Weekend Wrap Up – Sept 17

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Next week we have the FOMC Meeting, so lets see what the markets have done as we slowly move toward that date with the Fed Decision.

 

NASDAQ – The NASDAQ put in the low on August 21 and from there has moved higher and then sideways over the past 2 weeks. It is on day 18.  If you are long, you would want to raise stops to at least the 50sma, in my opinion, to lock in small gains and hopefully ride it even higher.

 

SPX –  We have a couple of open gaps on the SPX and I do think that these will fill as the markets drop into the next dcl.  Notice how prior gaps have filled. These markets can go higher into ( This is just a Guess ) Day 25 or more, so things could get interesting after the Fed decision.

REMINDER:  In my AUGUST 11th chart  –  I was pointing out that we get ICLs on a regular basis  ( like every 6 months). These are Deeper corrections that help to clear bullish sentiment.  We are well overdue for one of these sell offs, but if the markets go into a Bullish Parabolic move, then ICLs will not be visible.   Right now, you can see on this older chart what I am talking about. Will we finally sell off after the Fed Mtg?  PERSONALLY I DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL SURPRISES WITH THE FED MEETING, so the markets may remain bullish until the next drop into the dcl.

 

USD– The USD has broken support, is due for an ICL too, and then a rally.  That would produce a shake out or recovery temporarily – HOWEVER- if this remains weak after the Fed Mtg, it may drop the way it climbed higher in 2014  ( Bullish for Gold).  Please read the chart.  I imagine if the USD can climb like that, it can fall like that.

 

 

WTIC –  I’ve been discussing Oils bullish set up with an ICL / YCL (Yearly Cycle Low), and now a DCL in place. Oil is breaking higher on the weekly chart too.

 

NATGAS – The NATGAS CHART has formed a large triangle consolidation. It looks bullish on the daily charts, so I would expect it to move higher over time.  That finally places OIL & GAS stocks in a bullish light.

XLE – And the XLE took off out of the Aug 21st lows.   This may be a complete 1-2-3-4-5 and a rest now,  or it may only be 1-2-3 with a 4-5 to follow.  I have found that much like the Miners,  after bottoming out, Individual Oil & Gas stocks will react in their own patterns and time frames, so your Oil stocks may continue higher , even if the XLE pauses. The Stocks do look bullish.

 

GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

 

GOLD WEEKLY #1–  I tried to look for patterns of support, resistance, channels, and so on, and when it gets like this, I dont find it helpful in a big way, but you can see basic support levels…

 

GOLD WEEKLY #2– A basic technical analysis chart still shows a back test of the $1300 area would be a normal 2 week sell off to the 10 MA weekly. That would be a drop during FED Week, either before or after the Fed Mtg.  Feb had a 2 week sell off, and April had a 2 week sell off.

 

GOLD DAILY – We are due for a dcl, but where will Gold finish selling off?  This chart only shows $1320 as a low, but Gold did hit $1315 Thursday , as seen in Fridays report. That would have been close to a tag of the Magenta line, similar to Aug 8th.

SILVER – Silver has moved higher, dip, higher, sideways dip, higher , sideways dip. The stochastics does not have to go to the bottom 20 line during a bull run, but often does in normal pullbacks.

 

3 GDX CHARTS

 

GDX #1 – GDX could drop all the way down to the back test area & 50sma. I have it on day 27 based on the Aug 8th dcl call, and dcls come anywhere from now to into the 30’s lately.  On a FED Week, this could easily hit the 50sma by day 30 – 32.  That would be Wed -Friday of this week.   We have to just see how things play out.

 

GDX #2  WARNING – If GDX rallies into the Fed Mtg on Monday , Tuesday, & Wednesday, we could still get this common sell off pattern after the Fed. This would be very tricky if one added leverage at ‘a’, so I may not be adding leverage unless I get a clear idea of where the DCL is.

 

GDX #3 – GDX has been selling off rather steadily, and that could continue.  I have seen people buying JNUG & NUGT on Stocktwits all last week and regretting it. Steady selling could continue in Fed Week and lead it to the 50sma.

You can see that during this sell off, all we can do is watch how things unfold and allow this sell off to complete its course. Holding individual miners at this time has not been painful. Many are still holding up well, as seen in last weeks reports and Fridays report.

 

This is the weekend wrap up, as we head into a Fed Week. I plan on doing a bit of research after this and planning on giving more advice regarding the Fed Mtg in Tuesday mornings report. I do NOT really expect any big surprise with the Fed Decision.  Enjoy the rest of your weekend and we will look forward to next weeks Market action.

 

~ALEX

 

Sidenote:

 I am in Florida at this time and although we do have Electricity , we do NOT have Cable or Internet where I am staying yet.  I also can not just tether my laptop to my phone & use my data, because the nearest cell Towers themselves were damaged and internet through the phone is also very slow or non-existent at times. They have rolled in temporary mobile Cell towers, but cell phone internet is weak.

 Please understand that this is a situation that is beyond my control, but also it may improve as the week goes on.  I actually travelled to write this report at a location quite far from where I am staying.   I will do my very best to get the reports out this week, and maybe internet will be restored where I am staying, but they are promising nothing.  I will at least make sure we get our next scheduled report On Tuesday morning, before the Fed Mtg Wednesday for guidance, even if it means traveling to do so. That said, the daily reports may have to be shorter and concise this week under these current circumstances.   This is ONLY taking place this week, I will be up and running as usual by the next weekend report.

Thanks you for your patience.

Important note: As I mentioned, I DO NOT really expect any surprises with the Fed rate Hike Decision, but we do almost always get some volatility or over reaction.  The initial reaction may or may not gain traction by means of ‘follow through’ the next day, if my memory serves me well. I think we will see a little volatility as usual, and then things will calm down and finish their course.

 

MBOT – The base may be finished, it may be still playing out, but that tiny move is 15%. Volume swells can precede a nice move.  Can you imagine a strong move higher, if that comes? 🙂  (Disclaimer: This can continue sideways and keep basing too)

ENPH – Please read the chart

I am riding to the former highs and might sell some at $2.00 area if it gets there, but I like the 5 yr weekly chart and may try to hold a good amount longer. This company was in the Teens in 2013 – 2014 and lately they have been working with solar companies and seem to be doing well. As business picks up, so has this stock. 70 cents to $1.40  ($1 to $2)  could just be the start.

 

114 replies
    • Edward Bernhart
      Edward Bernhart says:

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      Another major way cell phones can potentially impact you is through their effect on your mitochondria within your cells.

      Most of your cells have several hundred mitochondria. Over 90 percent of the energy that your body needs to function properly comes from the mitochondria, so their well-being is essential to your energy production.

      Not only are they your body’s primary source of energy, your cells’ mitochondria determine the speed at which your body ages. If your mitochondria are working optimally, your body ages at a normal rate.

      Researchers have discovered that the radiation from cell phones can harm your mitochondria, including flipping certain genes within the mitochondria.

      As important as your mitochondria are to your health, this potential damaging effect on genes is very concerning to me.”

  2. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    The final chart in the report was added by email request after I released this report, so you will see ENPH in the report now… Question was, “I bought this when you did, where do I sell. I sold 1/2 at the 200sma”.

    I am riding to the former highs and might sell some at $2.00 area if it gets there, but I like the 5 yr weekly chart and may try to hold a good amount longer. This company was in the Teens in 2013 – 2014 and lately they have been working with solar companies and seem to be doing well. As business picks up, so has this stock. $1 to $2 could just be the start.

  3. Tiger5
    Tiger5 says:

    Thank you CF for always going above and beyond for all of us! I don’t know any other writer that would go out of his way to travel long distances just to get a report out. You are truly a stand up guy! I hope all is well for you and others in Florida. May recovery come quickly!

  5. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    So possibly another buck to the downside on GDX? I can live with that. I will just honor my stops in each individual miner, perhaps they won´t even stop out, who knows? So far, only MUX was a casualty last week.

    Good luck in Florida, CF.

  6. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    So….PRTO chart looks very similar to ARWR….ARWR had that big gap up to the top that Alex thought might go back and get filled and it’s been working on it…..PRTO has an even bigger gap up….wow, if that would go up to get filled like ARWR has been working on…!

  8. nancytheartist
    nancytheartist says:

    Maria! Hurricane Maria is now threatening to take a similar track to Irma. Those poor islands in the path again. I just got my house repairs finished today. Please….push your namesake north, away from any US coasts, and out to sea. Maybe she will listen to you!

  10. Geoff
    Geoff says:

    Hi CF. Since I signed up you have on several occasions made reference to “If the markets go into a Bullish
    Parabolic Move.” When you’ve returned back home would you like to share your thoughts on that
    subject with us.

  13. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    I´m not putting any money to work today as yet, though it feels like the type of day I should be buying. I will hit the gym and run some errands first, see what presents later on. It would be better if GDX could get down to that $23.15 level, now that it looks to have a little momentum to the downside. I still have everything else, not close to stopping out on those positions.

    • Hawaiifive0
      Hawaiifive0 says:

      I don’t see that. It started today at 4.46 and on 9/8 the high was 4.50. Maybe i don’t understand gap as well as I should.

    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      Found the ALO news:
      Initiating a $16 million underground decline and exploration program
      Exploring the extension of the high-grade breccia mineralization and skarn target
      Permitting of the decline approved by SEMARNAT
      Receiving detailed bid proposals from contract miners during September 2017
      Mobilizing of the contractor expected to commence in October 2017
      Initiating an additional $1.8 million surface exploration program targeting a zone north of the proposed pit
      Drilling underway to twin 11 holes (2,000 metres) for metallurgical testing

  18. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    I don’t like to “poop in the punch bowl” but as someone who lost a LOT of money in the past by “picking my bottom” in miners I just want to post that my charts are still very bearish for miners, it is likely that there is still MORE downside ahead for miners (GDX/GDXJ) even from today’s low levels. So be careful buying this dip.

    As always, check your own charts and make your own trading decisions, and of course, follow Alex!

    Just my two cents … https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/97b39c0f52bb54d7a81d91ddc8df4b2623e238b4283730b39131f94defe18198.gif

      • Steve Tytler
        Steve Tytler says:

        SOG, good point. I should have clarified, I mean SHORT-term bearish. I never make long term price predictions, I’m a “trend follower” and my charts show that the current trend is DOWN. But it can turn bullish in a day or two. The Fed meeting could be a catalyst for a reversal, but we won’t know until we see it. I’m just warning that while today’s drop looks like a good dip buying opportunity, miners will likely (but not for sure) be lower over the next day or two … that’s about as far out as I ever try to forecast.

          • Steve Tytler
            Steve Tytler says:

            It’s even possible that a STRONG reversal today could change the down trend, but I personally never try to catch the bottom, I always wait until the trend is headed back up, usually a day or two after the bottom. All I am saying is that RIGHT NOW there is a strong downward bias to prices for miners so be careful buying in a down trend. Alex is GREAT at catching bottoms, so if he says miners have bottomed follow him not me! 🙂

  24. Cason
    Cason says:

    Low 23s on GDX – will start buying when we get there. Doesn’t look like it will take much longer either. Will go heavy once DCL is confirmed.

    • Ralph Wiederzane
      Ralph Wiederzane says:

      I am thinking the same thing. The wheels are coming off at the moment, but plan to add down at the 50 day MA on GDX if it gets there, or on way up if it turns higher instead, before the end of the week.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        I’m trying to keep the longer term concepts and plan in mind and understand so that the current selling doesn’t scare me off when it’s time to buy!

    • SonOfGud
      SonOfGud says:

      thats what i was alluding to end of last month, with those 9day charts.. they looked more like 2011 tops than 2016 bottoms.

        • SonOfGud
          SonOfGud says:

          I agree, but patterns which look like tops will have to play out until they invalidate… history non-repeating, but rhyming etc etc.
          Think we are in a wave 2(or B) pullback since the 2016 top, and that is obviously different from conditions which existed in 2011

  31. EIfion Jones
    EIfion Jones says:

    Hi Guys
    Just be patient for two more days, a major opportunity is coming our way in miners followed by gold and silver a few days later

    • Tammie
      Tammie says:

      Hey Elfion….yes, I’m trying to be patient a few more days….it’s hard but I’m waiting! Hoping it will be a great opportunity like you mentioned 🙂 I have no miners/gold/silver right now…

  32. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    Cruising around the internet, I a seeing lots of people still looking to buy miners soon (including me), not a great sign. Not only that, we all are looking at the same area to start purchasing, the low $23 area on GDX.

    My bet is either it dosen´t get there so we don´t get to buy, or if it gets there, we will soon wish we didn´t buy, bc we aren´t al going to make money with the obvious calls.

    • Steve Tytler
      Steve Tytler says:

      Ralph, looking my daily charts I see that NUGT looks like it bounced off the 50% Fib retrace before reversing and JNUG came close to its 61.8% Fib retrace and then reversed. NUGT is currently a “buy” on my 15 min chart and JNUG is close, but I personally will not buy here. As you say, those are obvious “buy the dip” points for lots of PM traders. This MAY be the bottom, but as I posted previously I like to wait until AFTER the bottom is in before I buy to avoid draw downs. Many times over the years, I bought what I THOUGHT was the bottom, only to see the bottom fall out. Time will tell.

  36. Jeff
    Jeff says:

    I went from 50% to 12% in miners this morning. Sold most of it before the opening bell. Going back into wait and see mode.

  37. Cal Staggers
    Cal Staggers says:

    Hi Alex –
    Sounds like you may not be able to do so, but if/when you get a chance, I’d appreciate your taking a quick look to see if you have an opinion of some past individual names that you’ve covered. They’re flirting with or may be just below possible stops:
    AG
    AUY
    GSS
    MUX
    Thanks!

      • Ralph Wiederzane
        Ralph Wiederzane says:

        Seems that way, I was stopped out recently. Maybe this is the news that made it underperform recently and it can start trading like the group again once GDX can turn higher.

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