Nov 30 – Waiting For The Final Flush?

Yes, I’m talking about Gold again…

I’m starting with Gold tonight –

As I began writing the report tonight, I was gathering a chart of Gold and then FLUSH, Gold dropped straight down more than $10. If this recovers by the morning, that could be the final flush, and I say this because the Miners did not break their lows again today, while Gold sold off $15+ during open market hours.

.

GOLD – Seriously, this is Day 38 for Gold.  None of these Mini bounces qualify as a full cycle. Gold is stretched a lot further than I have seen Gold stretch in prior Bull market dips. On day 38 we should at least get a bounce to the 50sma soon.  Believe me, you are tired of hearing it, and I am tired of writing it, but these markets usually rally after a crash and cycle timing is very late.Even Bear markets find ICL’s and rally for 2 daily cycles.

GDX – If Gold recovers overnight, then tonight is a final flush, and the GDX chart will not even reflect the dip. If it gaps down, Both GOLD & MINERS should put in a low on the same day, rather than to continue out of sync. I see divergence and some miners have been holding up well despite all of Gold & Silvers selling.

I still hold GPL, AUMN, NAK, and I am ready to deploy cash (Again) on a good solid reversal. This has been a brutal bottoming process, but some Miners are still not really being overly when Gold & Silver sell off. If you own positions, I always say to honor your stops or at least keep mental stops and be ready to sell if something gets way out of the ordinary on Thursday.  I do hate to see anyone sell out at the lows though  🙁   I wanted to show possible buy set ups today, but Golds overnight flush ruined that idea. There will be time for that if we see signs of a true bottom.

.

SPX – a high volume reversal off of the highs usually leads to a dip. We are within timing for a 1/2 cycle low ( HCL).

USD – The USD is still acting bullishly, and the pause has been on a support area. When Gold dropped $10 in a heart beat tonight, the USD didn’t really move, so it wasn’t caused by a spike in the USD . Timing-wise, the USD is due for a dcl so it should continue to dip down or drift sideways.

From Wednesday mornings report.

WTIC – Oil made a HUGE 9% move today when OPEC discussed production cuts. Interestingly, this brought it right back to the trendline that it broke through on Oct 31 and back tested last week.  DID OPEC CHANGE THINGS, since we were expecting Oil to drop further with a failed daily cycle? We will know very soon.  Follow through above this trend line and especially new highs would be a good indication that OIL is recovering on the cut backs. This is only day 11 of a 30-50 day cycle, so this has a good amount of time to trade once it becomes clear which factor prevailed  ( The Failed daily cycles bear or OPECs supply cut bull). That was very strong move with strong volume, shorts were caught on the wrong side of that OPEC mtg.

These jumpy markets have just been kicking butt since the Trump Election and the various changes since then. It has been tough trading in many areas. 

WPX –  Please read the chart. Maybe this will be a bullish area to trade, we will know very soon, but these energy stocks look good.

Among other things, quite a bit of my analyses is based on sentiment and ‘timing’ using cycles. The ‘timing’ aspect is usually very helpful and consistent, and it gets us in right near the final lows when the normal timing for a cycle is running out. Not this time.  With this area in the Precious metals sector, we are seeing Gold just continue to defy traders and keeps flushing down a bit more and more.  Occasionally that happens, it is quite rare.  This almost has me believing that when it does start moving higher,  it could sling shot out of the lows and rip higher in a flurry of short cover.  In the meantime, it just sucks the life out of those ready to go long.  Traders are tired…tired of being worried about the next shoe to drop. This is when people give up, and often that is when a rally begins.  It is a devious market at critical times.

Some miners do seem to be resisting the drop, as shown in prior reports.  This is a ray of hope, because they usually get roasted when Gold drops $15. When Gold dropped $15 with the markets open on Wednesday, GDX did not break to new lows. HL, PAAS, GPL, AUMN, etc etc did not turn ugly.

HL pointed out yesterday

Today –  No big devastation

So yes,  it is frustrating and it seems like a big waste of time waiting for this trade to manifest itself.  I would say that if Gold keeps being pulled down and stretched lower over time,  there is a good chance that we get a sling shot out of the lows, starting with shorts covering and then buyers stepping in.  Just when everyone falls asleep and gives up on this sector for good, it should be ready to move higher.  I know, I almost doubt it myself  🙂  I am still holding my positions at this point.  I’m releasing this Wednesday night, lets see what Thurday has up it’s sleeves in Precious metals and Oil / Energy.

.

~ALEX

Gold trying to recover as I wrote the report.