JULY 16 WEEKEND REPORT

SPX – When we gapped up over that trend line  ( Again, see April)  and held above the 50sma, it was obvious that the bull market remains in tact.  The SPX also experienced follow through last week.  I’m not saying that we will drop soon, but that last Gap in April was filled at the next dcl as a back test of the break out.  If we get more sideways movement than upward ,  that may be what is happening.

SPX WEEKLY –  Bullish, though extremely overbought.

The NASDAQ July 7 th –  We needed to see the NASDAQ  recover

1. The 50sma

2. The Trend line , and

3. The 10sma, if it did, that would be a buy on Monday-  and it was.

NASDAQ WKLY – And follow through last week made a bullish looking weekly chart, as the NASDAQ is back at the highs.  As a side note, I just wanted to point out that prior drops below the 10ma on a wkly that then recovered,  did drop 1 more time as seen here.  That may or may not happen, just a side note for future reference.

USD WKLY- The USD is overdue for a low and an ICL, but it just keeps breaking down. A break from this wedge would be short term bullish.  That conflicts with Golds expectations for now.  The USD & GILD are no longer tightly held in an inverse relationship, but it is common for Gold to drop when the USD strengthens. Right now, however, Gold looks bullish, as you will see.

OIL WEEKLY  – I have been saying that OILs low 3 weeks ago  looked real.  It has proven to at least be a dcl, but many energy stocks are still not quite following along, so the ICL could still be ahead. The ones that I have been tracking as possible leaders do remain healthy however  ( ERF, RES, AREX, etc).

XLE WEEKLY –  please read the chart

NATGAS DAILY –  Natgas is 50/50 to me right now. We had a slam down , high volume low and that could be bought with a stop right under it.  We also see divergence in the MACD, and it closed back above the 10sma, so these are bullish signs of improvement.   A break above the 50sma would be very helpful.

NATGAS DAILY  – The WEEKLY chart is nearing a conclusion. We did have a stronger volume week higher so far and it is oversold.

GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

After doing a little additional research this weekend, I am really starting to see some very bullish looking developments in this sector. There is nothing wrong with being patient or cautious, but as the signs continue to add up, I am thinking that holding at least a couple of Miners would be prudent.  I mentioned a few in my report entitled , “What Am I Seeing Here..”  earlier in the week.  Let’s take a look at what has happened last week, and since last weekends report.

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C.O.T. – This is getting quite Bullish, and now it is quite a bit lower than the ICL of Dec 2016 . AN ICL in Gold could be in place with this recent low & COT reading.

As a reminder,  Last week I pointed out that the Smart Money short positions had been extremely low at the ICL of Dec 2015.   So I do not use current COT readings as a solid sign of an ICL, but it is definitely encouraging and Bullish ( Especially when it is below last Dec 2016 ICL levels).  Again, we may have an ICL in place, and I did a report last week pointing out that many Miners are already coming out of lows nicely.

GOLD WEEKLY  – Large weekly reversals can lead to higher price ( DCLs or ICLs), and the last few saw 4 or 5 weeks higher, but that was during the uptrend.  Is Gold starting the next uptrend after putting in an ICL? We need more time to know for sure, but many things look good after last week.  This trend line being broken is the next goal, and then recovering the wkly 10ma.

GOLD – On this July 12 chart, I was pointing out that even though it got rejected at the 10sma on day 3,  we had seen that in the past, and then we got a burst higher over the 10sma. We also made new lows , so we have a failed daily cycle,  something that I look for when looking for an ICL.

GOLD DAILY – We got a nice solid burst higher above that 10sma on Friday. This breaks the overhead trend line and closing over the 10sma is bullish (  Dcl or ICL  in place).   If you took a position when I did on Friday or Monday in Miners ( GDX, GDXJ, Individual basket, etc)  this is what you wanted to see and now you can raise stops to at least break even and avoid any losses if this did roll over into another drop.   This is taking it 1 step at a time after each successful move forward, and friday added a high volume burst higher. Shorts may be starting to cover.

SILVER WEEKLY-  Silver is a tad behind Gold, but it recovered from that flash crash and closed near last weeks highs.

GDX WEEKLY #1-  This is a Big picture of a triangular consolidation. You can see that THE LOWS were near $12 in early 2016. At this point, this is a normal consolidation so far after a mountain of gains in 2016. If shorts start to cover, this could rally.    ALSO PLEASE NOTICE THAT IF AN ICL WERE IN PLACE, NO ONE HAS ‘MISSED THE MOVE” in MINERS.  The next run will be very profitable.

GDX WEEKLY  #2 –  This could be a break out and back test low.

ALSO PLEASE NOTICE THAT IF AN ICL WERE IN PLACE, NO ONE HAS ‘MISSED THE MOVE” in MINERS.  The next run will be very profitable. 🙂

GDX WKLY #3 – This Bigger picture does show that gold already had a break out and a back test for the first step out of the bear market sell off. Could it get tested again? Yes, but I would have to view  it as  less likely timing-wise.  ALSO PLEASE NOTICE THAT IF AN ICL WERE IN PLACE, NO ONE HAS ‘MISSED THE MOVE” in MINERS.  The next run will be very profitable, patience is often rewarded.

GDX WKLY –  And this would be a more bearish view IF we did not get any follow through higher next week.  It would be a break down & a back test, possibly about to be rejected below the 10 MA wkly.      Follow through Higher next week would really be Bullish looking, so we will let the markets tell us what is going on in due time.

 SO this is basically the time when I like to step back and get away from the day – to – day wiggles and look at the bigger picture.  Things continue to basically go as expected in this view.   The General markets have recovered from their dip under the 50sma, and continue bullishly higher as a bull market that claws back after each bear attach ( DCL).   Oil has put in another new low, and Natgas is a little bit more 50/50 at this point.   Some Energy stocks are shaping up, while others remain at the lows, so that section requires either being selective or continuing to be patient ( My picks of  AREX, ERF, RES, and a few others recently do hold up fine).  I am starting to see other Energy Stocks follow too.   Commodity stocks are acting well again, and I like many of those charts ( X, CLF, VALE, HBM, AKS, TGB, WRN, etc etc ) .  See prior reports. These are bullish looking set ups.

The Precious Metals Sector is also playing out as expected with the recent low in place. I’ll continue to monitor this area to decipher whether we are seeing an ICL or another DCL.    I actually am seeing more & more bullishness in this area, and I think many Miners that have been consolidating for months really want to run higher soon.  Some have already been doing so.  Check out  RGLD I explained this in last Mondays report, but I will cover this in more detail in future reports.   🙂

Enjoy the rest of your weekend,

~ALEX

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GDX WKLY – PLEASE LOOK AT THE SIZE OF THE MOVE FROM LAST WEEK ON GDX ( SEE THE CHART) .  NO ONE HAS ‘MISSED THE MOVE” in MINERS.  The next run will be very profitable.

GDX WEEKLY –  THAT MOVE LAST WEEK WAS NOTHING COMPARED TO WHAT COULD FOLLOW.  Look at the size of last weeks candle vs the move drawn here.  So if you are being patient or cautious,  and you see some of us buying Miners,  do not worry.   When the ICL is known to be in place,  many miners will start to run in a very profitable manner.  These consolidations have been large consolidations, often leading to big moves.

MATT from Australia writes to me about 1 or 2 times a year,  so it must be important right ?   🙂  Well he wrote while I was putting this report together to share this with me.   The Australian Dollar is breaking out VS the USD. Why is this important?

Much like Canada , Australia is known as a having a big resource economy. This could also point to  inflation in the commodities and precious metals area, leading to a revival in those sectors too.  Thanks Matt! 🙂