Archive for month: April, 2017

Let's review what the markets have been doing and what that can mean for this weeks trading.

 

I have repeatedly said that the condition of the financials has concerned me when viewing the markets.  Weakness there could bleed over into the general market.

 

XLF - Friday the XLF broke to a new low, taking out the last DCL. I now expect the financials to sell off over time.

XLF WEEKLY - The weekly chart shows the weakness too.

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Today I want to address how, even though we can see movement within 'cycle expectations' get stretched or a bit extended, it is still just a matter of time before Markets seek their lows. I will discuss this in the Precious Metals Section of the report.

 

SPX - Though this reversal can be viewed as bullish and be bought with a stop under the lows, We still need to see a break out and follow through. 

Lat's look at the NASDAQ...

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As time moves forward, the Market big picture always become clearer, so let's see what has been happening this week, with a few added 'surprises'. I'll also add in 3 more trade ideas.

 

SPX - This is a possible inverse H&S forming now. The DCL would be the head, and whether or not you took a long trade while waiting to see how this develops ( I have had concerns based on the XLF and a few other factors) you can see that you have not missed any great move in these choppy markets.  Notice that Price is STILL the same price as day 1, the first day after the swing low!   That said,  If you want to go long based on the possible inverse H&S and place a stop under the 50sma with a little wiggle room, this is as good a place as any to do that  risk reward wise.

NYA -  I was concerned with the dropping MACD , so I still have concerns there...

XLF - One of my main concerns was the financials and bank stocks like  GS, BAC, JPM, etc. Until I see a recovery, I will still be concerned, but again, price is at a low risk reward area in some of the General Markets. I am not Long or short currently.

NASDAQ -  We Don't want to get too bullish and forget this chart from Thursdays report of the NASDAQ on Wednesday. This is still in place and that MACD has dropped further.  Markets have just been very choppy and volatile and I am still cautious on their ability to gain more upside at this point. They need to prove themselves and the Financials need to do that soon, in my opinion.

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Wednesday when the Oil inventory report was released, Oil reacted to a resistance point. Later in the day, when the Fed Minutes were released, various  markets also reacted to their resistance points.

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NYA April 4th - I've been a bit cautious about the General Markets and pointed out the  charts of the NYA & the XLF . Let's take a look ...

NYA APRIL 5th - The move higher has had weak divergence, and it was turned back again Wednesday at resistance.

XLF April 4th - For almost 2 weeks I have been pointing this out as a reason that I am not overly Bullish about the markets at this point. This needed to recover for me to feel a bit more comfortable going long.

This was the XLF on Wednesday

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I need to keep this report  SIMPLE. Best wishes to me on that one...

 

ALL EYES ON GOLD & THE USD THIS MORNING- 

The 200sma is at $1262 and that has acted as resistance in the past few days (so far)

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