April 10th – CHOP CHOP CHOP

/96 Comments/in /by

The markets remain a bit choppy, but some of the set ups that we have been discussing are beginning to play out nicely.  I have a few more trade set ups for us too, so let’s review…

.

USD –  Starting with the USD, this may pause here for a bit.  A short dip in the USD could cause a short pop in Gold & Miners.

 

WTIC – In the weekend report I used this chart and pointed out that Oils bullish break out was likely a move out of an  ICL.  ( I said that I was no longer shorting Oil as a back test that would fail.   See the weekend report if you need a refresher on the discussion about an ICL on the triple bottom low in March).

WTIC – On Monday OIL continued higher. The weekly chart for Oil is clear that this is a strong move out of the swing low already.

XLE – Some of the ENERGY stocks did not have the same follow through, but they are bullishly holding & consolidating above the 50sma.  I will be discussing a few energy stocks at the end of this report.

 

NATGAS – Slow and steady.  Very steady in this choppy market. I am still hoping for a drop to the 200 & 50sma.

 

GOLD & MINERS

 

GOLD – Choppy and still volatile, Gold continues sideways.  This MACD just wont cross down, but the RSI is starting to drift lower in this sideways chop. Day 21 and I am still expecting a drop into a DCL. but this does look bullish enough for a pop.

 

GDX –  Honestly, when I look at GDX , it looks bullish.  If not for Cycles,  I would probably be buying it, so lets discuss that right now.

 

MIXED SIGNAL –  Some Miners look bullish and others just do not.  GG has bullish divergence with this double bottom consolidation,  but the 50 & 200sma are tightly pinched together and will probably stop any upside pop again.

 

ABX – This also looks healthy, and I would probably even buy this right here if I were not thinking in terms of a daily cycle count.  GG & ABX make GDX look like it could POP.  So could it pop and still drop quickly after into a dcl?

Yes – Take a look at this…  I pointed this out last week, but it bears repeating.  Look at the consolidation & Pop last October.  It looks very similar to now. See the Magenta, blue & Green arrows.

A pop could happen in miners and that 200sma might be a POP & DROP scenario,  so maybe we should also be cautious about how heavy we are if we are shorting this. Especially leveraged, when being a bit early can sting.  I have held JDST since GDXJ tagged the 50sma, but I am not ‘Very heavy’ in that position.  It is just a trade at the end of a daily cycle.

CDE –  Interesting stuff here.  CDE was actually still below the Dec ICL lows, and NOW it decides to strengthen up?

  So nothing has really changed since the weekend report, except that the Miners are firming up and look like they could go either way in the short term.  I really like the Uranium stocks now, and bought 2 yesterday. Oil and Energy look good going forward too ( I will show some trades below after signing off).  Gold is on Day 21 and has gone sideways at the 200sma for a while now. We’ll keep an eye on things and continue to watch how things play out.  Have a great Tuesday!

,

 

~ALEX

 

 

URA ETF AND URANIUM STOCKS-  Uranium stocks ran very swiftly from Nov through Feb.  I posted this in the comments section Monday morning and I bought URRE & UUUU.  ALL of the Uranium stocks look bullish right now, so let’s look at a few…

UUUU– Breaking above the 50sma with increasing volume.  This has turned into a 3 month consolidation of the last run higher.  Please check out a 1 year chart on all of these if you are interested.

 

URRE – Long base after that last burst higher, and it looks to possibly be ready to run again. IT is not too late to buy these.  If this runs to $4 over time ( Jan highs),  aren’t 100% gains good enough  🙂

CCJ – Ditto –  See also USEG, UEC, DNN, URG.

 

FCEL WEEKLY  – I bought this double bottom low when I saw  PLUG, BLDP, etc taking off.  It has gone higher every day since I bought it,  but it could even continue to move higher with this weekly set up.

FCEL DAILY – At this point however,  now the daily  MIGHT be getting a bit extended, so one could buy a dip or take a partial position and add later.

 

OAS from March 30 –  I love this base for longer term investing

OAS –  After the initial burst high, this is moving sideways along the trend line & above the 50sma. This was ( is) a buy.

PGH – This double bottom looks solid with bullish divergence. I think that this could run right to the 200sma, and thats a good %-Gainer.

BBG – This has not even popped yet, but you can see the energy building up, can’t  you?

 

April 4th –  I had just sold my SWN for a profit at the 50sma and wanted to re-enter on a dip & suddenly it just POPPED right through the 50sma.  Did I miss re-entry completely? I thought that I did…

 

SWN is actually back where I sold it  🙂  This is a buy.

Yep – I sold my NAK and look at it Monday.  Up 9+%and it still looks like a nice base.  I just got bored and impatient, but that doesn’t mean that I wont re-enter.

,

REMINDERS

.

PIR – From the weekend report,  I like this set up.

Monday it popped and came back down.  I still like it.

Follow up AKS – I mentioned that I liked this, but the Gap was a small concern.  Monday  AKS came right back down to the 200sam again.  It just may want to fill that gap, so this one is on my watch-list, but I’m not entering it here yet.

NL – Also from the weekend report. This is a break out and an inverse H&S. How did it do Monday?

NL – A large volume POP with a gap. The BUY was the break of the trend line, so if I had entered there Friday when I was watching it, I’d be happy with this follow through.  At this point and with that Gap open,  I’d have to wait for a pullback to comfortably enter now.

 

96 replies
    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Thanks Ziggy! You too.

      We are actually hitting 80+degrees in New England today, so I know I’ll be outside more than I’ll be inside: )

      Edit: I’m using Uranium stocks to hedge my ‘short Miners” ?

    • RAY
      RAY says:

      yes I do, however as long as “the chief” don’t tell me there’s a new cycle, starting ,I’m keeping my hands off until we have a “go” from the master – patience my friend : )

  6. The Seer
    The Seer says:

    I own VGZ. Pier 1 goes up each holiday with decor purchasing. Oil being bought with other currencies more and more and not
    in the US$. Geopolitical multi situations going on was wondering when metal would finally go up and miners follow.

  7. Hawaiifive0
    Hawaiifive0 says:

    Bought a small PIR @ 7.23. My JDST and DUST are killing me and going in the wrong direction. Still waiting for the turn around.

    • dialogueuser
      dialogueuser says:

      From what I can tell, the 50d sma for GDXJ is 37.74. If I’m correct, it’s close, and it’s the point Alex said he was going to bail from his JDST. In reality, he may just reduce at that point, or watch price action / potentially wait for end of day, but I’m just guessing.

      • Hawaiifive0
        Hawaiifive0 says:

        Maybe we just turned the corner. The 50 day does appear to be stopping it at least right now.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          so far so good, but GDX did break its 50 heading to the 200sma, so I have to wonder if Gold was up tomorrow would GDXJ try that? I think that some outside influences could be adding bullish pressure ( The Syria, N. Korea situation, etc).

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Hi – JUST GOT In today from being away from my screen.

        I have a stop beyond it , not too tight. Like $12.50 JDST may be the selling pressure for me, BUT I’m also open to adding JNUG & hedging since we are now later in the daily cycle. Ride JNUG UP, JDST DOWN, and dump one when it becomes clear.

        SO far my JDST held up enough that my FCEL , URRE, UUUU kind of hedged losses. I’m basically spread out enough that I’m treading water instead of making gains ( or losses)

        • dialogueuser
          dialogueuser says:

          Makes sense. I’m still holding GDXS, so the 2X aspect is making it less painful, but I’m running a 7% loss right now.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Yes, I added JDST early and am OK with my first purchase, but the 2nd addition is underwater, so I added a small short term hedge ( just a little JNUG) for a day or two to neutralize things.

            It will almost neutralize me either way , so I kind of hate to do that, but it just takes the edge off until we drop.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        I played the cycles. We should have topped btw day 8-12 and miners were at resistance. Not working out for me yet. Will be watching Bill’s resistance points!

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I know we knew this was a possibility, but starting to really lose faith that we got the gold cycles right. Doesn’t make sense. 2nd daily cycle sucked terribly and now the 3rd is really strong for Gold. I don’t get it. Still hanging on, but I’m not happy about it.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Gold cycles were right the whole time. Golds 2nd daily cycle was not bad, you are thinking about the Miners.

        Dont you remember that Gold had 2 R.T. daily cycles? That means new highs on the 3rd one.

        It was MINERS that failed us in February, they dropped early and they were L.T. I remember you writing that you wished that you just sold everything miners to lock in all of the dec – Feb gains.

        MINERS are where they were then. Look at GDXJ — that big down day that came out of no where…that is where GDXJ is now.

        It was the Miners that did not follow Gold. We had Gold correct.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          The un anticipated thing is ” Will Gold run to $1300 and do as a 3rd daily cycle can, and will Miners NOW follow Gold, though they didnt follow Gold in FEB?

          SO far GDX looks stronger and GDXJ is acting as expected.

        • Cason
          Cason says:

          Sorry, man, pretty much impossible for us humans not to mix emotions into this. Yeah, I got you and I’m following your posts and updates. Doesn’t all make sense, man. Gold is screaming along in Feb while USD is getting hammered and miners absolutely cave? USD finally hits a low about 1 1/2 weeks ago, we get no initial follow through on Syria and bad jobs report and then Gold randomly shoots up almost $20 today?? Miners that couldn’t get it going early in the cycle continue to show strength day and day again? Doesn’t make sense.

          Anyway, yes I agree with your posts and I continue to stay here with CF bc you’re spot on. But we also have to gauge this against expectations. Just trying to help you understand what the little guy is thinking. Think of this as a window into your fan base!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      JDST and DUST – GDX looks strong than GDXJ, GDXJ was still under the 50sma as expected. You COULD add a hedge and neutralize the position if concerned. I hate doing that at this point, but it does ease the pain until Miners reverse into a more sustained drop Yesterday they looked like they were going down, but these choppy markets defintely have JDST going from $13 – $15, and occasionally $12.80 to $15+.

      Tough ride for sure.

  8. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Hey Guys, I have been out & away all morning. I saw the Gold run on my phone and Miners. It seemed as expected, but the volume is pretty big in GDX for a small pop.
    I need to look at charts and several things.

    Expecting this POP as a possibility, once could have hedged the position ( If you bought JDSTT, instead of selling, you could have bought a few bullish looking Miners or even JNUG). So we have a small MID DAY pullback, and one could add a small position in a Miner or something to take some of the JDST drop away. I have to look things over and see what things look like. The possible pop was expected ( GDX to 200sma , GDXJ is still at the 50sma). Someone could go long with a trailing stop, buy a miner that looks good and just sell it sooner than later , etc if they need to hedge in some way.

    GOLD WAS a 2nd daily cycle R.T., and the 3rd usually makes new highs, Miners could be following, so that needs to be considered. CAN MINERS go higher following GOLD, which is a 1st , 2nd, & 3rd R.T. Daily? I still think that GDXJ look ‘average” under that 50sma, but never say never, so I may add protection ( a bit late) here. I hate the choppiness , it causes concern about things possibly changing, but so far this was still expected. We are in the 20’s count for this daily cycle, but Gold to $1300 and a pullback into a dcl, could be a pullback to the 200sma. I guess. then the 4th daily cycle rolls over L.T.

    Look at VGZ – if that type of move holds into the close, it somewhat might indicate lack of conviction in this mornings buying.

    BUT I WILL SAY THIS, THE RSI ON GDX IS STRONG, AND THAT DIDN’T HAPPEN IN OCTOBER WHEN I COMPARED THE 2 TIMES AS SIMILAR IN THIS REPORT.

    Refresh
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0515f4c6c82e853fcab4e31918305269476ac66b177b2aebdee549620da8ebae.jpg

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      VGZ is starting to move higher again, and it could be a low risk long. You could buy it here and just stop out if it drops.

      I am looking at GDX dash to the 200sama, and GDXJ hsnt, but will it? Are the Juniors going to do as GDX did today?

      If one is thinking along those lines, it is still a trade. No trade has guarantees – so I would take the trade long & just be willing to sell if it drops below a reasonable point.

  9. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    NOTE: With the lunch time pullback, I added a small hedge JUST IN CASE GDXJ breaks the 50sma and runs to the 200sma as GDX has.

    EDIT: I will only hold it until I think that Miners may be at resistance or GOLD might be dropping again. I should have done this yesterday when I saw GG & ABX as potentially bullish short term set ups, but I was distracted by Uraniums, etc

  10. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    CDE , AG, and other silver miners that were toasted and at lows do look to be recovering well here.

    CDE & AG to the 200sma would be a good trade with trailing stops.

    EXK & FSM = WEAK

    Still a mixed bag of tricks here

  11. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    BY THE WAY- I spent hours filing Schedule K-1s . I had no idea how many energy companies are partnerships like that, and I HATE THAT. I like to do my own taxes, I like math, I enjoy the challenge at times, but I HATE those schedule K-1s.

    It makes me want to avoid trading them. LGCY was one of them.

    • Pat
      Pat says:

      Alex, I try to stay away from K-1s, if possible. I know this is a pretty general question, but do these have a “material impact” on your taxes, i.e. on your gains/losses at the end of the day?

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        They often do not, the income or gain is usually already claimed in the other paperwork, but they can, and I had a couple that did add a tax onto my bottom line. Small amt, but it was considered an additional gain

  12. dsaulw
    dsaulw says:

    Stocks and gold have been trading opposite each other lately. Stocks may have just put in a near-term low, which (if it holds) may correspond to a short-term pullback in gold. I still expect gold to continue higher medium-term.

  13. SonOfGud
    SonOfGud says:

    you learn summat new every day… i never knew there was a 1x bear miner.
    well now i do, and it is MELT.

  19. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    UPDATE 1/2 hr before the close…..

    Gold is up $20 , and under normal circumstances I’m pretty sure that JNUG & NUGT would be having a 20% day.

    I see JNUG up 5% and NUGT up 8% .

    Not bad, but seems a bit less than normal . I usually see individual Miners up 8-13% with the occasional 14-18% juniors.

    Right now I see a lot of 3-5% gains in many Miners, and I do see some RED ONES with GOLD & Silver up ( GPL, EGI, SAND, KLDX, NSU, )

    I do love the charts of AG, CDE,

    NG FSM, EXK, etc at or still near March lows,

    So I am still getting a very mixed reaction here.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Take a quick look at GPL, SAND, NG, FSM, EXK, NSU…

      I.M.H.O. – If we are on the verge of a huge move, these would probably play catch up, so you haven’t missed the trade, we could jump on them or others that are still under their 50sma ( GDXJ). And CDE and AG are still well below prior highs…

      I think they are a ‘tell’ however, that this move is the final push before we get the drop into the dcl.

      This is not easy watching some Miners move higher while on the sidelines ( And some may choose to take a short trade in a bullish looking set up), but I still think we are seeing what we expected in the bigger picture.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      That’s kind of a WOW chart. That was also right before the drop into the next ICL. I’m not saying that we’ll have that kind of a bear market drop, but look at that drop that followed your first circle.

  23. Cason
    Cason says:

    While I was definitely caught a bit offguard by the sudden strength in gold this morning I really am more neutral than short. I have some GLD puts that I was clearly too early in, but I had well-defined risk and am still long a few miners that have had solid performance the past week. Thanks to CF for navigating these troubles waters for us! I’m losing very little capital and will be ready to go back all in when time! 🙂

  24. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Haven’t had time to read the last 2 reports – been at the hospital almost non stop with my mom since last Thursday…just a quick glance tells me that maybe I haven’t missed a super big move in miners….? Trying to play catch up on my reading…..

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Basically yes, some Miners are moving higher, others laying low. Gold is POPPING, but if you look through the charts in the last 2 reports, really not unexpected- but it wasn’t my first an strongest thought- that Miners wouldnt get above the 50sma, but it was a possibility & a run to the 200sma would follow ( GDX broke above the 50sma and can run to the 200sma / GDXJ still under the 50sma for now, but it also COULD pop to the 200sma. ).

      Really sorry to hear about you mother first and foremost. I’m sure that she loves to have you with her and feels the love of family that can make such a trying time a bit easier to endure. If she is awake, you can tell her that we at Chartfreak are genuinely thinking of her and wishing her well. Why not tell her the gang here says Hello. Well wishes for Tammies Mom.

      • Tammie
        Tammie says:

        Thanks, Alex, I certainly will tell her. It’s been kind of touch and go, taking a day at a time – she’s doing better this evening than yesterday – I honestly didn’t know what was going to happen yesterday and through the night but she’s better today – we’ll see what tomorrow brings. She was awake and talking a bit when I left her with my aunt tonight. I’m planning on staying home a bit in the morning because I’m just really tired, so hope to catch up on reading some of your reports. 🙂 Truly appreciate the thoughts and well wishes!

Comments are closed.