Thursday June 29th – What Are You Waiting For?

Yesterday chart of NAZDAQ-  I did not think support would hold because of the ‘timing’.  We are due for an ICL  type drop, unless this is just going to continue higher & higher in a parabolic blow off top now.

NASDAQ –  We had a strong reversal, so  “BUY THE DIP” is still happening,  but I do still have my doubts.  This regained the entire down day, and that is usually quite bullish, so you have to respect that, but how long can this go higher?  I looked at FB, NVDA, GOOG, AMZN, etc and so far a bigger correction seems due sooner than later, but a sideways consolidation can also relieve weakness over time.   I have this on day 29-  that leads me to feel that this will drop again soon, but as stated in the past,  TRIANGLE FORMATIONS in the markets can affect cycle counts.

I expected a deeper drop, and FB, NVDA, GOOG, etc look like they would drop too, but this buy the dip reversal is real looking. Follow through will be the key.

USD –  The USD continues to drop and Gold did NOT react bullishly again.

WTIC FROM YESTERDAY – I expected follow through despite the inventory report, we had a CONFIRMED SWING LOW in place. This is the BUY when you have a confirmed swing low, and a stop below the swing.

WTIC –  We did get the  follow through expected with a confirmed swing low in place.  Watch the overhead resistance at the 50sma.

NATGAS inventory report is today, and NATGAS reached my resistance area.  Since the report is after the open – you still have time to remove leveraged positions if you do not want to take the risk that this could roll over.  I will cover the BIG PIC view more in the weekend report .

GOLD – Gold didn’t respond very bullishly to the USD breaking down.  This leads me to believe that there is weakness showing up here and Gold may just drop into the next dcl ( ICL?).  Look at the MACD.

SILVER – The same is happening here.

GDX –  3 charts from yesterdays report…GDX seems to be preparing to break & run one way or the other

GDX – No big POP in the Miners with the Dollar swooping down either.  This daily cycle could top at any time since it is on day 5, so is it preparing to break DOWN?   It may tag the 200sma and if it cannot push through, it could drop for weeks.

Trades

CY – JUNE 15 I have discussed on the past that CY is on my watchlist.  If the NASDAQ is going to do a parabolic blow off top,  this is a nice set up after a long consolidation.  I posted this chart and said to keep it on a watch list,  especially “longer term’ investors. This TAG of the MA could be bought as support, but this consolidation could go on & on until it is ready to break out.

CY –  It started to try to break out Wednesday , and that is a buy for longer term investors with a stop above the 50sma.  This may be ready to run.  Some may even want to wait and buy a bit later if it shows follow through n the break out.

My ONLY CONCERN? Is this a double left shoulder and will this consolidation form another right shoulder?  If the NASDAQ falls to an ICL,  a 4th shoulder could form here.

OWCP –  This is an  MJ trade mentioned.  I said that OWCP  did NOT Hold above the 50sma, so it could continue to bottom out too.  Please understand that these MJ stocks can MOVE FAST.  I DID point out that OWCP popped 100% in April in just 2 days.  It popped over 30% higher on Tuesday alone. These can move in a big way.  It dropped 7% yesterday.

SPWR –   I actually added to my SPWR position that I bought as it broke out near the 50sma and 200sma.  I now see this as a possible desire to leave this 10 month base behind, and that move could do well if it follows through.  I will now use a loose trailing stop on 1/2 of my position.

CLF June 22 – I mentioned that many STEEL stocks were in a ‘bottoming process’,   so you can enter a position at this double bottom low ( with MACD rising & divergence) , and then you look for progress along the way to confirm this.  That 50sma would be the next  good sign of progress.

CLF JUNE 23-  There we go,  progress overtaking that 50sma

CLF –  Follow through,   so it does continue to look like the Steel stocks and other Metals stocks are bottoming & lows are in place.  The next stop is likely $7.75 so this was a move from about $5.50 to $7.75 if it gets there.  NOTICE THAT RSI IS ABOVE 50 FOR THE 1ST TIME SINCE THE FEB PEAK! 🙂

TGB – I pointed out this nice bullish consolidation in yesterdays report.  If Metals are bottoming, this could break out now.

TGB –  So this was TGB yesterday. It looks good ,  I am in it now, and hoping for a break out very soon, rather than a continued consolidation.   Conservative traders may want to wait for the break out.  Buy that and expect price to run to former highs for a start.

ZEUS  ( for Tiger 5)  –  Zeus has the same “Bottoming Process” as CLF. It also has moved over the 50sm so I would expect that it will tag that 200sma and it MIGHT stall there before breaking higher.

HBM–  HBM had a shake out low and now has a higher high as it breaks through the 50sma and attacks the 200sma. Notice that the RSI hre is also above 50% for the first time since it peaked in February.

SO in past reports I posted charts of Steel, Aluminum, and Copper stocks.  These are progressing nicely and have been a decent place to park some money until  GOLD, SILVER, & Miners start their next directional move. As you can see, not much has changed in our view of these various sectors, I am watching NATGAS to see if it has peaked after the inventory report,  or can it break higher on day 5?

Enjoy your trading day on Thursday ,  I will have a BRIEF report on Friday, only covering a few trade ideas or maybe touching on NATGAS after todays results. Thanks for being here at Chartfreak!

~ALEX

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HBM POSSIBILITY