Thursday September 14th- Energy

SPX – ON day 16, The SPX has more time & space to climb higher. We still have gaps below that usually fill later on.

I’m sorry that this report is being released 1/2 hr before the markets open,  I ran into a few minor  problems this morning with my internet.  I had to hurry and upload the charts and write this entire report, without double checking for Typos, so please excuse any that you may find. Thank You.

USD – The USD has been weak and in a downtrend for sure. It looks ready to break out and we have been expecting an ICL.  If the USD finally gains some strength here, you have to wonder how that will affect Precious Metals, since they used to have a pretty solid INVERSE relationship historically.  I am watching 93.

WTIC –  Oil continued higher and is bullish. It is at resistance, so watch the $49.61 area , we’ll see if it can break out.  This is day 8 of possibly 30 – 50 days, so this can move a lot higher if it remains bullish.

XLE–  This looks rather convincing too. We did have a break out that failed in July, but the RSI on this break is showing good strength.

NATGAS – NATGAS also has a bullish set up ( Today is the inventory report, we’ll see if it can continue higher).  With both OIL & GAS Bullish, let’s look at OIL & GAS stocks again.

XLE – Again, the XLE has broken out in almost a vertical rise.

BTE–  Lower low, lower highs, and now a possible high low and higher high coming up.

CRC – I pointed this one out yesterday, and the follow through was minor, so it is still a valid buy with a stop under the 50sma.

OAS – Oas moved higher yesterday out of the lows.  This is one that I used to buy & hold often. Nice volume.

NOTE:

SWN –  SWN looks great, but I was stopped out in the spring when it also looked great, so what do you do?  When an entire sector and all of the energy Oil &Gas stocks move bullishly at once,  you just have to buy and USE A STOP. Maybe raise a stop as it moves higher to lock in gains, and re-enter on a pull back, etc

HCLP –  Look at the RSI, it has not been above the 50% mark about 6 months. This flat base has broken the down trend and looks to be ready to move higher now too.

WLL –

WE HAVE AN FOMC MEETING NEXT WEDNESDAY THAT USUALLY AFFECTS GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS (AND THE USD).

GOLD –  Gold has support in this $1320 area, and then stronger support in the $1300 area.

NOTE:  Gold is a Bullish Set Up and I am still holding my miners.  One thing that I do not like about this set up is simply how the Precious Metals respond to the USD when it rises, and the USD  looks like it wants to break out & run higher.  I am watching these two areas and will continue to monitor it going forward.  I will cover it in the weekend report.   CURRENTLY I SEE THE USD FLYING THIS a.m. , AND GOLD RESISTING AND TRYING TO GO GREEN.  THAT IS A GOOD SIGN.  🙂

EDIT:  At second glance,  the USD chart looks like the time is from Sept 13th/ yesterday while Gold charts are reflecting Sept 14th.  That’s odd.

GOLD –  Here we see that GOLD can continue a bit lower time & space wise.

SILVER – This is also bullish and holding near the highs.

GDX#1 –  Some of the Miners are barely pulling back, but GDX & GDXJ are doing a normal correction.  This is why I cut my leverage last Friday, we were due for this pullback.   Notice the stochastics are not oversold.

GDX #2 – If we were to get a rally in the USD, I am worried that we could possibly get a back test of this triangle break out or the 50sma.  If the USD is held back, this could bull flag.  We have an FOMC MTG WEDNESDAY.

GDX#3 –  Bottom line:  We had a bullish break out from triangle patterns.  How it plays out is the big question.  I’d like to see this up-trending channel hold up, but a drop to the 50sma is still possible.

The 3 charts above are my answer to the emails asking me ” CAN I BUY JNUG OR NUGT AGAIN YET ?”  At this point, that kind of a possible drop would hurt you in a 3x ETF.  A USD POP would hurt you in a 3x ETF.  Be safe, be careful.

GDXJ – 2 reasonable support areas are shown

GV –  I was asked to update my thoughts on GV & MBOT from a prior report.  GV had a quick mini-shake out, but they are involved in infrastructure work in the Florida area.  I mentioned that last year with hurricane Matthew in Florida, I made a good trade on this stock.   It continued to have follow through and may just keep running at this point.

MBOT –  It is still in a basing pattern.  It has POPPED at times.  I am in this one and will hold it for now.  If it CLOSES below the $1.00 area, I may decide to let it go, but so far this is inside of a base.

This was Wednesday chart in the report showing the same thing, nothing has changed.

This was also in a report, and I said that when this one pops, it really pops, but I also said that THIS IS PROBABLY THE RISKIEST TRADE THAT WE HAVE BECAUSE OF THE WAY IT MOVES HIGHER & LOWER.   It is unpredictable on a day to day basis.

  Enjoy your trading day on this Thursday.

~ALEX