Friday May 5th

Lets get right to the report…

SPX – We see a reversal day again and again this looks like an inverse H&S and a cup & handle. I feel like it may be running out of time to POP & Run now, since it is getting late in the daily cycle and also the search for an ICL will come too. I will discuss this more in the weekend report.

XLF  – The XLF actually tried to break above that 50sma Thursday

WTIC – Oil is definitely back to my original expectations. It dropped almost 5% Thursday. I would not try to catch this bottom, Oil can drop under $42.

XLE –  XLE had that fake break out in April and then dropped back inside of this down trending channel.  Energy stocks looked ready to break out, but lacked follow through. They remain in a downtrend, but they are going to be a great buy in the future.  I am not in energy stocks at this time expect for a small position in GEVO . This is back to the down trend and Oil is weak.

NATGAS – I’ve been wanting to go Long Natgas, and I’ve also been wondering if it would just drop & tag that 50sma. The 50sma seems to be rising up to price. NATGAS is just consolidating sideways so far.  I did not go long Thursday, I was away from my computer.

BOIL & UGAZ  both filled their gaps and reversed off of the 50sma. I like the look of the set up, but so many set ups and bullish looking trades have lacked follow through that I am still hesitant to enter the trade until I see more strength.  If anyone entered this trade,  use a loose stop below the 50sma, because we see that price DID fall below the 50sma briefly in the past.

GOLD – Gold broke below the trend line and is still seeking out the DCL.  The drop measures roughly the same as the prior one and should put in a swing low soon.  I noticed that it took a while to get going out of a few of the other lows ( Green arrows), and this daily cycle may top soon after forming a low.  This could prove to be too weak to play long successfully.

SILVER – And Silver is just selling off , dropping like a rock. THIS looks so much like the sell off into an ICL , and SILVER is actually going to hit the Dec lows if we get 2 or 3 more days of selling.

GDX –  GDX broke below the March lows yesterday. Was that a bear flag consolidation at a Mid Point all week, or is this a quick false drop? Only time will tell. This also could be an abandoned baby if GDX gaps open Higher Friday. I am still not recommending a trade at this point.

GDXJ –  Ditto, and GDXJ is near the Dec lows  (ICL).

NG #3 –  As a side point, I noticed that a few Miners like NG were holding up during the selling Thursday. Nova Gold barley dropped and it seemed to hold up well , but then I realized that they are already back down to their Dec lows ( ICL).  🙁

I think that everyone can see now why when I received emails telling me that they were buying all the way down and would be happy later, I tried to encourage patience. There was no need to rush in and buy 2 weeks ago, just look at the charts of Silver and GDXJ to see what has happened in 2 weeks.

I decided that I didn’t want to post any new ‘trade ideas’ on Friday.  We have the Jobs report Friday, The French Elections Sunday, and the markets have been very choppy and volatile .  Many trades under these conditions are breaking out for a day or two, and then falling back down. Commodities set up and did well for a few days, and are now under selling pressure again. It is difficult to find follow through ( Except for the tech sector.  The TTWO trade is fine, but earnings has even crushed a few tech stocks).  Let’s see what Friday and the french election throw our way, and allow the dust to settle down a bit.  I will have more in the weekend report.Enjoy your Friday trading.

~ALEX

Am I still invested?  I have made some money on recent trades, and been stopped out or simply sold because a set up was no longer acting with follow through.  What am I holding? I am currently about 70% CASH, and my current positions are  EDXC, FUEL, GEVO, MACK, NAK, NWGFF.   NAK & FUEL are my biggest holding,   EDXC & NWGFF are smaller (money wise) ‘buy & hold’ from months ago in a new industry that could pay off in the future.  Say I bought 60,000 shares at 3 cents. That only cost $1,800, but if it ever got to $1, it would be $60,000.00.   SO EDXC is an investment in a newer sector that has growing sales and decent prospects.  I am just holding that stock do or die.

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MACK – I’m holding MACK in a base and recently it is not selling back off.  As it pushed at the recent highs here, I am still hoping for a break out from this set up.

NAK – I bought NAK under the 200sma in March and added on a tag of the 200sma.  NAK tagged the 200sma yesterday and bounced recovering the 50sma.  This chart was actually another buy opportunity. They were due for their EPA deadline, and last night I saw NAK up near $2 as they finally get close to ironing out a deal.  Congratulations to the patient ones.

So far todays open  will put a huge gap on NAK that may or may not close over time, I can see it going either way. They received an extension in time and the gap could close during that extention time, and resume higher when the details are released.  I can also just see a “Gap & GO” move that gaps open and continues higher as former buyers that sold it re purchase their shares  ( Possible funds too)

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FUEL –  This older charts show what I like about FUEL

FUEL has been holding the 10sma in uptrends