Thursday July 13

The climb is hardly ever straight up.

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SPX – We were anticipating a trend line break and a close above the 10 sma to help confirm a dcl. We got it. The last time that this happened, the gap filled one month later.

NASDAQ–  I pointed out that the SMH had both a trend line break & a close above the 10sma,  so the NASDAQ  would likely follow, signaling a DCL in place.  ‘Long’ positions  were encouraged as early as Monday with that close above the 50sma, but there was a need to keep a close eye on them.   This looks bullish with the follow through.

WTIC – Oil was stalled at the 50sma, but I am thinking that this stall will be temporary.  It remains above the 10sma & the oil Inventory showed a drop and that ought to be bullish.

This chart from yesterdays report ( and one posted last week) indicates that the current bounce out of the lows are stronger than prior bounces out of the lows.

NATGAS -Inventories come out on Thursdays, and the NATGAS chart seems to have put in a slam down high volume low last week.  We do have solid resistance above with a 50sma & 200sma cross under,  so this needs monitoring.

GOLD – I want to go back and just revisit the thinking that I had last week.

GOLD –  I entertained the possibility of a dcl in June and a drop forming a bear flag on day 10.  This would lead to more downside.

GOLD – We started that drop on possible day 11.  Were we about to drop into a solid freefall ICL into day 20+ for the daily cycle ?

GOLD DROPPED FOR 1 MORE DAY, AND THE WE SAW A REVERSAL ON MONDAY.   I THEN POSTED A REPORT SHOWING HOW MANY MINERS WERE NO LONGER FOLLOWED GOLDS SELL OFF THROUGHOUT JUNE.  THAT RAISED A FEW QUESTIONS…WAS THAT SIGNALING A BOTTOM COMING IN GOLD & SILVER? THE C.O.T. LEVELS WERE ALSO DISCUSSED.  COULD WE BE SEEING AN ICL AFTER AN EXTENDED SELL OFF ON DAY 41, INSTEAD OF DAY 11 OF A NEW DAILY CYCLE?  AND THAT BRINGS US TO TODAY.

GOLD CLOSING OVER $1225.81 would be a nice start.

$GOLD – I Bought Miners on Monday and would watch and see how this plays out coming out of this reversal low,  but I would remain cautiously optimistic.  We are nearing ‘Do Or Die’ time for Gold.   Gold was rejected at the 10sma Wednesday day 3 –  ( OR –  DAY 14?) .

GOLD – This rejection would have been where I might sell JNUG if I went leveraged and just watch it play out.  Gold is up in pre-market,  so with yesterdays 10sma rejection, one could sell JNUG pre-market too, and watch if they were uncertain too. The question is, was that an ICL on Monday or Day 14 Wednesday of a continuing daily cycle?  I am still holding my Miners for now.

GOLD – The 10sma is important, so I am watching that this week.

GOLD –   Gold was rejected on day 3 in May at the lows,  tagging it and selling off into the close.  The 10sma was then broken on day 4.  Right now we are possibly on  day 3 too,  that is why I held on to my miners,  PLUS they didn’t sell off in June with Gold & Silver, so I feel I have a little time.

GDX – Gapped over the 10sma on Wednesday and then filled that gap.

GPL –  For example,  I used this chart of GPL to show that Miners did not sell off with Gold and Silver in June.

NG CURRENTLY –  This could drop or Pop and still be inside of this up-trending channel.

AG – Take a look at day 3 in May. It broke out above the 10sma after day 3. SO AG may still be just fine so far, in my humble opinion.

The Commodity stocks turned lower too, but still look fine.

CLD – This turned lower too, but remains bullishly set up moving out of a small base /  bottom.

CLF –  Also turned lower & sold off into  the end of the  day.  It also still looks fine,  even if it drops further.

So what does this mean?  These look like lows in the commodity stocks, with multi week bases in most of them. This gives me some ideas going forward that I will be watching for, and I will discuss this further in the bigger picture weekend report. For now, the trading has been good, and I’ll be watching NATGAS inventory today and see if the Precious Metals do anything important too. Enjoy your Thursday of Trading,  and thanks for being here at Chartfreak!

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~ALEX

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NASDAQ BLOW OFF TOP POSSIBILITY?  I have mentioned this quit a few times now over the months.

That said, I have been watching a few Tech charts for Months too.  Entertaining the idea of a possible NASDAQ blow off top,  I wanted to find something that may really excel, and Semiconductor stocks seem to be doing that.  Some are already well along, others look ready to go soon.

In prior reports I have discussed  CY, AMD, TSEM, MU to mention a few. There are other Tech stocks that I watch too and  I have done a few ‘quick trades’ in a couple of them, TWTR & GRPN  being 2 of them.  I wanted to share 2 of them with you now ( I have mentioned a couple here already).

GRPN &  PXLW

GRPN –  This could be bought with a stop under the 10sma.  In my personal day trading, I  did a small trade on GRPN when it broke out from a wedge near $3.00.  I then I watched it continue higher after selling a POP at $3.40 area.   It has moved up quickly in a Month and the set up is acting correctly at this point.   My conclusion now is that after months of selling, GRPN seems to be recovering.  This used to be a $12 stock.

PXLW – This too is recovering after being sold off to  $1.22 in 2016.  It is in a bullish uptrend for longer term investors  ( or traders) That wish to look into the fundamentals. ( Chris?).

TSEM –  This semi has been on fire and the set up is bullish again.  Long term investors may like this set up too.