5-8-17 Short And Sweet
Todays report will be short and sweet, there is no need to cover ‘everything’ after the weekend report, but it does still include over 20 charts to cover a number of ideas, some new and others that we have discussed in prior reports.
WTIC – An unconfirmed swing low is in place, but the safer play is to see if it can get above that 10sma.
XLE – This looks good, and some of the Energy stocks are starting to shape up too. We did have a fake break out a month ago, so caution is warranted. For those that feel the need to trade the Energy sector early….Stay Frosty! Use the lows as your stop just in case this low is not THE low.
AREX & NOG look very good! Others seem to need time to prove themselves. Nog released earnings Monday a.m. & I wish I saw it on Monday. I want to buy NOG right now, it wants to break that downtrend. In Nov 2016 NOG ran up well over 100% from roughly $1.50 to $4.
NATGAS Friday -Hoping for follow through and a break out.
NATGAS MONDAY – No break out, but no real change here either, except for he fact that it is dropping on heavy volume & threatens to take out the recent lows. If it does that, the DCL is ahead and not in place. My stop is that lower line.
GOLD – Gravestone Doji #2 showed up. No swing low yet though, but we are due .
GDX – Unconfirmed swing low in the Miners and they usually lead the way higher – please read the chart. Bottoms in GDX can be a process – see the boxes.
TRX found some Gold and got rewarded. This could break out here at the start of a 4th daily cycle, and then during the ICL simply back test, but it is hard to know for sure. I look at EGO & AEM when they had a POP after good earnings, and they may hold up better as proven Miners when Gold drops to an ICL, but stops are still needed.
NAK #1 – Look at NAK in Nov 2016. It gapped open, dropped to the 10sma, and never looked back. That gap didn’t fill. I see that here again.
NAK #2 – Please read the chart. Funds were buying NAK, and then likely sold out on the way down. Are they interested again with the new EPA set up?
VSTM & CGIX have been mentioned here in the past – VSTM tried to break out and it does have the volume to do so. It has had a nice cup consolidation, and I like it as a fairly low risk buy here. This may follow through this week.
URRE (And some other Uranium stocks) look to be breaking higher. URRE re-gained the 200sma and is worth a buy here with a stop below recent lows or a tight one below the 200sma.
IPI – Last week one of our readers ( Thanks Chuck) reminded me that the IPI consolidation was worth watching. I didnt read my email until Sunday and Monday had further follow through. It goes on my watch list for a ‘buy the dip’ candidate, but these break outs can just keep running. .
GEVO _ I bought this and own it , because I like this base and the volume pops within it. They had earnings after the bell on Monday and the stock ran up 6% by 6 p.m. It has since dropped, but that is way better than watching it drop in the post market. Let’s see what happens Tuesday.
FUEL – Earnings come out on Tuesday after the close, and this dropped on Monday , but so far it holds above the 20sma and the trend line. I will have to put my stop loosely below the trend line, I just hope that I am not the victim of a shake out. Their last earnings a quarter ago is what sent them running higher.
TSEM – Semis have sold off, but I keep my eyes on a number of interesting Tech stocks ( TSEM, CY, AMD, FNSR, TWTR, etc) . TSEM blasted higher on volume after a 2 month sell off. All of the losses are regained. Earnings season is a boom or bust event this year.
SSYS at $23+ – On April 18 I was pointing out 3-D Printer stocks. This is an awesome base and I like it along with the other 3-D set ups ( DDD, VJET, XONE). Look at that upside potential.
SSYS at $25+- April 26th – break out and handle = remains Bullish.
SSYS MAY 8 $27+ – Follow through and that chart above shows a huge upside potential.
So we go to other 3-D Printer stocks that I mentioned…
DDD – DDD broke out too, and Monday alone it was up about 12%. It was $15 recently and threatening to break out, but now it has and is at $19. This sector looks ready to run after a dismal year or two.
XONE – April 26th I showed how XONE is breaking out of a nice base. It broke from a wedge at $10.
XONE – It then went sideways and now is looking ready to really move, with 1 problem…Earnings are set to be released on MAY 10th. THIS IS ON MY WATCH LIST. If May 10 is bullish, This is a break out from a solid base in a sector that is heating up. A run to $16 is not out of the question, to start things off.
SO there are plenty of possible trade set ups in various sectors now, find a trade or two if you want, but don’t be overwhelmed by how many there are. Also know that some have greater risks and please use stops. DO NOT be willing to ride stocks down if they go against you. We have an ICL in Precious Metals coming up and that will be the best buying opportunity of the year. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!!
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Uranium stocks and the URA finally look to be setting up for low risk entries. URRE in the report regained the 200sma, and UEC has too. Many are stopped right at their 10sma and could break above those today or tomorrow. DNN, URG, UUUU, etc
NOTE: Those looking for the strongest one, USEG has been one of the strongest of this sector. It did not break down at all during URAs sell off. Also the one that RAY has been mentioning Canadian ticker NXG – in the U.S. it is NXGEF has not been breaking down either.
NXGEF has semi light volume, but the set up is very good. Last November is tripled!
hi Alex
are u sure about USEG ?
USEG is not uranium but oil and gas company
I just double checked – it is oil & gas. I had it in my Uranium watch list for the past year. I’m not sure how that happened…thanks.
So let me say this then…..USEG has done very well as an OIL & GAS company despite Oils sell off and all of the Energy stocks being taken down 🙂 ( Light volume though)
#BrainOnVaca 😉
Maybe from vacation last year…I’ve had that in my Uranium list for a year! Yikes
dang .. TGD looks good……
Yes, I mentioned the weekly chart in the comments maybe a week ago, but hard to buy with the current cycle timing. TRX may be bottomed since they found 1 million oz, it adds $243 million to their bottom line.
IF FUNDS start entering positions, I would think that the next drop into an ICL could be mild , since they are the buy the dip in big numbers crew. I may mention something about this in the next weekend report, but basically what I am saying is that TRX could run faster in this 4th daily cycle than normal, and pull back less in the icl sell off. JUST AN IDEA, ICL sell offs get pretty rough and can throw out the good with the bad for awhile.
otay butwheat … TRX it is …. ;o)
Keep it relatively small 🙂 – I’m prob wrong, it may be an oil & gas stock too haha
well … ive been in/out of this one and watching this pattern ….. teehee
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xjMbkvEE/
Yes, last time it ran very well and we caught that here.
I remember that it didn’t start running right at the May ICL and many were nervous about it under performing, telling me that their Mines were under attack , etc in Africa. They resolved that issue last spring, and it was just consolidating former gains and then it just rocketed higher.
I just dont know if we’ll see that after the ICL this time or at least get a good run now on the good drilling news. I am in it.
giggle …annnnnnnd what about sweek nick NAK pattywack…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fKnAj1Jf/
You should never fall in love with a stock, but I have fallen in love with NAK a few times. 🙂
It almost looks like you should slide it over to alighn the last POP, but that may not fit as well either?
lol….
#MariasVacaFund 😉
Did you see NAK chart #2 i n the report today? So far, so good.
only skimmed QUICK… at work… was off yesterday family sick day.. .;o)
hopefully on lunch i can read..
ive been in out this one 4evvvv errrr …. cue sandlot clip ;o)
when did u add that last line? lol i did not see it…
but .. i was playing around with it and found this …. fits pretty damn good if i do say so myself ;o)
*I often can slide the candles one way or the other to find the BEST fit ….
*meow
https://www.tradingview.com/x/iOaWLQ2P/
What is the time period of the overlay..April-May 2016??
Looks like October to Dec to me , buddy. 🙂
hmmm UGAZ is lookn mighty interesting…. perhaps a drop & reversal this week???
wouldnt that be cool ….
hmmmmm
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QkV8VlrP/
Yes, I was looking at the same thing. If we get a small gap down tomorrow and then Thursday has a large engulfing candle I might be peeing my pants as the pattern would hold. After the initial rip, there should be a bit of a retest. Nice catch, Maria. Hope it works out.
You’ll like this better
( Refresh)
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e99003c24a7778d78ed07c37dbdd36f7e1f6d296dd0294b476d6280f3fa1f249.jpg
oh my ….. Yes please Daddy … ;o)
*mommy may have jumped the gun a bit ….
*smirk
Tomorrow should be the ‘tell’. If UNG does not gap down at the bell, your chart could be in play, ALex. 🙂
Is the sand white?
The sand here is white, and as soft as baby powder.
Refresh
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/15c02886502a69a14115c4c1e086b159ca03fcdabb3dfbdf57e3bc6916ca9949.jpg
NO TAUNTING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I wasn’t….That’s why I didn’t mention that rum cocktails are allowed on the beach.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c9810e83e18370aef9a48462791ba29d6ee1838bb99f03d6bb4bd8cfee633d1c.png
LET’S ALL GO CRASH HIS PARTY……………….. LMAO
Awesome. Looks like paradise.
Love that soft white sand! Have you ever been up on the Emerald coast by the National Seashore or Navarre Beach? Softest fine sand, some “squeeks” as you walk, sand so white you can’t do without sunglasses and the water is a gorgeous mint green color. Keep it in mind for next time.
ok 🙂
#NoPeeingAllowed
#TMI
meow
ORR this one looks pretty good too … (fib wise)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qYo4bcWS/
I should say that is a 3 day chart ….
It must be nice to always be right! LOL
LOL
I KNEW you would show up! LOL…whenever I am a bit snarky/naughty/mischievous…I know you will give me support….thanks Maria. Sorry CF.
FriskyNancy ;o)
giggle ….
I could never keep up with you! LO… but you inspire me to think stuff up in my head even if I don’t post. You are welcome, CF.
Happy to be of service ……………. ;o)
Smirk
Meow
I’m staying on the beach…you cant hurt me today
lol…
#SUNSCREEN!!
LOL- yeah , I broke my streak of being right 2x in a row
Summer is coming back with a vengeance in FL for the next several days…hope you are near a pool or beach!
*you thought you were wrong Once ………………………. then you realised you were right ..
Boy, for someone that took off a family ‘sick’ day yesterday, you surely aren’t trying to make it up to your boss by giving a little extra today 🙂
#Professionalslacker
….. I’m multitasking …. ;o)
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/18eefae7c00cf924645e6c37ff810f2872c847e793d5e11b9d6f3ee1aa2a6492.png
There we go….queen of the illustrations is back!
New Low on Gold this morning. We will not have a swing low yet.
I know seems a bit contrary but with how bullish GOLD has been , how stretched the cycle is , and how well the miners have held up, I am seeing an ABCDE triangle pattern. On DUST daily it is well formed. I doubt many think DUST will get to $24 area but with everyone positioning themselves for the ICL we are get close to potential short squeeze territory and getting everyone bullish again only to really reverse this to the downside. Just thinking it out. Still long with NUGT from low $28.
Yeah, I’ve lost the cycle count now. Run out of toes now to count it on…
I’m with Brian, but if GDX undercuts last week’s low, I’m out. I’ll take my single lump and wait for the ICL setup. Not gonna force this one.
Long here is risky no doubt.
NAK – Back to back 16% days?
We were buyers near $1 at the 200sma, and it is now a 100% gainer. Congrats to any who held on or even added at $1.1o, $1.25, even $1.35
LMAT is good looking. Watching it for a while and up again today.
I only allow my self to own one or two Bio Pharma stocks at one time, and I currently own VSTM.
LMAT does look decent though, but it may have fulfilled the target for the inverse H&S and may be consolidating those gains at this point. It doesn’t mean that it wont extend and keep running, but that was a nice run March through April..it could need a rest.
ONCE popping on good earning I guess? They were do out today.
Looks good
Didn’t notice the H&S, thanks. That bamboo charcoal company is lookin’ hot today though! TANH
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/10282d04ca29c8f453e534dfd4c97d4e2025291bee93cd43729fc9c0a4201c1f.jpg Weekly looks good too! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d00fdfae5de887840cb4bfe72b66b266d30c955b2ca2d17d4f7951b5436dd77b.jpg
VIX 9.7 – WOW
Multi year low…VIX
Yeah , like 25 yrs I think
I saw 9.39 back in 06 or 07. Ridiculous either way
Yeah, 1/2 yr from the market top & a yr before the crash
I have NUGT as a buy at $28.50 for a short term trade. I AM NOT RECOMMENDING THIS…
– but it broke from a down trend and could start higher
– GDX GDXJ not breaking lows while Gold sells off to new lows is also a positive
– And a few other reasons seem to indicate lows might be in for miners for a 4th daily cycle
Thanks CF. I hope you are enjoying the sun in Florida!
GDX just pierced the upper trend line on the falling channel
VRX – Gap up and run above the 50 day ma. Lots of room to run as the 200 day at $19.41.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/38f89bba999f6c4379b841490de1c8aace8a1799c1030b7663e06818a4bb1b2e.png
Here’s a better chart showing the move today
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/00d0472814c9dfaab4749278052e2c718fd6058b4d674086b32ab38791bd63a8.png
NOTE: MACK EARNINGS PRE_MARKET TOMORROW.
I’m going to hold through and take my chances like I did with GEVO.
Gevo is quite lack luster and if it doesnt get back over the 50sma soon ( days) , I may cut it loose to free up some funds.
Same.
Look at a 3 month chart of GLD & SLV and compare it to charts of GDX & GDXJ .
Big difference today and likely showing that the lows are in for miners.
GDX:GLD
Feels early to me. Gold stoch isn’t oversold yet, GDX TSI crossing over negative. Both weekly charts.
Well, my comment was based on daily charts. If one is gauging a dcl, it is best to use daily charts. The weekly charts ( looking for oversold stochastics, TSI, etc) won’t help you at a dcl really, though it may help with ICLs.
So the weekly chart isnt a good timing tool for dcl’, but if “it feels early’ on a weekly chart, yes, probably too early for an ICL.
I’m not encouraging trading this DCL anyway, so it doesn’t really matter. I simply wanted people to see the divergence.
Timing wise, for a DCL gold is actually “late” and per your JDST trade, miners got crushed recently. Check out the Feb and Apr waterfalls on GDXJ. Twins! Not early.
You are right, GOLD is on day 41 today, very extended. But if this is the 4th DCL it might not be worth trading.
True, but too late, already in! GDX us doing alright here. Actual gold keeps undercutting, which is frustrating. I was looking for 12-15% on NUGT. 1-2 solid days and I’m out. Not gonna get greedy on 4th D.C. Just gonna book profit and get ready for next trade. Once I sell that position I’ll be really high in cash, so ready for ICL time!
Momentum indicators look different for sure.
Yes, gold is back to shiny pet rock/ancient relic status and is uniformly hated and despised. However, miners do seem to be holding up. I was just thinking the same as what you were. Thanks for posting an update today. Now, back to vacation!
ohhh SNAP
nice pattern right there ….. I’ll take it … ;o)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Oc0dwc6d/
ps. that’s taken from 9/15 …. roberto clemente
That looked like dust over gdxj ( Prob not but I have that GDXJ pattern bumping off of the 50sma etched in my head after shorting it at the 50sma repeatedly )
giggle .. yes …
so .. bull or bear ………………..
https://www.tradingview.com/x/d1Q7w8EH/
One really has to question the bull thesis at this juncture. ICL WILL still be a good trade either way. Time will tell.
bear … ??? that low?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8WMAerlP/
OAS – totally schizophrenic today!!!
Bearish engulfing. Not such a relaxing “oasis”!
SIG, bought URRE just now. Hope I don’t ruin it for you!!
I was gonna kinda sit on my hands for a few days but CF had so many ideas that I couldn’t help myself. And I’m really getting interested in energy!
I got sucked into URA today also. Good luck!
It should be time. Ken’ s been counting waves on these things forever.
I have a buy
AREX – Nice follow through
NOG _ Not
MYOS looking great on the daily, and surge of vol last 5 min
AUMN – Bucking the trend.
NAK – Welcome Back!
Heading out now. Been hanging out poolside most of today – Time to hit the beach.
FUEL & MACK earnings next, if anyone owns them. Fuels chart hints at possible trouble? Maybe not, but It didnt CLOSE below the 10sma on that first run up Feb & March. Now it regained and dropped below again. A sign of trouble & possibly insider trading? I cant tell, I’m holding through earnings. The last earnings announce is what ramped it up in the spring. My NAK gains will offset a gap down and I’ll decide tomorrow.
Have a good evening!
TRX. Oh well. At least they still have their 1M oz! 1 day wonder!
got some JNUG and TAHO. (holding some AG from last week, in the red)
Just an observation… if you take a look at DUST on 2-2-17 there was a gap down from $29.97 to $29.11.. then on 4-25-17 there was a gap up from just about $29.11 to almost $29.97.. weird. I think DUST gets back to the gap before it really starts into the ICL. That’s my plan anyways.
As would I. But I’m also letting timing (cycle) play part of this as well as resistance on gold. That is assuming gold ever rises this cycle.
OREX looking great as well – took a half position at 3.50
Miners green in AH…only a very small amount, but green is a nice color after looking at red all day. 🙂
Don’t call it a comeback…
I won’t….
I been here for years.
I couldn’t help it. Been holding that in all day…
Bought WKHS yesterday at $3.13. Down 6.5%. I hope this retrace level holds. But also read this: https://seekingalpha.com/article/3968289-workhorse-group-paid-stock-promotion-financing-partner-expelled-finra-insurmountable So now not sure what I think. Ugh. Thoughts??
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/28cb0a35343c4cd2620ff37de58808255bdc4ae179893b4b2d1edcb22a59f98d.jpg
Trump Fires Comey, What now?
Buy Gold! (j/k)
No, buy NUGT lol
He could go work for Commodity Exchange, Inc. Rename it UP one letter: “The COMEY.”
Need over 1228 tomorrow to put in a swing. 4 day BB crash on GOLD daily. This should be it for DCL. Let’s Go!
API reports big draw tonight. Oil Inventory – Government data 10:30 tomorrow morning.
WEDNESDAY s Report has been released