Thursday March 30
SPX – I still have concerns with the weakness internally of the XLF, so I’m watching the General Markets closely. So far we have a swing low and a move that closed above the 10sma Wednesday. Anyone long should still be using a stop as we wait for an overhead trend-line to be broken.
XLF still needs to improve to prove to me that the markets are healthy, and it remains trapped under the 50sma. I still see internal weakness in the banks.
GS – This is not a healthy chart, and this is not a strong recovery at this point. It remains an area of concern with me, but it is quite oversold and we just need to see some strong buying to repair the chart. Stay Frosty, however, if you are long the markets.
USD – We see a swing low in place, and a rise in the USD should eventually drop GOLD & Miners in my opinion.
I want to review what I have been saying I am and have been seeing for OIL.
I have been saying that I expect a drop to the lower $40s for Oil this spring. As seen in this MARCH 10th chart, I showed that OIL could bounce out of a dcl, but I still expected lower price. I showed a possible bounce to say, $50+. SO THIS IS WORTH TRADING HERE, and if it is THE LOWS we’ll know in time, but I expected a bounce and another drop. Lets continue…
WTIC MARCH 17 – Again, I said that we would expect a bounce (a Dcl) but I am thinking that it is not finished to the downside, so if we are long Energy, we could raise mental stops / stops and see how this plays out..
MARCH 21st – After a small bounce, Oil started to drop and the MACD was weak( Momentum), but I pointed out that we could still get the bigger bounce to back test the break down ( Green line) ,or just drop. Look at the November lows, bottoming can be a process.
MARCH 29 – We have the DCL here, so that is considered trade-able and then watch it is as it gets to resistance. I expected that this bounce could happen, and keep in mind that with cycles, even a L.T. Bounce could back test the break down or 50sma in a 15 day rise in price , yet still continue down.
So the idea is that the Trade in OIL can be taken as a short term trade, since the move out of a dcl may not peak for 2 weeks or even a bit more with Oil ( I have been showing some trade set ups in Energy stocks like SWN, OAS, DNR, CRK, LPI, etc etc). After several days, you just have to be alert as OIL approaches the 50sma. Oil COULD drop to a new low in an ICL and energy stocks can put in a higher low ( Divergence) . We will get a better idea as time moves forward. You can take profits / raise stops / watch to see if we just had an ICL and Lows are in, or was it a DCL with an ICL still ahead? I have been pointing to a DCL here and the ICL is still ahead, Energy stocks likely resisting the next wave of selling. XLE may put in a higher low. So this is why I recommend caution while taking the energy trades, and I will keep tracking it for us as it plays out.
NATGAS – Inventory report comes out on Thursday. So far NATTY is acting bullishly, as expected. It may be due for a small pullback, since it is hitting the top of this channel. I say that regardless of the report, we either break out or have a normal pull back. I don’t expect a peak yet, but NATTY could drop to the 50sma.
GOLD – Day 13, no new high, Double top in progress? I think so. The 200sma is holding price back, and in a 3rd daily cycle, we should have made new highs by now if we are going to. ALL OF THAT and the fact that the USD put in a dcl points to a drop in the price of GOLD. I own NO miners at this time. “Topping” can be a process, so each morning that GOLD is green, we’ve seen the Miners struggle.
GDX- Do the Miners look as strong as Gold? No. One huge Fed Day Burst and the topping process started, right? This is not a bull flag by the way. And GDX ( & GDXJ) bounced on very light volume to back test the 10 & 13 sma respectively on Wednesday. Any PUSH higher above these moving averages would have to come soon. My expectations are for MINERS to drop.
As we watch things unfold, we will get a better idea of how things can play out in the long run, but so far things are finally lining up the way that I have expected. In the weekend report, we will continue to examine these set ups. Have a great Thursday Trading and thanks for being a Chartfreak reader!
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~ALEX
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I still like all of the trades mentioned in prior reports. That would include General Market trades, Energy Trades, and some of the Biotech set ups like OVAS, NAK, CHK, SWN, DNR, LPI, CLF, TGB, AKS, and others etc. etc. , as they play out. I will look for and provide more set ups for tomorrows report if they present themselves as low risk set ups. What about the General Markets though, and the concern that BANKS and the XLF may struggle in weakness?
That could resolve itself with an upside push, but if not let’s discuss what we might see and the need for ‘stops’
HBM – Some material stocks look to be set up to break higher, but this could also drop to the 200sma, right? HBM has bullish divergence in the RSI and MACD HISTOGRAM so it is a buy set up if it breaks out. It has been consolidating under the 50sma and is still under the down trend line, so if one enters a trade like this, they’ll use a tight-ish stop and watch what happens at the 50sma. They also may wait for a break out of the down trend. If the markets weaken this could fall to the 200sma.
So we want to look at trades from both sides at this point, until the general markets break higher. THIS IS WHY WE TAKE A TRADE AT A LOW RISK POINT, BUT CONTINUE TO HONOR STOPS. Let’s look at 4 possibilities of a good looking trade set up. It can break out here or just continue to consolidate if the general markets do not just break out higher and run to new highs.
TGB – Ready to break the 50 sma, this looks like a good set up and could continue to consolidate in a progressive manner, or…
TGB – after a 2 month consolidation, it could just break out higher and run to new highs
TGB- But when I see the XLF and Banking sector struggle, it could indicate that the general markets would continue to consolidate also. That said, a stock like TGB might do the same, so trades taken now should include a stop loss.
TGB- Honestly, I like the higher low and divergence in the RSI & MACD and would take this trade with a stop below the recent lows. It is a nice set up, especially if it breaks above the 50sma.
Not a whole lot to do at the moment, in my opinion. We don’t have a lot of conviction in the major areas (miners and the SPX) and still quite a few conflicting signals, for example financials weak while expecting a higher SPX. This is ok, it just means I should sit until more obvious trades set up. I’m looking to load up on miners at some point, nibbling on down days or oversold technicals until we get a big push lower when I can really get busy buying heavy, if that happens, but so far it just looks like lots of indecision to me, while markets make up their mind on the next big move.
Yes, the Euro is at a support level now and may rally, at least short term.
At the miner lows this winter I was slowly scaling into JNUG. Now it appears that we are trying for a rounding top. So doing the exact inverse, each pop in miners, adding just a bit of JDST. I won’t know the top until after it’s in and can’t perfect if/when exactly we could go a huge drop. So just leaking in with a few shares every 2-3 days. When drop does get here, I’ll be ready. Keeping avg cost low, if we push hard above 50, I’d be wrong and stop out entirely. GL all. I missed energy so far, will stalk in case other entry presents itself.
out of MACK with a few cent loss per share. I bought too soon and hate being in the middle of the consolidation. If it runs, I either jump back in or let it go without me. Lesson learned.
I think MACK looks good, man, shoulda held a bit longer. She may come back and pick you up again if you’re still interested!
KSHB just keeps going…..I’m not in it..
TQQQ/QQQ have hit a new record intraday high today. I swallowed my pride and bot some TQQQ this week, taking Alex’s advice not to keep waiting for another dip that may not come. Still ticked at myself for literally sleeping through a great buying opp in TQQQ on Monday. I expected the stock market drop to last longer and drop further so I was not watching the market carefully. Frustrating. But as Alex points out, we are only in Day 3 or 4 of a new DC for stocks, correct? QQQ is much stronger than SPY, that’s why I trade the Q’s. I’m still hoping for a pullback to the 10 day SMA, but I have quite a bit of skin in the game already.
That “fat pitch” you were looking for might be off speed. 🙂
This is NOT a “fat pitch” trade … that would have been TQQQ dropping to its 50 day SMA around $80. Instead the cut fastball dipped down to around $83 but I was not even at the plate for that at bat. Enough baseball analogies. 🙂
That is true some of us like to play “small ball”.
Crude Oil:
A DCL is in for sure CF but……this “looks and feels” like an ICL to me with a V shape bottom occurring? An ICL is also due cycle wise?
Long USO and XOM Calls.
XLF broke above the 10 sma this morning, next the 50 sma?
Healthy conformation for the Market.
Long Calls.
Not sure what just happened to CNBX….don’t see any news ..
Some what similar to CNAB a couple of days ago. CNAB now has regained its 20SMA and CNBX has just fallen (is still falling) to its 20SMA. Might be a buying opportunity once the knife lands.
Yeah, I’ve been watching CNAB make a come back…I don’t have any now….some of these marijuanas are also getting ready to report earnings…..
I bought CNAB when you mentioned it and so far up 9% and will probably sell it shortly . My only other one is OWCP, which while I really believe it has a market in psoriasis meds, has been spiraling down and is just about to be jettisoned by me.
Yeah, I had CNAB and sold at a loss…..should have held…:(…..I had OWCP but wow the fall in that one made me bail as well…..I think they will have good products and …hopefully one day will really be able to come back….seems like until the govt. gives some clear green light on things many of them are just stuck…..except KSHB the last few days…wow….wish I had that one! There are a few charts that are looking good to me now….but hard to tell if they will play out….
EDXC is KILLING ME!!! With these dang daily pops and then giving it all up. Ugh.
Yeah, these are really hard to do anything with right now….except for KSHB…which I don’t have…:(
Maybe off subject but ……. for the caffeine lovers, here is a South African bean that is Extremely high in caffeine per kilogram: (like 300% more)
Black Insomnia.
Interestingly I have been participating (as a subject) in the Harvard Health Professional Longitudinal Study since the late 80s and they were the first to find the benefits of coffee by ruling out the negative effects of cigarettes, by letting coffee stand on its own.
http://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/caffeine-healthy-diet-may-boost-memory-thinking-skills-alcohols-effect-uncertain-201406187219
Interesting article….thanks Ed
Your certainly welcome. They also published that the more cups you drink the better effect on overall health.
Im not sure…. My doc took me off caffeine as I was drinking about 5-6 cups a day and developed panic disorder – not saying the coffee did it, but it doesnt help one bit
Were you saying you still have the panic attacks? I was refering to this study:
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/New-Harvard-study-says-drinking-a-whole-lot-of-6638644.php
I was actually just diagnosed. Had my first massive attack on my birthday on Feb 10th of this year…. Spent it in the ER thinking it was a heart attack… I have insomnia so I drink a ton of coffee and docs say that could be a huge contributing factor. So after 10+ years of heavy coffee consumption, They made me go cold turkey. Withdrawal was horrible from it, and now my panic attacks have turned into disorder. Happen quite frequently and always very randomly… apparently caffeine is NO good for anxiety and panic – btw, I never had a problem with anxiety or panic my entire life…. Just happened one day outta no where.. Dont wish it on anyone
Wow! So sorry, a possible option might be to have an endocrinologist do a work-up and see if there is a hormonal answer. Here is a resource of great information collected over the years from the Harvard School of Public Health in their Health Professionals Longitudinal Study. It is specifically pertinent to men but there was a corresponding woman’s study done on nurses starting at the same time (1987). The concentration is on dietary effects on health. The news letters go way back and data continues to be extrapolated of those of us that continue living.
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hpfs/hpfs_publications.htm
Thanks – Ill def take a loo. Im healthy, eat healthy, work out and weight train 4-5x a week… This is outta nowhere and taking a heavy toll on daily life and my family.. Crazy stuff. Didnt have one episode on my vacation, got back to LA and BOOM – all over again.
I think you identified the issue. LA!!
Sorry to hear. Caffeine withdrawal headaches are the absolute worst!!
Sorry to hear Bay. I wish I could help in some way but I have no experience in panic attacks. stopping coffee consumption for me would likely be as tough as quitting cigarettes cold turkey.
Bay Trader, Wanted to put this in an inconspicuous spot after hours so as not to violate your privacy, but I came across this excellent article to show your MDs. I will post the conclusion but remember while reading this, while it seems exhaustive, there are many simple routine blood tests to indicate some of thes pathologies.
Conclusions
Although space does not permit a more detailed review, a critical review of the literature15 17 39 shows relationships between medically induced anxiety and hyper-and hypoglycemia, hyper- and hypoparathyroidism, hyper- and hypopituitarism, hyper- and hypoestrogenemia, hyper- and hypoandrogenemia,88 89 hyperprolactinemia, hyper- and hypocalcemia,85 hyper- and hypothyroidism, hyperadrenalism (Cushing’s disease),81 adrenal insufficiency,106 growth hormone deficiency, pituitary microadenoma88 and pheochromocytoma.13
http://www.drrichardhall.com/anxiety.htm
Thanks Ed… I have an appt with an endocrinologist next week to test hormones… Docs have prescribed anti depressants and Klonopin which terrify me, but its starting to get out of hand. Ill take a look at that article – thanks again.
Glad to hear you have an appt. I think it might be your answer. I found it intriguing in the article that people who had tested normal in thyroid function (euthyroid) at the onset of panic attacks, two years later were diagnosed with hyperthyroidism (panic attacks were actually a precursor, or at least preceded diagnostic criteria).
Some one put some coal in Peabody’s stocking this morning. BTQQQ.
Alex. Any thoughts on AKS. I own it from 7.22. Still struggling.
It’s struggling to find Buyers I guess. It isnt acting like X, CENX, TGB out of the lows. It seems to have hit the 10 sma and pulled back.
Be sure to have a stop in place just in case it breaks the 200sma
The French vote April 23 and the IMF BIS meeting April 21-23 should get things going.
ICGQF doing well. I mentioned it here around .60. It is holding at .67 right now.
The Triangle doubling ground projections report . . . . rallied the stock.
Looks like TQQQ may be putting in a short-term top, so I may get the big dip I’ve been waiting for after all. Action looks similar to early September of last year where the BB narrowed and TQQQ dipped below the lower BB then popped above the upper BB before rolling over into a deeper drop. So I may get my “fat pitch” entry point yet … just need to be awake! LOL
Steve, so it’s not so good to buy into the general market yet, right?
TQQQ looks good on my daily chart, but it could be topping short term. Nice run from Monday, but I got in late and missed most of that. I have a very small starter position and I sold some today to take profits. Just want to have something on the table if TQQQ takes off without dropping much more. As I have posted previously, I would have been in TQQQ since the beginning of the year but I kept waiting for a good dip that never came. The dip starting March 21 was the beginning of a long-awaited downtrend, the question is how long will it last. IF Monday was the “bottom” I want to be in, but I’m also prepared (and hoping for) a much deeper dip to come so I can load up. I would like to have about 50% of my retirement accounts in TQQQ and let it ride for most of the year if it continues to be in a strong UP trend. Long term, I’m much more bullish on stocks than PM’s, I know that is opposite of many traders here.
Steve, I’m thinking the same thing as you. I don’t think miners have any bright future for the long term. The Chinese are not so in love with gold anymore. 🙂
Just an FYI –
Using an 8 EMA on a daily chart , I decided to re-enter CGIX with a starter position and I will add if it continues to consolidate ad drop further.
Hi. You have been thinking out loud and I find it very helpful. If you could possibly expand on your thought process on CGIX because it looks like its rolling over ST, though still above the 8 ema. Are you looking at mid March as pattern ? Where is your mental-hard stop ? Thank you in advance.
It is a ‘starter’ position, which to me means that it is a logical place to step back in with a relatively smaller position ( I sold it in 2 places much higher , so it is a re-entry with profits already gathered on the first run up) , just in case tags the 8 EMA and moves higher , similar to what it did on March 22.
If it drops further, I will be watching to add if it continues to act correctly. By having a small position, I am more likely to track it and figure it out, and not forget about it. To understand what I mean by ‘figure it out’, I mean how it will act going forward.
1. It can drop all the way back into the base and continue to consolidate, or
2. It can climb a stair way higher, Like NAK did.
Look at NAK from OCT to January. This is similar to how I played NAK, but I used the 13 sma & 20 sma for NAK after figuring out that that was where Nak liked to reverse..
EDIT: There is a gap at $3, and the 50sma could be in that area in the next few days, so that is why I have this as a small starter position
MACK is pushing up against the 10sma..right after I sell. LOL. never fails 🙂
MACK actually looks really good with a nice tight base. It could just keep basing, but it does look like it wants to break out higher . Thanks for reminding me .
50 sma too
Ya, I posted earlier today that I let it go. I bought too soon???
Oh yeah, I just scrolled down and saw that. I’ve been away ( I’m in & out today) this morning,
BCEI with that follow thru
saw that ad hoc equity group made a proposal recently to increase equity in RSA to 12.xx % vs the 4.5 % that is on the table from the debtors. confirmation meeting pushed (again) until early april
starting to pick up quite nicely actually
MACk starting to move
Didnt you but BCEI yesterday? It has a nice move today 🙂
Good grab BT
I did!! 1.15
And there goes MACK..Dang! Story of my life.
news about a sale of Onivyde and Doxil for 1.025 billion
That was probably just me taking a small position : )
I hate you. 🙂
Alex, would you take a shot shorting the XLF at the 50 day resistance?
I’m not sure how much downside it will have ( Could be that 1-2-3-4-5, and you may be shorting the drop to ‘2’, but I will say that volume is drying up on the way higher.
I have been out so I need to run through a bunch of charts right now. so I WONT BE SHORTING IT, but it could be a valid trade if we keep rising on thin air
Bought a starter in MACK
Me too, but don’t tell Rob, He’s an old friend.
Hah!
Constructive so far today, I may need to add. Really liked the potential in the chart!
It just seems as though miners do not want to plunge, the way they are sometimes inclined to do.
That could change, but I suspect that their decline is going to be modest near-term, and then they will take off once gold is through with its correction.
Using a 13 sma on OVAS, kind of looks like it could be a bull flag forming. If it drops to the 13 sma I will add.
If it breaks out upside, I will try to add AS IT BREAKS out.
Using a 4 month chart, I’d like to see that GAP on the left overhead fill : )
Is it still (just thinking loud) your idea to sell JDST at 15.50 ALEX ???
Thanks Sir !!!
That was a ‘scalp’ trade , if someone just wanted to do a quick 1 or 2 days trade.
I am not selling, I think miners are going down
Yesterday before you show us the two charts from GDXJ and JDST I own already some of the JDST around the 14.50
Was wondering -and I still have them- what your what’s were.
Anyway I think indeed miners will go down a bit more.
Thank-you-so-much for your response ALEX !!!
I’m holding a bit longer, man. Ready in case we really get a wipeout. If we get overbought big-time, I’ll peel some off and rebuy when it resets.
Overbght. on the daily?
Refresh….
OVAS is slightly overbought, but it’s a possible bull flag
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/64a333818e28fac3b2f67ff813e0f24fa1fff01d9f50be9749d265851e6da147.jpg
Agree…….
my Uranium plays are driving me batty
Every time I try URRE I get stopped immediately.
Don’t know who mentioned VSTM but please stand up and be acknowledged.
It was me, but it was not my pick, one of the readers that doesnt post in the comments emailed it to me.
Nice call. Thank him for me.
I am riding some Jdst too; my sense is silver will get whacked either shortly or at 18.50. In which case- the juniors should get hit pretty hard.
As a caveat, I’m a gold bug, at least I could be described similar to one… which brings a reminder I used to hear listening to Don Coxe, ‘those that know it best, like it least because they have been disappointed the most”….. Which creates the opportunity.
I’m hoping for the drop, the pain, and wherewithal to go long- Aren’t we all.
With you there Glenfidd
Yep. Amen. Sing it brother. On the same train. Sure would be great if miners just shot up from here. But they ain’t. So might as well make a buck until the next buy comes along.