May 29 – Weekend Report

Trading is closed in the U.S. on Monday.  Here is your week in review…

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SPX –  This is from our Friday morning report. A week ago I mentioned that it seems that the slam down may have cleared the deck of sellers and put in a dcl. We still have had all right translated daily cycles in this run. Please read the chart.

SPX – We could get shallow pull backs at anytime, but a loose trailing stop can keep someone that is ‘long’ in position. A hard stop could also be placed under the 50sma, since that shouldn’t be broken again for a while.  This is now a 3 month consolidation and a break out.

XLF WEEKLY – Looks like a H&S , but is it finally Improving? Watch for a break down or a break out at the 50sma on a  daily,  10 ma on this weekly.

SPX WEEKLY – We have a break to new highs, but the MACD isnt confirming that it has good momentum, so it is a warning in the back of my mind along with that XLF. Again,  just a trailing stop will be fine, but I would not be shorting these markets.

I keep hearing different wave counts, it seems that everyone has a different wave count.  I was asked for one, and I would just keep it simple and enjoy the ride. I AM NOT AN E.W. Technician .   Could this be 3 of 5?  5 of 5?  This would be nearing an end if it was.

NASDAQ – This has just been on a weekly uptrend that seems to be getting steeper along the way.  Quite Bullish.  The NASDAQ broke from its consolidation in APril

USD – This could be forming an ICL. If so, we may finally see some real weakness in Gold  ( Miners and Silver already had big pull backs, but Gold has been holding up better).

WTIC – I pointed out a ‘doji’ at resistance last week, and Oil dropped from there. Friday we saw a noteworthy reversal, but I still think Oil can drop further. THE FOLLOW THROUGH HIGHER OR LACK OF FOLLOW THROUGH THIS WEEK IS IMPORTANT IN MY OPINION.  The stochastics is overbought and curling down now. Day 15 of a new daily cycle, and I still think that the ICL could lie ahead.  A break & Close ABOVE the blue line would be a sign of strength, and suggest that an ICL happened in early May, but ENERGY / OIL stocks are lack luster at best.  All shorts must cover above the blue line.

WTIC WEEKLY– A drop below $48.18 puts a weekly swing high in place. Time will tell.

XLE , OIH, and Energy stocks have not been bullish with OILS big bounce.

I have pointed that out in many XLE & OIH charts like this one.

OIH WEEKLY – CERTAINLY NOT BULLISH at this point, and the XLE looks like a weekly swing high.

DWT–  This is an intraday chart of a short Oil ETF.  I am short and I was watching this for clues going into the close Friday.  DWT  DID break above that line into the close, so we will see if there is any follow through next week.  The hardest part is that in the US, we have a 3 day weekend.

NATGAS – More sideways chop.  There are reasons to feel Bullish or bearish on Natgas, and so far for me  it has just become a short term trading vehicle.  The COT remains heavily short this week, but price held the 50sma. I am somewhat neutral.  A break below the 50sma may start a sell off this late in a daily cycle, rather than just a shake out.

NATTY WEEKLY – Somewhat Neutral, it has become a bit overbought, a drop would give the appearance of a H&S. Needs more time.

GOLD , SILVER, & MINERS –

My Expectations remain the same.

GOLD – A new high on Day 13 and a break from a Bull Flag was pointed out as a possibility last week.  Gold is now near 2017 highs.  This LOOKS bullish, but it might just draw in Bulls for the slaughter. Day 13 or even 15 of a 33 day daily cycle is still L.T.  Next week is important, but break outs do fail, as shown on the chart.  Gold has definitely been stronger than Silver & Miners.

SILVER –  Silver is not near the 2017 highs.  If it stalls at the 50sma and drops equal length to the last drop, it could get really scary for the Bulls, and we need that to put sentiment into the trash.  I’m actually thinking that Silver MIGHT just drop slightly below recent lows as Gold drops, and it is possible that most of the selling might have occurred in April.

SILVER WEEKLY – If the ICL is ahead, this makes perfect sense.

SILVER – I still get the “But what if…” questions, and I do understand peoples thinking here 🙂     Many took long positions at the DCL and rode them for a week or two as a trade.  I did that and I am now out of the trade.  IF silver took off upside, we have not missed anything, a DCL will come and the next leg higher would be the BIG one.  I will cover more on this later.  Look at the chart and notice that in 3 weeks Silver went from $16 to $17.38 – you did not miss a huge rally even if you didn’t buy the DCL.

GDX – Gold is near 2017 highs,  but look at Miners. Gold broke from a Bull flag Friday, up $12,  GDX was up 23 cents?  I still have people telling me that the ICL is in place, but the Markets look to be telling me something else. I have No problem patiently waiting here. If I jumped in LONG with the GOLD break of a bull flag,  I would have had a 23 cents gain?  The Peak remains on day 9.

GDX WEEKLY –  An unconfirmed  swing high has formed. A drop into an ICL could give us a false break down from this triangle pattern & then become a strong rally, because many would short that & be forced to cover.  Sometimes Patience is best as things play out.

GDX WEEKLY – This is the same chart as above  –   Did you miss a huge rally in May so far for the Miners?  No, and even if this breaks out higher and rallies from here to the former highs in August 2016, we would catch  a huge amount of that rally.

GDX WEEKLY –  This is the same chart as above – Notice that we see lower lows and lower highs in 2017. One more drop to a double bottom low would offer an EXCELLENT buying opportunity.

GDXJ – Gold broke out of a Bull Flag and was up $12, yet GDXJ was only up 18 cents , and it sold off into the close.  You have NOT missed a rally here in May.

“What if N.Korea tests a Nuke & Gold takes off?”   “What if someone declares war on N.Korea?”   “What if…”

“But what if…?”  🙂   I can still picture a rally to the 50sma this week as possible and that would still be a lower peak.  IF GDXJ rocketed higher and broke out above the 50sma, above day 9, above the blue line,  I would definitely close any short positions and consider “Long” strategy, but I only say this because I am being asked “What if…” daily.     My primary  thinking is that too many people want to go buy here & go long ( or are buying the Bull flag break out).  Sentiment will be flushed out if price gets flushed out into an ICL, and that is still my primary thinking. Day 9 may be the peak.

That has been your market weekly review. Enjoy the rest of your long weekend in the U.S., and if you are living elsewhere, enjoy your trading day.

~ALEX

NAK – I mentioned that I noticed how NAK would drop after a sideways rally and then turn higher, and then we started to see that on May 24th.

NAK – It also started to turn higher, so we’ll see if it can break above the 10 sma and find some follow through buying.

CYTR WEEKLY – We had a nice pop of 40% last week.  Congrats if you took this trade with me. The weekly chart shows some large upside potential. They participate in a presentation on Jun 2 Friday, this could boost the stock or be a ‘sell the news’ event.  A reaction may occur one way or the other, so you could lighten up and lock in some profits if your position was large, even if you want to continue to ride the trade.