Hey, Look! Surprises To The Upside!

 

Actually, we were expecting higher prices in many of the Market sectors yesterday, so this Green Board that I captured Thursday afternoon was a welcome sight. Let’s discuss these GREEN market Sectors and some Stocks.

 

XBI –  Continues higher, and when it broke above the magenta line, I said that my first target was that $90 area.  It stalled when the general markets corrected, but I believe we are back on track.

WTIC – Tuesday we were on day 48 , and due for a dcl. That was pointed out as a ‘shake out’ to get those buying the tag of the 50sma to sell and buy back in later.

WTIC – We did not get the follow through higher on Wednesday after inventory reports, and that surprised me, but we did get it Thursday. This should be the low on the 1st daily cycle and the start of the 2nd one.

GUSH – I pointed out this low risk entry  (in a very high risk 3x etf)  for GUSH on Tuesday just under $16.

GUSH – Gush is now breaking higher with OIL. I believe that this has a decent run higher ahead of it, but  even s mall scalp to $19,  the 50sma, would be good.

NATGAS –  NATGAS was setting up bullishly too, I mentioned BOIL & UGAZ for the higher risk traders too.

NATGAS – Thats a nice high volume pop

UGAZ – And also on Tuesday UGAZ & BOIL were Pushing against their 50 sma. I expected a break out and this could be bought for a scalp trade, or wait for a break.

UGAZ – And yesterday, after the NATGAS inventory report  was released,  a Nice pop came into UGAZ & BOIL too.

 

 

 

 

The GOLD expectation was a possible A-B-C drop to that $1290- $1300 back test

 

GOLD – That drop to ‘c’ seems to have happened overnight on Wednesday.  Gold then moved higher yesterday. This could be a short term double top because…

 

On the daily chart, Gold is in an upward sloping channel, but is already at the top again.

GOLD – So far, this move higher out of the ICL has been very steady and bullish.

GOLD –  We got a tiny back test immediately after breaking out at the 50sma ( day 21),  I hope that that was enough so we dont have to revisit this area again.

2 charts of GDX

GDX #1-  This MIGHT just run higher, matching the run from Dec to February, with small pullbacks along the way.  This would then be forming a giant cup. This would be a bumpy ride, not a straight shot higher every day.  OR…

GDX  #2-  It is absolutely normal to expect that a back test could come, so let’s just keep that in the back of our minds as this plays out.  Buying & holding miners at this point has been a good trade.  If the move unfolds like the chart ABOVE instead, our Miners will just continue to grow. I will discuss that.

 

I WANTED TO GO BACK AND LOOK AT A STOCK LIKE CDE ON IT’S RUN HIGHER IN 2016.  THIS CAN HELP US TO SEE WHETHER THE CURRENT MOVE IS SIMILAR TO THE 2016 RUN OR NOT. THESE ARE OLDER CHARTS FROM THE 2016 RUN, SO YOU CAN IGNORE THE WRITING ON THE CHART.

 

CDE 2016 – Notice how CDE, as it was coming out of the lows, moved higher to the 50sma and stalled, then pushed above it, and next had a dip to test the 50sma. From there we see it move to the 200sma, then it ran along it for days. No major pullbacks along the way, just higher, sideways, higher, sideways.  WILL WE SEE THAT NOW? I THINK THAT SOME MINERS ARE MOVING LIKE THAT. IF SO , YOU WANT TO OWN SOME MINERS FOR THE RIDE. We also had strong reversals or dojis that did NOT lead to a long sell off ( GREEN CIRCLES).  We have seen that a couple of time recently too.

 

CDE 2016 – Please notice that there WERE multi day pullbacks, but for the most part, it rode the 10sma higher. I do see a few small 3 & 4 day pullbacks / sideways moves, so it may be best to ignore the wiggles and apparent weak days if we get into this type of a move higher.

 This weekend in the weekend report, I am going to go over this in detail. I have found some interesting similarities ( so far) with what we have right now.  That could help us to see how this may play out going forward. It looks pretty good, at this point.  Enjoy your Friday trading, and I have a large number of charts below for you to look over. Have a great Friday and a great weekend!

 

 

~ALEX

 

 

NAK – I added yesterday as overtook that 200sma again.  NAK has reacted around the moving averages as expected, but still looks bullish. Miners & Metals sectors have been bullish.

WRN –  I also Bought WRN here, since it is finding support on the 50sma.

AUY– Is this how Miners are going to progress? If so, you just want to own a small basket and accept the wiggles.  Notice that it goes higher, then mainly sideways, and then higher again. I wanted to point out how AUY ( red Arrows) Moved at the 50sma and the 200sma too, and then we’ll examine other Miners currently working in those areas…

GSS –  GSS broke the 50sma, back tested it ( the 1st Buy), and now pushed above the 200sma. I added again yesterday, even though this could drop. My thinking is that price may never go below this area again, and if it does, the 50 should hold it.

BTG – Is also doing battle at the 50 & 200sma and winning as of Thursday.

 

 

CDE – CDE has broken above the 50sma and  pushed against the 200sma and then pulled back. I would buy it above the 50sma, and also if it successfully breaks above the 200sma. You can see huge potential in this one if it gets going again.

 

MUX – MUX broke above the 50sma and sits in that area right now. Mux looks to have had a shake out, since it regained that lower trend line. It is recovering  and is cheap at the lows.

AKG-  So far,  that was a pretty big move already, but it looks like it has a lot further to go in a bull market.  It pushes against the 50sma currently

 

IPI – I bought this break out, but with IPI , we did have seen a false break out and a drop to the 50sma in May-June. ( green writing). I will add at the 50sma too, if we drop there. If someone buys this break out, your stop can be below the Magenta line.

IPI REMINDER –  BIG PICTURE POTENTIAL

 

AMD – This held up nicely on the 200sma and looks ready to break out above the 50sma. This buy would place a stop under the 200sma.

GRPN & PXLW  from yesterdays report broke higher too, but still look like nice charts for the longer term.

169 replies
  1. Hawaiifive0
    Hawaiifive0 says:

    Thanks Alex. Great report. I especially like buying close to the bottom. GUSH, ALO, DRD, for example and just letting them ride. That to me is somewhat easier then buying high and/or buying breakouts after they occur. One of the problems, I had in Hawaii was having to buy late after the move had already occurred in the morning or getting lucky enough to have a late move. The only other solution would have been to get up at about 2;30 A.M. I wonder how Cason will deal with this.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      That said, I almost put GSV in the report. It didnt react to Golds push higher yesterday, but it is still good looking. It is sitting around support at the 50sma, and is not very far off of its lows. See a 6 month chart with a 50sma.

      That trading from the west coast or Hawaii does seem very difficult. I would have to anticipate a move & buy early ( I do that now a lot. For example: If I see SILVER pushing on that 200sma day after day, I buy it before the break out. The last chart in the report is AMD, I would just have to buy that bouncing off of the green line 200sma, rather than wait for an all clear above the 200 & 50sma). Not easy when you cant watch it at the open the next day though, that’s for sure.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I dont have an exit strategy – I am in the accumulation mind set since the early summer, expecting it to move to former highs eventually. I would probably stop out under the 50sma, but the 200sma was just re-gained and I know that that might be lost again too.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Thanks, and Yes, I was looking for a few that seem to be mimicking more of a surprises to the upside type move too. I noticed that CDE in 2016 kept throwing in those strong reversals, but the selling never really had follow through, so I will be looking for that in some stocks going forward and sharing it with the readers if I find that.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      That is the hard part with Gold & Miners- we have all seen the surprises to the downside enough ( over & over again, right?) to really hinder our confidence. So far, confidence is building going forward 🙂

  2. RonB
    RonB says:

    Alex or anyone are you seeing a discrepancy between gold and silver. It seems to me that silver is lagging. Did someone post on this the other day?

  3. Cal Staggers
    Cal Staggers says:

    PM & miners reacted nicely to the employment report – glad I went ahead and added to GDX/J yesterday.
    Now where to add again? I generally use ETFs instead of individual miners, but with your wonderful basket of miners in this report, Alex, I may create my own “ETF” – Thanks for the great ideas!

    Edit: Gold futures hit your first target of 1333 this morning, Alex

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      And there is nothing wrong with ETFs, I have just found personally that my gains are better with my on basket of juniors.

      The one bad thing is when you only own say 2 or 3 Juniors, and 1 does a public offering and sells down 12% in one day. Something like that can hurt, but often we forget that by the time they do a public offering, they are up 80% off of the lows, so we feel like we had a big loss, but only if we were recent buyers.

      I try to keep 5 Miners or so to avoid the hit. I got hit with GPL last year, but it recovered nicely in time & I got back in and made more that enough back.

      • Cal Staggers
        Cal Staggers says:

        Thanks for this, Alex!
        I have a feel for what time of day to buy GDX/J (from successes AND failures) – do you have time(s) of the day that you look at most when buying these small individual miners?

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Not really, they vary, but one thing that I have found is that a gap open at the morning can often close around mid day and then buyers step back in going into the close ( Final 2 hrs or so).
          I look at intraday charts to see if I can see signs of a tunrn back higher using 15,30,60 minute charts.

          Sometimes the gap open closes, keeps dropping, and we have that 2 or 3 day pullback to deal with, then I just flip back to a daily chart, maybe watch that 10sma & 50sma. It is tricky, and often more work than necessary if we are in a bull run. The dips really do go away eventually if that is the case 🙂

          • Cal Staggers
            Cal Staggers says:

            thanks, Alex – the miners you listed in today’s report have close stops, which is nice. AKG bumped into the 50D MA you mentioned. Frankly, since I believe the bull market in miners has resumed, I can just buy the ones you listed. In a couple of months, these dips won’t matter

  4. dialogueuser
    dialogueuser says:

    Alex – any thoughts about the strength of precious metals during September to December. Can often be a tricky period for PMs…

  5. RonB
    RonB says:

    My post was late yesterday, so just in case someone did not see it, I went to the Canadian listed version of WRN and found much higher volume for 6 of the last 7 days – like double and yesterday was triple. It is being traded in dark pools which is a bit surprising for a low volume low price stock, but my order did not show up on the charts until well after the fact.

      • nancytheartist
        nancytheartist says:

        Thanks…I am finally green and getting scared…oh, wait…scared because I am going to have a tooth pulled out shortly! Yikes. So Bay, can you suggest a target area? It is over the 200 finally. Need some volume!

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Let me just add, I don’t want to keep someone in a stock when they want to sell and break even, but the weekly chart suggests a nice run higher, and in line with what SOG said….this could eventually go to the Feb highs if you look at it on a weekly chart.

            How it gets there ( Choppy?) is always the problem 🙂

          • nancytheartist
            nancytheartist says:

            Thanks for the reply CF. I will hang on a bit longer. I am just getting antsy to get some gains locked in somewhere. I am usually really patient, but this has been a challenge. Not like early 2016 when I joined you and enjoyed that ride!

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            I totally understand, we have been in choppier waters lately ( Seasick), but there is a possibility that with Metals ( Commodities() and Miners, we may be seeing similar moves to that time period of 2016.
            too early to tell, and you can always get back in, but the pullbacks are shallow now again ( See TGB, GGB, SID, HBM, ETC) Since July lows.

  6. Edward Bernhart
    Edward Bernhart says:

    Is anyone trading CVVUF (Canalaska Uranium)? In my Fidelity account I habitually have difficulty in having it listed and must search for a current price.

  7. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    Day by day, my stock screener for miners has another name that pops up as trading above both the 200 and 50 MA´s, signalling confirmed uptrends. Also, my long term charts flashed a buy in MUX this morning, happy to see it and ready to buy as it was one of my best trades in the 2016 run. Already started small buys this morning as I intend to have a very large position as a percentage of my accounts over the next couple weeks. Even though I am well stocked in other miners, I must say I would not mind a good two day walloping to the downside to let me load up on MUX and a couple others, but that might not happen.

  8. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    Alex has really been in sync with the miners lately, not just callling long or short, but having a good measure of the relative strength or weakness. I´m happy he is seeing parallels to the 2016 bull, I am thinking the same, and it would be great to have another chance at a move like that. When I pull up a long term chart, that run dosen´t look all the special, but it was the second best trading time of my 25 year career, second only to the ´99 dotcom craziness! Let´s hope we see 2016 type action in the miners again.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      That run in 2016 was so nice. I was able to ride many up, sell some and enter laggers just starting up…it was like juggling helium balloons for months, unlike juggling bowling balls with spikes in them, as is often the case with Miners. Sweet!!

  9. Hawaiifive0
    Hawaiifive0 says:

    It looks like my GUSH trade is starting to work. I bought pre-market at 17.04 only to see a big drop. Glad I held now. I almost sold.

    • RonB
      RonB says:

      Me too. with the volitility of these 3x I buy a smaller position and keep my stops back further. I probably turn it into a 2x, but I hate getting stopped in a market like this

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        exactly – A stop under the 10sma on Gush was a big drop, but wouldn’t get hit and now it is off and running again.

        My view is that Smaller positions can keep you less sensitive to the wiggles, because the smaller position = smaller risk, even though it is in a risky trade 🙂

  10. Edward Bernhart
    Edward Bernhart says:

    Trying to decide to get back in CDE after the report. The drop on July 27th from 9.0/sh. to 7.8 at earnings does not look like much on the chart but in real time it was a hair-raising experience for me. I guess the question is how long to the markets remember?

    • Hawaiifive0
      Hawaiifive0 says:

      I went for it this morning in pre-market and got in at 8.78. I think it will base along sideways and then go up, but I could be wrong.

    • Nord
      Nord says:

      Glad i got out of natgas before the report. Looking now at the 3.1 zone for resistance. I dont think the downward cycle has completed just yet. 2-3 interesting weeks ahead.

  11. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    anyone talking GGB and SID? Sheesh with the moves!
    And Maria, HIMX in 10.16 out 10.42 market.. Annnnnnd Got rocked on a TVIX scalp.. so right around breakeven* on the day 🙁

  12. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I cannot emphasize enough what WRN is doing today and with very strong volume. $1.70 initial price target over time ( See the weekly chart) , but breaking that could lead to greater gains

  13. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    In support of Alex´s idea the bull might not give latecomers a clear, easy entry, I just went back and looked at how often stochastics got oversold in the 2016 bull, both on the daily and weekly charts.

    I was surprised to see that not only did the weekly charts never get oversold stochastics (set on only 5, not the usual 14, so should get oversold more often), even the daily charts on had two occurrences int he 6 months or so. Actually, one was clearly oversold the other only came close.

    This was an extraordinary market move so not likely to play out the exact same way, but I point it out since we are seeing many other similarities at the moment, like individual stocks taking their ¨turn¨.

    The takeaway is I am not going to wait for deep pullbacks, at this stage I prefer to pay up and will have to risk that miners pull back sharply, knowing that it is pretty clear now the trend is up so will see higher prices if I can hold on.

    I´m already at 65% invested and with respectable unrealized gains, so don´t feel too bad doing some buying today on my way to 100%, even as I feel we are due for a break. Surprises come to the upside. I also like that some other newsletter guys we all know have already jumped back on the sidelines or reduced exposure. They also did this WAY too early in 2016, thus missed most of the move with any good size positions that would make a difference.

  14. JT
    JT says:

    Days like today I feel like I should sell, because I’m sitting here admiring my account gains. But when I check each chart, they don’t look overbought, and in fact look like they are just starting.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      EXACTLY… “when to sell” or is it OK to ride the ups and downs and hope for a trending move?
      Many that were red earlier went green again ( Even NAK, and that was down almost 10 cents at one point).

      When in doubt, I sell something, but not everything 🙂 Today I’m pretty much just riding everything.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Same place, IT. We hear you. I’ve done that before – smiled at gains and then wondered what the heck happened the next week. But this time it’s different?!

  15. RonB
    RonB says:

    Some of the recent strong miners are taking a breather – IMG.TO, PAAS, RGLD, SA, IPI – it leads me to believe it is the hot-to-trot money that is taking a turn at the PM’s that are moving today, and in a day or two it will move on to something else. The constant rotation.

  16. SonOfGud
    SonOfGud says:

    don’t wanna p*ss on anyone’s parades .. but we are not out the woods just yet i fear.
    we are at a crucial point.. almost identical in AXU to 2011’s moving average topping pattern.
    current WRN pattern very similar, but no data going back far enough to compare.
    if this point can be cleared without repeating the drop, i would suggest the bull is on.
    9day charts in AXU & WRN….
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b81003c13f2f7db15fa39317f079ea7ab6e42dbc79d177d4c54851b724e540fe.jpg
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0dfe1aacb6f2f4f166f1d36484cf1eb0127397ba4df53e8a2c303fa48b43cf67.jpg

  17. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I was looking to sell a position or two, and had trouble fining a set up that I didnt still want to hold on to.

    ENPH or GMO came up- but now ENPH is suddenly moving higher and I want to stay in that one too (Solar).
    GMO has light volume, but it looks like a mini cup & handle and we saw what SIDS mini cup & handle did…so I have not sold anything today .

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        I’ve been watching AG & EXK and I do think that they are going to recover.
        AG is at resistance now, but with all things turning bullish, I think the lows are in & it wants to break out & move higher too. It currently might battle that 50sma first.

        • Cal Staggers
          Cal Staggers says:

          Thanks
          I was trying to think like Alex – not knowing if the 10d ma crossing above the 20d, and them both curling up was going to win you over, OR if you would wait on the 50d
          I’m learning!

          Also, 127 slow & steady comments so far on a Friday – not a blast all at once. Looks similar to your slow-motion breakout!

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Sometimes I front run a position if the sector itself is acing bullishly- so you were thinking like me.
            I am not opposed to taking a position if a Miner is near the lows, and the sector is on fire- but I often wait for a sign of strength or life. AG has been perking up a bit 🙂 I dont own it, yet, but thats because I own more positions that I like to.

  18. Cason
    Cason says:

    Hoping for a late afternoon (well, morning here!!) quick pop in GDX and friends before close. If so will close a few more options, for no other reason than risk reduction/profit taking. Bid in for next week BTG if it retests that 8SMA on the climb.

        • Hawaiifive0
          Hawaiifive0 says:

          Could be. I’ve been meaning to take data on money flow for a long time, but haven’t yet. The questions, among other might be, how often it’s meaningful. Does it take affect the following day, two days later, three, etc.and how much of an impact does it have.

Trackbacks & Pingbacks

  1. […] Hey, Look! Surprises To The Upside! […]

Comments are closed.