Weekend Report Sept 30

In the weekend reports, I like to visit the BIG PICTURE look of various sectors and see if things remain on track with our expectations. Since my day to day reports cover the daily market action and fluctuation, let’s take a look at the Big Picture, shall we?

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SPX – I mentioned in many past reports going back to last spring that if the markets begin to enter a more parabolic move, we will not be able to see the ICLS, based on past parabolic moves.

The highly visible ICLs come from deeper sell offs, but with the recent bullishness and ‘buy the dips’ that we’ve seen in the markets, we no longer see the ICLS clearly.  The small dip / consolidations that you see above my question marks ( when considered timing -wise ) would represent where the ICLs should be.  A Steeper ramp up and less sell offs is a bull run. The big picture simply remains very bullish, until we see a change in character.

 

 

NASDAQ –  For newer readers,  this is one of a few Parabolic Nasdaq charts that I have posted. This one I posted in MAY to show the similarities of this ramp higher.  I was pointing out here the “Rough ride” for 1 year in 1999 that can come before the final ramp up.  Bull markets are not as smooth as they look in hindsight, they can buck and kick.  I wanted us to know that choppiness could also be present.

 

NASDAQ– This is the current chart and you can see that as choppy as the Nasdaq has been lately,  it is still in a very strong uptrend. This summers choppy/ sideways action hardly shows up indicating that this is still on track to move higher.

 

USD DAILY – I will switch to the DAILY USD chart, because we are witnessing the expected change.  We have an ICL that has formed with a daily swing and break out higher  ( A break above the trend line, 10 & 50sma). So we have a swing low in the daily and a swing in the Weekly charts.  Daily cycles for the dollar tend to run SHORTER that the stock markets, so day 15 could lead us down into a dcl, and that could help Gold find a daily cycle.

I would THEN expect a 2nd daily cycle in the USD to break the day 14 peak, and Gold could begin to roll over into its next DCL.   I think you can see where I am going with this, but I will obviously explain it more in the GOLD section and day to day in all of my reports. We need to be patient as this unfolds, to see how it will play out.

The BIG picture for the USD still looks like it wants to drop, and this was last weekends big picture chart of the USD. Please read this chart again, about the blue boxes.  We are under 93 now, but with an ICL in place, we expect the USD to move higher over the next month or two (or sideways).

XBI BIOTECH ETF  WEEKLY – This summer we discussed my price target of 90 after a break out and I suspected that a bull flag consolidation would take place.

XBI– Slowly but surely,  the ETF is approaching 90 and it still has a very bullish look to it  ( Big Picture). AT the 90 area, this could form a handle, as drawn with the XXXX.

LABU – SO LABU has been a rough ride, too difficult to ride from last summer to now ( I sold mine for decent gains a while back), but if the XBI goes to 90 this inverse H&S could run to 100 in my opinion.  This is my chart in a report from Sept 25, as a bullish set up. It is now 85.50.  In AUGUST  XBI went from roughly $75 to $85, LABU went from  $55 to $80.

 

WTIC –  Oil has been bullish after putting in a YCL / ICL in July and I believe it is still a bullish set up.  Oil & Energy stocks have done very well.

 

WTIC – The daily peaked on day 19 and Friday tagged the 10sma, we may only see a 1/2 cycle low here, since Oils daily cycles can be 50 days long. I think that OIL has more upside, so Oil & Energy stocks have been mentioned in the daily reports. This may run sideways to the new trend line from the low and Sept 11 dip.

 

HOS – As an example, I bought HOS along the 50sma and sold it when it broke out above the 200sma.  I was thinking that I have seen these drop and crawl along the 200sma repeatedly, so I would re-buy if it did that.  It has done that, so I bought this Friday and posted that in the comments section. THIS CAN STILL CRAWL or even drop further, but I like the sector and this stock moves quickly.  Once it gets going upside, it will be difficult to enter, in my opinion.

ANW – I am eyeing this $5 stock as a possible long base that just broke above the 50sma after a long crawl along it. I almost bought this Friday late in the day, but I wanted to read up on that huge GAP DOWN in May and see why that happened. I still haven’t had time to do that this weekend.

STEEL –  Steels consolidation ( and Copper too) could be ending, so I am again looking at X, CLF, SID, AKS, SCHN, ZEUS, etc – also TGB, HBM, FCX, SCCO, etc.

SID- I liked SID Friday & posted this in the comments, but it is almost too perfect.  Look again at STEELS chart above. If that has 1 more drop toward the 50sma,  Sid may do a quick ‘shake out’, so I want to wait a bit more ( or start a small position & add on a dip or break out higher).

 

GOLD, SILVER, AND MINERS

 

GOLD – Deep in the timing for a dcl, we are looking for one to form any day now, and the USD dipping down may help.

 

GOLD WEEKLY  – Bigger picture-   Yes, I hate the dip into an ICL when I am planning on a strong bull run too, but with the USD putting in an ICL, we now may need to recognize that Gold can eventually roll over after the next bounce.  An eventual ICL drop is NOT saying that GOLD has to sell off  in a bad way. A back test of this trend line should be expected, so maybe that is what the ICL will do.  These dips are normal in Bull markets too,  take a look at the Green arrows in the 2009-2012 Bull Run. Dips were normal. Currently we have an ICL in 2015, a higher ICL in 2016, and another higher ICL in July 2017. After a back test, we could make a run for the 2016 highs and then break them.

SILVER -This Big Picture also looks bullish.

GDX –  I used this chart to point out that I DO expect a bounce  (dcl) when the USD dips down.

GDX – If we have a day 12 peak, this was where the GDX was 12 days ago, so maybe we run this high or higher.  What about the bigger picture with the drop that follows however?

GDX – I can picture it this way. If we get ANOTHER daily cycle after this one, it would extend the ICL out to November or December, and both are normal timing for an ICL from Julys lows.

GDX- Bigger picture.

DUST – If we get our GDX DCL, this is what DUST looks like at this point.

 

 

GDX BIGGER PICTURE – LETS GO BACK TO THIS CHART FOR A MOMENT. A LONG CONSOLIDATION WITH DAILY CYCLES EVIDENT.

I hear people say things like,  ” This bouncing around is not normal”  “This is weakness and not a good sign for the Bull Market in Gold!!“.

HUI – 2006-2007 – A LONG consolidation with daily cycles evident.  I hear people say things like,  ” This is not normal”  “This is weakness and not a good sign for the Bull”.   🙂  They are guessing and letting their emotions and frustration get to them. They are not accurately reading what is taking place.

HUI – Look how many peaks a dips there were then. Frustrating?  Yes. This was very tricky at times, especially when waiting for a dcl  (double bottoms, false starts, etc), but the deepest sell off shake out into August lows of 2007 was the ICL to buy after such a consolidation.

 

MINERS BIG PICTURE – BULLISH OR BEARISH?

 

 

GSS Daily –  That was a huge run from $0.14 cents to $1.13 and the consolidation has been mostly sideways.

GSS – Very Bullish looking potential. The pull back from the 2016 run has been sideways. Please do not ask me what a ‘Ramp Pup’ is  🙂  I meant  2016 ‘Ramp Up’ higher.

 

NAK– Though there is a possibility that NAK could drop in an a-b-c fashion, there is also a possibility that the shake out at the 50sma is all it drops. Let’s look at the big picture.

NAK –  NAK bounced right off of the 10 & 50 weekly MA combination last week. Big picture bullish after a huge run on 2016 from $0.20 cents to $3.50ish. Can you picture this forming a large Cup?

 NAK – Maybe this will help.  The chart is still Big Picture bullish, whether this plays out this way or not.

 

CRMD – I owned this a while back, but I think I bought it too early. I think it was August and I got stopped out on that drop. Suddenly it looks like it wants to join that XBI and move higher again.

INFI – This chart looks great. I actually noticed it Friday when it was only up 10 cents, but it had big volume. I didn’t buy it then, but I should have and still may.  This chart looks quite promising.

 

That is our weekend wrap up, Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

 

~ALEX

 

 

I am doing some extra research this weekend related to Gold, Miners, and USD to try to grasp better what may be happening currently. Things still look bullish in many ways, and as I have pointed out, several individual Miners still look bullish, despite the ICL in the USD 14 days ago.

I will share anything that I find of interest in the next report.