Tuesday June 27th

In the last few reports I have been discussing a good number of  bullish  trade set ups  that have been forming after sell offs and consolidation periods.   In some areas, the entire sector seems to be reacting.  We will continue that discussion today.

 

SPX FROM JUNE 23 – The bulls and bears are battling, but this looks like a topping process.  We are due for a correction in the general markets.

QQQ – Monday saw a bit of a bearish reversal in the Q’s, and that MACD is not showing signs of strength.

I discussed in the weekend report that we are due for a steeper pull back into an ICL, and…

Pullbacks often lead to better buying set ups in a Bull Market…

AMD –  Pullbacks can lead to buying opportunity in Bull markets, so I will be watching for such opportunities if the General Markets pull back.  Maybe AMD does this?

AMD WKLY – Could AMD actually drop back to $10 at the blue line again and still be a bullish flag? It could.

TWTR – This as my June 21st chart of a large base in TWTR.  It is currently hit $19 on Monday and sold off a bit, so I’ll be watching these set ups going forward.

WTIC – Oil remains the same so far, so we NEED to be safe and wait for a break above the 10sma.  Many personal funds are getting chopped up attempting to buy each and every bounce that we have watched fail and break to new lows.   Personally , I Do now think this one may be the lows we have waited for, but patience still pays off.   I had a price projection last spring for OIL to hit $42 – we are there, and also I am starting to see possibly bullish things in Oil stocks.

UCO – Notice the similarity of these bottoms.  A break above the 10sma should indicate that the lows are in place. I’ll show you a good looking Oil stock later.

NATGAS from the weekend report –  We were expecting a break out from tight Bullish wedge.  NOTICE possible resistance drawn at the $3.10 area with the blue line.

 

NATGAS 6-26 –  We got the POP break out on Monday,  and $3.10 is the first area of resistance for a few  reasons.  Price may pull back there and try to break out again . Notice the March price action.

 

GOLD – From the weekend report,  I was looking for a break above that trend line & the 50sma

GOLD – We did not get it yet, and Gold broke quickly to a new low and recovered.  A new low means Gold is on day 33 or maybe day 1 depending on Tuesdays action.  ( I do not think that this was a day 3 failure since we did not have a ‘confirmed’ swing low in place). Gold over the 50 sma, 10sma, and the trend line starts a new daily cycle.

SILVER FROM THE WKEND REPORT – Also waiting for a break above the trendline.

Silver Dropped to a new low and that also extends this daily cycle.  A break out higher and above the trendline & Monday highs would indicate a new daily cycle.

GDX – As most of that GOLD & SILVER action happened, GDX did not sell off badly. GDX & GDXJ gapped down & moved higher, but fell no where near the recent lows. Miners still look to be on day 3.

 

I want to run through a large number of stocks that look to be setting up in a bullish manner. Please don’t allow this long list to overwhelm you, you do NOT need to own them all.  Pick one that you like, maybe 2 or 3?  This long list is being down for 2 reasons.

1. It gives our active traders and experienced traders a number of choices to choose from. They can make a watch list and follow these or trade a few that look ready.

2.  It highlights the fact that many ‘sectors’ that have been correcting and pulling back are now setting up to run higher.   So let’s continue to take a look at a variety of trade set ups in various sectors that have caught my eye recently…

 

AG – So are Gold & Silver about to break out above their trend lines?  If so,  AG actually looks like it could break out and do a nice run.  I would buy this break out, it may be best to wait for it to CLOSE  above the 50sma.

AG – THIS is a great looking chart at this point, isn’t it.  It has been on my watch list for quite a while. A break out higher looks quite bullish after a long consolidation of the 2016 gains.  I continue to monitor other Gold/Silver stocks, but I no longer own the GORO & GSV positions that I traded weeks ago. They are on my watch list.

 

UEC –  As a reminder, These 2 charts were the uranium stock that was breaking out last Friday from a solid base. I had them in the weekend report.

UEC –  So UEC  pulled back on Monday, but still looks fine.  It may just rest for a day or two, so if you were looking for an entry, it may have paused for you.  This pause could allow the 10sma to catch up, or price still may drop back a bit lower.  It still looks bullish with higher lows.

 

WTI –  This is another OIL stock that seems to be acting correctly.  I captured this chart last Friday, so lets look at Mondays.

WTI – Price dropped and reversed higher again, but it really needs a break above that 50sma before being bought. A close above the 50sma for a day or 2  should see bullish follow though.

 

 CLF – I captured this on Friday as it broke above the 50sma. It closed down 2 cents on Monday.  I mentioned recently that STEEL & STEEL STOCKS are looking good again,  so these would be in buy the dip mode , in my opinion.  AKS is also still above the 50sma.

 

CLF WEEKLY – So the weekly chart looked good too, but I did want to point out 1 cautionary note about a bottoming period…

 

Last September – October   CLF had a similar bottom and did a quick shake out before launching higher ( See the chart) .  Bottoming can be a process, but that daily chart above does look good. NOTE: After that shake out last October, CLF doubled in a couple of weeks.

 

 

SPWR WEEKLY – Solar stock SPWR could break out and run in my opinion. There is not a lot of resistance to the $14 area.

WNDW – I didn’t like the way this looked on a daily, after seeing  RUN,VSLR, CSIQ, and SPWR take off, so I decided to step back and see if it could become bullish in the future .  WNDW could join in after this consolidation. Notice how steeply this stock has run in the past, almost moving straight up.  WNDW remains on the watchlist.

OWCP – We discussed how many MJ stocks were beginning to perk up again after some LONG consolidations. OWCP is ( so far) holding above the 200sma. Zooming out…

OWCP – This one jumped in a big way in February, from todays price of $0.60 to $3.00.  and has consolidated since then above the 200sma.  I took a position in this one.  Even if it POPS like it did in April,  that 2 day POP was a double.

CNBX – I posted this chart after CNBX popped from 70 cents to $1.30 in 2 days!  It has remained on the 10sma for the next 3 trading days too, but has solid resistance overhead to contend with.

GV –  Do you remember when this stock took off and ran strongly as an infrastructure stock in November? $2.70 to $8.50!  It has consolidated gains and based out for a bit, breaking above a wedge.  It POPPED on Monday too, and closed back above the 50sma higher than it was when I captured this.  That is a bullish break, stop below the 50sma.  This could just run from here, however…

GV-  It is possible that the POP hit resistance and could pull back to the 50sma.  I will buy it there if I see that  happen.

CRMD –  I see bullishness in this base.  I THINK CRMD is going to pop & run, it just has that look.  It is only a 46 cent stock, but has solid potential with no resistance in that gap area.  I have done NO research on the company or why it gapped down, but I will have to look into that, because I want to own this one soon & catch that POP.

 

EYES –  Another Biotech stock that is looking bullish. The back test of the break out was the buy and it is also the 50sma. I like this set up and think that it has a good chance of upside follow through, barring any bad news.  I used to own this stock years ago and it did well back then.

Take a look at  CGIX & VSTM –  Those were 2 Biotech stocks that made great gains for those of us that took that trade this spring.  They are setting up after a long consolidation too, moving back above the 50sma.  BIOTECHS have been moving higher and remain bullish if you ask me.

 

LET’S TALK ABOUT NAK –   NAK is no longer acting bullishly. It is not horrible, but it could continue to slowly sell down.  It is not quite oversold and it did break below the 200sma last week  ( And I mentioned that I sold a good portion of mine).

I’d like to see this trend line hold and not close below the weekly 50ma. The weekly MACD is weak.

NAK – This is the slow break down,  and it could become a shake out, but we won’t know unless it recovers the 200sma, so for now I lightened up.  We could be forming a descending wedge pattern  ( bullish eventually).

  We went from a very slow period of trading and consolidation to break outs and runs higher in many sectors.  We are now seeing sector after sector perk up and some stocks are making very nice gains. We can watch these during pull backs and find lower risk entries, or buy some that are just breaking out from bases and try to gain some of the move higher there.  Oil and the Miners may join the move higher soon, so I will be watching for that too.  Patience during the choppy times can lead to profits during the run higher.    Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

 

~ALEX

128 replies
  1. deshy
    deshy says:

    Alex, Any thoughts on TGB? Just made it above the 50dma but not a lot of volume. Seems to have been consolidating for awhile… Thx!

  2. Geoff
    Geoff says:

    Hi Alex, Would be interested to hear if you had looked at this trio. MAG-NG-PGLC
    Thanks for the charts you obviously put a lot of effort into them.
    Geoff

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      G-Morning Geoff

      I think that I have looked at almost every miner out there this weekend 🙂

      It is hard for me to recommend them at this point, unless you are a short term trader.

      MAG is right at the 200sma, could break out and that would add to the bullishness.

      NG & PGLC both regained the 50, and look good ( NG approaching overhead resistance).

      So I do see quite a few miners looking good, they can be bought with stops, just in case we roll over after a short term run , into a final ICL drop. IF THAT HAPPENS, I do NOT think Miners will escape the plunge.

      If MAY was the ICL, these do look to be bulllishly set up.

  3. Jeff
    Jeff says:

    Hi Alex. I am in the red with NOG from the recent free fall. Does this look like it could recover from here?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi Jeff,
      It looks like a capitulation low may have just taken place on that high volume day. The selling may have finished up.

      It can recover if Oil has put in a low, but when will it get back to your price point? I dont know…sometimes they just bounce along the bottom until buyers step in.

      It has been extremely oversold for 3 months, so it also could rocket out of the lows with short covering.

  4. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    OWCP from the report… I wrote that ” I took a position in this one”.

    The volume increased yesterday to about 1 million.
    This is also the one in the report that I mentioned Popped 100% in 2 days in April.

    Today in the first 10 minutes, the volume already almost equals all of yesterdays total volume. This could get interesting if it gets above the 50 sma too. These MJ stocks can gain 20%, 40% or whatever they want %-wise in a day or two.

    Remember this one doubled in 2 days. see charts in the report

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Well, you may have noticed that I’m not really recommending Energy stocks until OIL confirms the bottom. Some people will buy if I say it looks good, but they wont sell if it breaks the lows. That makes me Leary about recommending any energy stocks over the past 2 – 3 months, because they keep breaking into new lows and some will just ride them down.

      That said, Many have stopped selling off and could be setting up, and SWN falls into that category.

      Double bottom low with MACD divergence, but kind of early to take a chance.

  5. RonB
    RonB says:

    Alex KL.TO is one really irritating miner on the TSX – it just will not stop. It reminds me of CDE from January 2016. This used to be NMI and I made good with it last year. It’s good for me to be able to put some C$ to work without paying exchange.

      • SonOfGud
        SonOfGud says:

        check out the 15min chart & look at the d/t channel since early June.
        We are just bouncing off the bottom now.
        Can count 5 waves down, and the 5th wave also has 5.
        Question is, whether there will be a deep overthrow down to Alex’s descending wedgy

      • SonOfGud
        SonOfGud says:

        hey J!,, in for the night shift?
        .. been watching TRCH earlier today.
        Moving along bigly 🙂

        • Johnny
          Johnny says:

          Hey Sog! Yes sir. They have the well in Permian Basin that is getting closer to completion every day. They have the Orogrande coming along. They have new tech on their side plus they are in great shape debt wise according to Dallas Salazar. They have other E&P companies inline for drilling more wells. They are in profit mode even with oil in the low 40 range. And there is talk of a buyout if Orogrande develops as huge as Masterson ( the geologist) thinks it will. I have my shares set to keep half and sell half. I don’t yet know my final sell point for the first half. It will come to me. Right now its mostly rumors, news will follow. 🙂 I did get in the UCO trade at lod yesterday. My goal is to hold it for 5 to 10 days and sell .
          My metals are all just old core positions. TRCH is definitely the most exciting trade I currently have. It doesn’t move every day but it does hold up well when crude drops. When it does move, its been good of late. For me, its a fun stock.
          I shot Cason a line in Hawaii. He sure picked great place to live ( at least I believe that its great). I took off today to take my daughter to the dentist. She sure doesn’t want to go! Ok, I better go. Thumbs up Mr. Sog!!! 🙂

  6. Ken
    Ken says:

    Crude Oil (USO):
    I am pretty confident that June 23 was a low…..no clue if it is a DCL or ICL but a low none the less. CF?
    Long PACD and opened some USO calls on the open. fwiw

  7. CS
    CS says:

    Great report Alex, thanks for the trading ideas and NAK (I lightened up too) update. I wasn’t feeling well earlier and missed buying some OWCP before its spike. Oh well, that’s life! : )

  8. SonOfGud
    SonOfGud says:

    Alex.. RGSE solar worth a buy back down at these levels?
    corrected down -20% since high the other day

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I like the sector, so the way I look at RGSE is that it really surged a lot , hit that 50sma and is dropping ( So far) on 1/4 of the volume that it broke upward on.

      That is usually a good sign , it might try to tag the 10sma, and it could be bought there if it holds. You also could take a chance, and buy a partial position now just in case it pops again.

      I do think that because the sector is acting well, it could get a sympathy run too.

  9. Ken
    Ken says:

    I could see the SPX hitting 2400 at Support for it’s corrective wave and the of to new highs…….CF?

  10. Kenny
    Kenny says:

    Started AG position….looks good for long term hold. Will add accordingly, and hold for a few months. Future earnings forecast looks encouraging to me.

  11. nancytheartist
    nancytheartist says:

    Everyone, I am aware of the new “saber rattling”…and we know Trump acts as well as talks….so, if there was another military event….does gold go up or down? Oil? How about the effect on the market in general? Has anyone made observations before?

    • Nord
      Nord says:

      I am of the belief of these types of events are only very short-lived and creates some intraday / week volatility, but the securities destination is more or less given in advance over the longer term.

    • Edward Bernhart
      Edward Bernhart says:

      Hi Nancy, Looking in the rear-view-mirror if one had just bot the tools of war say LMT 4 years ago @$104/sh (now $278/sh) not to mention the 2.6% dividend I for one would be a whole lot better off. We will have to watch a new 3x ETF DFEN and see how it does.

  12. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    Took a starter in CRMD at 465… Well larger than a starter cuz its so small… lets gamble

  13. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    Stopped out of my TQQQ today with a small profit. If I was a day trader, I would have made a lot more, that was a relatively quick ride up and down. As I posted yesterday, TQQQ looked like it was topping so I tightened my stops. If I was day trading, I would have sold it all yesterday but I’m trying not to overtrade in my retirement accounts. Looks like Alex’s ICL scenario may be in play. Still in my JNUG

      • Steve Tytler
        Steve Tytler says:

        Yes, I would like to see TQQQ get down to about $88 … but may not make it that low. Unfortunately, the dips have been very shallow lately so you have to be fast to catch them. If TQQQ bounces off the 50 SMA and takes off again I will have once again screwed up my exit.

  14. Cason
    Cason says:

    Weak sauce for gold today. Dollar is getting crushed. 1% is a HUGE move in Forex. 2nd daily cycle theory taking a kick in the teeth today. No, nothing’s broke and wouldn’t flip out of positions based on 1 day. BUT metals had a golden opportunity to take advantage of this and did not.

  15. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Just got back to my screens- A lot of what was up this morning seems to be getting dragged down a bit.
    OWCP – now only up 6%. I didn’t sell, I’ve been away today.

    Nothing looks too ugly that I can see yet.

    QQQ right on the 50sma.

    USD dropped down to lows, no big reaction in Gold or Silver with that.

    USO & UCO look good, both crossed above their 10 sma for the first time in a while. ( Inventory report tomorrow in Oil)
    Shippers coming off of the lows ( SBLK, SALT, TNK, TOO, NM, – oh oh, DRYS popping, look away Ken, Look away!).

    Nova Gold ( NG) looks like at chanp at this point, breaking above that 50sma.

    Just sitting on my hands today, I haven’t traded anything. Havent sold anything.

    Need to look things over right now.

  16. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I sold my CSIQ @ $15.40 – it may just be dropping to tag the 10sma, but at this point that is $1 lower and I want to lock in gains and watch it. It doesnt seem to be acting the same as VSLR & RUN – still in a base

    I am still holding SPWR ( for now) .

    • RonB
      RonB says:

      It makes sense. VSLR and RUN had the largest short positions to unload of the group – about 16 days. The rest were 1/2 of that or less.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Yeah, as a trader, I trade frequently and dont always post the trades, but those 2 have been in a few reports and so I figured a few here may own them.

        I don’t really see anything wrong with them, but the follow through stalled and I dont see this as a bull flag at this point, so it could drop further.

        Just a “lock in Gains’ move.. Most of it was purchased about $2- 2.50 lower.

  17. Ken
    Ken says:

    COSTCO (COST):
    Buying at these levels stop below recent lows. I bght. this with a long term hold in mind via my 401K.
    Costco is not going away………imho.

  18. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    SQQQ in at 31.48 – Horrible entry… May close out EOD for better entry later. Good quick scalp today tho.

  19. Cason
    Cason says:

    API reports bearish build in crude, +860K barrels, disappoints after hours. Tomorrow could be a good entry, if US data then has a surprise upside against API. Which is actually pretty common. Stop below recent (ICL??) lows.

    • Johnny
      Johnny says:

      Thanks for posting this Cason. I took the UCO trade at 10:30 Eastern… LO Day! . So far so good.:)

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Dude!!!! So mad! I had a limit purchase in and it missed by 7 cents on UWT! Ugh! Bc the oil inventory was released in the middle of the night! I got up at 515AM and it was already too late to get it in. Ugh!!!

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