THIS IS FABULOUS!

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As mentioned in Tuesday mornings report, the Markets have been absolutely fabulous lately ( If you needed to catch up on some rest that is). Boring action in almost every sector is putting traders to sleep. let’s take a look at what happened on Tuesday!

 

SPX – Here we see that the SPX,  oh wait,  that’s probably just a day trader as of Tuesday…

SPX –  Here we see that the SPX has basically gone sideways for 2 months. Tuesday it was held back by the 10sma again. No real change here.

 

USD –  The USD broke down sharply on Tuesday, but GOLD , SILVER, and the MINERS did not react to it. Miners were down and Gold was only up about $5.  We’ll have to see if the recent lows in the USD hold going forward, but Precious Metals didn’t really care that the USD dropped this much.  What happened in Oil? …

 

WTIC –  Oil and Energy stocks … oh wait,  we have another sleeper this week…

 

WTIC –  Oil has been holding up at the highs of the recent rally out of the lows.  It has actually moved sideways and gives the impression that it wants to tag the 10sma and continue higher, but…

XLE – Why are Energy & Oil stocks acting so weak? I am not looking for an entry in these stocks until they show some sign of strength,  even if Oil has held up well.  XLE is below the 50 & 200sma again.

NATGAS – I believe that NATGAS is dropping into a dcl, and I expected a possible tag of the 50 & 200 sma as solid support.  It has been 1 of the only really good trending trades for me in the past month.  (I’ve been out and looking for possible re-entry). 

 

GOLD – This was Mondays chart, with a price target looking like it is around the $1300 area.  Gold hit  $1297.40 as a high.

GOLD  closed at $1294.30.   Surprisingly Gold wasn’t up $20 when the USD was down drastically, this may signal that it is at a topping point.  Gold was up however, so did the Miners take off upside?  Let’s take a look at how the MINERS are doing…

oh, the Miners are sleeping too.

GDX  & GDXJ – Miners are not participating in Golds rise, please read the chart. Gold is due for a dcl, and I expect that Miners are dropping first.

GDXJ –  I drew in a possible DCL in a few days and a weak 6 day pop , and then an ICL, but this is just an estimate at this point.

What can I say?  This is about as boring as it gets. I have sifted through many sectors and many trade ideas.  Several pretty good looking trade set ups POPPED , but then stalled.   To make money, we need to buy a set up and sell the pop to lock in gains.   It is hard to know  ( at this point, anyway)  which trades will work out with follow through and which will stall, until we find a sector that is trending.   This is very boring, I know, but patience will pay off.  Times like this do lead to good trending moves over time after consolidations and bases form.  Until then, it may be best to get some rest, this has been a real sleep fest.   I am keeping my eyes peeled for some set ups that may lead to some good gains in the future, and this includes keeping an eye on the Miners.  They should be heading into an ICL in the near future, and a strong buying opportunity will develop again.  Have a great day and thanks for being here!

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~ALEX

 

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IDEAS:

You can take a look at charts of  SSYS, DDD, VJET.  They are in the same sector.  I like SSYS 2 yr weekly chart a lot.  DDD also has a nice base in a weekly chart,  so is this sector done basing out?  I have been watching a few areas in case the markets drop to an ICL and then break out & Run again.   I’d like to find bases that break out and run from the lows.

SSYS – SSYS WKLY has a great base after a deep sell off.   In this sector we also have other 3-D stocks that have been basing  ( VJET, DD, ETC).  Possible future bull runs, it seems that the selling has finished.

NAK – We got that POP in NAK and then a light volume drift slower.  This may become a series of higher highs and higher lows in time, since we have seen a small base form.  I added to my position on this dip, but I may be early if that GAP wants to fill.

 

117 replies
  1. Bill
    Bill says:

    Alex-Here is what I am looking at for Gold and JDST. Thoughts?
    The green trend line has rejected gold overnight and its dropping this morning-good for JDST.
    The %R (box) is overbought, so that should correct-good for JDST.
    The TSI is crossed and moving higher (arrow) – Looks bad for JDST.
    We are on day 26 for gold, see the black boxes, getting late in the cycle, but notice some cycles are out 29-33 days. My cycle counts may not be the same as yours, but you get the point.
    The miners (JNUG, NUGT, etc.) have not moved higher with gold, indicating that gold is ready to drop -Good for JDST. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c91c52a063b1a92ebba3e450545f7c5492c391ca02cf323ee2e60fac81029535.jpg

      • Bill
        Bill says:

        Thanks Chad, its a mixed bag right now. Based on Alex’s report above it looks like he expects lower miner prices into a DCL soon.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Miners have been out of sync with Golds 3 R,T, daily cycles. It showed weakness in Miners, it just takes ‘time’ for some things to play out.

      It has been a long wait.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Huge lower BB crash for GDXJ on the daily. Need to decide if selling some JDST or holding here for further drop into ICL?!

      I waited forever for this dang drop. I unloaded CDE only a few days ago but it was $1/share higher than now. Phew!

      • Bill
        Bill says:

        Yes, Im in JDST since $13. LABU hit the bottom trend line and reversed, but now it looks like a bear flag. I’ll stay out for now. NATGAS may be the next option.

  2. CS
    CS says:

    Alex, any thoughts on the CLF weekly chart? It looks intriguing and the risk/reward seems to favor reward given its recent selloff. I bought a small position yesterday. Thanks

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I dont like it right now, but a reversal would help.

      On the weekly I see that it just broke below the 50 ma ( on a weekly), I’d like to see a reversal

  3. nancytheartist
    nancytheartist says:

    This report was punctuated with great pictures…they made me laugh! Helped the boredom.

  4. Mark
    Mark says:

    Alex-you like/see the large cup and handle on the weekly for TNA? Looks textbook with a back test.

          • david
            david says:

            wait for it. they will run it down extremely next month… into June….. buy it then for a good ride up into summer then get out as we might test dec lows in Nov…… just my 2 cents …… just trade ICL’s . NG has been pretty good in terms of no manipulation. Everything else is tough market in my opinion…

          • YS
            YS says:

            Thanks, David. I’m very frustrated with this market. what do you think about US economy? IMO, it’s very bad. Big companys are doing layoff. Myself will be laid off this July by AIG. sad.

          • david
            david says:

            I am really sorry to hear that. I am afraid things will prop along like this for the short term but in 2018 or soon after , I think things will get bad. I follow Martin Armstrong and a few others but…. keeping interest rates this low for so long has devastated the savers. All state and municipal pension funds are virtually bankrupt…. money will flow into safety and that will be corporate bonds…. in a few years time the stock market will reach new highs… but I think it gets worse before it gets better. Sad that Trump will be like any other politicain. Good news wait for Alex’s que to buy ICL …or YCL …. be safe and just trade those and you will be fine.

          • YS
            YS says:

            Thanks, David. Right now I’m very disappointed with Trump. I was his strong supporter from the very beginning. He failed all his promises. Those bombs made me mad. I’ve never been interested in politics before. Next time I’m going to just sit home again.

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      Hourly chart for X looks like its flattening out, TSI crossing and moving higher. You could be right. I’ll keep an eye on it

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          No, I was saying that I thought we broke a trend line the other day and I was going to add to my JDST if we back tested that trend line…..we didnt

          • nancytheartist
            nancytheartist says:

            Glad you answered that… I was confused too. Are you expecting GDXJ [gold] to drop more before moving up on leg 4, prior to the drop down to the ICL?

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Gold hasn’t even really started to drop much yet, so I would expect lower price in Miners when it does. When Gold finally starts dropping, I think that the Miners will go lower still.

            Can Miners bounce tomorrow? Yes, they could. Will they? I dont know. All of the wiggles in between are pretty much unpredictable.

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            GDXJ recovered pretty good later in the day, but was a solid BB crash at first. I’d add back JDST on a bounce in miners. Gold has really held up. Need to get this show on the road – so we don’t end up like the photos above!!

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      AG finally caved. I thought it would never correct. I had incorrectly sold calls against the position way too early. I need it to come back in so I could buy back (to cover). Finally!!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I’ve been buying at the GDXJ 50SMA TAG area again, so I always try to load up in a lower risk areas like that, and then I like to sell some on the initial move & try to ride some in case there is more.

      ( I actually wanted to buy more, I thought that GDXJ could back test $37 & I would have added again, but the drop had follow through).

  13. MM
    MM says:

    The run lower in miners could have more to go. Gold is just now turning lower and is still overbought on the 14 day RSI. Below is the GLD chart posted last week. If the turn is starting now, and being led by miners, it may be early to cut the short miner position. GDX is also has room to run lower. Silver still has a massive commercial bank short position – which historically has coincided with a move lower in silver. I doubt gold can hold up if silver tips over. Just my two cents in the short term, and I am a gold bull. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bb2232d6cba0b868092c6427a9214fed66b27b31656b3b98db83b8e4cf9e0240.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0bc0f512056418afcf957d0c24de923ab24c798aba1907cf7c0ef0d27eb964a8.png

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Oil took it on the chin today ( XLE and all the energy stocks seemed to be leading the way on that one).

      UCO & USO got a little smack down, must have been the inventory report?

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Clearly we’re going to find the ICL now. That was a heckuva fakeout for the last daily cycle. Should be a good buy at some point soon?

  15. Ralph Wiederzane
    Ralph Wiederzane says:

    While I think miners could and even will go lower, maybe to the 200 week MA on GDX, I am doing a wee bit of buying here and there in my favorite miners with bigger orders below current prices hoping to get filled by the end of the week. Long term holds, as in 12-24 months.

  16. Geurt.
    Geurt. says:

    From SMT: over 12,500 contracts or 1.2+ MILL ounces of gold sold in a 1 minute dump ($1.6 BILL in net gold). That was the one foreshadowed by GLD’s ghost spike. That entire “head fake” dip was recovered in just over 2 hours. Maybe it was just someone “rushing” ahead of the planned smack down? $6 of that spike ($1280 to $1274) occurred in under 15 seconds.

  17. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    Congrats to everyone who is in JDST. I never feel comfortable being a bear so I’m just waiting for miners to bottom so I can buy the ICL.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I am so frustrated by the inability of general equity markets to grab ahold of any momentum whatsoever. JDST literally my only position up today, probably this week. I don’t like being a bear either but sometimes it’s the only way to make any dang money.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Crude stocks down 1M. Gas +1.5M. Not enough to move the needle this much. This was weird, man. But yeah, tracking your chart – thanks for sharing.

  19. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    We brought my mom to my home with hospice 2 days ago – we had her with us for 2 nights and she passed on this morning – no longer in discomfort and at peace now. It’s been a whirlwind 2 weeks and more sudden than any of us expected. Thanks to any of you that sent good thoughts my way, much appreciated. She was a wonderful mother, grandmother, and great grandmother and will be greatly missed by everyone in the family – she didn’t have a selfish bone in her body and gave to her family over and over again. I hope to be back to observing markets in the near future as I’m sure that’s what she would want me to do. 🙂

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      SOOOOO SOOORRY to hear that TAMMIE ( THX for sharing that personal message with us). She sounds awesome and you actually described her in a similar way to how I would describe my own mother, so I am really feeling sad for your loss. I can’t imagine. The comfort is that she isnt suffering now, but I’m very sorry to hear the news for you and your family.

      I have no other words, just that I’m so sorry 🙁

      • Tammie
        Tammie says:

        Thanks, Alex, much appreciated. Yes, that is all I am focusing on right now, that she is no longer in pain and no longer suffering – that was really too much to watch. Go spend time with your mom. 🙂

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Tammie, so sorry to hear this news. You have missed NOTHING good in the market and taking care of something so much more important than a few wiggles in the S&P and a few contracts sold in gold. Take your time and the folks at CF-land will be here when you are ready. Our prayers are with you.

    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      Oh Tammie, I am so sorry for your loss. Lost my Mom many years ago, but I STILL miss her… especially when I trade. I inherited a portfolio from my parents. The loss gets easier with time, but the clarity of how you recall her does not change. Love does not really diminish…in fact, my appreciation of her has increased over the years. I still thank her for all she did from time to time. Hold your family close. Hugs to you.

      • Tammie
        Tammie says:

        Thanks so much Nancy, appreciate it. I’m still kind of in shock but am glad she isn’t suffering any more – just 3 weeks ago she drove to my house for dinner so things moved very rapidly – I’m sure my appreciation of her will grow over the years as you said yours did. I’m still talking to her and I’m sure she can hear me. 🙂

      • Maria
        Maria says:

        Sorry nanc….. Its comforting to hear your thoughts and perspective on grief… Thanks for sharing…. 🙂

      • Tammie
        Tammie says:

        Thanks, Shermo, really appreciate the thoughts and prayers, it’s going to be a hard few days.

    • Maria
      Maria says:

      Oh Tam… Ive been thinking of u.. Im so so sorry…. what a wonderful tribute this is … I hope your fond memories and healthy outlook will help ease your pain during this season….

      • Tammie
        Tammie says:

        Thanks, Maria – appreciate it. My mind is still really in a whirl, happened so fast and we really thought
        we’d have her for longer. Thanks for your note 🙂

    • Johnny
      Johnny says:

      That’s so heartbreaking. I just now read this. I am so glad you had a kind and wonderful Mom. Our little family will put your family in our prayers. Stay strong.

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