WEEKEND REVIEW

Let’s review what the markets have been doing and what that can mean for this weeks trading.

 

I have repeatedly said that the condition of the financials has concerned me when viewing the markets.  Weakness there could bleed over into the general market.

 

XLF – Friday the XLF broke to a new low, taking out the last DCL. I now expect the financials to sell off over time.

XLF WEEKLY – The weekly chart shows the weakness too.

 

SPX – I think that the markets are in danger of rolling over here and seeking out their ICL too.  SPX lost the 50sma and the MACD is weak.

 

The NASDAQ has been very strong, but it also shows weakness here.

NASDAQ WEEKLY – This was interesting, the NAZ broke out from a bearish sedge, but is now threatening to re-enter it.

 

WTIC –  Oil has been moving higher daily and looks bullish, but oddly some of the Energy stocks have dropped more than expected.  I’m not sure if the Energy stocks are following the general markets or just pulling back here ahead of oil.

 

XLE – Here is the weekly chart of the XLE, and it broke down after breaking above the  10 weekly MA last week. Now I’m watching the recent lows a 67.86.  A break of that number is bearish .

XLE WEEKLY CLOSE UP- Here we can see that the 50 weekly MA held down price 3 weeks in a row.

 

OAS –  So some of the Oil/Energy stocks that broke out from a down trend and broke above the 50sma, have broken down again. OAS, WPX, SWN for example. LPI & MRO and a few others are threatening to deliver the same price action. I am not in Energy stocks, but I was looking to buy the pullback. I am waiting , because this is abnormal action in my opinion.

NATGAS  – NATGAS dipped down and then reversed higher, putting a swing low in place. I didn’t buy it, but so far NATGAS has been one of my most reliable trades taken recently. I may buy a move back into the price channel & 10sma.

 

 

USD – I wanted to cover the USD & PRECIOUS METALS together, since they do seem to move inversely.  Did the USD peak on day 10 and will now keep selling off into a low? It may have, since it lost the 10sma.  If price cant regain the 10sma, the USD can drop for several days ( And Gold could run).  If it recovers, we could get this move shown by the purple arrows. I’m watching for the USD to try to close above the 100.60 area.  This type of USD move would likely send Gold into a dcl.

USD WKLY – Please read the chart.  It kind of looks like the USD will drop to finish this pattern, and I would imagine that Gold would continue higher if that happened.  We’ll discuss the precious metals next.

 

GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

 

Please read Wednesday , Thursday, Fridays report if you need reminders in this sector. Things are not acting normally in this area and I have covered almost every scenario that I can imagine in recent reports.   It is still very mixed, and can be a tad confusing, so I have to report this sector in 2 different ways.  One is with a cautious approach expecting a drop into an ICL in May or June for Gold, the other view is as one seeing bullish set ups and bullish short term trade opportunities while Gold continues higher. You will again see why this sector gives Mixed signals.  I’m viewing it like that old game of ‘musical chairs’ where you are free to move about and things remain bullish looking, until the music stops.  So I am still looking at the short term bullish set ups in this sector,  but still cautiously since Gold could top at anytime.  Don’t let this confuse you,  short term bullishness does not mean that we wont get a drop into a dcl in the near future.

 

 

GOLD –  I posted this in Fridays report, it just looks like a bullish Cup & Handle.   The thinking has also been that GOLD had 2 R.T. Daily cycles, and should be strong in the 3rd one.  Miners were weak in early Feb,  so they could under perform. All of this has played out, but SOME miners look to be gaining strength now, others are dead, so we have a mixed bag of tricks here.

 

 

GOLD WEEKLY – Threatening to break out from a long term major trend line, this would be quite bullish.  So Gold itself here looks bullish. If Gold breaks out & runs, the ICL would likely be a future back test of this trend line in May ( or June?). The RSI & MACD for GOLD are flat out bullish here.

 

GOLDS COT  shows that smart money shorts are increasing, but it is not overly bearish and Gold isn’t overly shorted by Smart money like the summer of 2016. Keep that in mind, because there is more in the precious metals that adds to the confusion or mixed signals.

GDX : GOLD –  Just a noteworthy look at GDX: GOLD and we see that it did dip a bit after Friday trading.

 

SILVER – So I have been saying how Bullish Silver looks, and this weekly chart looks very bullish to me.  Is that an Inverse H&S with a target above 21?  At the same time, quite a few junior silver stocks are lack luster at this point, near Dec 2016 lows.  This usually isn’t what we see, when the Metals are making a bullish run, Miners usually lead.  Next comes another ‘Mixed signals’ part…

 

The COT for Silver is showing that  SMART MONEY is now holding record short positions in silver.  They are more short Silver now than they have been in years. SO is this saying that Silver will drop sharply?  It would seem so.

I was just comparing Silvers above high COT in March to the Silvers PEAK in Early March with what we see now. The COT is more bearish now, but I DO NOT use the COT as a timing tool, because I have seen short positions climb and climb along with price in Gold in the past,  but it is good to take note of this situation.

 I will say this:  Silver stocks like  AG, CDE, SSRI, PAAS do look bullish in a weekly chart.

 

GDX WEEKLY – There is nothing that I can say about this chart that makes it look bearish.  I would usually buy a close above the 10 MA on a weekly chart with MACD divergence in a heart beat. Some miners look bullish and others looked bearish, others have still started  to move higher.  The GDX WKLY chart  looks quite bullish.

ABX WKLY –  This also looks quite Bullish. It ran $14 to $20 + from Dec to Feb, and is back at $19.83.

GDXJ DAILY FRIDAY- GDXJ sold off on Friday on increased volume and the RSI dropped slightly under the 50% mark.  This looks less bullish that GDX.  I kept some short GDXJ position on, because GDXJ is again struggling at the 50sma.

There have been some negative reports about GDXJs struggles, and they could be part of the problem here  ( Funds may be slowly leaving GDXJ). That being the case, I’ve still seen that some of the Junior Miners have been a mixed bag of weakness and improvement.  Whatever the case, GDXJ itself looks ready to break up or break down This week.  Let’s look at some individual Juniors.

 

A FEW INDIVIDUAL MINERS:

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SBGL –  SO I have been saying that some Miners do look to be improving, and could even be bought for a quick trade.  SBGL is one of them. Higher highs and higher lows out of the Dec 2016 lows. Though SBGL ‘peaked’ in early February, it has now broken above those highs and seems to be heading to the 200sma.  Others are doing this too, as GOLD remained strong in its 3rd daily cycle.

 

TRX – TRX actually peaked in Jan, double topped in Feb, and looked weak after that. Take a look now and it actually looks set up to break & run higher. It jumped 7% Friday as it pushed over the 50sma.  If Gold keeps running for a bit longer,  TRX may too. This could even be bought for a quick run to the highs ( 200sma?).  I view the timing as higher risk, so I am cautious at this time.

 

Are all Miners just taking off now??

 

NG –  Nova Gold was a great performer in Dec to February, but it sold off Friday with our GDXJ and lacks strength in the MACD & RSI.  This looks like a H&S and looks to be breaking down.  It is not alone…

GORO was also strong in December to February, but it sold off Friday with our GDXJ.  GORO is at the DEC lows.

CDE from Fridays report – CDE looks to be gaining traction, but is also basically at NOV & DEC lows.  My point was that if anyone is feeling like they are missing some great moves, the whole sector is not acting that way.  We still can see that some Miners are weak and lingering at lows, while others are showing signs of strength.

 

CONCLUSION:   A MIXED BAG ACROSS THE BOARD.

SO when it comes to Energy stocks, we need to see if they are selling off and possibly just following the general market as it has begun to sell off.   When it comes to the Precious Metals Sector,  there continues to be a mixed situation there, with Bullish set ups and not so bullish miners. What we do see right now is that GOLD had 2 right translated daily cycles in Dec – March and now the 3rd daily cycle is showing follow through strength.  Gold could target $1300 or even more before finally pulling back  ( See Wed, Thurs, Fri reports for more).

This GOLD chart was in Fridays report and the target could be $1350 if it breaks out and does an A-B-C-D type move. Notice that Golds lows from DEC 2015 ran higher into the spring, went sideways for a period of time, and put in a stealth ICL in May, and then ran higher again.   It really is a bit similar to what we see now.  A stealth ICL in May again?

 MINERS –  Some are healthy looking and still others are weak, as shown in GORO and NG . I said in a report last week  ( using AUY, AG, BTG, CDE, etc  as examples), that some set ups look bullish and it is a personal decision that some  might be willing to take a trade in a miner or too.  I personally would just trade a couple of somewhat small positions, and only hold for a short period of time, and USE A STOP since we do expect a pull back into an ICL in May ( or June?).  When Golds daily cycle tops, I believe these trades here will top too.   Patience may also be best for some as we wait for this to play out.

 

 May this review serve us with many reminders going forward, and we will just have to see what the next week brings for the General Markets, Oil, and Precious metals.  It is very odd to be pointing out bullish set ups in some Miners, yet also holding a short position in GDXJ and expecting an ICL in a month or so.  Things are different for short term traders than longer term traders waiting for lows.  I’m hoping that this week may clarify things in this area. Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

 

 

~ ALEX

 

 

I will not have time to proof read this long report, please ignore any typos  🙂

TRADERS

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GDXJ was ready to break out or break down very very soon ( this week) in the chart in the report above, so if it breaks out higher like GDX did,  maybe following Gold a bit higher, some of the juniors may become a nice trade too.

 

BTG-   looks healthy and possibly ready to move higher if Gold does. It Ran up in Dec to Feb and has held up from selling off too deeply.  I could see this running quickly to Feb highs if it broke out above the blue line, so it could be taken as a short term scalp trade.  When an ICL is due for GOLD though,  I believe that all Miners will drop, so this would be a fast trade.  A stop below the recent lows would be fine.  If so, what could the bigger picture look like?

BTG WEEKLY BIG PIC –  Look at the 50 weekly MA.   Price hit there recently as support.  A quick run higher to Feb highs and then a drop as Gold finds an ICL might just finish the current pattern.

AUY LOOKS BULLISH – This was the daily chart that I put into Fridays report. It was at $3.02 & was breaking above the 50sma

 

AUY WEEKLY _  I really like this chart now too, after it double bottomed at the Dec lows.  AUY may make a quick run before Gold tops too.