December 16 – This Is GREAT Too!

The Great Wall Of China, Great Danes , and Great White Sharks, they’re all considered great in their own way, but this is also Great in my opinion …

 

The C.O.T. for GOLD and SILVER  experienced another sharp drop in the Smart Money Shorts and the Speculative Longs.  THAT IS GREAT NEWS, since we decided to start taking positions is the Precious Metals.

This adds to our confidence of a ‘meaningful low’ being in place, so after a Big Picture Market review, we will discuss this further.

 

 I will also show you why I think this C.O.T. may even be better than it looks!

 

 

DJIA – Is this a Great Bull Market or what? We closed another week at the highs, and this still looks like it is possibly going parabolic.  Riding this ( or UDOW) with a rising stop would keep you in the game during ‘wiggles’. The DOW hasn’t closed below the 10 weekly MA since April. UDOW hasn’t closed under the 13 ma since April.

 

SPX – Here is our possible Parabola starting.

 

SPX – I pointed this out for 3 weeks now, an this type of break out shows that a new steeper incline is in progress so far. An ICL from here may simply back test the channel (Buyers could add there if it happens).

TQQQ – Ultra NASDAQ is curling upward too, and may now also start holding the 13ma weekly ( the 10 is shown).

 

XBI WEEKLY-The Biotechs have been stammering around, and it appears that they are forging out their next bottom on the lower channel line of an uptrend.

XBI DAILY  – When you have a bullish run higher,  often the normal pull backs become more of a sideways move, and form a handle on the recently formed cup. We may be seeing that here and the XBI may be due for an ICL actually.  See the magenta dividing lines.

 

WTIC – And we may be seeing a handle forming here with Oil too. Please read the chart.

USD –  Well,  the USD is finding resistance on it’s recent bounce out of the August ICL.  As expected, the USD rise has been muted.  So if the USD is ready to ‘give it up’,  this would be GREAT for Precious Metals too.  It does seem like things are lining up.

YEN –  I did an entire report over a year ago on the relationship of GOLD & THE YEN.   I researched the last 20 years and the relationship that they have almost always moved together.  At times Gold  leads the way by a week or so,  Other times showed that the YEN leads the way. Their charts often reflect this relationship.  What do we see with the YEN Now? This is very encouraging to me!

 

GOLD is the Black line / Yen is the RED line.

 

GOLD WKLY  – We see our reversal, and a weekly swing low could form next week with a move above $1261.60. Look at the Dec ICL run, and the July ICL run. This should be just starting.

GOLD FRIDAY – Please read the chart, since the Fridays ‘high’ needs to be beat for our weekly swing low.

SILVER – This looks like a Great H&S pattern forming. If it forms and breaks out, price projections are above $20  🙂   AGQ is the ultra bull silver, along with USLV as the 3x etf.

GDX WKLY – No ‘stop run’, this almost looks too easy, but maybe the Bull market has begun and this will leave many behind?  A reader told me that 1 analyst is saying NOT to buy until the DEC lows are taken out as a stop run.  They may be buying up at GDX $26, because I think that Miners probably be bottomed this week.  Read my last few reports, where I was showing that some miners were no longer selling off, even  with Gold or Silvers Dec selling.

GDXJ WEEKLY –  In Technical analysis, this would be

1. A break out in August

2. A long winding back test

3. A possible shake out as it broke down and recovers

Let me show you why this COT may even be better than it appears!   That is an exciting thought, isn’t it?

 

C.O.T. – In the opening COT Picture, I pointed out that we are near the July ICL levels.  This means that the Smart Money does NOT want to be short now.  Look how drastically they have exited their short positions, and how quickly the Spec Longs exited their longs.  Great, but …

 

 

GOLD COT– Then I just happened to notice that we are now in better position than the COT was at the Last December  ICL!   My conclusion? We are now at ICL levels in the COT.  This COT is reading better than Dec 2016, and similar to July 2017.   That is something to get excited about, right?

 

SILVER COT – Look at the Silver COT.  It is the same as the July ICL, and WAY better than last Decembers COT levels at the ICL.  It is, at the very least, a confidence booster that we are aligning ourselves with the Smart money. It also adds to the confidence that we are at Prior ICL levels, and much better than last Dec ICL.

 

 

   I have provided a PART 1 Gold report in last weekends report, full of bullish charts and ideas. Tuesday was Part 2, a more cautionary note, even using the COT SMART MONEY SHORT levels as a side warning ( now much improved). I continued on Fed Wed with Gold ideas,  so PLEASE re-read last weeks reports or skim the charts if you need reminders.  I said that I was taking positions with a dcl, because with a dcl  I could go from there as things play out.  I started conservative , but have increased my holdings Thursday and Friday as things seem to improve. The COT is a Great improvement,  the drops in ‘shorts’ were better than I expected, but exactly what I was hoping for. An ICL has not been ‘confirmed’, but this could very well be the ICL, with that COT reading.

 

So we could be at the very start of another multi-month bull run, and we haven’t missed a thing sitting right at the lows.

GDXJs possible future over time is a return to former highs –  It wont be this smooth, there will be DCLs along the way, even ICLs, but this Bull may be starting to run again, with the USD rolling over soon.

 

So let me say this –  I am personally in a transitioning phase in my personal trading account. I’m still holding a few Blockchain trades ( GROW, MARA, SRAX) and Medicinal Marijuana trades that may keep me from loading up on my basket of Miners for a bit.  I do not like to hold more than 5 or 10 positions at once, and I currently own 15!  I do plan on unwinding some of these trades soon and using the funds to buy Miners.  To make up for the lack of miners, I will mention that I do own JNUG.  Usually I won’t mention that for fear that my readers will take on too much risk and hold on in a sell off, but in this case, it is my only way to show that I am confident in the set up. I started with about 8% of my portfolio in JNUG after the FED MTG WED and added some GPL too, with a stop in place in case the  GDXJ sold off.   Thursday I  decided to add a bit more when I posted that GDXJ & GDX were back testing the 10sma, and I would use a tighter stop on that , since I was relying on the 10sma.   I now have a bit over 10% of my trading portfolio in JNUG.  Again, I am only mentioning this to show that I am trusting these lows for now ( with a stop in place). We have a swing low confirmed and I will see how this plays out for the next few days, but with the recent COT report, the possibility of an ICL increased greatly Friday.

 

Please recall that I have been trading fast gainers like RIOT , MYMMF , GLNNF,  MNTR,  and more and made some big % – gains on those ( hundreds of % gains, really) , so buying 10% position of JNUG with a stop at the lows may not be as big of a risk for me as someone that has just been patiently waiting for a low in Miners. Does that make sense?  I am using some of the recent profits for JNUG.  You may want to assess your own risk and trade accordingly.  Also, I do always encourage a BASKET of Miners,  to reduce individual risk ( like the dreaded public offering).  Again, please read or skim the past reports for ideas of Miners that are looking bullish, or look for your own that are near the lows, maybe just crossed the 10sma or 50sma, etc. I will add 1 more example below.

 

CONCLUSION:

1. The C.O.T. was a Great improvement to our swing low and forward expectations. 2. We have a confirmed swing low in Gold, Silver, and GDX and may get a weekly swing this week.  3. The Yen and Gold Bottomed together at the Dec 2016 ICL, the July 2017 ICL, and the YEN has bottomed, forming an inverse H&S. ( so this may be Golds Bottom) 4. Many Miners, as shown this weeks reports, have already bottomed and resisted Golds most recent selling.    I like to remain slightly cautious, because of what we have seen at past lows, but I’m a little less cautious with the improvements that we have seen.

 An old wise man once told me that at times, you just have to gather all of the available facts and after that, you just trust your ‘gut’ instincts once you’ve added up all of those facts.  My gut feeling is now actually thinking that this is the ICL in Gold, Silver, and Miners  –  we just need TIME to confirm that idea.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

 

 

~ALEX

 

 

EXTRA

 

 MUX – An example of a Miner that was terribly weak recently. As GOLD & SILVER sold off in Dec, MUX did NOT drop to the lower channel, and that would have even been normal during a Gold sell off. It held up, and now has broken out & the RSI broke out. Miners are showing strength.

MUX is now a low risk buy for those reasons- plus it did not sell off like Gold recently, the way that it sold off in August or September. It flat-lined (built a flat 2 month base) since Sept.

NAK– This week, Dec 13th, I pointed out that NAK is actually holding up well in the Big Picture. This was a reversal on the 50 weekly MA, buying here at $2.00 would be low risk.

 

NAK- It Popped the next day, and Friday I posted this in the comments section to show that NAK often POPS, then drops, and then continues higher. It was dropping Friday, but this might be a buy for any that missed it.  I was saying that the selling was of no concern, red arrows show that we see that often.

NAK– NAK actually was ‘bought up’ into the close Friday and it is now at $2.16. This looks like it may just be the start of a move higher on the weekly chart ( Especially if Miners are about to run).

Some complain about NAK, since it is a bit of a bumpy ride, but please note:  NAK at the JULY ICL was $1.25, at this ICL it is almost $2.25.  Did you realize that NAK IS UP 75% SINCE being recommended at the JULY LOWS. It has been a buy & hold recommendation of mine, and has been a slow and steady bull trade so far. Up 75% is a winner.