May 12th – It’s a Beauty

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That sunset sure is a beauty, and this chart below is also a  beauty to many of us that went long…

 

NATGAS responded bullishly to the inventory report and we look to be starting the next leg up.  This could return to the December highs.  Every year people tell me that they are “Buying NATGAS for the winter seasonality in January”,  but that has fooled traders in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017.  I do believe that  Natgas is set to move higher now though.

 

WTIC – So many people want Oil to be coming out of an ICL, but what I see and feel so far does not have what it takes to move me to announce that. I dont see a whole lot of bullishness in energy stocks, and I also mentioned in past repors that I now expected Oil to take out the $42 area before an ICL would be in place.  That break down to $42 is not mandatory, but so far this bounce doesn’t feel quite right.  The circle is solid resistance .

 

XLE – XLE broke the downtrend again but then dropped back yesterday while Oil was going higher. I’m giving energy stocks a little time to be safe.

 

GOLD from yesterdays report.  These were the Numbers to look for for either a new low or a swing to be put in place.

GOLD –  Guess what?  Still no swing low in Gold, but I do think that the lows are likely in place based on the Miners.  ( Edit: This morning Gold broke above the 1228.70)

GDX – GDX was able to get above the 50sma and wrestled with the 200sma for a day or two.  I am watching that area now.  GDX actually is on day 5.

 

GDXJ – This ETF of juniors struggled along the 50sma (twice), and that is where I was shorting it.  I am watching to see how it acts as it gets near that area.  Yesterday was Day 5 also .

 

 Yesterday many of the stock picks that we have been looking at were doing very well.  VSTM, NAK, MACK, NATTY, XONE, DDD, VJET, and others still  look properly set up to move higher ( some 3-d stocks may need a breather).   NATGAS has a nice consolidation and a break out after the inventory report, and thats a beauty for those of us that went long.  I also think that there is still time to enter or add to this position with yesterdays confirmation. I added to that and MACK yesterday.

So that’s a brief wrap up, enjoy your Friday trading!

 

~ALEX

.

  I also want to review just a couple more things that I think could go along with the theme of being a  beauty.

 

MACK has been setting up in this long base, I’ve actually been bored to tears riding this thing out for over a month from the $3 area.  This was my March 28 chart and I loved that base.

MACK had earnings and it popped above that base. Yesterdays dip was normal and I think that this chart is still a thing of beauty if you are holding on.  The long consolidation should be behind us, I still think that it wants to run higher over time and earnings are behind us for a while.

Speaking of a thing of beauty! Have I mentioned 3-D Printers lately?  Yes, I have, these are shaping up nicely, and we caught them out of the lows. They will now be ‘buy the dip’ stocks.

Yes, you may be sick of seeing it, but it is One of my favorite 3-D Printer charts, simply because it shows the potential. This stock was $130.

XONE –  The 3-D Printer sector has been heating up and XONE showed signs of strength going into earnings.  Here it was breaking out from $10+

$11 +

$13

The 3 -d Printing sector is doing excellent and has a lot of upside room in a recovery. They will be “Buy the dip” candidates

 

DDD MAY 8th – The weekly break out targets $30

This has been a beauty of a move. We’ll keep an eye open for the 3-D printers pulling back.  If you own one like VJET or DDD, I personally sell 1/2 and ride the rest.

129 replies
  1. Bounce
    Bounce says:

    NAK news out. Up to 2.50 on 300k volume. EPA lifted veto in return NAK withdrew lawsuit. Stocktwits makes me want to sell immediately …

    • Bounce
      Bounce says:

      Alex,

      I have May 2.0 calls, June 1.5 calls & 2.0 calls, and August 1.0 calls; I’m thinking about unloading calls and holding the majority of my shares. Do you have any price targets or estimates/expectations for the stock today? I’m thinking its a sell the news event, just wondering how high we climb before that bear raid. Thanks

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        That is a tough one, and I know exactly what you’re saying. We get a gap open and then it trickles down by the end of the day. The other thing on my mind was

        “What if”… Funds that formerly were buying it on the last run Aug to Dec – slowly bailed out with the EPA involved. Now with things being more favorable, have funds started adding again? When a fund comes in to buy XXXXXX amt of shares, they usually do it in increments so that they dont drive the price up. Pullbacks in NAK were quite sideways on the last nice run higher. So now NAK gapped up 5 days ago & it never filled, and I thought that the reason may be the renewed buying pressure.

        Long story short ( Or maybe that was a short story that I made longer than necessary again 🙂
        No I dont have a target today for a surge top or a possible pull back.

        $2.40 -$2.65 was my original targeted range for this run using fib extensions

  5. Brian
    Brian says:

    With a swing in GOLD this morning I’m actually going to take a small UVXY trade here on the crazy off chance the Stock Market is allowed to correct for more than 1 day lol. Still holding full NUGT position. I am going to take a starter DUST in the $28s.. I still think it has a real good chance of getting to $24s before all is said and done. We shall see

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Same. I’m getting crushed in CLF. I also have X which is doing poorly but I got it AFTER that earnings gap so I’m only down a couple bucks there. It’s right st my planned stop so kinda do or die time for me on that 1 trade.

  9. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    Alex are you still looking for a coming ICL in miners or is this it? JNUG broke it’s December lows and has been rocking for a few days. I feel like a dummy sitting on the sidelines waiting for an “ICL” in miners and looking at the money I could have made in NUGT/JNUG over the past few days. Did I miss the boat again?

    • Rob
      Rob says:

      with all do respect, steve, the reports this week outline Alex’s thoughts clearly. Just read this week’s reports.

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      Steve, Alex is thinking this is a 4th DC and will have limited upside. The 50dma in GDX is to be watched for overhead resistance. The ICL will come later. I think I have that right.

      • Steve Tytler
        Steve Tytler says:

        Bill that is what I thought too. However, looking at the chart of JNUG for example, it’s hard for me to believe that JNUG will go lower, in fact it’s P&F chart just flipped bullish after being bearish for a couple months. I am no cycles expert, but it would seem to me that the “ICL” might be in for JNUG. So my point is that I should have been paying more attention to my charts rather than simply waiting for Alex to post the magical letters “ICL” in his report. That’s the problem with having a very busy and demanding day job, I have limited time to watch the market and often miss great buying opps. 🙁

        • Rob
          Rob says:

          Why not take a position in GDX – no leveraged instruments? You could use the 50sma as your stop. It will put our mind at ease. If it is a new ICL, then you could buy NUGT at the 2nd DC, which is most often the most powerful DC.

        • Bill
          Bill says:

          The chart looks great, and has for several days. Alex called the low in miners a few days ago, maybe Friday. Up 16% since then. I would have gone in heavy based on the chart, BUT 4th DC kept me out.

        • Bill
          Bill says:

          You might want to try silver? USLV looks real good, seems to be starting to follow the miners now.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            A 50% retracement back up is still a full $1 on spot silver , that would be solid for USLV.

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      The other thing to watch, we have 4 gap opens in a row in JNUG. That usually ends in a slam down.

    • YS
      YS says:

      Steve, I read Alex’s report every day including the comment section. He clearly said “follow on your own risk” and didn’t mention ICL at all.

    • Evan
      Evan says:

      Hi Steve, FWIW, I’m thinking ICL is not in, this is the upside slope out of a 4th DCL, likely topping left translated, and then ICL mid June ish either heading into or out of the FED meeting. (again, take this with a HUGE grain of salt, but I don’t think the FED will be hiking at their next announcement, looking at it from a macro perspective). That’s how I’m playing it anyway.

    • Crawdaddy
      Crawdaddy says:

      HI Steve, with Alex on the beach I’d just remind you that none of the PM products have ended a daily cycle as left translated. This is the number one requirement to end an intermediate cycle regaurdless of how many daily cycles have past .I think he would advise you to keep it cool in the motor pool. Hope it helps.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I assume by now you have had time to read my reports and got this answer? I am on vacation, and you probably didn’t realize I am away on vacation when you asked. I am trying my best to keep the reports from missing a beat.

      I have covered this thought for many daily reports. You are probably clear on my thoughts by now if you went back and read them .

      If not ….read older reports, wait for the weekend report, or email me. 🙂

  10. Erik Sven
    Erik Sven says:

    I’m still all cash now. Feel like I’m missing out on all this miner/metal action. But the ICL awaits! Right??

      • Erik Sven
        Erik Sven says:

        I was thinking about it. I rode the first wave up for a nice gain, but missed this one. My last two trades got stopped out so my mindset right now is more tentative. I want (need?) my next one to be a winner.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      It does, but I was able to make a few bucks on this daily cycle already AND I’m not bored!

    • Tammie
      Tammie says:

      I’m in all cash too except for EDXC…..not had time to read all the reports and keep up with what’s going on or be in front of computer all the time like I was…….but keeping my eye on things for the ICL….:)

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      LABU could be getting ready. Oversold and bouncing off the middle BB. Last time it moved higher from here. What are you thinking?

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        I started a position. Was slightly overbought on 30-min when I posted so waited for pullback below 48. Sorry for delay – had to run back to work for a bit.

  13. Cason
    Cason says:

    I’ve closed my GDX calls. Will be closing NUGT final tranche from low 28s for tidy profit now that we hit my target. Sure, GDX could get up to the 200 day, but I’m staying frosty since this is a 4th daily cycle. If this turns out to be more powerful, can always re-enter. Gold has room to run but GDX/J are up for a rest!

  14. Hawaiifive0
    Hawaiifive0 says:

    Alex,when you have time would you advise where/when to add to UNG? I bought it at 7.64 and would like to double my position. I though perhaps a pull back to somewhere or wait and see what it does at the 200 day or let it go sideways or something like that. Not really sure how to look at adding.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I’m playing BOIL, put in an order to add at 12.85 based on spt I saw on 30-min chart. Fwiw.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Aloha – I will probably cover it in the weekend report since the markets are closed by the time I got to it.
      Its tough because NATGAS acts different at different times.

      I’ll discuss it in the weekend report.

  16. deshy
    deshy says:

    wow! not sure what just happened to NAK…but closed my eyes and bought a smidgeon. Let’s see what happens…so far so good.

  17. Kenny
    Kenny says:

    Sold entire position on NUGT from high 27s….going to wait for green light dcl from Alex. Meanwhile picked up nice gain but not willing to hold over weekend. I’m happy 🙂

        • Cason
          Cason says:

          Felt good to (finally!) nail a 4th DC trade. Miners were much stronger since DCL than Alex anticipated, esp with actual gold doing absolutely nothing!

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            ‘Miners were much stronger since DCL than Alex anticipated, ‘

            Not true CAson…look at all of my charts from older report , In everyone they show miners running higher , Gdxj to the 50sma and GDX to the 200sma/ Are they there yet? No.

            How it gets there is not important. They are not there yet either. You are wrong saying that this is stronger than I expected.
            It is as I expected, maybe stronger than you expected 🙂

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Oh man!! I knew that I was going to get it from the Dojo Master for that one!! As soon as I typed it. I’m in trouble now! 😛

            Let me re-phrase, cause what I said wasn’t really fair. Here is a better explanation – we expected 4th DCL to be pretty weak and an ICL drop to be upcoming (which would actually be the 3rd waterfall since Dec/Jan for GDX/J). However, even though gold has pretty much sucked terribly, the miners have been strong for the last 5 days. So, a trade here was actually pretty good when it could have sucked. Hmmm…or maybe it is a testament to my rising skill since joining the CF community? Cause in the past I would have bought the top today and eventually lost. 😛

            As you stated above, you have had consistent targets in your reports. Which weren’t too far off from the ones that I had posted either. So that was definitely accurate. And it was good that you warranted caution, b/c we could drop next week and huge leveraged plays at the wrong time could really end badly (we’ll know for sure in a few weeks).

            You know that I am a fan, brother. Been here since the first day of premium service. Thanks for keeping it real! But I do need a “nice trade” comment!

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            Hey, more good news I wanted to share. Btw the NUGT trade and the JDST a few weeks ago, I’m not that far off from my account balance high back in Febuary. That first GDXJ collapse caught us all off guard. But since then am now back in a balance to have my account balance back equal to the high BEFORE we hit the upcoming ICL. So, if we nail that one also…..!! Very exciting time now that trades are popping back up on the radar. Thanks for keeping it real. This could be my best trading year ever if this next cycle takes off!

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Its all good, I just know that I have chart after chart after chart from April & May showing exactly what I expected.. I even said that the BIG SURGE day in GDXJ in the 3rd daily cycle to the 50sma could repeat and fool bulls into buying late.

            So to say this was more than I expected? I’m on vacation and I still took a JNUG trade , because that low became obvious, and my targets were even higher than where we are now.

            I just thought that saying “This was more than CF expected” was out right wrong 🙂
            This is actually playing out Exactly as I thought that it could.

            The weekend report will cover this more. Have a great weekend!

  18. Brian
    Brian says:

    I sold half my NUGT position from $28… I think there is some more upside but I want to start building a DUST position

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      It might consolidate first? Gold has another $20-30 to catch up, miners could mark time like 3rd daily cycle, which is frustrating for DUST. I’m likely to wait until we get deeper time wise . Just my 2 cents from recent action

  19. Glenfidd
    Glenfidd says:

    Quick question: for the swing in gold, does it need to close the session above 1228.70, or is intraday sufficient?
    Did we get the gold swing today?

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Great question. I thought it was close, but Alex called it a “swing” in today’s report. I pulled up the daily and it visually looks like a swing. I’m sure he’ll cover it this weekend. Miners hit my target so I sold all of my short term positions already to reduce risk.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      It does not need to close above it, but it should close above the 10sma to add confidence to the move. Miners mving so swiftly off of the lows, it adds conviction too.

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