Wednesday July 19

/157 Comments/in /by

 

SPX – Going long the break out is still working with a loose trailing stop, after this long sideways consolidation. The SPX held the 50sma in the recent drop.

 

NASDAQ – Twice this year we have seen the NASDAQ go sideways and sell off for weeks giving buyers an easy opportunity to enter.  After another 2 month sideways consolidation and sell off, a buy was issued here as it recovered the 50sma.  Notice that on occasion, a Sharp 1 day drop occured out of nowhere ( We had them in March, May, & 2 in June). A back test to a trend line.  Well…

 

NASDAQ–  The NASDAQ Bigger Picture really is due for a deeper pullback into an ICL, and has returned to the top trendline area, but never really dropped into what is a noticeable ICL.  Will it? It may, but it doesn’t have to…

1. It could break out from here & run at an even steeper pace (Parabolic).

2. Or continue sideways, higher, sideways,  higher like it did in Feb, March, & April, just riding that 50sma.

3. This sideways action could continue in a topping manner & drop into that ICL like the summer of 2016 & Nov of 2016, the last 2 really noticeable ICLs on this chart.  I’m wondering if a pause would allow the Commodities, Gold, Miners , etc to run while the general markets continue to rest.  Time will tell,  but indications of a top that I use are neutral right now after the recent sell off.

VIX – If the vix does another spike, we could get a market pull back, but so far the vix has been giving milder spikes contained in a wedge. A break of this wedge could give that ICL.

USD – The USD continues to be attacked by bears, breaking it down month after month.

 

WTIC –  Oil is attempting to break out above the 50sma, and it actually still looks good.  The Oil inventory report on Wednesday may push this right through it.

XLE –  The XLE still isn’t buying it, but look at the MACD divergence. I’ll be watching to see if the XLE can break through after a brief crawl or pause.

 

NATGAS – NATGAS is still moving higher after the ‘High volume, capitulation type, slam down low’.  Now on day 9 , This chart actually looks more bullish after attempting this break out on Tuesday.

 

GOLD – Gold on Day 6 is approaching the 50sma too. At this point it still looks bullish and now challenges that 50sma at $1247.88.

GDX–  GDX has a small rising bearish wedge forming as it nears the 50sma.  It may just pull back to the 10sma,  or if Gold surges right through its 50sma,  GDX may follow.  Everything else looks Bullish though.

 

ABX – And the ABX chart still looks like it wants to climb higher  ( ICL?).

GG –  GG actually had a nice burst of volume as it pushed on the 50sma yesterday, and that can be bullish,  so Wednesday may give us more to the story.  IF GG breaks out, it is bullish and it really could run well  ( The ICL would likely be in place).   Also…

 

GORO –  As I have been occasionally mentioning,  GORO ( Slowly but surely) has held the 50sma break out and is actually now up over 40% since the May lows.  I actually bought this at the May lows, but cut it loose near the 50sma with the sector uncertainty.  This is 3 month highs for GORO and it looks like it is going sideways building energy for a run higher – I LIKE IT.

 

BTG –  And BTG is also up almost 40% since May.   This really seems to indicate that Miners have bottomed.   Remember when Gold sold off all through JUNE, and I was reporting that a few miners were ignoring it, even rising higher?  Look at BTG during June, and then scroll back up and look at GOLD during June.   THIS IS WHY I HAVE SAID THAT IT MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO OWN SOME MINERS.  They do now seem to have bottomed. This could be bought with a stop under the 50sma , since it held on the last dip.

MUX –  So I look at a stock like MUX,  still trading at the recent lows. Does it have bullish signs?  Yes.  MUX broke above the blue trendline and is now pushing on the 50sma.  One could BUY it here and use a stop?  Wait to Buy a break of the 50sma, so you know that the sideways move is ending? You can decide, but I think that MUX may have bottomed LAST WEEK when I published my report on how the Miners are turning bullish.

 

The more I see Commodity stocks perking up, along with the recent low in Oil, Natgas, and Precious Metals,  I wonder,  “Will they run together with the markets?  Or will the markets stall and move sideways or pull back as these ‘things’ run higher?”  Commodities  do look bullish and I like the set ups on many commodity stocks, as mentioned here in recent reports over the past couple of weeks. For now, the General markets continue higher out of the recent multi week sell off, so just ride them if you are long. Enjoy your mid week trading,

 

 

~ALEX

.

 

CNBX –  We saw a 6% drop yesterday, and I was asked what do I think is happening.   Since it was up over 30% on Monday,  this drop on Tuesday ( after a surge higher Tuesday morning) looks absolutely normal, even closing above the 200sma.  I’d like to see it hold above the 200sma, but it could drop and move along the 50sma and still be a normal long consolidation after Februarys enormous run higher. This sector is still acting bullishly.

157 replies
  1. Rm
    Rm says:

    The gdx to me is moving like a turtle and not how I would expect with gold acting better. Makes me very cautious. Any specific thoughts HMY?ty

  2. RonB
    RonB says:

    Good morning Alex. Philosophical question as miners come out of a possible ICL. When picking a horse to ride here, how much weight should we put on the amount of overhead that still exists, and also how big the short interest is? Also if a stock that is listed in Canada only has the potential to get a big board listing will that play much of a factor going forward?

    Or do these things not mater so much when it comes to powerhouse stocks like BTG and MUX?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I take all of those factors into consideration for longer term buy & hold, and a future listing on the big boards does help ( it attracts more investors). I look at it as though you have an item for sale in a small chain store, but then Walmart picks up that item, sales often increase with that kind of exposure. ( I’m not calling Canada the small chain store, I am referring to the pink sheet listing that some Canadian Miners have).

      For a short term trade, I will often see a stock set up to break out & it just does. Short interest can give it more pop as the shorts begin to cover, but I dont look at short interest as much s others do. I look for chart patters that are set to break higher.

      And then there is always the dreaded ‘public offering’. Often Unforeseen and uncontrollable , so I recommend a basket of miners. I do have a theory for those that has proven true however, but that is for another time.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Take a look a MYSZ of a 6 month chart. I sold that a while ago, but I love that longer term chart and kind of like the story of the APP too.

  7. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Some of our trades from a month or even 2 months ago are still set up properly and following through.

    For example TWTR, SPWR, CSIQ, TTWO ( JBL is ok, but not nearly as good performance wise yet), AMD, UEC, etc, etc, and so with that group, I also mentioned FSLR, JKS, and those are also doing well. That leads me to JASO – this could be the next solar runner, and SUNW, WNDW, SOL, etc . Are these next? RGSE still struggling along under the 50sma, but that still looks promising too.

    HQCL – Set up nicely too for the solar sector.

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      JASO, nice pop today. Its at the previous resistance from mid June. I could see a pull back gap fill, maybe by then the 20sma will catch up. If it breaks thru then it could really run. I’ll have to put it on my watch list. Have you traded it before?

  10. RonB
    RonB says:

    check those two candles on TPLM – I can’t find the meaning in the Japanese Candlestick book

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      MCOA did the same thing 4 days ago, and has moved a lot higher since. I’m NOT saying that will happen to TPLM, just though you might want to look at it on a 3 month chart.

    • deshy
      deshy says:

      Me too! Missed the buy this am though to add. Although I did hear some one once say…there’ll always be another trade 🙂 Thanks Alex for the great work. Now if only you could fix dem myners…

    • Maria
      Maria says:

      yeah.. that was one of my bonehead overtrading moves…

      i like YUMA over the big bad bully…. lol

  13. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    IPI, UEC, TGB are my slow and steady climbers.

    I believe that WRN may start doing the same soon, but I do not own it.

    And I made a good trade on TANH, but that one is now moving on with out me 🙁

        • RonB
          RonB says:

          UUUU has a huge short interest.
          I don’t know how important this is but I have been watching AAV and AAV.TO – same company.
          AAV on the NYSE had a SI of 24.82 and since June 21 it has popped 20%
          AAV.TO on the TSX only had a SI of 6.17 and it moved 12.5% in the same time frame

  26. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    Miners are “putting a harsh on my mellow” today. I’m not used to seeing red candles, TQQQ is always green. LOL

    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      Yes…I was overjoyed and almost made it into the green….but back down a bit now. There is hope.

  28. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Just FYI……New Hampshire Governor signed bill yesterday to decriminalize possession of small amounts of marijuana….

    “HB 640 will take effect in 60 days, making New Hampshire the 22nd state in the nation — and the last of the New England states — to eliminate the possibility of jail time for simple marijuana possession”

  33. RonB
    RonB says:

    TRX short interest shot up to 50 days to cover. They reported yesterday and the worst of the bad is they have $1.6 million to pay $4 million worth of bills. Over $3 Mill of the payables are over 3 months. That was to the end of May and I can’t see any announcements where they have raised any more money so it could be worse by now

    I was going to take the trade and hope for a crazy short covering binge, but they are really looking to be in desperate shape

  34. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I went away at lunch time, check out HQCL, CSIQ, JKS, and I think that SUNW was rejected at the 50sma, but it will get through it soon, if volume keeps swelling on the up days.

  35. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    ALSO ENERGY FINALLY LOOKS REALLY GOOD- For example, see

    SPN – Very nice , QEP, SWN, CPG, GURE, PDS,
    GTE breaking out, SN set up to do so, and there are many more.

    XCO – up 50%

  36. rick
    rick says:

    do you find the action of CNBX more bullish or bearish. I am really torn about this stock looks good, but the downside of 1.00ish is pretty far from this 1.30 level

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Rick

      That is the problem with these when they move so fast. I do see it as bullish action overall, but it could drop back to $1.00 and back test that 50sma. I was hoping to see it stay above ( or at least close above) the 200sma, but it is flickering around .

      There is another way to look at it, and to me it is quite bullish…Let me draw you a chart and be right back

    • Crystal
      Crystal says:

      All I can say is that the “highs” don’t last very long. Don’t hold your breath for too long

  37. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I REALLY like the charts set ups that are forming & following through. It gives the idea of less ‘chop / pop / & drop, and more gradual trending . Just what we need to buy & hold for a bit.

    Commodities and solar are doing this already. See 3 month charts of

    X, CLF, VALE, AKS, CENX, HBM, etc etc .

    Now above the 50sma and even back testing has been done, These have been buy & hold for a few weeks at least.

  39. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    One of the most amazing (And alarming) things that I have witnessed in trading has been DRYS.

    It just keeps reverse splitting & losing 90% of its value, reverse split – loses 90% , etc etc

    just crazy- they should delist

  41. RonB
    RonB says:

    We are going to be running head first into earnings season for these commodity stocks starting towards the end of next week.

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