DEC 19 – MORE STOCK PICKS

I wanted to share a couple of trade ideas that would be considered low risk , since a stop can be placed just below the purchase price.

NOTE:  I get requests from some of our more active traders for these types of set ups.  That does NOT mean that YOU have to trade these. Some have patiently been waiting for the lows in GOLD and waiting for  a cross above the 10sma in Gold to take some trades in Miners.  That is great and don’t allow boredom to draw you in to over-trading, if you are not a regular trader sitting in front of your screen during the day.  These are for ‘active traders’ that like to trade regularly or possibly even ‘longer term investors’ that have been looking for a buy & hold possibility, as you will see. This is not for everyone, but it has been requested by some readers here.

.

I want to discuss briefly the answer to a question that I was asked ,  ” Is it OK to just buy X or AKS and hold longer term?”  My opinion is that even if you are thinking of buying for the long term, you should start a list of candidates and then try to be patient and look for a better low risk entry. The steel stocks are extended, so I would expect that they will eventually pull back or go sideways. Many people think that they can just ride a pull back out, but it is not easy or beneficial if one buys high and rides a position lower. We usually have stops in place to avoid losses.

.

X -THIS IS NOT A LOW RISK BUY.  The steel stocks are running very well, but they are extended.  I put them on a watch list and just try to be patient, buying the dips. You will see on the following charts that these extended runs often do pull back.

CENX CHART #1 – CENX is pulling back now, but it may or may not be quite ready to take a position in yet. CENX has surged higher in November with the rest of the industrial metals and is now pulling back to what could be considered a buy zone for longer term traders though. Let’s zoom in.

CENX CHART #2 – You can see that it is close to support.  At $8.66, it is tagging the 50sma, but honestly it looks like it could drop to $8.00 as support too.  If I was thinking long term buy & hold, I’d take a partial in this area, especially if it drops further, and then watch it to possibly add later if it remains bullish.

FCX WEEKLY  – This looks like an inverse H&S forming on the weekly chart  ( big picture). I don’t like big 1 week drops like this, but let’s look at the daily.

FCX DAILY – The drop looks rather normal and is heading to the 50sma.  That 50sma is $1 lower so one might want to try to be patient. I would wait to add on a tag of the 50sma for ‘a trade set up’, but if you are a longer term Buy & Hold investor? Anywhere in this area as FCX drops a bit more is where I would take a partial position, and then consider where to add later.

Last week I mentioned WRN is a copper stock that has had a nice run, but upside potential looks promising.

WRN is pulling back now too. I bought it at the open Friday and may just make this a longer term hold, similar to what I did with NAK.

On Dec 9th I pointed out NADL, NOG, and PACD as stocks that I bought for a trade, while I was holding on to GPL, AUMN, NAK, and TRX. They all Popped and I sold them as ‘trades’.  Now they look like Buy opportunities again on a pull back.  Let’s review.

NADL DEC 9th as a buy.

Last Friday – I posted a number of Energy stocks as buy ideas, and NADL was one of them.  They remain valid in my opinion. I re-bought this Friday too. This doesn’t look like much of a move, but NADL went from $3 to almost $5 in 3 days.

DEC 9th – This was a buying opportunity. PACD popped to $7 from here and slowly sold off.

PACD NOW- PACD is back testing that break out and is a low risk buy.  The only problem is that it could dip to the 50sma too, so if I were buying this, I usually take a partial position and would add on a dip t the 50sma if it acted correctly.  I also might just put it on a watch list and see if it drops to the 50sma.

AREX WEEKLY DEC 9th –  I also pointed out the longer term picture on AREX. It was $3.47 and trying to break out higher, and I think that AREX has a lot of potential upside if it gets going.

AREX –  It is now $3.76 , but you can see that it still hasn’t broken out upside. It got to the September highs above $4.25 and sold off to the 20sma. This is tricky, because the MACD looks to be rolling over, but it is worth watching. It could easily turn higher, break out,  and then run higher. I ( a few of us here)  owned this in August and almost got a 100% move out of it, so it has been consolidating that strong run .

TGB CHART #1 – I have been pointing out the explosive move that comes from this type of set up. It then ran from $0.58 to $1.00 quickly. Is it going to pull back and offer an entry?

TGB CHART #1 – TGB actually pulled back quite a bit last week. That is usually a bit faster than I like to see , but here are a few ideas.

TGB CHART #2  – Possible bull flag?

TGB CGART #3 – It could drop to the break out area?

TGB CHART #4 – Longer term investors or short term traders can buy in the yellow area, probably anywhere below 70 cents. This just ran from about  40 cents to $1.00, so it can consolidate and go sideways for a while too.

This is an update on some of the Energy or Metals trade ideas already presented here from the end of November into December. Some readers are just waiting for the Precious Metals sector to find a low and turn higher, and that is fine. We must be so close to that point in time, the drift lower has been relentless.  The weekend report covered a lot of what my thinking is in that area.  For active traders, some of these trades have actually acted like hedges on some of the Miners that we are holding.   Again, these are just ‘trade set ups’ that may be lining up for traders and even longer term buy & hold investors looking for something in the industrial metals sector after the recent run up post election in the U.S.

Enjoy your Monday trading.

.

~ALEX

.

From Fridays report

WPX DEC 1st –  This is how long it can take for some of these set ups to get going .

WPX –  DEC 9th

WPX FRidays report –  Still waiting 🙂