Oct 17th – No Bull About It

Let’s talk about the Miners. We were expecting them to be weak and struggle early on out of the recent dcl.   Monday was interesting…

GOLD – Gold was on day 6 and has peaked on day 6 so far.

GDX- GDX peaked on day 9 and dropped below the 10sma, 50sma and volume increased on the way down. This is a swing high and looks like we will be getting our anticipated L.T. Daily Cycle.

GDXJ – GDXJ actually peaked last week and the drop Monday broke the trend line too.  This looks like a H&S forming actually.

I have been asked about ‘shorting ‘ here,  and shorting at a swing high  (L.T.) Daily cycle is fine, but it may be a rough ride if this meanders sideways and gets choppy, instead of dropping quickly.  Use a ‘stop’ above the swing  & buy some Tums & Rolaids if you do shirt this.

GDX –  Miners remain positive long term and we can look forward to a great buying opportunity.

NSRPF –  My target was $7 for NSRPF,  then a pullback could offer a better price.  Are there some Miners that ran away and maybe you were lamenting that you didn’t take a position?  They probably will be offering ‘sale ‘ prices in the future.   KL has already dropped form $15 to $13,  and NSRPF dropped from $7 to a low of $5.13 already.  It could be at $4 in the near future.

MOVING ON…

BOIL FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT – I mentioned the high short positions in NATGAS, and that this could drop down to back test the Magenta trend line in a 1-2-3-4-5 type move. It would be a buy opportunity if it showed signs of reversal or support, etc.

NATGAS – NATGAS dropped down and reversed back above the 10sma.  I went long and this is only day 5.  It is at the 50sma , and then the 200sma has to be dealt with, so it may not be a solid surge higher. My stop is a break below the trend line.

I HAD A BUNCH OF CHARTS…  Some Chartfreak readers just want to wait for the Miners to turn Bullish again and go long.  Others like trading ETFs like the UPRO, TQQQ, SOXX, etc  and have been riding those.   Still Others are traders by nature and want to scalp some trades as more active traders.  This area is for those that like to trade, so do not feel pressured to ‘over-trade’ more than you are comfortable, know what is best for you and invest accordingly.

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 So while writing the weekend report, I gathered extra charts of some trade set ups, but they didn’t make it into the weekend report for a couple of reasons.

1. Basically, I was trying to get the weekend report finished and posted by 5 p.m. Saturday, before I went out for the evening, and I basically covered all of the big picture views of the various sectors, and added some short term charts too.

2. At the same time,  I looked at the charts of trades, and I knew that some had gaps that could fill, so maybe they needed just a bit more time to prove themselves, etc.

At this point, I can post the ones I collected from Fridays trading day, along with the action that took place Monday, and we can get a better idea of  how these could play out.

STEEL

I’ll start with STEEL.  You probably recall that STEEL was in the weekend report, and I was showing how we were getting follow through on the Steel call earlier in September.  Well, I also collected many charts of the bullish jump in STEEL STOCKS on Friday.  Lets take a look at the Friday charts along with Mondays trading in those stocks.

CLF FRIDAY –  This was a BIG jump of over 10%, and really looked Bullish.  I would have mentioned that the gap could fill, and let’s watch this on Monday because that volume & break of the 200sma looks convincing.

CLF MONDAY –  CLF & OTHER STEEL STOCKS DROPPED.  My best guess would be that this could fill that gap and reverse higher, remaining bullish.  I WOULD NOT BUY IT WITHOUT THE REVERSAL THOUGH.  Un other words, I wouldn’t buy ‘the drop’, watch for a reversal.  It is also possible that it just reverses here, leaves the gap, bounces off of the 10sma and moves higher.

X –  This was X on Friday.  We saw a little shake out at the 50sma, and it reversed higher last Wednesday & Thursday.  Friday was the Pop.

X– Now it is rejected at the 200sma, and this may drop to fill the gap?  Tag the 50sma? Work its way around building steam to break that 200sma.  It already shook out at the 50sma, so it looks bullish at this point.

VALE-    This was Friday,  I was pointing out that past gaps filled on this chart, so maybe we should wait for that, but…

VALE–  Vale hardly dropped on Monday. Vale may not fill the gap, now that it is trying to regain the 50sma.

AKS MONDAY  –  Gap fill coming up?  Buy the reversal if so.

STLD WEEKLY –  This is from Friday.  This is a longer term bullish consolidation.

SHIPPERS

I had mentioned Shippers last week as acting bullishly.  I should mention that this is not something new, they are still holding up and doing well for a while now, so let’s look at some of the set ups that I liked in Shippers.

NM –  This was Friday, and I Bought NM Monday and posted that Monday a.m.  in the comments section.  Possible $2.20 – $2.30 target.

NM – Good follow through & volume.

SB –  This was Friday.  It is still a buy here, it closed up 3% more.

TNK FRIDAY –  I liked this multi week consolidation sideways, forming a bit of an inverse H&S.

TNK –  It just started breaking out on Monday. This is still a buy and should run to the 200sma.

WATCHLIST –

ABIO –  This is just one of those biotechs that I was watching.  It was a bull flag type consolidation, but is dropping to the 50sma.  Volume on the drop is light, so I may keep my eyes on this for a bullish reversal off of the 50sma.

NAK WEEKLY –  This was taken Friday when it was $2.12 ( before Mondays drop), but it is to show the big picture and support as it trends higher.  It closed at $2.05 on Monday.

PLG at 10:05 a.m.  & up 20% –  Maria called this one out in the comments ( Thx Maria), and when I looked at it, Gold & All of the miners were up too.  At this point PLG was breaking out with large volume for only 35 minutes of trading.   What happened when GOLD & MINERS SOLD OFF into the end of the day?

PLG END OF DAY – It closed up 22% and volume was huge.  This one has burned me before in the past, so I am cautious about the break out,  but I will keep this one on my daily watch list and see what happens.

One of our readers ( Thx Peter) Asked about the Real estate 3x Bull ETF  DRN.  This chart actually looks quite bullish.  It pulled back Monday, but we are near the APEX and it could break out in the future.  I would say that it is a buy if it drops to the lower trend line again. $22 area?

The General markets did not change from the Weekend report, and Oil & Natgas  also played out as expected so far.  We’ll see what the rest of the week brings our way, enjoy your Tuesday trading.

~ALEX