1-12-2017 Reach For The Stars

We are back in a Traders Paradise, as many of our stock picks are lifting off  and some  are just plain old blasting off. Let’s do a market review and look at a few more bullish set ups.

.

SPX – Wednesdays reversal looks bullish, and after this long consolidation, we may have a mini inverse H&S followed by a break out higher. The HUGE fly in the ointment is that we have the VIX near 11.

What does the VIX at 11.30 mean? I’ll show you …

NOTE*  I want to release this before 6:30 a.m. and will not have time to proof read, so please excuse any possible typos that I left behind, thanks!

DOW – I now think that we could  see DOW 20,000 this week, but will the rally be a fake out?  Again, this is a bullish set up too, but that VIX  at 11.30 is concerning.

The VIX – The VIX has repeatedly bottomed at 11.30, 11.80, 11.95 , etc.  It dropped to the 10 area for only 1 period of time on a weekly chart in the last 5 years, as far as I can see. Can this drop to 10?  Obviously yes, but that would indicate that he coming rally, if we get one, may be DOW 20,000 and shortly after, a drop.

USD – A doji candle as the dollar continues its drop into a dcl. The USD should drop a bit more, I’ll discuss how that could help Gold in a minute.

XJY – The yen looks to be bottoming and bullish too. This is bullish for Gold. Can the Yen make it to the 50sma?

WTIC – I expected OIL to drop to the 50sma ( it still might), but it put in a pretty solid reversal on Wednesday. That MIGHT have been the Daily Cycle low (dcl).

GOLD,SILVER, & MINERS

.

GOLD – Gold actually broke above the 50sma and closed there. 🙂 A drop in the USD could push Gold even higher over the 50 sma, and then the dcl could be the back test as drawn in the report yesterday. A Wednesday Day 17 high is also bullish, Thursday is day 18.   Gold can also break 1200, and roll over as a quick break out / fake out. You may want to go back and read the report posted last week entitled “Do Not Get Too Cute”.  If Gold just keeps rising to complete this cup, many will get left behind, similar to Jan – march 2016.  At Chartfreak, we did NOT get left behind. 🙂

GOLD  From yesterdays report – This would be possibly  playing out if the USD dips a bit more,  now that Gold crossed the 50sma and could jump and then back test at the 50sma later.  THIS IS WHY I wrote my recent report entitled  “Don’t get too cute”.  Some may want to go back and re-read it. People are losing position and will struggle as to where to get back in.

SILVER – Close , but not yet. Watch the $16.91 area as resistance.

This was GDX at 10:45 a.m. – I was pointing out that even though GDX was dropping, it is a bullish pull back so far, possibly targeting the 38 or 50% level and the 50sma. I have had a few readers tell me that they sold every Miner position and that they do not like this dip. This is very bullish, not even 38% yet.

GDX – Then GDX reversed later that day and bounced off of the 10sma area.  ** Note : This could continue higher and if it finishes a cup in this first daily cycle, anyone that sold will have to buy higher in a handle. A sideways consolidation may be the dcl ( Bull flag).  Also we may break Gold 1200 and then fail, dropping into a dcl. We will have to wait and see, but I’m not selling out at this point.

A few Miners of interest

GSS – Breaking out and this was happening while Gold was down. This is forming a long frying pan and should go above $1 soon.

DRD – Riding the 10 sma, forming a possible bull flag this week.

I’ve pointed out the sneaky rise higher in GPL since the OCT & Nov Lows.

I tweeted this out Tuesday

More trade set ups

I showed this CLF break out in yesterdays report. Is it too late to take a trade when it jumps up 11%?  Not when I look at the big picture.

CLF WEEKLY –  The big picture.  For longer term investors, what is wrong with this set up? Nothing.

MTL WEEKLY – This is an excellent set up for longer term BUY & HOLD too

MTL DAILY – MTL sold off about 35 cents Wednesday and then recovered. I added to my position and I can see this either forming a handle, or just continuing higher.

MDR – I have a list of set ups that I’ve been watching, and this one broke Wednesday. It pretty much doubled in October and November and then consolidated those gains. It looks like it wants to try to run higher again after a reversal candle 3 days ago.

CLD – This one ran very strongly from June to November from $2 to $8! After a rapid high volume decline, it now may have double bottomed. I’d wait for a sign of strength first – a break of the blue downtrend line or even the 50sma. ( Watch list).

GGB – I was watching this one and didn’t think that it would break out above the blue line yet.  It certainly did on Wednesday. Look at how this ran in the spring and from Sept to Nov. It looks ready to go again.

Did you notice that many of these picks are breaking out of lows and just starting to form a cup?  When I recommended VALE & CLF for example, they had similar looking pull backs to some of the above. This was my Vale recommendation, for example.

VALE NOW-  To show you what we are looking for.  It forms a cup and can just keep going higher or add a handle.  Either way, you make money on the trade.

TECK – Recovery.

IT IS A TRADERS PARADISE,

AND A LONG TERM INVESTORS PARADISE TOO

So many set ups, so little Cash. Again, do not let the number of trade ideas frustrate you. We cannot buy them all, but I have a lot of traders that want a lot of choices in various sectors. Many have been doing well, some have been simply mind blowing  ( that Uranium sector has exploded, see URRE, UUUU, DNN, UEC, URG, etc). I buy a few and when they get extended, I take some profit and enter a new set up.  If that isn’t your style, look at the bigger picture weekly charts that I often include. MTL, WRN, NAK, X, AKS, CLF, VALE, etc have offered some nice opportunities for longer term investors too. Buying and holding various Miners for the first Daily cycle has been profitable too. I expect a second daily cycle to be even better.  I will have a very small report out Friday, since Monday the U.S. Markets are closed again.

Enjoy your Thursday trading, and thanks for being here at Chartfreak!

~ALEX

TMQ – On the watch list, I’ve been watching this daily and finally we are seeing volume swells and signs of life.  This was a copper company spun off from Nova Gold. It was called Nova Copper, but they changed the name to identify themselves as a ‘Metals” company, nit just copper.

TMQ WEEKLY – I owned this in the spring, and have been waiting for it to perk up when I saw  CLF, FCX, HBM, TGB, WRN, etc, but it has been stuck in this consolidation. I thought that it would run like TGB & WRN, maybe it will soon.