Aug 18th – Friday Again

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 Let’s talk about 3 things here today…

 

1.   QQQ –  I thought that QQQ was a bull trap for several reasons, like Cycle timing, The MACD,  the Open Gap was pretty obvious, and other internal factors were keeping me cautious, but the Bulls were still buying each reversal.Was this just another Bull Trap?

 

QQQ – The NASDAQ dropped as expected, actually losing 123 points.  The QQQ slammed into the 50sma and it could bounce from here, but …

Patience in this area is important. I doubt that we will get a swing low on Friday, with a candle as big as yesterdays in place.

 

2.  WTIC  –  We are in the right timing for a dcl, and it bounced on the 50sma as mentioned, but please wait for a swing low, this sector has been tricky at times, and the XLE is ugly.  This could easily be a fake reversal too.

 

3.  GOLD 2 HOUR CHART –  The Stochastics has room to drop ( as a 2 hr chart, it can be oversold in as little as a day later).  This kind of looks like a cup & handle, but I’ll have to see what this looks like in the morning.   I am writing this at 10 p.m.  eastern.  Cup & Handle would be bullish for Friday.

 

GOLD 2 HR UPDATE –  It did act like a cup & handle & popped, but has pulled back a bit too.  We’ll see if Friday has any follow through higher from here. The break out could be back tested too.

 

GDX –  CAN GDX pop above this wedge and eliminate it?  I believe so. If the DCL was still ahead, I’d expect a rather mild drop into that dcl, but this is less likely to me and I will explain why in a minute.

GDX – GDX found support on the 50sma and reversed higher post Fed Minutes. It looks fine to me, so let’s dig in a bit and see what we can see…

 

THIS IS WHY I DO NOT EXPECT THE GDX DROP AT THIS POINT

 

ABX –  ABX looks bullish and looks like it is preparing to break out higher. This would be bullish for GDX.

 

GG –  GG resembles an inverse H&S, above a back tested trend line, pushing against the 50sma.  It is not overbought, and a break higher would be bullish for GDX.

 

NEM –  NEM has a 5 month consolidation that broke out & back tested. The back test resembles a handle  and the 50sma crossed above the 200sma.  It is not oversold yet, but it is close enough if Gold moves higher, this will likely break out.

SO the way that I see things here, Miners still look to be lined up bullishly, but they are at resistance in some areas, so Friday will help us to see if they can break higher at this time or not.   It does look good as of Thursday.

Friday is the last day of trading for the week. I’d love to see Miners move higher from here, the charts remain Bullish to me. Enjoy Fridays trading and have a great weekend!

 

~ALEX

 

91 replies
  4. DrGold
    DrGold says:

    Gold at 6 month highs. NAK joining the party. Didn’t make a ton of money the past few months but learned a bunch from several of you. Thanks CF and the rest of you other freaks.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hey Dr.Gold

      Miners in a triangle = Very tough to make & hold on to money, because the break out never comes and what should be the ‘ follow through run’ sells off.

      Miners breaking from a triangle soon? You will make good profits going forward if this plays out that way.
      Some of these Miners look a bit ‘pent up’ & could run very nicely 🙂

    • Chris
      Chris says:

      That’s down 50% now just since May and has given up four years of gains in just 3 months!! Maybe a salutary warning for how just fast things can change!

  10. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    Boy, I’m glad I chickened out and sold 1/3rd of my NUGT in the AH yesterday! LOL https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5cc31c553b1cec5734b2e3be3b2b6bcfc32a653ca83593cd70da77025e808d31.gif

    Actually, I don’t second-guess myself on trading decisions like that. The reason I sold some NUGT was because I felt like I was being overly aggressive and wanted to scale back a bit until the miners prove themselves some more. As I said when I posted, I’m willing to miss out on some potential gains in exchange for limiting my losses if I am wrong.

    Hopefully the miners really break out today!

    Good trading to all!

  11. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Just a sidenote: 2 charts – A measured move in Gold may be just about complete. This means a short term rest, consolidation, or a dip at resistance.
    It also could extend further if conditions remain bullish

    Chart #1 shows 2 measured move target possibilities
    Chart #2 shows a match to the higher projection using a channel

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bc907a1bf5106ab31be4ef68f45e8703b0258469ad75fef4ec7a4a35421cc9b5.jpg
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1d70ae84b2cf798e08aad3bcabcb7be0106e8edbf913217bb2e34545e19017f6.jpg

    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      Alex, I watch gold on the site you suggested PMBull.com….but all morning Fox business has had it higher…it hit 1305.70. right now they have 1302.50 and PMB has 1297.22. They used to be closer but for the last week have been quite different. Why?

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Cal’s right, it spot vs futures price. They are usually within $2 of each other but not always. TV will always show you the Futures, they should have the month in ( ). For example CNBC is showing Dec Futures.

          • nancytheartist
            nancytheartist says:

            Thanks for the answer Cason. Also saw your comments about BTG and HMY. Hope BTG rewards me again like it did last year and you too! Hope you are enjoying Hawaii even though I realize you had to leave it for a bit. I do still catch your comments when I check back sometimes.

    • Rob
      Rob says:

      Alex, Nice catch at the 1305 price level. Price touched that number and is retreating. Will be on the lookout for the same at 1313.

      • Steve Tytler
        Steve Tytler says:

        Alex, I agree the junior miners are a better bet, but with the rebalancing of GDXJ/JNUG a lot of the small juniors got kicked out and NUGT has lately been outperforming JNUG, that’s why I’m in NUGT this time around rather than JNUG. Also, NUGT tends to be a little less volatile while still offering a lot of leverage in miners. So I’m playing it “safer” in NUGT. LOL!

  13. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    Good to see the longer term charts getting in line, the GDX popped a PSAR buy signal this week, the first since March.

  15. nancytheartist
    nancytheartist says:

    Don’t know if anyone here has CLF..but here is what is happening with it: ” it is changing its name to Cleveland-Cliffs, a name it previously held for many decades; its NYSE stock ticker symbol will remain the same.”

    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      I picked BTG over HMY the other day. For now , a disappointment but I don’t think it will be for long.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Same! BTG was one of my best last year for mining, HMY was nothing but disappointment after the summer top, just never really got going again. This could change here soon, though.

    • marinho
      marinho says:

      it is an old saying that when the SA lead we are in the early stages of a new leg higher, because they have so much baggage with them that seems impossible for them to rally.

  17. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    Sold my NUGT. At the docs office with the wife and the wifi here sucks. Had to switch to LTE and managed to get out at .27 vs the .60ish it hit.. Not bad – small amount of shares

  18. Cal Staggers
    Cal Staggers says:

    Hi Alex,
    Since gold trades around the world during our after-hours, I tend to think that it’s best to set Gold’s intraday charts to all hours instead of only U.S. open market hours.
    How do you set your charts? (Since it makes a difference on RSI & MACD)
    Thanks!

  23. Steven
    Steven says:

    Gold pummeling anyone who bought the breakout this morning? I’m concerned especially about holding over the weekend now……

      • BayTrader
        BayTrader says:

        Im usually one to buy at the top and sell the bottom. Got lucky today with NUGT and flipped to DUST for the day trade. Not sure what this means. I expected a whole lot more follow thru on both GDX/J

          • BayTrader
            BayTrader says:

            Welp. Scraped together some spare change on DUST before fees.. pretty disappointed with the Performance after the new high with gold tho. felt like a FOMC reaction. Huge spikes all over and then bye bye crash… as soon as I feel like I’m getting the hang of the cycle thing, it spins me around again..

            Didn’t let go of my other long miner positions but feels like this next DCL might wipe all gains from the previous runs on AUY, HMY, and IAG and any progress made on GG.

  24. Cal Staggers
    Cal Staggers says:

    I added to my 3x long gold (UGLD) on this a.m.’s “breakout” – then intraday charts turned so bad, I exited all my UGLD.
    Waiting on the close of the day to decide on my GDX/J positions. I’m dying by a thousand cuts on miners, as I keep buying the breaches up and out of the triangle, that then go nowhere.

    Sure seems like a failure at this moment, but it being Options Expiration day muddies the waters. Is yesterday’s tidbit I passed along true? …that the market makers trying to pin GDX to 23 since that strike price has 3x the options as any other?

  25. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    FWIW … Miners are now a “buy” on my 15 chart and I bot back the NUGT I sold and even added a little more.

  26. Dom
    Dom says:

    I mentioned the other day that maybe AMZN is not the killer of retail but that the consumer is slowing down. Another one down big today is FL. I don’t know about you but I’m not shopping for Air Jordans on AMZN, you feel me. AMZN is the front for the weak consumer

  27. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    JNUG is outperforming my NUGT today, hoping both finish with some buying into the close. Both are still a “buy” on my 15 min chart, but JNUG looks stronger than NUGT.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        That’s why I entered ind miners slowly. Ready to add my dry powder on any pullback but at least have some positions on.

  30. Nord
    Nord says:

    Stopped out in oil in my 47.3 entry short. Something made it go ballistic (probably that it cant ever show a bearish weekly close :)).

  33. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    Alex, looking at a very long term monthly chart on the $XAU, is that not an inverse head and shoulders pattern, implying a 180 level on the XAU?

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