FED WEDNESDAY IS CLOSE

/137 Comments/in /by

Let’s discuss Monday and keep in mind that we are closing in on the FOMC meeting Wednesday.

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SPX FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT – After the break out the VIX was below 11!  I expected that we could get a drop and not a continuation higher for now.

I posted this in the comments section near 11 a.m.,  the VIX was popping and the markets were dropping.  This looked like the markets could be rolling over going into the Fed Meeting.

SPX END OF THE DAY –  Then the markets reversed and put in a pretty big reversal candle. It recovered back to the consolidation highs, but it was still down 14 points. The jury is still out, but anyone that jumped in long at the break out or short as the day sold off have both been schooled a bit. The school of volatility.

The VIX – It was very low near 10.50 last Friday and Monday it did pop nicely. Is it done? It has moved to the 200sma in the past, so Tuesday may give the markets a bit more downside.  Either way, I am not in this trade.

 

 

USD – From the weekend report, we are due for a dcl. Day 32 may have been it.

USD – The Dollar is having trouble bouncing here . In December it Popped on Fed Wednesday and Thursday and then rolled over. I am starting to wonder if we will see that again.

 

WTIC – Oil is hinting at weakness and some energy stocks dropped Monday. I expected a pop higher before dropping, because I thought we were somewhat early in a daily cycle, but that MACD is weakening as a cautionary note…

WTIC – I expected a Pop before a drop, and that upper blue line was a target that I expected. I’ll keep an eye on it going forward, we are right in the middle of a consolidation really.

XLE – At 10a.m. the XLE broke down and I pointed this out in the comments section. It closed a bit lower at 72.87 and the MACD and a few other areas are starting to look weak.   Are these stocks leading the way? They have in the past.

 

GOLD –  No real change from the weekend report. This is Mondays action and it stalled at the 10sma ( 1202).  I am watching that area, but we are still pre-fed and anything can happen Wednesday and Thursday.

GOLD AGAIN – We had a doji Monday. Notice the 8 ema on the way higher.  We are almost breaking back above it.

Reminder charts –  These  were from the weekend report

GDX – Friday we might have seen a swing low. No confirmation and Fed Wednesday is ahead.

 

I JUST WANTED TO POINT THIS OUT IN CASE WE GET A QUICK DROP AFTER THE FED WEDNESDAY ANNOUNCEMENT. IF GDX DROPS – We had a 2 day false drop on Dec 14th, THE DAY OF AND THE DAY AFTER THE FED –  And then the lows were in.  Could it happen again this week? It might look like this.

We are pre-fed, what can I say? These are the charts, I am bullish Gold, Silver, and Miners longer term.  We are looking for a dcl, and might get a dip after the Fed meeting, but I haven’t been selling and the wiggles are not scaring me.  Enjoy your Tuesday trading.

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~ALEX

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THM dropped on Monday and I was asked, ” THM sold off today, did you sell?”  Let me answer that, “No”. I didn’t buy it as a short term day trade, I bought it for the next run higher, and at this point it remains above my buy point.

 

THM Chart #1 – This is where I recommended THM. It crawled along the 50sma after breaking above it.

THM Chart #2 – THEN it popped and started to possibly flag. Looks good.

THM Chart #3– I showed the BIG PICTURE. We made good money on THM in the spring of last year and this could have great upside potential if we remain in a bull market.

 

THM Chart #4 – DID I SELL IT, because it dropped today?  I accumulated it at the 50sma for the next run higher. Monday it dropped to the 10sma and basically back tested the break out of the inverse H&S. I am not selling the wiggles.  In fact, it can drop to the 50sma on Fed Day too, and I still  will not sell it.

THM Chart #5 – ANOTHER VIEW- It can drop further and there is no damage to this uptrend.

LGCY –  Energy concerned me a bit today, and  LGCY dropped too.  It landed on the trend line and 50sma and bounced, so it remains in this uptrend and I’m still in this trade.

137 replies
  1. deshy
    deshy says:

    Alex, thx for the ‘calm’ report! GC trying to get above the 8/10ma this am. Wondering if it’s trying to get some space between the 8/10ma only to have a good plunge back down post-FED surprise hike and shake the bulls and get bears lathered up (and then bounce off the ma)? Leaves both confused and in the ‘DUST’? Just seems like the most painful thing that can happen to everyone right now…

  2. Bill
    Bill says:

    The Trump administration just fired the first shot in the US-European currency, and thus trade, wars when Trump’s top trade advisor Peter Navarro accused Germany of using a “grossly undervalued” euro to “exploit the US and its EU partners”, the FT reported noting the comments are “likely to trigger alarm in Europe’s largest economy.” News of the statement sent the EURUSD surging and the dollar tumbling to fresh 2 month lows.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-31/euro-surges-after-trump-trade-advisor-accuses-germany-using-grossly-undervalued-curr

  7. Curtis
    Curtis says:

    Hi Alex..

    With Silver making new highs…do you think that was a half cycle we left behind…only to roll over, to starting a decline to a DCL either after FED or unemployment friday?
    thx

  8. Ken
    Ken says:

    Coffee (JO)
    Moving Stop to the PSAR 20.88.
    Currently in a wave 2 correction, hard to say how deep it will be….at the 38% Fib this morning.

  9. Crawdaddy
    Crawdaddy says:

    Curtis,while this is not my primary view, it is in my opinion a possibility. The absence of a clear half cycle low until

    perhaps here, plus it being an only 3 day dip instead of a week bears watching.

  10. Glmus
    Glmus says:

    RIC looks great. Golds are up nicely, but not wildly – JNUG only up 7%. Is this a first hour fooler rally? I would like to see JNUG up 10% by the end of the first hour and staying up thereafter.

    • Glmus
      Glmus says:

      Another observation. GDX is up more than GDXJ. Could it be that bigger money is moving into the bigger stocks? Don’t know, but interesting. I have the buck on a new daily sell and gold/silver on daily buys. Another good sign. My acct is all green, up about 2.5%, between GDX and GDXJ. I am still concerned about what the rest of the day brings. JNUG now only up 6%. Should be up 10% IMHO.

      • Bill
        Bill says:

        Agree, I noticed that the miners aren’t really buying this rally in GOLD. Time will tell. Going to be a volatile week.

        • Glmus
          Glmus says:

          We are past the first hour and my acct is holding up and all green. JNUG is still up only 6.4%. I will be a happy camper to end the day up 2.8+%, but I still would like to see JNUG at 10+% to call it a great rally.

          • Glmus
            Glmus says:

            I hate to sound like a broken record, but JNUG is still only around +6.6%. I would like to see 10%. My acct, golds/silvers,TLT, is all green and up to +3% which is nice.

          • Glmus
            Glmus says:

            Just got back from lunch. Looks about the same although JNUG is at 6%. In an hour or so, maybe we will get a pullback?

          • Glmus
            Glmus says:

            Just noticed that although I am still all green, I have dropped to +2.3% up. JNUG is down to +5.1%. Maybe the pullback I mentioned above has come early.

          • Glmus
            Glmus says:

            Well, we got a nice rally very near the end. JNUG finished up 7.8% – nice, but still not 10. I finished up 3% between GDX and GDXJ) which is fine. Have a great evening and may the Fed be good to us.

    • dsaulw
      dsaulw says:

      Dollar made new low, but gold didn’t make new high. In my opinion, we are going to have to wait to see what happens with the stock market, whether this is just a short-term pullback or part of a larger correction. If it is the latter, we should see a bigger move in gold, since it has been trading inversely with the stock market lately.

        • ray
          ray says:

          I actually would never do it either, however TMF is 3X etf which is ok making it worthwhile
          the COT’s are great for TLT, Jap Yen, and gold
          So that should be good the next couple of weeks

          • RAY
            RAY says:

            what i meant is that TLT is indeed a slow mover, so the profit might not be great
            tmf makes it more worthwhile as it’s a 3 x etf
            actually it’s the first time ever i m investing in bonds – the main and only reason i m doing it now is because of the COT s

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Calls. You can play TLT calls bc the implied volatility greatly lowers the time premium.

        I know. You don’t trade options. Maybe one day. And you are now armed with the information when you need it!

    • Glmus
      Glmus says:

      Thanks, Ken. I have TLT on an daily buy, but not on a weekly buy yet. TLT should move with gold for the near future. Bill, the advantage of playing TLT is that the moves are more serene. If you have enough cash and good timing, you can bet more with less stress. 🙂

        • MariaVacationTrader
          MariaVacationTrader says:

          becuz……………. he is …… Bond………………………………………… Jammmmmes Bond ……………………..

          • MariaVacationTrader
            MariaVacationTrader says:

            *and his ‘tranches’ are the size of the Titanic…. slowwwwwwwwwwww moverssssss

            *lmao

          • MariaVacationTrader
            MariaVacationTrader says:

            easy big guy… ;o) im just finishing lubing up and heading O..U..T. so ill be out of your hair…
            doing my do diligence w/ the sunscreen…mommys cheeks got a litttle pink yesterday and i dont mean … well .. nevermind ;o)

            #ShakenNotStirred

          • Ken
            Ken says:

            Wear that new hat and shades of yours…..looking good !!
            Enjoy the sun and waves MVT. I could use a little sunshine ……

    • Cory Fale
      Cory Fale says:

      daily chart still looks healthy to me, seems to be an orderly pullback the same as it has after breaching the upper Bollinger band for the past 2 months. Let me know if I am not seeing something and should be more concerned.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Right! Same that I have for gold. Question- what degree of waves are you tracking here? Could this be minor 3 of intermediate 1 (of primary 3, cycle 5)? iii (1) leaves us a lot more room to the upside, doesn’t feel like iii (3) yet.

      Concurrance that Primary 2 should have just ended. In that case primary 3 should rip, and for some time. Still in intermediate would line up better with the current sentiment, imo.

  18. Ann
    Ann says:

    Just wanted to mention this as I did not see it posted, but last week NAK announced that the Trump administration would approve their permits, the stock hit a high on that news of 3.45 the following day. The article also mentioned that the permit process takes 4 years!! So, I sold most of my NAK, down to 1/4 position. It may keep going as it technically still hasn’t broken, but that gave me some pause as I doubt Trump will be in office 4 years from now and they may never even get to start mining if the next administration prevents it! Either way, 4 years should give ample opportunity to buy dips, as they’ll need to raise cash, etc. It may get bought so there’s always upside surprise as well but I guess I thought it might slow its roll : ). I really hesitate mentioning a stock because I always jinx it when I do, but VITFF is a Canadian mining co that has all its permits and is ready to go with no controversy such as NAK has with environmental issues. It has started to act well and I don’t see it mentioned a lot. Do your own due diligence of course! Good luck everyone : )

    • Glmus
      Glmus says:

      Great piece Ann, thanks. I don’t buy and hold anything. Currently, NAK is on a pullback. There is a nearby double bottom on the 2 hour chart at 2.75. I would be concerned if that breaks. It is on a daily sell for me currently.

    • Edward Bernhart
      Edward Bernhart says:

      Of course, Ann, another way to look at it is that it used to take four years under a previous administration’s EPA. And I wouldn’t bet that Trump will not be in office through four years.

    • Cory Fale
      Cory Fale says:

      I will sell when it quits respecting the daily chart Bollinger bands (2stds,20sma)(pull back and consolidate after breaching the upper band to the 20 SMA and then move to pierce the upper band again, rinse wash and repeat). When it closes convincingly through the 20 SMA I’m out, and the weekly chart does look extended. But as a story and speculation stock at the moment with unfathomable real world riches, there are so many more headlines that can lead to explosive upside over the next 4 years (Pruitt confirmation, Pruitt mentions NAK, permitting process begins, infrastructure separate of Mining begins being built, NAK partnership, ect.) That I’ll hang tough with my 20 SMA plan. I could trade the swings, but I cant predict the headline timing. That’s my plan anyway.

  19. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    TAMMIE – Sorry for the late reply, I just saw your question on yesterdays post.

    CNBX – yes, it very much looks like it wants to break out & run higher, but with this sector there is added risk ( unknowns) so take it as simply a ‘chart read’. The chart is quite bullish.

    • Tammie
      Tammie says:

      Yeah, started to get it this morning when it was up 3 cents…but had to go to a meeting…came back…boom! I’ll just have to find another that looks like it’s gonna pop and not delay next time 🙂

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        It was around .84 when I saw that it had the volume that it needed, and the set up on intraday charts was good too. When I wrote this to you, it was only .84- .85 .

        Believe it or not, The set up is one that makes me think ( Barring any bad news) it wants to go back to prior highs over time, Just about a double from here.

    • Conrad
      Conrad says:

      Recapitalization announcement by BAA today not going down well with investors. I bought last Aug for long term hold and they are way way into red. What does future hold? would love to hear other’s view.

        • Conrad
          Conrad says:

          This is on Marketwatch: The Company decided to delist its common shares in light of its proposed change of business focus from mineral exploration to an investment company strategy as publicly stated on November 16, 2016, and after discussions with the NYSE Mkt. The Company’s common shares will continue to be registered with the SEC under Section 12(g) of the Exchange Act and, therefore, the Company will continue to be subject to the SEC reporting requirements pursuant to Sections 13(a) and 15(d) of the Exchange Act.

      • nancytheartist
        nancytheartist says:

        Dog for me too. Red. Very red. And I compounded it by adding more shares in Aug to get my cost basis down.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Would you like a new perspective? : ) I’m NOT yelling buy it, or if you own it, I’m not saying “Don’t sell it” if you want to free up more cash before Fed Wed, but especially …Read #2

      I own it and I understand what you mean, when Gold takes off I also would expect it to be up a lot more than 2% today.
      Here is the way I am looking at it
      1. Needs to get back over that 50sma to possibly attract more buyers
      2. ( You wont believe this) TRX from the Dec 2016 lows to Jan 2017 highs ran up 60% , and is now consolidating those gains.
      3. The BIG picture chart is actually a great set up .

      I’ll put this in the next report- I’m not stomping my feet saying that everyone should buy it, but I will show why I am holding it.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      TRX sucks!!! They have completely sat out the entire move. I should dump but I’m buried. My only really red holding!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I personally think the chart is good, but there is a lot more to the pharma sector and I always do more due diligence if I am going to even take a trade. I have bought pharma or biotech stocks with good charts and been slapped around due to the FDA or Failing a trial, failing a test of some sort.

      Personally – I would look at that 2 yr wkly chart and find out what happened in Dec 2015 – see if that has been resolved.

  23. kathleenchow
    kathleenchow says:

    Surprising that FCX (copper) doing so well, but WRN sitting in the mud. I’ve got both and thinking maybe WRN wants to double bottom before running.

    • Steve Tytler
      Steve Tytler says:

      If it makes you feel any better, gold is a “buy” (UP trend) on my daily chart. I use moving averages, TSI and other signals. I don’t use cycles. And, of course, all bets could be off after the Fed “news.”

        • Tammie
          Tammie says:

          Yeah, seems I remember it was in your report, probably why it ended up in my watch list….:) As you say, there is always another trade….I have several others in this sector – I need one of them to go up like this one did today!! I read the news on them every day to try and keep up with the latest, look at their charts every night for possibilities – I just should have jumped in when I saw that pattern that looked so good instead of leaving for my meeting!

          • Tammie
            Tammie says:

            I was watching that one today…but….very light volume…so staying away. What do you think of PURA chart now? I have some sitting at a loss….but I have a side note to get more at some point (something I was seeing at the time I was looking at it was making me think it would be good…?)…..the 3 and 6 month charts look good (?)……but I don’t like the rounded look on the 10 day….

          • Tammie
            Tammie says:

            Actually, several of these I’m looking at have that “rounded” look…and then they pop…..for some reason to me it looks like inverted cup so makes me cautious at first glance…

          • Tammie
            Tammie says:

            Well shoot. Keeping close eye on it since I have some in trading acct at a loss….been trying to pop in and out and not let things get to a loss at all……kept thinking this would drag out of the hole…

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            It just looks quite extended above the 50sma from that last run. It could go sideways and consolidate, but it is pretty extended. Hopefully I’m wrong .

          • Tammie
            Tammie says:

            LXRA…does it look like it wants to pop to the former high from back in 2014? It’s been going down/consolidating….it almost got there on 1/10 but fell slightly short and has been consolidating since then…..I want to get this for my trading account before it pops up there – 🙂 🙂 This company has teas and a couple of protein bars….

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            I don’t get a clear read on the chart short term. It already popped to the 2014 highs ( It doesn’t really have to hit it to the penny) . Looks like it may be extended and needs to consolidate.

          • Tammie
            Tammie says:

            Well shoot, I tried to make a correction and lost the whole thing….ok….I was asking if you think LXRP looks like it wants to go to the former high it was in 2014? It almost made it there on 1/10 but fell a little short of it…….then it fell some……has been consolidating since then….I have this in a retirement acct but want to get it in my trading acct again before the pop up – what do you think of that chart? 🙂

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            You DEFINITELY have put in a lot of time for research on these.
            When you mentioned PURA – I hadn’t even heard of that one, and I had a list of about 40.

            What a run that had.

            I was watching CVSI since you asked, and today it broke the lower trend line, but I’m still keeping an eye on it .

          • Tammie
            Tammie says:

            Yeah….I sold my CVSI yesterday in my trading account because I didn’t like the looks of it…..I still have it in my retirement acct for longer term hold to see where it might go..

        • Tammie
          Tammie says:

          CBIS…..someone bought 323k shares after hours – I think chart looks good….they sold out of their inhalers they just released so are ramping up more production…I have this in both accounts – at a slight loss, I think I’ll be getting more in the morning….I think it’s going up…maybe…:)

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          The thing that I like about this is that it was at 70 cents a month ago on this chart and didn’t really do too much when I posted it. It went sideways an consolidated some more.

          You asked about it RIGHT BEFORE it popped higher. I had lost track of it for a while.

          It was a good catch, I wish you bought it yesterday when you asked.

  30. Cason
    Cason says:

    UAA. Oh My!!!

    Remember to check your earnings folks!! Also, not just Fed Wed, we also have Jobs Report this Friday. Time to stay frosty!

  31. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    Alex….what you think of chart of GBLX? 3 month/6 month looks great…bull flag ready to pop? Deja vu…..I was doing this last night…on CNBX….:)

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Hey so I sat out this whole Mary Jane stampede due to all of the comments about how volatility and potentially risky it was. Looks like I should have just plugged my nose and waded in. You seem to be REALLY into the sector based on your research and insightful comments. Too late to jump in? Have the fundamentals helped much or have you been able to trade straight off charts? Where should I start? Thanks!

      • Tammie
        Tammie says:

        No, not too late in my opinion…just getting started! I think the medical marijuana sector is going to be hopping…up, down, up, down – for quite a while! I do weigh heavy on the charts, but I try and pick ones that actually seem to have things going on – either a product or a good test result, something. I am trying to stick mainly to ones that would seem beneficial to people, although I do have some of the ones with infused teas and beverages (not that those might not be beneficial…just not likely very medicinal :)) The list of ones I am currently watching/or have some of: CBIS, LXRP, EDXC, RMHB, GBLX, PURA, CVSI, MCOA, SRNA…..I don’t have SRNA, GBLX, MCOA right now….but looking to get SRNA in the morning depending on how things look…maybe some more EDXC and CBIS. I have several in my retirement acct I am letting sit…..what I buy for my trading acct. I am trying to pop in and out of once I have a profit….I missed CNBX today big time even though I studied it last night with intention of getting this morning….I didn’t follow through….but the rest of the week I’ll have more time to pay attention….:) Sorry for the long rant 🙂

        • Hawaiifive0
          Hawaiifive0 says:

          Tammie, do you have a rationale for holding some versus trading others. Currently, I’m planning on just holding. So far I have CNAB, CBIS, EDXC, MCOA and RMHB.

          • Tammie
            Tammie says:

            Yes….I am trying to make a little money in my trading account….to pull out and use. I don’t care if I have to pay short term gains taxes on it…..it’s income. In my IRA account I am letting them sit to see if they will take off and grow over time. I do keep an eye on those in the IRA acct and if it looks like they are going to be duds I will cut them loose (I read the news on them, etc.). I usually have the same in both accounts….it’s just that if it pops up and has a gain…I’ll sell the one in my trading acct to get the money out and keep the one in my IRA……kind of like selling partial and holding the rest….but in different accounts. 🙂 Then if the one I sold goes down and consolidates and looks good again…..I will get it again for the trading acct and do it all over again….at least….it sounds good in theory….hahahaha 🙂

          • Hawaiifive0
            Hawaiifive0 says:

            With MJ stocks, I hold only what I can afford to loose. Thus far one has doubled, another is up about 40% and the rest are about break even Not a big deal though as I’m play with somewhere between 500 and 1000 bucks.

          • Tammie
            Tammie says:

            Yeah, most of the ones I get are $500-1000….I started with just $350 and have worked my way up a bit 🙂

          • Hawaiifive0
            Hawaiifive0 says:

            Yes, I think that’s the rational way to do it. But I’m sorely tempted to drop 10,000 in just to seen what would happen. Bad idea!

          • Tammie
            Tammie says:

            haha! Yes, I’m tempted to do that too!! Just once…?!!? hahaha…maybe not…maybe so….maybe not….

        • Cason
          Cason says:

          That was great, thank for sharing. I’ll build a chart watchlist from this.

          Yeah, I saw the dialogue with CF. You’ll get the next one! A lot of times I skip on the riskiest ones and then bang my head when CF Gets it right and it pops before I buy. That is why I was so excited with NAK when I nailed that one (finally)!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      pretty good, may be ready. MCOA kind of did that and didnt pop again yet, it went sideways – but GBLX dis pop and flag back to the 10sma. Also a reversal candle, so it could be ready

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