Feb 14- Holding On

I believe that Fed Chairman Janet Yellen is meeting with congress on Tuesday to discuss  monetary policy. This could affect the USD and Precious metals if she mentions inflation and interest rate hike expectations, so let’s take a look at what the charts are telling us.

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The SPX continued higher, and this makes this likely a right translated daily cycle. The bullishness of the general markets is holding on.

REMINDER:  The SPX can ride up this wedge as the VIX drops down to lows that usually lead to a market top. I mentioned using a trailing stop if you were long to lock in gains.

From Feb 2 – Higher price is possible.

I’m not trying to confuse things, but I thought that this was interesting. The SOXS , a bear Semiconductor play, is looking like it is forming a bottom with that MACD rising. It can bottom further, but going forward I will watch this along with the semi’s.

At the same time, I still see many individual Tech stocks that look quite bullish.  FNSR, MU, AMD, CY, and so on. Take a look at those charts.

Another example is TWLO. At the end of December I liked TWLO and posted this chart as it Popped.  It looked like a bullish Pop with a bullish MACD, meaning that it could be putting in its lows.  It was in the $35 area.

I decided to look at it again, and even though you can see that Dec pop, it basically just based out since then. The 50sma held it down and there was a quick shake out, but it now has formed a base and looks even more bullish. It broke above the 50sma and looks ready to go.  Therefore, I am still seeing bullish set ups in the TECH area. TWLO looks very bullish now and I would consider this a buy.

Again, for now, if I was long, I would let it ride and follow it with a trailing stop  ( or mental stop).  The VIX is basing out at the 11 area and in the weekend report I showed that it could spike this spring. That will bring the markets down in the spring.

USD – So far this is exactly what I have been expecting. We’ll see if the USD can SPIKE through the 50sma, or will it fail there.  The Yellen testimony could cause a reaction. I think that the USD is about to top, become Left Translated, and this will give precious metals a lift. This is exactly what I have expected to happen, because the USD is due for it’s YCL and that starts with a drop into an ICL.  You know how those go.  🙂

WTIC – Day after day Oil goes sideways , looking for a direction to break in. The longer this goes on, Oil runs out of time to move higher. Here it sits on the 50sma.  Neutral again and still hanging on.

NATGAS –  I have been bearish on NATGAS, but as mentioned in prior reports, we might be close to a low being put in.

GOLD – Gold sold off and reversed higher into the end of the day. No damage, and it is still bullish looking.

GDXJ  (And GDX)  –  From Friday GDXJ remained above the 10sma and the 200sma.  It still does.

GDX MONDAY – Still hanging on.

Time has moved forward, but not a lot has changed. My expectations remain the same. Yellen Tuesday awaits us. Read on, and I will again discuss a few trades.

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~ALEX

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PLG –  on Feb 9th I pointed out that PLG could bull flag under the 200sma. A bull flag eventually breaks out higher.

PLG – I do see a possible Bull flag forming and someone could add in the flag or usually one buys the break out with a stop below the flag.

URA – I discussed that some using E.W. would consider this a 5 wave complete and now it would drop.  I then looked at individual Uranium stocks and they looked bullish, not toppy. I was even recommending URRE as a buy again and noticed other bullish looking Uranium stocks, so I had another idea. this was NOT 5 waves complete. That was also too strong to be a H&S.  I wrote that this was too zealous of a bounce last week.  Uraniums were a buy.

URA could be moving higher. That did Not look like a H&S to me in URA or other Uranium stocks, and 5 waves looked complete, but now we have to go back and redo the count.

URA broke to new highs today.

Is this following 5 waves of E.W.? I’m not going to search for 5 waves and go back and recount. Yes it looks like a Giant 1-2- and now 3 with that double bottom, but it also  looked like 5 obvious waves from Nov to now, and now it wasn’t, I’m just going to assume that it could work back to 2015 resistance.   I may skip the E.W. labeling for now.

This was a buy point for URRE on this weekly chart.  I actually bought it under $2 closer to $1.80 tagging the 50sma on the daily chart.

URRE NOW– This was Monday morning and URRE actually closed up almost 12% higher at $2.35. I almost wish that I didn’t put an E.W. possibility on this.  I want to just watch it as it moves higher, but right now it remains bullish to me. It sat on the 10sma at $2 for 2 days, so I’ll probably use that as a mental stop.

EDXC –  I’ve owned this for quite a while, and have discussed their phyto-bites product in the past.  It held the 50sma and I like the companies product & potential going forward. It could be bought here above the 50sma.  Please do your own due diligence.

IPI – I was asked about IPI in the comments section today, I had recommended it at the end of January. It looked ready to break out & run then ( with this chart) .

IPI –  As you can see, it was just 1 more POP and consolidate, but I do like this set up.  I think that once it gets follow through, it could do very well.

IPI WEEKLY – This is why I like the upside potential. I do not own it, but when it breaks higher, I will probably jump on board.  Good for the watchlist.