JANUARY 11 – COPY / PASTE

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As I was gathering charts for the report, I realized that many of the charts for Tuesday looked just like Mondays.  That means there really isn’t a whole lot new to say in some sectors, so let’s do our review and then discuss some stock picks.

.

From Monday – no Dow 20,000

No big change – Copy / Past

USD MONDAY – bottoming (Dcl) near the 50sma?

USD – Bottoming ( Dcl) near the 50sma? This could bring about our dcl in Gold.

 

WTIC Monday – Breaks the trend line and starts a drop into a dcl.

WTIC Tuesday  – Now on day 38.   I noticed that my count went off by a day on Mondays chart, other than that?  Copy / Paste . Drop to a dcl, watching the 50sma.   We had a very right translated daily cycle, so I should expect a break to new highs. Due for an ICL soon, it may be a false break and roll over by day 10 or so, si I will be watching for and expecting that.

NATGAS –  This one changed. We had a reversal and possible shake out at the 50sma.

 

This was my chart of GOLD recently, pointing out that a run from the lows to around 1200 was in the cards for the 1st daily cycle. Note the Magenta line and the the 50sma is there.

GOLD – Day 16 and we are at the 50sma area. This is a possible resistance area, so we could see a number of possibilities here.  I CAN NOT tell you exactly what is going to happen, but I did say in December that I expect 2 daily bullish cycles minimum, and so far we have seen the first one acting bullishly.  See the chart below and then we can  look at possibilities…

 

GOLD COULD ACT LIKE THIS – A break out into, let’s say,  day 20, and then a dip into the dcl  for a back test of the 50sma. This is bullish.

GOLD COULD ALSO ACT LIKE THIS –  It could start the drop right now and still remain bullish

GDX – People are complaining that Miners are going no where. Please be aware that in a dcl, they are known to break below the 10sma.

 

As you know, I have been watching various sectors for set ups.  Miners, Uranium, Industrial Metals, MJ stocks, etc.  Let’s look at a few set ups pointed out and see what they look like now. (  I am not going to look at all of the Uranium stocks listed yesterday. They exploded in a big way and now one needs to wait for a pull back).

 

CLF – DEC 23rd, this was a cup & handle and could drop to the 50sma, but the set up is favorable for another move higher, into the teens. I believe usually wait for a break above the 10sma, or take a partial and add on that break.

CLF –  There is the break and close above the 10sma.  I think that you will see CLF in the teens in the coming weeks.

FCX – This was a buy ( Shake out ) and I have heard from a few readers that bought it here and have been patiently waiting for some upside.

FCX – I do believe that the wait is over, however we see a gap  🙁  It doesn’t have to fill, but if it does, it could be an opportunity for others to enter the trade or add to your current position.

VALE –  My chart from Jan 3rd.  This did a shake out and closed above the 10sma. A low risk buy around $8.00

VALE – This took a while too, boring those who took a position, but it never stopped them out, Never closed belwo the 10 or 50sma again.  The patient ones did see this jump 10% yesterday. I see this in the teens in the near future too.

WRN – I still own this one, and was surprised that it didn’t jump yesterday.  Is something wrong? I do not know.   As usual, I sold some ( of what I bought near $1.00) when it popped and now added again on this tag of the 13 sma yesterday.  Copper was taking off and FCX, TGB, etc were too, so why not WRN?  I do not know, and that made it hard to add on this one, but the set up is a bullish consolidation and selling volume was light, so I had to take that chance. My mental stop will be deep, since I own most of it since $1.00.  My stop will be (painfully )  $1.20 if it drops.

 

This is a Gold stock that I never mentioned due to the consistently light volume  (And it was $0.09). This pop may be indicative of something good coming. I researched it and they do have property and recent purchases, the base is very nice. Maybe throw on a watch list?  Small lottery ticket type buy & hold? This is OTCBB, so be cautious.

 

PLG – I posted this yesterday and just wanted to re-post it. This is a bottoming process that looks ready to launch.

 

MTL – I had been watching MTL inside of this long consolidation.  It had an exceptional run higher along with CLF, VALE, etc. and was now consolidating gains toward the 50sma ( not shown on this chart). On a smaler time frame, I saw it break out and bought it at the $6.15-$6.20 area and posted this in the comments. Big volume was coming in on 5 & 15 minute charts.

MTL –  When this one moves, it really moves.  I did not get to add to my position all day long.  I was hoping that it would dip down a bit, but it ran higher, went sideways an closed near the highs.  NOTICE how this ran in Sept, Oct, & Nov.  I want to add to my position. See the next chart also.

MTL – MTL has a huge base and if you’ve been here for a while, then you know that I LOVE buying & Holding stocks that have a big long base.  The move upward can be very profitable for the patient ones. This looks ready to break from the pink resistance area (consolidation) and into the yellow one. 🙂

The above charts of CLF, FCX, MTL and so on could still be entered for a move higher, but your “low risk” entry is no longer very low risk. You may have to endure a little pain if they bounce around before running higher.  Again, I want to add to MTL, and I may have to add higher than where it traded Tuesday.

Conclusion: I am really liking the various set ups that are forming and leading to explosive moves higher. I also do like the way precious Metals are acting. I dont want miners to run straight up and collapse, and this has been a healthy move out of the lows.  Many still do not believe that the move is real, and that is what I like to see. As a trader, we are in a traders paradise, able to buy low and ride trades for days and weeks, not just ‘a day’.   That is what I love to see and I think that 2017 is going to be a great year of gains if we…

STAY FROSTY! 

 

~ALEX

 

Oh, O.K.    more set of chart.

 

URRE – January 4th, I have been pointing this out as low risk buy and bullish break out. It was a buy.

Once again, it took patience to allow it to find the follow through as it back tested the 50sma successfully, so I posted this chart to offer another buy on Jan 9th.

JAN 10th.  Congrats to anyone that grabbed this set up. A big burst like this can bull flag, pause, or even pull back, but I’m letting my position ride for a bit. It looks like the Uranium sector as a whole has bottomed and there is not a lot of competition after the recent bear market starting in 2011.  CCJ is the best of the breed, and it is also moving nicely higher. A safer buy & hold.

122 replies
  1. Cason
    Cason says:

    CF, got my first email alert in well over a week and the browser certificate errors have cleared. So looks like we are good to go. Thanks to the support folks for getting that fixed.

  2. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    Alex, I know you have been asked these questions before, but for the sake of newer readers and a refresher for me: do you have separate accounts for your short-term and long term trades? I know it varies depending on the current market action, but how many open positions do you typically hold in your accounts? Do you have a maximum % for each holding per account? For example, I know traders who will not put more than 10-15% of their account into any one position. As you know, I don’t have much time to follow the markets during the day so I mainly invest in ETF’s and limit myself to 2 or 3 open positions at a time in my 5 accounts. Currently I’m very heavy in GDXJ with some AG and SLW for exposure to the silver market in my main retirement accounts. I’m also very heavy in JNUG in my trading account.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Separate accounts.

      Trading : I like to keep 1 – 5 good positions trading & some cash much of the time to keep it manageable, but
      I may have 10 at any given time if markets are setting up exceptionally well. Also at ICL’s I am all in by some point.

      If I see a really good set up and I own10 positions, I’ll choose one to sell before I buy another, based on the charts.
      I also dont care what (reasonable) % I put in one stock, if the set up is right and the company is reliable, I will go in heavy with a stop and peel some off on the way up.

      I run through the charts of the stocks I own constantly and monitor them – if they are not acting correctly? I cut the ones that are no longer doing what I thought they would when I purchased them. No emotional attachment or ‘hope’ this comes back. I’ll sell for a loss to enter one set up to gain, rather than ride a loss for an unknown amount of time and miss a good gainer..

      With that in mind, I repeatedly tell myself this –

      Owning more than a 8-10 stocks is as easy as herding cats. Picture trying to manage 20 cats running around out in the yard. They go in all directions, and so do stocks. It gets unmanageable.

  3. Crawdaddy
    Crawdaddy says:

    Alex, good morning. I’m curious if you are able to get a cycle count on uranium. I know that many commodities are difficult to count. Should you have a count ,could you please share. Fine job for the company!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I have never had any reason to look into it, and it takes a long time to determine the cycles timing by going back over the past 17 yrs or so. It can be done, but also if it moves from a bear market to Bull market, Daily cycles lengths can change due to short cover & bullish sentiment stretching things out, so off hand… no, I havent looked into it yet.

      • Crawdaddy
        Crawdaddy says:

        Fair enough, it’s not like your hard up for something to do. I haven’t a clue how you keep up on, and continue to learn every day the way you do as it is.

  6. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    Another down day for miners, don’t be in a rush to buy this dip IMO. Miners are still in a “down” trend on my 15 min chart and may continue dropping for a while today.

      • Steve Tytler
        Steve Tytler says:

        I was going to post before the open that miners were a “sell” (down trend) on my 15 chart but I was busy. 30 minutes into trading they are STILL a “sell” so this could be another day like last Friday where miners keep dropping until late in the day. If I have time, I will post if/when miners flip back to a “buy” on my 15 min chart today, like I did last Friday for JNUG.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Appreciate you sharing your ideas, thanks Steve. Just curious, When you say MINERS are in a 15 minute down trend, are you looking at a handful or GDX & GDXJ? Thanks.

          • Steve Tytler
            Steve Tytler says:

            I just look at GDXJ/JNUG primarily, sorry I should have clarified that. I primarily trade the ETF’s . I have my own charting system that is combination of moving averages, TSI, RSI and other readings. It’s part mechanical, part “feel” I may post here from time to time. Check your own charts and make your own trading decisions, I’m just adding adding food for thought.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            It was good comment – I just wanted to look up the trending on the 15 minute charts, but I wasn’t sure which miners. GDX / GDXJ – works for me.
            Thx

  7. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    So I looked at URRE and a few other Uranium stocks. I just know that someone wants to ask me where to sell. It’s kind of that battle between greed and fear. Greed tells you to hang on, it just keeps going higher. fear tells you it is too extended and you’re going to lose on a gap down soon. Also these could run up and bull flag for weeks and then you have a hard time getting back in.

    My answer is that you have choices:

    1. Sell some to lock in gains, let some ride?
    2. Sell it all and be happy you took the trade for 60% in 2 days? Buy the next dip.
    3. Hold on and see wait it does based on that wkly chart and that base.

    If you choose 3, you would do yourself a favor and look at the chart of NAK in August through Oct ( boring but worth the wait)
    Or look at MTL in September – Steady consolidation that allowed moving averages to catch up.

    Or look at a 1 yr of WRN – Painfully long consolidation after the June 2016 run higher.

    These are not easy decisions in trading, but be thankful for the opportunity to have such a dilemma 🙂

  8. Dave
    Dave says:

    Looking at GDX, it seems that we are breaking the uptrend line on this daily cycle. We still have the 10SMA beneath us, so it’s not a confirmed swing high, right? What are the chances that this is the beginning of the drop into a DCL, or could this be an HCL that reverses to put in a new, more right translated high before dropping into a DCL around inauguration?

  10. Thomas Yarbrough
    Thomas Yarbrough says:

    Uranium production cuts funny for the news follows the charts. Also dont forget LEU it still looks bullish to me

  11. Thomas Yarbrough
    Thomas Yarbrough says:

    I have a feeling URRE goes to 20$ these reverse split low floaters are where its at right now

  15. Maria
    Maria says:

    peeps ask me quite a bit what i am doing w/ my candles when i overlay them .. and it just dawned on me this am while explaining it to a friend …. by looking at past moves (where i was likely shaken out lol) it helps calm my nerves and says to me ‘yo maria… look.. here is where u were shaken out last time on that impulse wave up” … ;o)

    take GDX – last two impulse moves up on gdx … 4/1 and 5/25
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/2TiGryGE/

      • Erik Sven
        Erik Sven says:

        I agree with this, but I realized that I’m not good at exiting trades without moving up stops. If you’re good at it and got cute, that’s something else… but when you haven’t got the jedi eye yet, gotta have a system (maybe?). *bort*

    • Steve Tytler
      Steve Tytler says:

      I should mention that obviously a 15 min chart is very volatile, so it can flip “sell” then “buy” and back to “sell” within an hour. I use it primarily to look for entry points on days when I want to add. GDXJ/JNUG are you now getting close to a “sell” again, but still a “buy” at this point. Also “buy” and “sell” is my shorthand for an up or down intraday trend. So check your own charts and make your own trades. I’m posting for entertainment purposes only, please no wagering. LOL

  20. Ann
    Ann says:

    Trump not mentioning Nukes will probably start the pullback in uranium stocks. No worries, he’ll tweet something scary again eventually

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I like the way you examine your charts 🙂

      It could be ( But that doesn’t necessarily mean a crash down will come. Keep in mind that a H&S on a 5 minute could fulfill to the downside in an hour or so), and then price could consolidate sideways – keep dropping – or go even higher over time. It is a way to get out though…selling the right shoulder ( or partial) just in case

      Good eye, Ann!

  24. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    So far so good on the intraday reversal in miners, GDXJ/JNUG remain a pretty strong “buy” (up) signal on my 15 min chart. I added more JNUG to all accounts on the dip this morning starting around $8 and bot more between $8.10 to $8.20. Sorry I didn’t post in real time but I tried to give a heads up that my signal had flipped to “buy” shortly after 8:30 AM PT. I’m pretty much “all in” on miners now. This was just “topping off” some accounts. Good trading to all! Gotta get back to work.

  25. Erik Sven
    Erik Sven says:

    Sold MUX. Might sell CDE too. Hmm… Switched NAK to trailing stop. Wish I had some URRE like alz youz ninjas.

  26. Edward Bernhart
    Edward Bernhart says:

    Don’t know about the rest of you, but I get the distinct impression that our small miners are being acquired by stealth so as not to run up the price of GDXJ and drive all the prices up before they have been accumulated by strong hands. AUMN is case in point this morning.

      • Edward Bernhart
        Edward Bernhart says:

        After 12/20/16 it has been dead in the water due to the increase of $5 million in shares. It going to take a lot of time to absorb all this extra and be placed in strong hands. Hope I’ve got the patience.

    • nancytheartist
      nancytheartist says:

      I completely agree…they are playing with the price of gold and accumulating…they will let it run when they are ready…but it does seem like it is getting harder to manipulate.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Yes, today’s move in gold was all USD which, for today, at least, was all headline news. Not sure if there is quite as much we can learn from it bc of that. BUT, great to have it roll over. I was worried when it shot up to almost 103 this morning, that would be a problem!

  28. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    MINERS charts reversed back to higher. They are having trouble selling it down and as EDWARD mentioned in his post, it could be selling to accumulate.

    And OIL – UCO & USO look like reversals at the 50sma area.

    And GOLD near $1200.

    Great markets, I think I will go for a walk. 🙂 ( Added to MTL and did sell partial on URRE in the $3.50 area, just in case it stalls for a while, staying in it in case it gets stupid on the upside )

    • BayTrader
      BayTrader says:

      Very Nice Jeff – In at 1.58 for me out 225.. Shaking my head every way possible about the 3.94 run….

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Or you could have missed the entire run like I did bc your job expects you to “work” during the day instead of trading. Sheesh!!

  31. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    UUUU complete retrace back to start of day….just got back to computer….I didn’t have any uranium stocks…maybe now good time to get in or still going down?

  32. Carlnetscouts
    Carlnetscouts says:

    Getting some good volume coming in today – JUNG over 66m now. NEM over 8m. Some of the smaller stocks seem to be getting a lot of action.

  33. Evan
    Evan says:

    Hi Alex, hi all. I’m fairly new here and haven’t posted much yet but, like I said in a previous post, I love the community feel of this site and check in several times a day. Alex, just wanted to thank you for the URRE suggestion and Ann for pointing out the 5 min chart. Just sold half for +96% (in 1.71 out 3.38). Tammie, thanks again for the MJ summary the other day. I’m looking at moving into UUUU now, but like you haven’t decided yet. Looks like it just about filled the gap from Sept. Does anybody have any thoughts on this one?

    • Tammie
      Tammie says:

      Yeah, I just walked away for a few minutes and back now…now it’s up .08…..wondering if I should have grabbed it when it went to up .04….watching it…just…not ….sure…?

  35. littletimeleft
    littletimeleft says:

    NAK news out tonight:

    Northern Dynasty Minerals announces a $25 mln bought dealannounces that it has entered into an agreement dated January 11, 2017 with Cantor Fitzgerald Canada Corporation, TD Securities Inc. and BMO Capital Markets, as co-lead underwriters and joint bookrunners, on behalf of themselves and a syndicate of underwriters to purchase, on a bought deal basis, 13,520,000 common shares of the Company at the price of US$1.85 per Offered Share (the “Issue Price”) for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately US$25.0 million.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Thanks LTL

      Funny, I just tried to trade it in after hrs and the bid / ask is still in the 1.95 area ( I didnt want to trade it and didnt, I was just looking at where it is at since the offering is $1,85) . It should drop down to that offering price tomorrow.

      When I read this story I actually find it encouraging, though it is a temporary bummer. They could have done this offering at $1.35 and raised a ton of money too, but Cantor was WILLING to pay where NAK traded last week ( This deal would have been in discussion last week I would imagine – so they were willing to pay current prices, when so many people are complaining that NAK doesn’t make any money yet? ).

      I think that this endorses the ‘value’ of NAK at current prices. They bought a TON of shares, and I’m sure they are planning on price going higher in time.

      • nancytheartist
        nancytheartist says:

        a litle more data:
        Northern Dynasty Minerals (NYSEMKT:NAK) -9% AH after announcing a $25M bought deal purchase of 13.5M common shares at US$1.85 each, with an underwriters option to purchase up to an additional ~2M shares.

        NAK says it plans to use the proceeds to address the EPA’s regulatory action against the Pebble Project; prepare the project for the initiation of federal and state permitting; environmental monitoring, engineering and environmental studies related to the project; among other corporate purposes.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Yeah maybe good long term but negative short term for current traders. This has been pretty common for my holdings recently!

    • Carlnetscouts
      Carlnetscouts says:

      Oh well – will get hit tomorrow probably back to the $1.85 offering price. Showing a bid/ask of $1.91/$1,93 now down .20. Maybe good for an add soon. Alex what do you think?

    • Tammie
      Tammie says:

      I see the after hours price has dropped by .20…..taking it down to $1.91….the bought deal offering is for price of $1.85….so maybe it won’t fall much further…? I started to get back in it today, glad I waited now.

  36. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    CF – with your update on Oil, you have any thoughts on ORIG? Ive been holding since 1.56 and fought tooth and nail not to sell at 2.85… the 50sma is crossing the 200 on the daily and its been moving sideways a bit.

  38. Cason
    Cason says:

    Updated cycle counts:
    GDXJ is on day 15 with a high on day 12
    GDX is on day 15 with a high on day 11
    GLD is on day 18 with a high today on day 18

    CF, any thoughts on L/R translated. Gold seems near guaranteed to be R translated but potentially unlikely GDX/J without a new high in the next few days? GDX chart looks like a bullflag to me, though. I would have loved to have ended the day higher once the $$ dropped allowing gold some room to run, but that did not end up being the case (though this is WAY better than where we were early morning!!). Any thoughts?

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