Wednesdays Mixed Bag

Honestly, not much is changing from the weekend reports expectations and the Tuesday update.  The General markets are moving higher, The USD has put in an ICL, Oil dropped but Oil & Energy stocks are holding rather well, etc. etc.,  so today I am just going to cover a variety of ideas, including trade set ups and a trading idea that is a bit higher risk … a real Mixed bag.  Enjoy.

 

 

Starting with Oil –  Oil broke the trend line  with a day 19 peak. We would need to see a dcl by day 38 to get a R.T. Daily cycle. Oil stocks still look good, so I am wondering if Oil will just drop to the support and bounce around like it did in the first daily cycle.  Notice that it did a bounce off of the 50sma, and then a shake out. That took weeks of sideways action.

XLE – After ripping higher to extremely over bought conditions, you would expect a drop when Oil drops, but at this point, a sideways move along the 200sma could alleviate overbought conditions.

USD – Now with a peak on day 17, the USD is due for a dcl, and may begin to move sideways or drop down from here.

GOLD – Gold has continued to slowly drop down, but I have been pointing out that Miners are looking bullish.  Has that changed? No, many Miners still look bullish and GDX & GDXJ have unconfirmed swings in place.   Since Miners usually lead, I would expect Gold to put in a swing today ( timing is late).

GDX– GDX broke above its trend line and closed at the 10sma (GDXJ closed a bit above it).  So with gold selling down, Miners went green again.  1. We are due for a dcl   2. Miners often lead the Metals 3. the timing is due for a dcl  4. This is very oversold.

 

Individual Miners again

 

CDE – Even on September 28 I pointed out CDE as a BUY candidate, refusing to sell off and  consolidating above the 200sma.

CDE –  Tuesday it started moving higher.

DRD –  I Own this one and I even added to my position on Tuesday.  As mentioned here, this is struggling to fill that gap, so it is having a hard time selling off.  Even with GOLD selling off, this is consolidating sideways too.

EXK – Now EXK is trying to break out too.

I posted a number of Miners in recent reports,  and most are not selling off with Gold. This is a good sign when you are due for a dcl.  BUY LOW / SELL HIGH is the way to play.

 

STEEL

 

Last week with this chart, I pointed to STEEL and STEEL stocks possibly ready to break higher.

STEEL – Steel is now pushing on that 200sma, and steel stocks do seem to be gaining traction.

 

SID was a BUY on this reversal at $2.75, or in this area.

SID – And it is gaining traction.

X –  US STEEL has been moving higher  for days since my report.   IS IT TOO LATE TO BUY THESE?

X –   It is not too late to buy these if they are going to make another run higher, but the best entry is certainly behind us.   After they move higher for several days in a row, we always risk buying when a small pull back could occur, so it gets tricky, however…  This chart is to show why I say it is not too late.  This is an uptrend now and could be set to run.

 

AKS – This has also been moving a bit higher every day since I mentioned Steel Stocks.

COPPER –  I thought that Copper might do an A-B-C type correction,  but based on Copper stocks  (leading the way?), I think Copper may simply move higher.

September 28–  This was our buy area posted here for TGB

Tuesday TGB – That was a nice 10% pop Tuesday.  Hope for a bull flag as drawn here, and you’ll get another buy or place to add.

So the Commodity stocks are acting bullishly again too.  The USD has put in an ICL, and it should not break that ICL for weeks, but that doesn’t seem to be crushing Metals and miners at this point.  Could it be that Smart Money is accumulation this sector along with Miners in anticipation of inflation or just to be in the next Bullish sector?  Take a look again at a 2 yr chart of Miners, TGB, HBM, FCX, X, etc, etc.  This is a Bull market in its early time period.

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~ALEX

 

 

For the longer term buy & hold investors,  or even medium term  –  this may put in a solid run higher soon, if we get a break out.  Let me show you why. Also keep in mind that the General markets are not pulling back as much as they used to when the timing for an ICL comes around, and that could lead to a blow off top, parabolic run.

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AMD #1 Daily  –  I’ve been pointing out AMD as bullish, but it just wont take off and run, it is stuck in this 8 month consolidation. We saw a nice POP on Tuesday, so I drew a run to former highs as possible and…

AMD #2 WEEKLY – The weekly chart shows that this could be a huge triangle or bull flag.  When it breaks out AMD could run into the 20’s and more very quickly…

MU WEEKLY – I have pointed out many many times in the past,  most people would love to buy & hold  these great runners, but the big consolidations bore them to death  and they often sell  early.  MU broke from its consolidation and it just ran $27 to $40.50 in a straight line move.

 

EMAIL QUESTION:  Let’s discuss quickly , briefly the crazy strong moves taking place in Biotech.

I have mentioned MANY times in the past that long bases can produce crazy strong moves.  One hint of good news or increased profits on a company in these bases can really Pop them.  At times I set aside a chunk of money to trade this area  and we have caught many of these rockets, and we have missed plenty. It is very hard to know when exactly these bases will break out ( And some do not break out).

SO recently I pointed out CRMD.  IT is this base formation that shows me that selling seems to have died off.  IF it breaks down,  get out of the way, because the power of this base can be a powerful sell off, but buying near the lows can pay off.

CRMD then broke out Monday  ( Tuesday it stalled, but may bull flag & continue higher. They usually do).

ECYT – This was on my list, another long long base in the right sector ( Biotech) ,  but I did not catch this one.  It gapped open and put in some Ridiculous gains.

 

  So yesterday I wrote in the comments that I just bought  MTBC  ( it was only up a few cents, but volume was strong and it had a long base that showed a pattern that I like).  I then wrote that I added to that position when it was up 10 cents mid day and was going to lunch. This was that comment.

 

MTBC ran up over 100% at the end of the day.   Question was, how did you know?  See the triangle in the long base? That was part of it.  Selling was drying up.  I have a small watch list that I watch each morning, and you will notice that I rarely comment between 9:30 – 10:30 Eastern time, because I am checking the markets in that first trading hour for signs of life, and I watch these bases lately in that first hr.  There are false starts too,  Please notice that POP on Sept 18.  THAT caught my eye in MTBC, because there was a smaller triangle, but it pulled back again, and held the lows of that triangle.

 

SO the email question continued –  Are there any that you are watching now that you think could POP? Yes, I have a short list, but first my important disclaimer:

1. This is not an area to ‘go all in’  and risk important funds.

2. This is not a get rich quick scheme

3. Sometimes I get into these bases and we ride then for weeks, with poor results and frustration.

4. If it starts selling down, it can become  dangerous fast, especially if you are not in front of your screen

 

MBOT – I have already pointed this out for a while now. It is a 3 month base, and some of those others were even longer, so this MAY NOT be quite ready, but I liked what I read about the company, and the set up looks very good.  THIS IS NOT AN EASY RIDE if you over fund it.  It went from $1 to $1.40 and back to under $1 recently.  So either watch it daily and buy a break of the $1.50 & take your chances with follow through,  or buy it and forget it as it pops & drops  ( Easier said than done, trust me).

 

 

SIDENOTE:   This type of trading is really not for everyone.   Yes,  I have other Biotech stocks  on my list, but I really do not want to distract people here from the safer areas to make money. I have seen good friends of mine get ‘bogged down’ trying to just hit the home run, taking their money and spreading it out into 5 or 10 of these bases, and miss out on normal healthy trading gains over time.  It can be distracting.   A baseball team that hits just 3 home runs in a game may not beat a team that hits a steady number of singles and doubles in a row each inning.  Trading and adding gains with already bullish stocks trending higher, like IPI, TGB, HBM, CLF, X, GRPN, TSEM, MU, etc over time will help the account to grow in a more relaxing manner.    Steel stocks are steadily climbing, Miners may be ready for another  run higher, and there are other ‘set ups’ that offer steady gains over time.  Readers here are better served investing in stocks that are trending higher gradually.

 

That said,  along with MBOT,   GNMX has an interesting base set up, so I will be watching it.  See a 6 month chart, and then 3 month chart.