Sept 13th – Bottom Fishing

After another short review, we will talk about some trade set ups and some ‘bottom fishing’.

 

 

SPX – The General Markets are still moving up out of the recent lows. No change from yesterdays report, I would raise my stops to lock in gains if the gap below eventually fills.

 

OIL remains the same, it looks to have bottomed with a daily cycle low and started a 2nd daily cycle. Today is the Oil inventory report.

 

NATGAS did a shake out at the 50sma, broke a lower trend line and recovered and looks ready to continue higher after all of this choppy consolidation. If I went long, my stop would be under the low Friday.

Now that both OIL & NATGAS seem to have their lows in place, I will, at the end of this report, entertain some ‘bottom fishing’ set ups in the Oil & Gas Sector.

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Let’s discuss a little bit more about the Miners current set up. The more information we have, the better prepared we are and the Miners remain bullishly aligned while pulling back.

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These 2 charts were in yesterdays report, and this one showed a possible drop in the form of an A-B-C, possibly reaching the rising 50sma.

This one showed a type of run away move. Either are possible, so we view them to prepare us for this drop.

 

GDX CURRENTLY – So you can see that GDX stalled at the 13 EMA and reversed higher.  This still fits both scenarios above.  An A-B-C drop with the ‘b’ bounce now, or it could continue higher.  I want to also discuss the ‘Triangle break out’ a bit more today too.

GDXJ – A channel can be seen now. This may help us to see how the juniors will react, support & resistance wise.

 

GDX –  I would LOVE to just see this Bull flag, but this would be too easy for everyone to buy, right? This is a very common formation that is basically a cup & handle. If this forms, I will buy even before it breks out higher.

 

 

 

Triangle Break Outs

 

In the past, I have seen MANY triangle break outs. They have a tendancy to run steadily higher, because they consist of shorts covering, Buyers stepping in, and those that missed it buying the dips. Let me give you one of many examples that I have…

 

ABX – in the 2016 bull run, a triangle formed on ABX. This resembles the one that we saw on GDXJ. When it started to run, the buy the dips crowd kept it from dropping very deeply.

 

GDXJ SEPT 1st –  This was our GDXJ break out and you can see the similarities.

GDXJ – Is a break out on a shorter time frame already in place? If so, this could just keep running higher too.

ABX – Let’s step back and look at the run out of the ABX triangle.  You can see why I was very excited about GDX & GDXJ forming triangles and even though Gold didn’t break out yet, I had us buying Miners for 3 weeks ahead of time.

So look at the ABoVE chart of ABX again, and you’ll see that the run has small pull backs along the way. It bounced off of the 10sma often, but it didn’t have a deep drop until well out of the lows.  That is just something else that we may want to take note of as GDX & GDXJ  (and individual Miners ) remain bullish.  Why?  Because in a Bull Market Run  this is called “Surprises to the upside”, and I covered that in a prior report.

 

Let’s look at some bullish set ups.

 

DO NOT BE OVERWHELMED BY THE NUMBER OF STOCK PICKS THAT YOU ARE GOING TO SEE. I will say that I DO NOT like to own more than 5-10 stocks at a time, and yet I do own about 13 currently.   I even sold TGB and GMO recently to lighten up.  I am the first to say that owning too many positions at once is difficult to manage.  That said, I may not be taking any of these trades, but they are valid set ups for those that feel under invested in a bullish environment.  I have very active traders and they have requested trade set ups when a low risk set up develops.  We have a very active market right now, so this is a good number of set ups that look likely to move higher.  You may just be waiting for Miners to pull back ( There are some below too) , or have enough invested,  so at this point you can just learn from the set ups and watch how they do.

 

TECH – 3D stocks that ran very strongly in April and May have consolidated those gains and look ready to possibly run higher again.

SSYS– Here we see a break out with price above support on the 200 & now 50sma. The down trend is broken, and this is Bullish.

 

VJET –  The same is happening here.

When SSYS and VJET start moving, I also watch DDD and XONE ( 3-D Printer stocks).

 

Biotech

MNKD –  I do like the way MNKD is ‘progressing’. Notice how it gained the 50sma, and then went sideways, ran up & gained the 200sma, then went sideways again.  It looks like it wants to move higher again. My stop would be under the 200sma.

MBOT – I pointed this out as a long base,  high risk because it is ‘bottom fishing’, but low risk if you use a stop & minimize downside.  Recently it has had some nice volume pops and looks like it wants to run higher.  I do own this one.

MBOT – You may remember this chart that I posted on Sept 7th a bit better-  it is the pipe dream chart 🙂

 

GV –  I pointed this out on Sept 8th as it was breaking out (Infrastructure in Florida).  Then earnings came out and it dropped right back to the 50sma…

GV –  After holding on that 50sma, it was up 12% on Tuesday, it looks set to run higher again. That was a strong reversal off of the 50sma, and it also regained the 200sma.

 

 

OGRMF -MARIJUANA STOCK – buy as it breaks above the 200sma or buy it ahead of time and use a fairly tight stop. That ‘small’ run in July is actually a ‘big’ run from $1.60 to $2.10.  It looks ready to run again.

 

MINERS – Buying near the lows is still paying off

 

CDE – CDE actually reversed and held the 200sma and a trend line, returning to recent highs. It is not really selling off here and may not drop below the 200sma again.

DRD – DRD reversed on Tuesday too, closing up near recent highs too. Miners are giving us a few days of selling and then a surprise to the upside so far.  I still own this one too.

EXK – EXK has been dropping, but notice that it really only went sideways so far. It is encouraging to see that even the Miners that got crushed are not dropping sharply by recent selling.

GSS – GSS lost the 200sma and then closed back on it by the end of the day.  I recommended this one a while back when it back tested the 50sma. It looks to be forming a cup.

AUY – You can see how these miners are bullishly working their way higher over time. We are seeing Higher lows and higher highs now, as they move out of the lows.

So many Miners are acting correctly at this point.

 

ENERGY BOTTOM FISHING – Is it time yet?

 

CRC – This is a bullish set up, since CRC broke the 50sma and has crawled along the top of it. Now that OIL & NATGAS look to have put in their lows, this could be an easy buy with a stop under the 50sma  ( Note: The 34sma  is shown, but the 50 is in the same place). This stock was $23 in January.

SWN – A $13 stock last December, SWN has a bullish MACD divergence as it breaks out above the 50sma. This chart was captured midday, it closed with over 20 million in volume.

SWN– This is a double bottom low, and the last time it was down here, it did triple from $5 to $15.

WLL – This actually closed up over 8% and is breaking higher out from what looks like a high volume capitulation type shake out. It would be bought here with a stop under recent lows.

SM – We have seen a few false break outs in Energy, but again, OIL & NATGAS do look to have bottomed and we have divergence in the MACD here.

The 4 Energy stocks above are not the only ones that look set up for Bottom Fishing, but with the oil inventory report due out today, I just thought I would show a few and you may find some on your watch list too. See how Oil reacts and see how these stocks react as the day goes by. If you buy one, use stops.

 

 

LIXXF – This is a Lithium stock that I bought at the open yesterday, and captured this chart midday.  I noticed that LACDF & NMKEF were running strong and this one was ready to break out. It took off higher, but closed right about where I bought it. I still like this set up and will continue to hold it

 

LIXXF WEEKLY– this is a long bullish consolidation and when it breaks it should run well. It looks like it is trying to break out right now.

 

Enjoy your Wednesday of trading!

 

 

~ALEX

 

From yesterdays report:

Interestingly:

1.  Some have told me that they want to start buying the dip, and in fact have actually done so, because they feel that the Bull will surprise to the upside.  That is fine. I am here to show you how I look at things, and how I trade these time periods.

2. Others have told me that they want to sell everything, lock in gains, and see how the selling plays out, since it could take a few more days until selling is complete.  That is fine, I am here to show you how I look at things, and how I trade these time periods. 🙂    It is , of course,  up to you how you want to trade your positions, I am just showing how I have traded these time periods in the past.