Fridays Trading

Friday – The final trading day of the week.  Today I want to cover Oil, Natgas, Gold & The Miners, and some trade set ups.

WTIC – In my last report I mentioned that the bounce off of the 50sma was on day 25, and that seemed too early to be a dcl in Oil. I also showed a number of Energy Stocks that do look bullish, but are not oversold and dont quite look ready to go yet, so what did we see on Thursday?  When I look at the last dcl, we had a small bounce off of the 50sma, and then a shake out drop  (Pink square).  I still wonder if this is the bounce off of the 50sma and next is a shake out drop to the dcl.  Then the OIL stocks may look closer to a low risk buy.  I’m not buying in the Oil sector yet.

NATGAS– I haven’t been trading NATGAS due to the choppy consolidation.  NATGAS inventories come out on Thursday and we saw a good POP in Natgas.  Natgas looks to be on day 3 of  a new daily cycle, as it closed above the 10 & 50sma and broke above the downtrend line. All of this choppiness has happened with NATGAS trapped under the 200sma. Maybe it has built up enough steam to blast through and put together a lasting run now.

GOLD –  Gold CAN go higher, above 1300.  This chart is not a price prediction, it’s just drawn this way as a reminder of our expectations of weakness.  I wanted to point out that GOLD may not go much higher for 8-12 days, it could just bounce around.  I am expecting the USD to put in a solid 2nd daily cycle , and this should push Gold down into a dcl.

GDX – GDX peaked on day 6 so far, and today will be day 9.  I am not expecting a rally above Sept highs, I’m expecting this to peak here or pretty soon, and then for it to roll over into a dcl as the USD rallies.

I mentioned that I already sold all of my leverage.  I can’t say whether this sector will get a good pop higher over the next couple of days ( it could), or whether we’ve seen the highs, but leverage is not something I am comfortable holding beyond this point.

I want to discuss some trades and trading

MSFT– As you can see, this is a great run by MSFT.  It has almost doubled since I called this a “Long Term BUY & HOLD” back when it was consolidating, but that is the point of this chart.  Look at those long consolidations in the boxes. I am always pointing out that the reward is great, but holding those consolidation periods is difficult and even boring at times. This is a weekly chart and those consolidations lasted for many weeks.  With that in mind…

AMD– I recommended AMD as a BUY & HOLD at the $10 area, and it is also going through a long multi week consolidation. Yes, this can be boring and difficult to endure,  but I still think that it will be rewarding, especially if we get a parabolic ramp up in the General Markets.  Notice the end of  2016 had a consolidation period too, and price ramped right up out of that one.  Now let me show you the real potential…

AMD WEEKLY POTENTIAL – Just like AAPL and NVDA – someday we’ll look back and someone will say,  “How did we miss that bull run?”  –  lol

IS TWTR A BUY & HOLD CANDIDATE?

TWTR #1 –  I believe that it is in the base stage ( Notice that AMD had one too). The problem is that we can’t tell how long the companies will base out, so some just wait for a complete break out before entering.  This looks like it broke out above that blue down trend line though, and back tested. It is still in a base, but may be ready to break higher.

TWTR #2 – It also looks ready to break out from a shorter term triangle. Look at the potential in TWTR over time.  It ran to $70 as an IPO.

TWTR #3 –  This looks like it wants to break higher shorter term too.  From $14 to $20 back to $16 and now rising.  It is not easy to buy & hold, but this does look almost set to break higher in this wedge.

TMQ–  TMQ actually broke out and ran 15% yesterday.  This spring TMQ was under 50 cents and is now over $1 again. Long boring consolidations and then a nice run higher. It looks ready to run to new  highs.

I’ve been talking about and pushing NAK for a while now, but I just wanted to cover it again, since it continues to act correctly .

NAK – Nak added on another 7% Thursday, and is reaching a ‘conservative price projection target’.  It could tag $2.25 to $2.40 actually, but …

NAK – This was my Sept 29th chart.  Longer term NAK should complete this large cup formation, as I have pointed out in the past.

NAK CURRENTLY – So even if it doesn’t make a straight line move higher, this is another longer term BUY & HOLD in my opinion.  I have stated this in the past too.  Let me give you a bigger picture view again.

NAK –  Notice how NAK makes a strong run, then consolidates for weeks, even months, and then runs again.  Look at the 2016 consolidation, it is very similar to the present one. Look at the run that followed.

And this chart I drew for my readers in August 2017. If their mine gets up & running, their prospects are stunning. NAK claims to have 70 million oz of Gold and tons of Silver, Copper, Molybdenum, etc. It will be more than a $20 stock if they can partner up and start Mining, but that will take time.

BIOTECH BASES

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My Disclaimer has been:  There are NO GUARANTEES in this sector, but certain ‘set ups’ can build energy for a rapid acceleration higher, and we have been seeing that. When I bought MTBC, for example,  it Popped and more than tripled in 2 days!  See the chart below of that day.   Yesterday INFI doubled.  The set ups are explosive, but this is not a get rich quick plan. There are risks, so position size should be reasonable,  and these trades are NOT FOR EVERY TYPE OF TRADER. They move fast in both directions.

INFI- Well, it was ready to break out back on Oct 4th here, and I mentioned that I was buying it Wednesday as it broke from this mini base on base.  Quite a few have mentioned that they bought it too…

INFI – And it Popped 123% Thursday. Many of these Bases have been exploding in this sector on positive results, and we have seen major moves in this sector as a result.  Why not look up charts of  ECYT, MTBC, INFI, MNKD, etc . for examples

So again, I have been buying positions in some of these Bases if they have a proper set up. I have been posting many charts of those bases and their set ups in past reports,  and I am still in  MBOT and a few others.   I’m not just buying to hopefully grab a 100+% explosion, but that is nice.  I am looking at these bases as possibly constructive set ups for future moves higher at a normal pace too.   Let’s discuss a few more set ups.

APHB – This was in yesterdays report, and it is a solid base that popped and pulled back last week.

CTRV – I bought this Thursday.  Why?  It is a break out followed by a back test, and then started to move higher again yesterday.  I like this set up and will see if I get the follow through higher.

ADHD –  This ride was already crazy yesterday alone.  I bought in on average around $1.13 and it took off to $1.40 for a while, then it dropped back to red and tagged the 50sma, hitting $1.04, and then moved higher and closed at $1.17.   That was ridiculous.  I am still in it, but I had to purchase some Pepto Bismol after that ride 🙂  Actually,  my position is small. Maybe 5% of my trading account was on this one.

ATNM-  I do not own this, but I like that it Popped and is BARELY selling off , and is selling on very light volume. See the chart.  A stock like this often runs to the 200sma after breaking out, and that is a good size %-Gain.

ATNM – It is possible that you’d see a back test of the 50sma, but that may not happen until after a tag of the 200sma. This is just an idea of how it could move going forward.

With the large number of stock picks and charts that I have had in my report lately,  don’t let it overwhelm you.  This is what I do –

I may start a watch list.   For example, We have seen in the past few reports  Charts of NAK, APHB, MBOT, CTRV, AMD, CRMD, etc.  I don’t buy them all, but I keep a list of them.   I may list them and rate them based on the charts that I draw up.  Put a star next to the ones you like best so you remember to check them either daily for positive activity, or through out the day.  You may just want to buy 1 or 2 Biotech base set ups that  look bullish, or wait for a break out and then enter  ( INFI had broken higher before exploded).

MBOT – I am still in MBOT for example,  and that has positive activity so far, but not always an easy ride.  Some may wait until it breaks out higher and starts a stair step pattern.  Day to day can be tough with this one, since it moves in big daily swings or it can be boring day after day.  The upside potential far outweighs the boring action to me. I’m trying to invest in this with patience.

Enjoy your Friday trading and have a great weekend !

~ALEX