Friday July 14

We traded LABU ( XBI, IBB) in June and made some quick gains.  I believe that it may be time to go biotech again.

XBI – After a solid run higher from a bullish W pattern consolidation, the XBI & IBB has formed a bull flag.  Both broke higher with increasing volume yesterday. This can be bought here with a stop under the bottom of the flag.  I want to point out that this Flag MIGHT turn into a longer consolidation pattern too.  See the next chart…

XBI JULY 5th –  I noticed that some readers were shorting XBI & IBB in early July, so this was my chart from July 5th showing that a bull flag could form, not making it a profitable short.  It could run sideways for weeks until the 10ma on a weekly basis catches up. My target has been the former highs around 90 .

LIT ETF –  The LITHIUM ETF has been bullish for a while. After dropping to the 50sma, it consolidated and recently started breaking higher again. Lithium is in a bullish uptrend.  Longer term traders may appreciate this, but it is a gradual bull rise, possibly a bit too slow for some here.  ( It ran $24.50  to $30 this year, not bad, but you can see that it was slow & steady).

WTIC –  On JULY 11  the OIL chart continues to show that  a bottom is likely in place. We do have resistance overhead.

WTIC –  Oil is pushing against that resistance again. The set up looks bullish and Oil should be able to break through and move higher, at least to the 200sma.

GOLD – GOLD was rejected again at the 10sma. This is an unconfirmed swing low and I continue to watch and see if GOLD can break above that 10sma, or will it roll over again, like it did at the end of June?

GDXJ –  GDX & GDXJ lost their 10sma.  This is not a great sign,  it shows weakness to me.

It is Friday, the last trading day of the week, and not much has changed in my expectations.  The General markets have continued to move up out of the lows, Oil & Energy seem to be shaping up,  NATGAS needs time, and precious Metals need to be watched since moving off of their lows.   Read yesterdays report for more details if necessary.  So far , things are playing out as expected.  Enjoy your last day of trading for the week, and I’ll discuss some of the recent trades and newer set ups too, in the following part of this report.

~ALEX

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COMMODITIES ARE STILL PERFORMING WELL

GV – I like this set up, with price steadily rising since the May lows.  This could be bought anywhere  here, after it successfully tested the 50 & 200sma.

GV – Bigger picture.  This had a great run at the end of last year above that 200sma.

AKS – Steel stocks reversed higher yesterday.  AKS regained the 50sma 2 days ago and is now accelerating.

X –  US STEEL is also continuing to move up higher out of its base.  Moving out of a base can be a bit of a slow process, but gains are adding up. The rise higher can accelerate as buyers step in over time too.   Notice that X tagged the 10sma almost every day recently ( with a quick drop & tag the 50sma).  It could be bought anywhere here, it is entering ‘overbought’ in the stochastics soon, but it is not ‘over extended’.

BAY TRADER from the comments section emailed me about a few of these yesterday, so I said that I would cover a few in the report Friday  ( SPN, ICD, and HLX).  I too have been watching HLX as an energy play,  but I lost track of SPN, and I never knew ICD, so let’s take a look, I do like their charts.

HLX  (ENERGY)   – I have been watching HLX  for a break above the 50sma.  I think I am going to buy it there. I did not draw it, but it appears to be in the APEX of a triangle or wedge.   The 2 year weekly actually looks like a buy right here to me.

ICD – A set up like this is a bit tricky. It shows up on a %-Gaining screen, and day traders try to hop on & grab some gains, but will it keep running ?  Or will it continue bottoming?  I have seen both things occur, because the base is somewhat small after an extended sell off.    That said,  I do not buy this initial break out, but it goes on my watch list.  ( As a quick day trade, it could be bought as a ‘break out’ , but it will most likely drop back to back test that 50sma sooner or later).

SPN (Energy) –  I can see something like this happening in SPN  (Energy), it may break out , it may continue this bottoming process.   ** THE SECTOR has a lot to do with the success of an attempt to break out & run.  I do like the set up and I would buy the break out  for a quick trade, but it is still in a down trend like most energy stocks.

PPHM-   I missed this one earlier this week when it broke out from a solid bullish consolidation triangle.  Pharmaceuticals, Biotech, etc continue to base & pop and run.  Then they  consolidate , Pop, and run.   ( This is why I was watching CGIX & VSTM SO CLOSELY).

PPHM WKLY – This actually looks like it wants to run to $7, maybe $8, but I can’t chase it knowing that it can also drop to the 10sma on a daily chart,  before continuing higher.  If you like it, put it on your active watchlist and see if it dips down for a lower risk entry.

CY – I have been discussing and stalking CY for a long term buy & hold run higher.  This could have been bought at $13.50, but it can also still be bought here .  I think that the consolidation phase may be ending.  This should run into the $20’s if it breaks out and continues higher.

TSEM – I pointed out TSEM here,  and it broke out yesterday.  It remains a buy.

PXLW –  PXLW runs higher,  consolidates, runs higher, consolidates, etc.  It is now moving out from a descending wedge type sell off and could eventually run higher to the recent May highs again, forming a cup.  Currently it hs hot overbought in the stochastics, but they can stay that way.

  So we have had MANY trade set ups and trade ideas.  You CANNOT possibly buy all of them, but a variety of reader like a variety of trade ideas.  Choose 1 or 2?   You will have more chance of success trading a set up in a sector that is already bullish,  but if a sector is attempting to bottom, you also can get more of a bang %-Wise with a trade coming out of the lows and experiencing ‘short covering’,  so we have many choices for different levels of experienced traders.

  Some are just patiently waiting for he Precious Metals to have a confirmed bottom in place,  they want Miners set ups in a bull market run.  Others are also waiting for a confirmed bottom to be in place in Oil & Energy stocks. Some may want to just ride or trade longer term bullish set ups in the semiconductor or general markets in an ongoing bull market ( maybe  grabbing an ETF  like TQQQ  or UPRO when they regained their 50sma after the recent sell off) . Biotech trading has been successful too, since many  have also been bottoming & turned bullish since 2016.

Enjoy your Friday trading and have a great weekend!