Thursday June 22 – BOUNCE?

 

This was my IBB Weekly chart on June 20th.  It is breaking out in bullish manner ( It hit 316 yesterday) and has the potential to get to 330 in a few weeks. The daily chart could back test the break out or it may just bull flag and continue higher.

I will discuss this further later in the report.

 

WTIC – This is only day 32, and this can drop further. I have been extremely cautious about trying to catch the lows in Energy, and many have been getting cut up very badly attempting to buy each bounce here.

We do not know how deeply Oil will drop this time, but back when it went to $26 in 2016,  I actually called for $26 that using a fib formula.  Hardly anyone believed that that could happen at that time too.

XLE –  This did look to be firming up again, but it broke back down to new lows yesterday. A good buying opportunity is coming, but patience has been the best trade in energy so far. Many traders on other blogs or forums are buying every bounce & losing money on each trade.

 

GOLD – Yesterday was day 30 and I’ve explained that this can drop for 33, 35, 38 days into an ICL or it can put in a DCL here and bounce. A move above $1249 basically gives us an unconfirmed swing low.

 

GOLD – Since we are still unsure whether May was an ICL or not, one MIGHT choose to try a swing trade if we get a swing.  Play the bounce.  If so, IT MUST Be viewed as short term, and we will look for signs of strength  ( is this a 2nd daily cycle?)  or Weakness, topping by day 11 or so. The ICL could come quickly in a waterfall drop during July.

 

SIlver- 2 paths based on our 2 scenarios.

GDX – I have already mentioned that in the past,  triangle formations can and have messed up cycle timing in my opinion. A DCL could form here, and then we watch it play out from there.

GDX – Another idea.   This was showing just a 1 or 2 day bounce & quick drop to the final low, so your stop needs to be Wednesdays low.  

GDX –  This would be if we had an ICL in May, your stop will never trigger

GG –  So looking at a few Miners that make up GDX, GG looks like a bullish wedge actually. A break out is a buy. We broke the May lows, but individual stocks will do their own thing at times.

SOLAR POWER

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Some solar stocks are really moving along .  Look at RUN & VSLR, these are weekly charts and they are big moves on the daily charts.

 

VSLR –  One of those break outs from a solid base,  $3 to $5+.

CSIQ –  SO I bought CSIQ yesterday as it began to break out and I posted that in the comments section. Short term upside I am looking at the prior highs as a possibility.

 

CSIQ WEEKLY – and this is the base that CSIQ is breaking from. Longer term upside potential could be good. I am NOT playing this based on fundamentals, this is technical analysis, use stops and raise them as you see fit if you enter this trade.

 

SPWR –  This one has not broken out yet, but it is a Solar stock that ran from under $6 to $8.50, and has pulled back onto support while consolidating gains. It is a low risk buy, with a stop under the 200 & 50 sma, and may follow the other solar stocks bullishness.

SPWR WEEKLY –  A base with Excellent potential here if these have solid follow through.

 

LONGER TERM TRADE SET UP

 

For those that like long term investments.  You know that they are NOT easy to ride, but they look it in hindsight.  I have pointed this out with AAPL, GOOG, FB, NVDA, etc.  They lok like nice easy runs higher, but they have their share of ups and downs.

 

EXAMPLE AAPL–  NOT STRAIGHT UP,  but they do double over time.

 

TWTR–  So I noticed TWTR breaking out yesterday, back over the major moving averages. This is after running from $14 to almost $20 and then consolidating.

 

TWTR WEEKLY –  This is a large Double Bottom Base that has formed.  It may or may not be ready to break out & run, but if the markets continue to defy gravity, TWTR may begin to run up higher out of this base. The overall set up is becoming bullish.

 

AMD–  I have talked about my bullish thoughts on AMD.  This was my chart from Feb 15.  It was a solid uptrened.  I was looking at the 50sma and thinking that a pull back could be a buy idea…on the watch list it went.

 

AMD –  In MAY it got crushed at earnings release, but the selling stopped at the 200sma daily. I pointed out this possible break of the down trend line yesterday. It did break out and was up over $1 yesterday. This is NOT an easy ride, with all of the consolidation periods, correct?  The potential is still very good…

AMD WKLY –  The big picture view makes it look easy and also indicates that there could be a lot more upside if the markets remain bullish. Long term trades are tough to ride at times, but when they run the gains are good.

CNBX was one of those MJ stockks that Popped 2 days ago . It has pulled back to a possible support area, but is still a bit risky if you consider that the 10sma may not hold.  In that case, you would want to wait for a break out above the 50& 200sma ( The circle),  but that is $1.40  vs buying here at $1.00.

Nothing has changed in my views of OIL AND PRECIOUS METALS.   OIL & ENERGY could be setting up for a great trade, but right now they have been repeatedly sold off and it needs to find its lows. An ICL & a Yearly Cycle Low can be deeper than many think.  I originally looked at $42 for Oil, but this can go lower. I’m not buying Energy until I see a confirmed swing low, and I will post it when I do.  As for GOLD , SILVER, & Miners?  I have posted my thoughts in every recent report. We may see a dcl here and it can be bought , but should be viewed as short term with stops in place,  until we see signs of strength or evidence of break down.  Even if you think that waiting for a while is better for you personally,  if this is the second daily cycle, you should be able to catch Miners coming out of thier lows later and make great gains.  This has been a very tricky set up, and I belive it is due to the triangle formations. They should play out bullishly in time.

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~ALEX

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You can read this section later if you are short on time, it does not affect todays trading.

LESSONS or ONE FINAL NOTE:  Please understand that I need to explain this.  The comments is a great place to share ideas and views.  I like to read what others are thinking, trade ideas that they have, etc, whether I would take that trade or not.  And we have a great community of readers sharing ideas there.

 

  Many people with various styles post their thoughts or trade ideas in the comments section, and that is great. I like to see what others are trading or how they may be viewing things too.  NOTE: If I do not agree with that trade, I don’t always say something, I just let each person share an idea, take their trade, and let the reader use their own judgement.  I used to give my opinion to try to help people see things from another view, but some took offense. So some trades I agree with, others I may even be seeing  the opposite and say nothing.   I would even recommend that you DO NOT follow every trader into their trade that they post, especially if you do not understand their reasoning,  their long term plan,etc.,  and here is why :

 

I have been getting an increasing number of emails this year saying, ” I followed ‘so & so’ into this trade and I am stuck with losses,  what would you do here?”  Or ” I followed ‘so & so’ into  XXXX short, but it has taken off higher,  where should I sell or do you think I should just keep adding to the short?”.   I used to answer all of these emails to the best of my ability to try to help, but I cannot do that any longer.  Since it was NOT MY Trade that was entered,  I have to look it up, try to figure out the thinking of the one buying or shorting it,  and then figure out how to solve a trade gone bad. draw a chart and try to help, but that takes a lot of time.  At times, since it was NOT my trade,  it is difficult to draw up a corrective plan on a trade that I never may have even taken.  I’m sure that all understand, sometimes you just need to let go of a bad trade or ask the person that posted it what the follow up plan is.  ( Some have told me that they cannot post questions in the comments from their work computer, so they are asking me for help).

 

PLEASE DO NOT MISUNDERSTAND ME, I DO NOT MIND EMAIL QUESTIONS.

 

Example:  I will use  IBB as an example, but there have been plenty of emails about buying energy at the lows, because someone else said the timing was right, or they were buying Miners as they dropped, etc –  all trades that I did not say I was taking.   Remember: Some people are happy accumulating Miners even as they may drop lower, knowing that they should be higher soon. That is their style, a long term view,  and it is not wrong according to their plan.  They may say,  ” I am buying  XXX here, I like the price point” – but don’t follow them if it is not ‘Your style’ to accumulate and accept temporary losses.  Some people cannot stomach long term views like that, other find it rewarding over the long term.

IBB at $316 –  Shorting this set up at the break out was NOT my trade, but some read it as a false break out and shorted it.  That is fine, it could have been a false break out, but if not, everyone short needs to know their own next step. Close the trade or ride it out.     I actually went long here, and I posted in the comments that I expected this to play out higher, I viewed it as a bullish set up.  If you shorted this break out and are still in it, you must have a plan.  Asking me if you should be adding to shorts when I am long is a tough thing to wrap my head around  🙂    Yes, This is an extended move,  and it COULD drop & back test the break out, but it also could Bull flag like a giraffe neck and continue higher. I just sell 1/2 of my long here & ride the rest with a stop. My mentality is not on the short side, but asking someone in the comments who is may help.

 

IBB from the Long side  – This was the 1st chart of this report taken on June 20, and you can see that I see short term upside to 33o as a possibility.  We are at 316 as of yesterday.  I could picture a bull flag and continuation higher.  I can picture a back test of the break out too. So…

IBB & This is the BIGGER PICTURE  – Since this is not a set up that I would consider shorting,  you need to ask the person that you followed for more information on that trade.  He may have a plan where he is looking at short term fib levels, or short term Elliot wave expectations, where he does see this dropping back ( in a wave 4 or something), and if I tell you to sell here and it drops in E.W. wave 2 pullback, or a wave 4 pullback,  and he or she expects that dip & will unload shorts then?  My telling you to sell right now , in that case, isn’t helpful.   Plus I know that most commenters are happy to answer those types of questions.  My answer is that I went long, this is a big bullish break out so far, and I cannot be sure if it will pullback or just bullflag and continue higher.  It is extended on the daily chart.

 

The point is, due to the time involved and number of subscribers that I have, I am unable to answer every question on trades that were not my trade set up. I am more than happy to answer email questions on things that I have discussed, and I have actually answered EVERY email question since I began this website.  If you have a question and I have not been clear, I view that your question often helps me to put it in the next report for everyone to read.  I am happy to hear from the readers here.

If a trade is taken that is not a trade that I believed in though,  and it goes in the wrong direction and now one is hanging on to losses, my answer is just going to have to be,  ” You should sell.”  That is pretty much what I do when a trade goes against me, unless it is a reasonable part of the plan to add on any further dips.   Have a plan and a back up plan  🙂