WEEKEND WRAP UP JULY 23

SPX – This could be a swing high, but we also saw this type pf action 5 days ago, didn’t we. Also we see that Friday ended as a reversal higher, so a confirmed swing high would need to drop below  2460, at this point.

SXP WEEKLY – The SPX Longer term chart is at an area that has been toppy in the past.  It can just keep climbing, or drop into an overdue ICL, so trailing stops should remain in place.

WTIC – Oil popped right over the 50sma  on Wednesday and this was a bullish set up. The RSI was almost at 60% and this looked very good.

WTIC – Oil remained above the 50sma on Thursday, but on Friday Oil slammed down back below the 50sma & 10sma.  🙁   The RSI is about to cross the 50% mark, and a trendline drawn here is the last chance to save Oil. This no longer looks very bullish, but please note that we DID have a slam down on the 2nd trading day of July and the trend line was formed shortly after. Watch that trend line.

The XLE started to break out with strong volume Wednesday too, so the sector was perking up on Wednesday…

XLE WEEKLY –  Then we had Fridays slam down,  which makes the weekly chart look weak and like a false break out.  Suddenly Friday changed the energy sectors set ups.

NATGAS – NATGAS looks weak here, rejected at the 50 & 10 sma. It is going to need to break above the 50sma to turn bullish again.

GOLD WKLY – Golds weekly chart need a little follow through and then we’d have a very bullish chart.

Next week is the FOMC meeting, and this could break out & run, telling us that it is leaving behind that ICL.  It also could fail to break out, so we are at a critical juncture.

GOLD WEEKLY – We also now have a weekly swing low.

GDX WKLY – GDX has not broken below Mays lows. I see quite a few Miner acting this way too.  I keep saying that triangkes mess up cycle counts, and people keep asking me what is the cycle count  🙂   P.S. – We have a triangle.

LET’S LOOK AT A COUPLE OF WEEKLY MINERS CHARTS –

AG – For 9 months the $7 area has basically held as the lows.

KGC – ON THE KGC WEEKLY CHART, Price moved above the 10 ma, and bounced bullishly off of the 30ma.

RGLD – RGLD has a round bottom ( CUP ) formation and is almost back at the 2016 highs.

I wrote a report discussing the bullish changes slowly taking place in Miners, with many bottoming in May. This set up looks good going into the FOMC this week. I’m taking it step by step from there.

And the commodity trades remain well above their lows.

Let’s look at a few charts of Metals and Medical Marijuana

TGB – Breaking out higher and still riding the 10 & 30 weekly ma.  Bullish.

WRN JULY 14th Wkly—  At $1.04 it was pointed out here as a buy, but especially if it broke out higher.

WRN July 19th – $1.09 it as slowly but surely moving higher.

WRN WEEKLY CHART – up 13% last week and 30 % in 5 weeks.   ( I wrote 4 on the chart, but it was 5). The 30 ma can act as resistance.

IPI WEEKLY – I still think that IPI has higher price ahead.

CNBX WKLY – The 30 weekly MA is resistance.  If price gets above it , it can usually run, but it may act as resistance short term.

ACBFF WEEKLY –  This MJ stock seems to be breaking higher from a long consolidation.  It closed above the 10 & 30 weekly MA.

 The General Markets continue higher, but they are also riding along the top of a trend line, so stay invested if you are long, but be aware and use a trailing stop  if you can’t be in front of a screen all day.

 OIL looked pretty bullish after the Wed inventory report, and the XLE also finally broke back above that 50sma on Wednesday.  Then Friday saw Oil crash down & the XLE broke lower too.   I’m watching that trend line for Oil.  NATGAS also took a turn for the worse. I’ve been waiting patiently to get into some of the energy trades, and now it seems that I will have to wait for further confirmation 1 way or the other.

 Gold, Silver,  & Miners –  You can see that the way that things are currently setting up, this could be an important week for Precious Metals.  We have the bullish looking set ups that I have been pointing out in the reports over the last couple of weeks and above, and our FOMC meeting Wednesday as a possible bullish or bearish catalyst that may help us to see if this is going to resolve Bullishly or Bearishly.    If an ICL is in place, we should rally for weeks.  We’ll have to see what happens going into the FOMC meeting and afterward.

~ALEX

 I have received a couple of emails ( and you may have also read this in the comments in the comments section too)  where people are saying to me,  ” The slow move in the Miners means that we do not have an ICL, right? I expect to see Miners just rocket out of the lows , and since we do not have that, that means that this will roll over.”   And then I am being asked, “So should I go short?”   My answer is “NO”.   The fact that Miners not rocketing out of the lows is not a guarantee that this is not an ICL.

GDX 2012 – GDX DID NOT ROCKET OUT OF THE LOWs for a couple of weeks really.

GOLD DEC-JAN  2016 –   Sideways in a triangle, Golds price stayed at the lows for weeks.  Triangles mess up cycles expectations in my opinion.

GOLD DAILY  DEC – JAN 2016 – This daily action would have made mny think that this could not possibly be an ICL.   What would you have thought on day 20 and still at the lows??

10 days at the bottom –  would you say that this looked like an ICL, when 5 days at the lows is a whole trading week, and 10 days is 2 whole trading weeks?

GDX NOW – Compare this move off of the bottom with the one above.