Oct 8th – Are We There Yet?

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Let’s take a look and see where the last week of trading took the markets…

 

SPX –  The Big Picture for the General Markets remains the same. The ICLs  ( deep meaningful dips in the market) are becoming less visible as the bull run picks up speed.  Daily cycle wise? We are entering the time for a dip into a dcl.

The NASDAQ was more of a sideways move lately, as the RUT, DJIA, SPX and SOX moved higher, but…

 

NASDAQ –  The NASDAQ broke out Thursday and Friday causing a weekly break out. We still have a bull run in tact, with higher lows and higher highs and a consolidation here an there that keeps sentiment from becoming too frothy so far. I have recommended a trailing stop for ‘longs’.

 

NASDAQ PARABOLA COMING?

 

NASDAQ– All throughout 2017 we have been taking a look back at the NASDAQ Parabolic run and noticing similarities to the current run in the NASDAQ.

1. In  June on this chart,  I pointed out the run along the 50 week MA ( RED ARROWS)  and after a shake out,  it never dropped below it again.

2. A surge higher after the shake out is what we were experiencing, and then

3. It consolidated and got a bit bumpy before really taking off ( See the green arrows pointing out the bumpy ride). Did we ever get that bumpy consolidation?

NASDAQ – The recent consolidation was a bit bumpy and does show up in similar fashion as the one in 1999 now on this chart.  This is still lining up as a strong possibility.

NASDAQ CLOSE UP 1999 –  That 1999 consolidation looked like this close up, and yes, it was choppy and difficult to trade, but when it broke out?  This is a weekly chart and it took off straight up week after week for 6 months.  Are we there yet with the recent break out? …

NASDAQ WKLY – It is too early to tell, but we do have a weekly break out.  Again, it ran for 6 months practically straight up, so a trailing stop still works perfectly.  Agaon, we are due for a dcl, so I am watching this next dip for more clues.  If we still cannot get a deeper ICL, buy the dip may be the best way to go. Buying this break out may not be the best thing to do, since we are getting late in the daily cycle.

 

USD – A day 20 peak out of an ICL, but that seems to finally be a topping candle and we are due for a USD dip.  A dip here can give Gold a push higher.

 

UUP –  I used the UUP for volume analysis.

USD – We should expect a dcl and then a higher high on the next USD daily cycle. That is likely when GOLD will drop into it’s next dcl  (ICL?).

 

OIL GOT A BIT WEIRD LAST WEEK.

 

Reminder using the next 3 charts: I expected a dip and a bounce and drew it this way, hoping for a 1/2 cycle low bounce at the 200 or 50sma…

 

Looking for the bounce possibly like this, Energy stocks were holding up on this dip.

 

YAY- We got our bounce started here Thursday, but… it crashed Friday down to the 50sma. A time to be cautious in Energy may be here…

WTIC WEEKLY –  Leaving us with this weekly chart at $49.29, on possible support, but closing at the lows.  If we break this blue trend line, the entire Intermediate Cycle will be broken and a drop into an ICL could begin.

WTIC–  And that big picture would look like this to my eyes. A giant H&S.

THE XLE  does not look bad, but I just want caution in the back of my mind. Some Oil stocks look good, others may be weakening. Look at OAS and WPX with a 50sma and see what you think.  They may be heading for a back test.  A buy opportunity or not, we will know when we get there.   HOS actually looks good, and I still own that one.

Sidenote: ERY actually looks like a BUY right now

 

 

NATGAS –  The daily chart for NATGAS failed and broke below the prior daily cycle.  It has basically been bouncing around sideways for weeks and weeks.  I have not recommended long or short here for that reason.

NATGAS –  It is starting to look like NATGAS could drop though.  Do not be fooled into think that with winter coming, NATGAS will automatically rise.  I hear that every year, and I ignore it, it can be proven wrong.  Check the charts in 2014 & 2015 Oct to Dec.

 

GOLD & MINERS – ARE WE THERE YET? I do think so…

 

I felt like I had to write an emergency Friday Gold & Miners update, because there were some getting frustrated and upset with this sector. People were becoming convinced that going short would be good.  I wanted to point out that things were acting quite normal, some of my possible expectations were definitely happening.  Fridays Gold section is worth re-reading.     Lets see what happened leading up to Friday.

 

GOLD WEEKLY  Sept 27, I thought that we could do a back test.  It would drop below $1275 as shown if it back tests the break out of the trend line. Normal.

GOLD – We back tested that trend line last week, hit 1262, and we now have a reversal candle. This was NOT a horrible sell off, NOT completely unexpected, it is normal and was a possibility all along.

 

GOLD –  I drew this last week and this is the updated version using Fridays close.  So if we get a DCL and a bounce,  we may only get this with the USD set up the way that it is. Then the USD could roll over and fail and Gold can put in an ICL and move out of a double back test.

 

MINERS

 

GDX –  So WAY back in early September ( And here SEPT 13)  I started pointing out this GDX back test too. It would lead to 22ish. Read this chart please.

GDX WEEKLY –  GDX reversed at the 22 area last Tuesday.  We got a confirmed DCL in Miners and it looks pretty much perfect.  Does this look bullish and easy to ride?  Yes it does, it always does in hindsight, but emotions & frustration started to grip some.   IF I Show this chart a year from now and GDX is at $60 then,  will people say,  “I would have backed up the truck and loaded up on Miners during that tiny drop!”

GDX-  I felt the need to put this in Fridays report, because some were thinking that this small selling candle was horrible & ugly on Thursday, and wanted to go short. I wanted people to realize that the prior lows all bottom / bounce / and drop before taking off.  This was normal, I was not concerned.    See RED, Blue, And Green arrows.  Again, this was NOT acting horribly, it was normal.

Gold dropped $10 and Miners hardly budged, down 20cents.

GDX DAILY – And there you go. I am so glad that I wrote that report Friday, hopefully people that were thinking of giving up or going short were influenced to wait and see. The DCL was confirmed in Miners, it was a BUY until lows were broken, and they were not broken.  GDX acted correctly the whole time,  IGNORING GOLD selling off $10 Wed & $10 Thursday.

GDX – At the end of September I wanted to show an expectation (and it is still valid, so let me review it again).  This would be a move out of a DCL, it could last 8-12 days on average , before peaking.  I WILL TAKE IT STEP BY STEP, IN DAILY REPORTS.

 

 

GDX WEEKLY –  It would look like this,  with the next ICL possibly back testing this trend line 1 more time.  I just want to say that using technical analysis, this could just run higher.  It is a break out,  back test , and go… but we are cautioned using cycles and The USD ICL.

 

GDXJ – Look at Fridays candle. We see a beautiful reversal and the DCL was not violated. Yes this was day 4, I will take this step by step in the daily reports.

 

 

GDXJ WEEKLY-  We see another Perfect back test.

 

Several Miners have been bullishly set up, and I have been pointing this out during Golds drop to build confidence. Along with the many others that I have had in past recent reports,  lets look at…

 

AKG – Did this sell off with Gold Wednesday and Thursday?  No, it is up 4 days in a row lafter bottoming  on Monday and now should try to break the 50sma. It may run and only back test this 50sma on the next DCL.

EXK –  I bought this because it bottomed weeks ago and did NOT sell off with Silver.  It broke the 50sma and crawled along it (above it) last week with Silver selling off. This is still a buy in my opinion.  Imagine a quick run to the 200sma, and a drop to the 50 on the next dcl.  That would be a 22% gain from $2.60 to $3.18.  No guarantees, but I’m going to try it. 🙂

I believe that Gold will now put in a confirmed swing low, since the Miners have their low in place 4 days ago.  Some of the set ups on Miners look Bullish and ready to move higher, even if you are just looking for a few quick trades and possible gain of 10%, 20%  or more.  The set up is low risk  ( easy stop) and nice reward,  this seems like a good time to buy these set ups.

 

 

~ALEX

 

 

EXTRA

 

STEEL – Steel still seems to be acting bullishly, but the steel stocks started pulling back Friday after moving higher ( see SID for example).  Most stocks still look ok, but use stops if you are in them, because…

CLF – CLF is starting to look weak again. It ran higher, but was rejected at the 50sma.   AKS remained above the 50sma, SO FAR, but I would keep an eye on these stocks.   CLF has signs of weakness, see the chart.

COPPER –  The chart of Copper looks fine…

 

TGB – TGB really broke higher on Friday, up  23% for the week!  This stock has been a real winner for 2017.

HBM WKLY –  The weekly chart of HBM  (copper) also looks set up to move higher. Compare it to the TGB chart above and they look very similar.

 

ENPH – I posted in the comments section Friday that I sold my ENPH, simply due to this double top. I like it long term and will look to re-enter later. It could just consolidate sideways, but I wanted to lock in very good gains with the MACD weakness and stochastics set up for possible selling.  This stock doubled since August,  so I will be looking to re-enter.

133 replies
  1. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    Awesome CF. TGB this second go round has me up 40 cents from entry. Can’t be mad at that at all.
    Grabbed IAG as well, again…let’s hope we get some good follow thru… totally missed JNUG with the rest of you guys… I’ll catch it one of these days.
    Thanks for the updates…

    Still looking for the next set up. Have a great weekend and happy hunting all

  3. SonOfGud
    SonOfGud says:

    Alex.. check out GEVO (once again)..
    what you think?
    pulling back aftermarket Friday, but looks just about ready to rock

  4. Peter
    Peter says:

    Thanks, Alex. Really helpful analysis. General question…when you recommend trailing stops, is there a good technique I can use to determine a fund’s volatility and the set my trailing stop as to not get shook out too soon?

    I’m running into this dilemma with JNUG, TQQQ, SOXL, LABU, and UDOW.

    • Ralph Wiederzane
      Ralph Wiederzane says:

      Use the ATR, or average true range going back several periods. Many systems are set at (20), seems to work.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Peter,

      Those are all leveraged vehicles, mostly 3x etfs, so they move 3x as much as the underlying trade. Stops on these must allow room for the wiggles, but loosses can really add up if you are not in the right ‘timing’ for a low, and if you didnt enter near the lows.

      I do not have a formula for that other then not buying 3xetfs very much above the lows- the swings are going to be big & very tough to ride, unless you get in near lows and allow bigger losses ( Allowing Bigger losses are not very easy to do).

      I just went through a little of that with JNUG, but I was OK with it, because I felt that we were at the lows. I started a position a tad early near $19 – it popped to $20 and then dropped $18. Since it was a 3x etf, I had to allow over 10% loss to avoid being stopped out, but that is not easy for many to do. ( And I added too – due to my conviction that the lows were close, and this would lower my dollar cost avg).

      So I do not have a formula for it, other than to know where we are timing wise, and know in advance how much it can move, and decided whether it is worth the risk. Hope that helps a little.

  5. Rob
    Rob says:

    Tomorrow is Thanksgiving in Canada. Happy thanksgiving, everyone!…And to my 1/2 Canadian brother Bob..wherever he is.

  6. Hawaiifive0
    Hawaiifive0 says:

    Thanks Alex. Great report as always. I may dd to HBM today and consider taking a position in AKG. If we’re holding JNUG, I think we should count today as day 5 out of a possible 8 to be safe, instead of using gold for the count. Is that right?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi H50

      You could to be safe, but

      Personally, I am just taking the miners as individual trades, and that could also affect GDX / GDXJ – thus affecting JNUG & NUGT . So I am not using cycle day 8 this week to sell, when Gold will only be on day 3 by then. I take thungs day by day and use the cycle counts as a guide, and not a rule

  8. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    CF, just to be c lear, your small cap biotech plays like MBOT and INFI are longer term plays, meaning minimum several week holds or until they explode higher, possibly even several month holds, correct?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I don’t think that I ever said that? I usually don’t recommend Biotech as a safe long term buy & hold ( But they can be) Here is what my thinking is…

      They vary. The sector is hot and so all of these bases are starting to break out as money is looking for the next big thing. It seems like mediocre news or at times no news at all just ignites the spark, and the bases have energy to push price upside.

      Some may move higher, bases in place, continue higher and be on their way, while others may break out – get bad news or failed trials , need funding, etc , and drop back later.

      I don;t know if I will ever say that any Bioteck stock is a guarantee and a great BUY & HOLD- I usually warn that they are higher risk due to FDA rejection, failed trials, etc. so it is buyer beware, sell the pop if you are happy with 10% gains….ride it to 30% gains – maybe get 100 – 300% gains. They all vary.

      • Ralph Wiederzane
        Ralph Wiederzane says:

        i guess we need to clarify our personal definitions of long term, even long term buy and hold. Excuse me if you think I put those words in your mouth, not my intention, I was just asking if this is more a day to day thing that we probably exit a week or two after taking the trade, or are they more a several week to possibly months type setups? I have beden so focused on miners, regrettably I have not paid enough attention to the other trade setups!

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          No worries, I didnt think that you put words in my mouth, I just need to repeat that these are tricky because of the sector that they are in. I was in an excellent biotech heart stock once and rode it from $10ish to $20’s and ip opened down big one day (Failed trial) and cut my funds big time.

          I have been holding some for a week or two ( MBOT, MTBC for example), but I tend to sell a portion on the hugh=ge pop & allow the rest to move about to be able to handle the down days .

          For example MTBC – HUGE pop & RUN, but I had to sell a good amount. That was roughly $1 stock jumped to $6! Yikes! SO I sell 1/3 or 1/2 on that kind of jump and now my original investment is back in my pocket with profit & I move on.

          MBOT I still own and even added , because it is within the base.

          So defining long term. Depending on how they perform, I would hold them for a week, 2, maybe 3 and yes, if it stays well above buying costs – hang on for as long as you want. No real recommendation on it once it gets moving. They can do whatever they want ( See MTBC)

          Hope that helps – basically – they vary & could all do different things outside of the base.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            1 more ‘guide’that I apply to Some of them ( Look at TENX with a 50sma and a 200sma), are beaten down & even gapped down big before basing. I View those as popping and running to the 200sma (And a gap fill). SO with TENX I bought it at the 50sma…

            THAT is where I would sell 1/2 or all at the 200sma. TENX 6 month chart shows this example clearly

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            TENX is also the one that I mentioned on a 1 year chart is a base on base set up. If it breaks above the 200sma, the second base may send it much higher.

  9. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    It will be intersting to watch how the miners come out of the overbought stochastics (5) on my charts this week, and could suggest where the next strong trend will be. It is preferable to me that GDX dosen´t come down too much and resists the pull lower, and would be a signal to buy back big positions in my miners. If it does get whacked, however, it will push back my expectations for when to take another shot with heavy positions, at least until the Dec-Jan time frame.

  10. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Look at TGB on a 3 month chart ( beauty)

    Then look at NAK on a 3 month chart. Very similar, and NAK ( Gapped and closed gap) Does have huge volume for the first 1/2 hr.

    I mentioned that I added to NAK 3times last week. This chart is set up similar to TGB short term in my opinion.
    Toays gap fill doesn’t bother me, I think it is best that it fill the gap now & not later.

  14. Edward Bernhart
    Edward Bernhart says:

    Alex, Look at our old friend REEMF. I held it so long it had mold on it. Said to myself I’ll just put a limit order to sell at .21 and on Wednesday or Thursday it hit it. I had 20K shares and knew it was being accumulated but just got impatient. Wow

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Ed,

      I did see that last week, it was on one of my wach lists – I keep my rare earth & uraniums on the same watch list . I didnt know anyone still owned it. That was a great pop Thurs and Friday.

      Now on a 1 year chart, it looks pretty good again 🙂

  15. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    SGSVF is a good miner, I used to own it a long time ago, but sold it because I didnt like the extremely low volume. It made it very hard to sell on down periods, but it has been trending higher in bullish manner, since the Dec ICL.

    Yes, it has had some deeper pull backs, but bullish Higher lows higher highs for a year now

  18. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    Time to add to INFI? I think I will wait and see if we can get push a bit lower, another down day tomorrow and I will buy. Might not get it the way these have been trading lately, but a bull flag sideways with today setting the low range would also make me a buyer in a few days even at slightly higher prices.

    • SonOfGud
      SonOfGud says:

      pierced the support to run the stops?
      may get a retest… that was the spike ‘heel’, and now we get the ‘toe’ of the shoe (often happens.. jsut compare INFI with APHB 5min charts )
      other alternatives.. APHB , having already pulled back nearly all the way, may wish to see how it acts first.. or GEVO (mentioned in comments below)
      I’m now in all 3 of these.

    • Tammie
      Tammie says:

      I know…..I’m hanging on by a thread and haven’t sold yet…..but…have had my finger on the button more than once this morning on this one….

  24. Peter
    Peter says:

    CLF on life support, ugh.

    Alex, do you have TPs for your JNUG position, or are you taking it day by day as the DC matures?

  25. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    RonB’s SRNE looking good….I think once it breaks through that $2.20-2.15/2.20 area…..maybe it’ll go to fill that up gap to $2.90….hopefully!

    • SonOfGud
      SonOfGud says:

      yup.. still in.
      its loitering with intent..
      it has a possible obstacle for pullback at 1.15ish, assuming it gets that far

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Hate complaining on an otherwise positive day but really would like to see a bit more 15 cents out of GDX on a positive day so near DCL. Clearly we’re just not going to go rocket ship mode here, but a little more juice would help. So small miners had pretty impressive day, just really GDX that was lagging (at least off my watchlist).

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      It may have to do some work first. IT is now dropping bck below the 200sma, may be doing a shake out or starting a consolidation. These often consolidate sideways for a while, look at HOS for an example of a run & sideways consolidation.

  34. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    As a stock market bull I thought I would mention that I sold some of my TQQQ today to lighten up as it appears it may be headed for a short-term dip or “DCL” as Alex would call it. I’m still holding a “core” position, just hoping to sell some now and buy back in lower. However, I have tried that in the past and usually the dip is so shallow that I end up buying back in near or above the price I sold. We’ll see what happens this time. Fingers crossed!

    Also miners are very bullish on my charts. I’m back in JNUG/NUGT again. I bot on Friday and added more on the morning dip today. I’m making more money in miners than TQQQ, which is another reason I decided to lighten up on TQQQ and free up more cash for miners.

    Good trading to all!

  36. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Anyone notice GQMNF?

    Dropped big time last week, reversed higher by 14% today. Could do an island bottom if it gaps up tomorrow (NOT A BUY RECOMMENDATION, jst may be interesting to watch).

    EXK, FSM, THM, IAG — still look like nice chart set ups.

  39. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    MBOT made a nice comeback into the end of the day – that may be good for tomorrow.

    Hey- Markets are closed already! Fast day, enjoy your evening all!

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Sure was fast, I just got up a few hours ago! 😛 Seems that picking up MBOT during intra-dsy volatility might be a pretty solid strategy. May look to add tomorrow.

        • Cason
          Cason says:

          I was also off work today. I’ll be up much earlier tomorrow. Definitely a great place to vacation and have fun but it’s so different when you have to work and do “normal life” and not just vaca time!

        • Cason
          Cason says:

          Well, ok we did take the kids to the water park today and then went to one of my fave snorkeling spots where we saw two sea turtles. So, yeah that was cool. You will have to retire one day! (Or you could trade Asian markets!)

  40. david
    david says:

    Hey is it just me? Think or swim shows daily volume on Nugt as 60 million, all other sources show 4.191 million shares? Same as Jnug TOS shows 135 million while other platforms show 8.65 million shares???? Anybody else trade with TOS?

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