WEEKEND REPORT – MAKE IT CLEAR

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Last weeks weekend report showed what the BIGGER BIG PICTURE expectations are. This weekend I want to cover the various sectors and explain in a short clear manner what the expectations in the near term are, going forward.

 

DOW – As mentioned last weekend, The weekly chart makes it clear that the DOW is not pulling back as much as it normally would during daily cycle draw downs into the Daily Cycle Lows.  See the chart.

I wrote this report  Sat night & Early Sunday morning, but haven’t proof read it for typos.  I am spending Sunday afternoon with family, but I dont want to wait until late tonight to proof read & THEN release it late tonight.  I just wrote  a CLEAR SUMMARY AT THE END OF THE REPORT TO KEEP IT CLEAR. It will be there when this is released.  Thanks!

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DOW – Usually when the daily RSI got to extremes, the dip would get back to 50% RSI, and the price would tag the 50sma fairly regularly. This move seems to be going parabolic. BUY & HOLD is working the best now. I recommended a trailing stop, and though the NASDAQ might have stopped one out-  the SPX , DJIA, and other areas may not have. The pull back was minimal. Some are using  UDOW, UPRO, TQQQ, and these are obviously ramping up too.

NASDAQ – So the consolidation was a bit more sideways with the Tech Sector, but it MIGHT play catch up with the release of GOOG, FSLR, AMZN, and other Earnings being positive.  And look at the SPX after you view the NAZ chart below…

SPX – The cycle count is extended, and the dips are minimal, so the day 46 dip & reversal at the 10sma could be the break of the 10 & recovery. That could be a shallow DCL in the ramp up of a parabolic run.

GENERAL MARKETS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE GOING PARABOLIC, AND THOUGH IT COULD BE VOLATILE,  PRICE SHOULD RUN HIGHER.

 

 

NATGAS –  I was long for 2 weeks, because of the recent build up of longs with Smart money & Shorts in dumb money… and made pennies for profit.  I mentioned in Thursdays report that I decided to sell my long before the inventory report due to the ‘feel’ of this choppiness.   I am done with NATGAS until it starts trending.

 

WTIC –  OILs big picture remains Bullish.  The chart is NOT ‘price projection’,  it is a possible path of

1. A break out now occurring, 2. a back testing on a dcl later, and 3. then running higher.

 

XLE – August & September finally saw OIL/ENERGY STOCKS break out in a lasting manner, after a false break out in July/August.

 

XLE OCT 4 –  It was a strong run of short covering & buying.  Then we watched as the XLE tagged the 200sma and I expected more of a consolidation,  so look for the XLE to ‘CRAWL’ along the 200sma as the 50sma plays catch up.  Needs a bit more time.

XLE OCT 26th (Last week) –  Are we there yet?  It seems so, and I pointed out several  OIL / Energy stocks and mentioned that I did start to buy

XLE WEEKLY NOW– read the chart

 

In Fridays report I pointed out ENERGY STOCKS that have released earnings and have begun to rally higher AFTER EARNINGS. THAT would be viewed as BULLISH.  Fridays report had  charts of …SWN, QEP, WTI, WG, OAS, etc.   See fridays report if you need a reminder, and Let’s look at 2 that I bought.

 

WLL – BOTTOMED IN SEPT- This was a BUY in Sept breaking above $4.00

 

WLL –  Strong run to $5.75 and on OCT 11 formed a triangle and could tag the 50sma as a buy. I mentioned on this chart that I would expect more selling, but it was on my Watch List after such a nice run.

 

WLL – As mentioned in my last report, I bought this reversal Thursday and it broke out out from the consolidation downtrend on Earnings.  It was under $5.00 that morning, then $5.38 here…Upside on this chart could be excellent if we enter and remain  patient.

WLL FRIDAY NOW hit $5.91 –  The weekly broke out in September and that consolidation was along the 10ma  (Bullish).  When these run higher, they usually do a nice %-Gain. I see resistance at $8

 

 I Bought PDS on Friday breaking above the 10sma near $2.45, because it was rising after Earnings release too.

 

PDS WEEKLY IS A BULLISH STOP RUN REVERSAL

SO THIS MAY BE ANOTHER SECTOR TO GO LONG WHILE WAITING FOR THE MINERS TO PERK UP. I WILL CONTINUE TO COVER IT, SEE FRIDAYS REPORT IF YOU NEED A REMINDER.

 

GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

 

Gold & Silver started to bounce Friday …

 

GOLD – The Stockcharts chart is still wrong,  this shows Gold on day 14 and a Gold peak on day 5 , but it isn’t correct, they are missing the real day 1 that shows up on GLD.  See the next chart …

 

GOLD –  A peak on day 6 and Gold is on day 15, it could bounce with the reversl, but I would expect that the dcl is still ahead.

 

GOLD WEEKLY – Please read the chart, we may chop sideways to down over the next few weeks.

GDX  WEEKLY #1 – Please read the chart

GDX WEEKLY #2 – Please read the chart, and like Gold, I expect bounces but more eventual downside.

 

 

So to be clear…

1. General Markets  – The dips have been shallow and the rallies have been strong. This looks to be going parabolic. I advised a trailing stop and the recent ‘Pause’ or bull flag would not have stopped one out most likely. The NASDAQ may now play catch up with the recent bullish earnings report releases. Its seems worth re-entering the NAZ if you got stopped out.

2. USD  – I expect more upside after putting in an ICL, I am looking around the 97 area, but always examine things closer & update expectations as time goes on.

3. NATGAS –  I made a tiny profit after buying & holding for around 2 weeks of chop, but I sold out of my position before the inventory release, as mentioned in the Thursday pre-market report.  It has just been too choppy and until it starts trending,  I think I can make better money in other areas.

4.  OIL & OIL / ENERGY STOCKS  – This sector looks Bullish.   Review:  It started to bottom in August – September and I did post the bottoming process back then with the XLE & Several Oil Stocks.  There was a strong rally in The XLE ( & many of these stocks) and a consolidation then took place. Others stocks  lingered near lows and seem to be bottoming & reversing now as earnings are being released. THIS AREA LOOKS BULLISH AGAIN.

5. GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS – We could get a bounce ( or bounces)  and even a DCL soon, but I think that until the USD finishes its upside, the bounces will be weak and roll over. We could get another daily cycle leading us into a deeper, more meaningful drop ( An Excellent buy opportunity, like we have enjoyed at other ICLs) into Nov & even Dec.   Going forward I will continue to monitor this area daily and make adjustments as we move forward. Whether we bounce or not, I expect lower lows that what we just saw.

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I hope that this report makes my expectations clear, and of course I will continue to observe, make adjustments, report on and important changes along the way.   Enjoy the rest of your Sunday and also Mondays trading. I am watching OIL / ENERGY STOCKS now too and will point out some areas of interest below.

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~ALEX

 

Other areas of interest…

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AMD #1 – I drew this at 9:39 a.m. Friday, with AMD still selling off  after they released earnings. This is a bulllish pattern if it does not break down,  SO one would but THE REVERSAL, or a SIGN OF STRENGTH,  not just buy it on the way down.  If it breaks down and waterfalls, it gets ugly.

 

AMD #2 , Weekly– This is how AMD ended the week.  With the May earnings, we see the same reaction, and that was the lows,  so let’s see this week if AMD just did the same post earnings crash  ( & then recovery).   It is, after-all, a bull market. If this breaks down, it could get ugly, it did CLOSE below the 50 ma on a  weekly basis.

 

The BIOTECHS POP and get very exciting, but when the consolidate, they are boring and difficult to endure, so these trades are NOT for everyone.  Some of us are actually already in these trades. They may now be ready.

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I posted this for CTRV Thursday the 26th– a possible back test Biotech break out.  I do own this.  It was oversold & needs to recover soon.

 

CTRV FRIDAY OCT 27th–  That was quick 🙂   Up 10% and still oversold, hopefully this sees follow through this week.

 

HTGM – I posted this in the live comments Friday a.m. as HTGM seems to be bouncing along the 10sma so far.  It was $2.55.

 

HTGM  then shot up to $2.68 and closed at $2.59, so this is another that we could get some follow through on.  I will sell 1.2 on a pop to $3.00  Thats a BIG gain, but you can see form this chart that it does move like that.

NAK –  Since many here own NAK, I just wanted to also point out that it reversed near the 50sma and could also break out & run higher next week. I didn’t add, because I own enough from adding on the recent run higher, but this is a lower buy area, but a stop has to be under the 50sma.

 

86 replies
  1. Cory Fale
    Cory Fale says:

    with your outlook on NatGas and Oil what do you think of CHK on the long term? I know their debt loads are highly concerning but if the market conditions change perhaps their outlook is as well…

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hey Cory-

      I looked at both XCO & CHK Friday when I ran through my lists ( And they are more natgas Energy type plays) and I actually really like both.
      The CHK chart also had a big volume pop out of the lows Friday – very oversold – and has divergence at the MACD.
      I actually do like it.

      Also – I am just a bit tired of the choppy sideways NATGAS moves, but when it breaks and starts trending, I think it should move higher, so CHK & XCO may be front running the sector too.

  2. Cal Staggers
    Cal Staggers says:

    Thanks for getting your report out early, Alex!

    I just looked over the sugar ETF SGG – on Friday it popped above its 50day MA; and the RSI & MACD are strong on ALL time frames (5 min to weekly), which seems unusual. Is this a commodity that interests you?

    • Edward Bernhart
      Edward Bernhart says:

      With block-chain being heralded as the next internet for its security benefits, among others, this seems like a natural progression. one alternative to avail ourselves to this new technology seems to be companies like PRELF any comments?

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        I’ve traded the Blockchain area to see if it was something that I would introduce here, but decided against it at this time. It is definitely not for the faint of heart. I’d be up 30%, then down 25%, then up 3 days in a row, then down on huge down day…..

        VERY rough ride, but nice gains. PRELF, RIOT, KPAY, and there are others – BE WARE of the volatility. ‘Timing’ the proper entry was EVERYTHING.

        KPAY- I read about it being used for Mobile pay in India , I think it was…… I made great gains and gave most of it back, all in 1 week! 🙁 It was like IN at $1.80 – it ran to $2.80 in 3 days, out at $1.90. THAT was futile.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Yes, in the same category. It’s like they look GREAT 1 day ( like the biotech) and yet they can drop the following day. Tough to trust , I guess.

            I also traded and really liked GLNNF – I just ran though my charts since reading your comment…. and that chart actually looks very good today

          • Edward Bernhart
            Edward Bernhart says:

            Yes, but the Genie is already out of the bottle (up 16%), you needed to tell me about GLNNF on Friday Alex! LOL

  4. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    We are having an odd storm here in New England tonight into the morning, with almost hurricane force wind gusts ( they think 60-70m.p.h. are possible) , 2-4 inches of heavy rain, flash flood warnings, and due to the heavy leaves still being on many trees with the soaked soggy ground, trees could topple and we’ll lose power, so…

    If you ask questions , but you do not hear back from me in the morning, a power outage could be the reason.

  5. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    All around the interent besides permabulls like over at King World News, all I read is bearish price projections for gold and miners. I am a bit perplexed the COT isn´t reflecting a more bullish posture with everybody convinced we are going lower, unless many just think we are but are not positioned for a decline?

  6. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    With oil overbought on the daily stochastics, buy OIH just coming out of oversold, I am curious as to which will lead. Will drillers bring oil lower, or will the OIH play catch up and have a nice run, like DO and PDS seem to be doing?

  9. Edward Bernhart
    Edward Bernhart says:

    While the stop run we witnessed in copper on Friday has not allowed TGB, or HBM to rebound to Thursdays levels IVPAF has made up for them.

  10. JT
    JT says:

    Marijuana sector is rallying. My TWMJF position doing very well today. Worth watching this sector.

    otcmarket tickers:
    TWMJF, ACBFF, MEDFF, APHQF, CNTTF, CMMDF, THCBF

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        I am finding that many of the CANADIAN MJ companies ( Similar to the Mining stocks that sell on the Toronto Stock Exchange) are holding up better after a run, and the charts are looking good . Higher highs , higher lows.
        They still have long consolidations and some have been up & down / sideways for a while – but overall , their charts seem to hold the gains better.

        For example: My 2 older favorites to trade were CNAB & CNBX and now on a 1 yr chart, you can see the drift down there, especially after they lost the 200sma. .

        1 year Charts of TWMJF, OGRMF, MEDFF, and other Canadian based companies do not seem to give up their rallies the way some of the others have been.

        I still own EDXC as a longer term BUY & HOLD, but I bought OGRMF today as a Canadian company

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I like the set up on OGRMF too – Really like the chart on a couple that you mentioned like the TWMJF .

      I sold my GLBS & CTRV today and entered OGRMF due to the weekly & daily set up

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        When I first read JTs post, not many of the list of Herbal stocks that I watch were up, but the Canadian ones were….now many others seem to be popping up.

        Like CNBX, GRNH, MJNA, CBIS, etc for example. These were not up when I read this post

        LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME these got very bullish into yr end.

        Good call JT

  11. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    Was Sprott ever wrong on uranium! I consider them like KingWorldNews permabulls now, almost useless for a real opinion.

  12. Cason
    Cason says:

    That sure was a crazy move in IPI THIS morning. I have a stink bid in now I’m case that happens again!

  13. Cason
    Cason says:

    Bought NUGT here. Not in love with it, don’t think we’re going to get away from lower low trend before next ICL but she was ugly oversold. Best buy would have been earlier but I was still sleeping at the open. Looking 8%, couple days hold max, not a “cycle play” like I usually do.

  14. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Power & internet restored. Crazy wind last night & trees down everywhere.

    Out of GLBS the shipper stock in a long base ( I’m Still in a base., may be fine, I just decided to take the loss and use it on OGRMF due to the wkly & daily chart). I still own NM as a shipper, took a loss on GLBS

    Also out of CTRV – a loss at $0.548

    Energy stocks look fine.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Yeah – it had a nice POP Friday and I was hoping for follow through, but today it seems to have gapped down.

        I’m close to dumping IPI too. It just isnt acting as expected when I bought it. LONG TERM Chart is fine with the consolidation, but now lower lows, lower highs in the short term.

        Maybe use my IPI $$ for energy … there are quite a few releasing earnings this week.

  15. Cal Staggers
    Cal Staggers says:

    JRJC
    Alex, you mentioned that the 50d MA on JRJC is a good stop, however there may be a one-day shakeout below that level. Today seems to be that day. It hasn’t recovered the 50d SMA, but it came back and is sitting on the 50d EMA

    Reckon it would be good to give it another day to see how it acts?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I just took a look, it is recovering a bit here, and it kind of looks like that could be a shake out that turns into an inverse H&S on a 3 month chart- but that is only if it recovers. You could hold to see how it acts, I dont think it’ll gap down, because ( I forget exactly when), but someone said when earnings were and I think it is in a week or so.

      • Cal Staggers
        Cal Staggers says:

        Bummer – I’m trying to only be in the ones you’re in, looks like I made another mistake as it sounds like you’re not in JRJC. Oh well, i’ll give it another day to see what happens

  16. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I bought PDS Friday, because it had 1 strong day out of the lows with strong volume & I hoped for good follow through. That is working, and worked for WLL too. So I looked for others and I wanted to buy GTE Friday too, but their earnings come out NOV 2 – Wish I took the chance….t is up nicely today too

    But that is how i am looking at these, if any were wondering. I really want ones that already released earnings for now, so I dont get caught in a gap down sell off surprise. Most are doing well after earnings however.

  17. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Alex, what do you think of AKS here and also GGB? I got both last week and both have dropped today….I think long term will be ok but….? Maybe they are just doing some back testing?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      AKS is still above 50sma and could be fine, but I dont like the look of GGB anymore.

      It was crawling along the 50sma, and looked good, ready to break through higher, but it was rejected and that looks similar to what CLF did. Look at it with a 6 month chart – it shows a possible H&S.
      Personally, just because of that H&S look….I would just exit it if it were me…until I saw improvement.

  18. Edward Bernhart
    Edward Bernhart says:

    With earning out this morning, IPI looks to be having head winds in the future with sales down.

    Intrepid Potash Just beats Q3 Estimates

    BY MT Newswires
    — 8:07 AM ET 10/30/2017

    08:07 AM EDT, 10/30/2017 (MT Newswires) — Intrepid Potash ( IPI Loading…

    ), (IPI) a fertilizer manufacturer, on Monday reported Q3 net loss of $0.02 per share, up from a net loss of $0.24 per share in the same period last year, coming in better than the $0.03 loss expected by analysts polled by Capital IQ.

    Total sales were $32 million, down from $43.6 million reported for the same period last year and below the $33.2 million Street estimate.

    The company did not give any future estimate figures, but CEO Bob Jornayvaz said: “Looking ahead, we continue to focus on growing water and by-product sales and remain on track to meet our goal of at least $20 million to $30 million in water sales during 2018.”

    Price: 3.90, Change: +0.09, Percent Change: +2.36

  19. Cal Staggers
    Cal Staggers says:

    Looks like we’re beating you up right before the close, Alex!

    If you don’t mind: what do you study when entering UGAZ? Do you look over the less volatile UNG? or Natural Gas futures?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Just ignore it. I dont even read all of the opinions…I get too many emails where people read everything, get confused , get scared out of buying at important times.

      IN fact., I remember when you posted an article here for everyone ( Saying GDXJ could not outperform GDX anymore) and you said that you believed it and wouldnt use GDXJ anymore.

      I got several emails of readers concerned and asking why I am taking such risk, based on the readjusting of GDXJ – so I posted that GDXJ would out perform based on my analysis and it has outperformed very well since you posted that article. 🙂

      My advice : Be careful of all the articles out there that you decide to read & post here for others. Your just going to scare yourself at the wrong time.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        When Miners start selling into an ICL – I usually get emails from people telling me that they read

        ” cryptocurrencies are stealing money from Miners”
        ” Miners will crash due to inflation lagging”
        “Gold is going under $1000 to test the 2008 area”
        “BOTS are manipulating Precious metals pricing”
        ” North Korea is no longer a threat, so Gold & Miners will drop quickly”

        Etc etc etc

        And I am asked to prove them wrong in my next report. And I have done that each time we sell off into an ICL, I explain why I don’t see things that way, but iis time consuming to read all the theories of why they think it is selling off, when we all know that Cycles are playing a big part of it, and they recover after the ICL is in place.

        My advice has to be just Beware what you read and who you listen to . : – )

  22. Hawaiifive0
    Hawaiifive0 says:

    Alex, are you thinking of making OGRMF a long term hold much like EDXC. I followed you in today with a small position thinking that the higher highs might make this attractive as a long term hold.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      It may be, I’ve been watching it for a while. It is acting correctly, so as long as it continues, it may be one that benefits from the industry growth.
      If it breaks down or has trouble after earnings, etc I could cut it loose.

  24. Maria
    Maria says:

    omg… CNBX … ummm … please tell me this is the beginning “3” Good GollyMissMolly :-O
    leg “1” was 32,930 % ?????????? G .. U .. L .. P ….
    vrooom vrooom ..

    #ChartPorn

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