements by Jeff Sessions seems to hinder the US Companies. Some may do very well, and if they do I will look for a place to enter, but when I bought TBPMF, I needed to let one go, and that US company was the one to let go at this point.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Longer term, starter position, just in case it keeps moving higher / sideways / higher.
        It does appear to be extended on the weekly chart.

        If you use a 20sma, it could drop there on the daily too.

        but longer term the 1 year wkly chart speaks for itself as Bullish.

  19. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    So far I´m pleasantly surprised how my miners are hanging in there, and MUX is only down a penny. 🙂

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Well Hello Bill – kind of a surprising question, I guess. How long have you been here, 3 years?

      In the past I’ve recommended any of the following when they were low risk set ups …..FB, MSFT, CMCM, WIFI, TWTR, YELP , YNDX, AMD, JBLU, HA, TOL, KBH, CY, FNSR, CGIX, VSTM, BAC, HBAN, JPM, ETC ( No one cares for the banks, they move too slow) , MYSZ, OGRMF, SPRWF, ( Blockchain RIOT, SSC, MGTI , etc are not commodity) RENN, KNDI, VJET, CSIQ, FSLR, NVDA, XBI, LABU, TQQQ, UPRO, Tons of Biotechs, GRPN, VIPS, DDD, NQ, S, JRJC, HJP, WNDW, JKS, SPWR, XONE, many shippers, but they may be considered commodity since they are related to oil, etc etc etc .

      And, You also know that right now we have an ICL in Miners in December that we were focusing on and we have been waiting for this. We are well off of the lows of Mid December, but are currently experiencing a pull back.

      If I decided not to cover Miners at the Dec ICL , who would be the first to ask me ” Why aren’t we covering Miners? They’ve been running since December!”

      • Bill
        Bill says:

        LOL, I shouldnt have said commodities, I don’t know how to say it? More mainstream SP500 stocks. Bitcoin I consider as risky as MJ and GOLD stocks. We all know how risky Pharma can be and forget shippers. I’ve been here a while, I don’t remember too many of the others. B, MSFT, CMCM, WIFI, TWTR, YELP , YNDX, AMD, JBLU, HA, TOL, KBH, CY, FNSR, CGIX, VSTM, BAC, HBAN, JPM, ETC

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          ok, so sounds like you mean the slow & steady? Many of the tech stocks only look easy to ride, they also get choppy. Take a look at BAC, JPM, HBAN. When I mentioned a break out of a cup – they were buys, but they do tend to be a bit boring.

          Usually when I post main stream safer stocks, that tend to go sideways and make slow steady gains, but still have pull backs along the way, no one remembers them ( including you as stated above) , because they are boring and the group often wants the faster gainers.

          There have been times when I specifically called out a set up as a long term hold and they do trend higher, but they are rather boring in their gains.

          And as I’ve pointed out many times in reports, in hindsight, bullish charts look great & you think you missed an easy ride, but riding them in real time? Not easy.

          refresh – Last year I posted this of NFLX . Many were saying it was such a good buy & easy bull run to ride. This showed that price never gained for over a year. It was choppy. It is not always fair to look at a 5 yr chart from $20 to $120 and say, “Why didnt I ride that?” The answer is choppy trading – add a couple of days like today together & it causes people to exit positions.

          https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f782198ef6c634bdb41b12022df6d0a4aa7daa47c062e4d79564b4645e8cfbe6.jpg

          • Bill
            Bill says:

            I think its fair to say Timing is everything. If you buy at the wrong spot you get stopped out and hate that stock. I’ve been in several for a while now that seem to do pretty well without the big pullbacks. OLED, PYPL,VLO, and USG. USG was my hurricane play, and its worked out great. OLED has pulled back lately, but was an easy ride so far.VLO I sold when OIL got over $60 a barrel. These are the kind of stocks I’m talking about. Im sure you can apply your excellent chart reading to stocks like there.

  26. cannaber
    cannaber says:

    GBTC going to be the favorite crypto with that split check out volume

    Blah MJ and Silver…..but corrections happen

  29. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Taking a look at GDX vs GDXJ – The juniors are selling down faster, that is rather normal, they also climb %- wise very quickly.

    GG, NEM, ABX – NEM looks excellent ( That would probably be a good buy as a break out and back test soon) . GG seems like lightish volume selling so far. ABX didn’t get very high off of the lows, and looks to be the weaker of the 3.

  31. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    VSTM – We used to trade this and it did very well, looks to be trying to make a move ( Just not sure if the follow through will be there yet) .

    I would say ( For traders) it could be bought with a stop belwo the 50sma or 10sma. It did gain the 50sma at the end of 2017, but gave it up, so it is a tad more risky for that reason.

  33. JT
    JT says:

    Hi guys, just wondering, what software do you use to journal your trades? Is there one with reliable importing from Fidelity?

  35. MarkMarin
    MarkMarin says:

    I keep forgetting about TECK. 2016 generated a beautiful rally, where I was lucky to take profits. All of 2017 it has been in a meandering trading range. It looks like it’s getting ready for the next year long move. A bit of a pullback would be welcome! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/445f2c81a99dd27586dea568155954e809f36f3f7036f526425c727d73afb15e.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bbce7b05f5621bf6b2677cd0b9be0a5481104579da381195567fefa515b500b3.png See the daily and weekly attached charts.

    • RonB
      RonB says:

      There are a bunch of the industrial miners consolidating nicely. I think they will lead the way – maybe even before the USD completes the bounce

    • John
      John says:

      RALPH, I’ll say, U do stay positive. I follow you’ve every buy. What U buy, I buy. We’ll get rich together. OK ??

  39. Chris Fikis
    Chris Fikis says:

    Alex – what do you think about heiken ashi charts? Also do you follow smaller time frames besides weekly and daily charts?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      We have a subscriber that pretty much uses them exclusive. I dont use them that often, but they can help identify trends or turning points.

      I do follow smaller time frames other than Daily weekly – but I usually do that for shorter timed framed trades .
      I find that when someone says ” I have a BUY on a 5 or 15 minute chart” – That is fine for a very short time period.
      A 15 minute chart can change in 15 minutes.

      When I feel we are approaching a low , I may use them for entry, and I do check all time frames to see if they look like they are aligning. You can get a 15 minute chart “oversold” and bounce, but if the Hourly is still Overbought, that 15 minute chart will get overbought in an hour or so, and all I get is a 1 hr bounce, etc .

      I hope that is all understandable. And there may be other uses for short time frames too.

      • Chris Fikis
        Chris Fikis says:

        Thanks that makes sense. Find the big moves on the weekly/daily charts, and use the smaller time frames to fine tune the trade. I’m trying to get away from scalping.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Gotcha. I’m trying to scalp less too, and that is when the bigger trend can help.

          And using the smaller time frames does help with entry & exit if I’m paying attention to things that way.

  41. Peter
    Peter says:

    Today seems like the first that buy the dip didn’t work in general markets. They actually receded after the intraday rally.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Yeah that was really interesting. Had the normal midday move up and then rolled over into the afternoon. That’s classic on a pullback. Should be a great chance to go long? We haven’t had one in so darn long it’s hard to know when is safe!

  42. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    I´m probably early but couldn´t help but add a little to my miners, does not feel like we are done correctlng, but how I feel never made me any money.

    GLD might not even close below it´s 10 MA at this rate, wonder if that means more downside, or is showing that it is hanging in and the downside will be limited. Dosen´t really matter as I am in this for the long term, I suppose.

    I have 24% of my buying power left, and plan to put it all to work over the next several days.

  43. John
    John says:

    CF, with the general markets , Maybe, going down, what do you thing of our metals? IF, IF, the mkt tanks, do metals tank also?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hey John

      I just need you to know – When you see everyone name in RED, and yours is in Grey- we have found that those with a grey name – their comments dont show up when you first post them. They dont ‘auto-load’ like when you see other people comment and their comment just appears. The comments from those with Grey names only show up after we refresh the page- So I missed all of your comments today.

      I didnt want you to think people were ignoring you- they just cant see you.

      It happened to other subscribers and they had to go to DISQUS and resign up ? I forget how they fixed it.

      So if the marlets drop do metals tank was the question. I find that they can rise together, drop together, do the opposite. They have their own dynamics, and I would have to see what plays off of what as the move unfolds.

      I hope that helps & Sorry I missed this earleir

  44. david
    david says:

    Guys my cycles are showing that US dollar is starting a new intermediate cycle …. gold miners under pressure until at least mid March. If you bought Jnug place a stop under it …. just my two cents. Hope I am wrong…..

      • RonB
        RonB says:

        David – In the context of the cycle analysis Alex provides it may be more likely this is a few day bounce and then a continuation of the downtrend. That’s how I see it and will be playing it, with stops. Cycle analysis appears to be almost useless when it comes to a strong directional moves. I’m waiting to hear what CF has to say tonight but I’m really close to moving back into the base miners.

      • david
        david says:

        I have 16.33 by March 7 if it fails then 15 by May…… then surge to new highs beyond 2016 into end of year…
        CF is better to give advice . Let s hope after dcl in gold here things resume up….. gold wont really take off unti gold silver ratio is in check….. you will have both go up … although silver will explode if this wave 3 of an intermediate cycle….again please ask CF…for his thoughts….

          • Peter
            Peter says:

            Along those lines and taking my gold bull hat off and thinking objectively, IF the dollar is in a new IC, that would add credence to a double top at ~1365 and more downside to come.

          • david
            david says:

            I have sent everything to CF on possible alternative sceanrios. I am sure he will look at them andd include them in his report for everybody to consider for trading miners /metals.

        • marinho
          marinho says:

          Hi David thank you for your thoughts, something to respect if $ has put in ICL last week. I will probably hedge my silver position, as 80 cents to march 7 will hurt. Strange though as this seems to be just a 1st DCL for the precious metals, I am afraid that if it fails we would have a problem until may like you say.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Just so you all wont wonder too much and lose sleep 🙂

            I have mentioned that we have been ‘within the timing for an ICL in the USD’ ( I have been saying that in my reports).
            All that means is that we have seen ICL to ICL at 4 months in the USD before.

            Nothing has changed my view from all my past reports. And I have discussed this in the USD big picture etc. Scroll up & read this report USD & GOLD again. Nothing changed today from what this report pointed out. Look at the Charts again, Did Gold do anything unexpected from the charts in this report? Did the US? No- they did what this report pointed out,

            So really – yes, we are ‘in the timing range’ that the USD COULD put in an ICL , but we have seen USD ICls come 6 months apart, 8 months , etc. Again, Look at this weekend report.

            We do NOT have confirmation of an ICL in the USD. It COULD happen, but nothing shows an ICL yet.

            And I will cover it again in the next report, but it is basically as I have been saying, even in this report.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I’m not doubting what you say you see, just curious…
      How does your cycle work identify the difference between ICL or DCL on day 2 after a low?
      Just that 4 months from Sept means one is due- or is there more? Thanks

  45. JT
    JT says:

    In GDX and GDXJ… all the volume seems to happen at the start and end of the day.

    Only saving grace at this point is the VWAP, pointing to a probable morning recovery. After that, who knows.

  46. Peter
    Peter says:

    Judging by sentiment today in the comments, it seems like we’re close to a DCL. Every DCL I’ve seen in gold has you questioning whether it’s in a bull, and usually reverses once enough capitulation is complete. RSI getting close to oversold too on GDXJ.

  47. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    Been away all day, got back last 15 min – any news anywhere? SOXL (and most semis) went bananas end of day

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        They just add extra volume in at the end of the day. Rumor is dark pools or trades taking place during the day and they add the volume at the end, etc I just use the daily volume by itself.

        by the way- I wrote to one of your comments below too- please check it out 🙂

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        They also have to re-balance the ETF to line up with the investment goals. The larger the move of the underlying and higher regular day volume, the more rebalancing comes in at the close.

Comments are closed.