Oct 31 – A Closer Look

We had a huge weekend report, and so what possibly could be said only 1 day later? Well, I have 14 charts in this report to help us to take a closer look at things, because this is a Fed Week.  To the charts…

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SPX – I want to say that there is no change from my expectations over the past several weeks. We didn’t go long or short, because these sideways markets can just waste time and chop up funds. We are due for a dcl ( possible ICL) , so I do expect a bit more of a drop to a new low, not a move higher yet.  We have Fed Wednesday ahead.

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USD – I’ve been expecting a dcl in the USD. Since this daily cycle is so extended in length, I cannot say how much time is left for it to drop.  It is right translated and due for a low.

WTIC – Oil is dipping down and is in the timing for  dcl. It often drops quickly into a dcl, but the timing is a tad early.  In September we got a dip, a bounce , and a dip. We could repeat that here if that support  line holds. I haven’t owned Energy stocks for weeks, I am focused on Miners and a possible ICL in that sector.

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GOLD , SILVER, and MINERS

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GOLD –  $1285.40 was the high on Friday. I’d like to see that high taken out this week to ensure a R.T. daily cycle.

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GLD –  Riding the 10sma, I like the increase of volume as it moves above this flat base. With the Fed Wed ahead of us, we could tag the 50sma and drop into a dcl, or we could just surge and run through it, and drop into a dcl in a week or so.

SILVER CHART #1– Riding along the 200sma and holding a long term trend line rather well. Is this a bear flag?  A week ago it may have looked like one, but this is also becoming too long and the volume and MACD do not look weak.

SILVER CHART #2–  A bullish resolve after the Fed Meeting could look like this. When Silver explodes higher, we’ve all seen how it moves. This would be a bit more likely than the next view.

SILVER CHART #3 – A short term negative would be a shake out after the Fed, below the 200sma & that uptrend line in the above chart, but holding the down trend line.  ( Less likely to me).

GDX  CHART #1–  GDX pushed above the 10sma today and is trying to break out of a 3 month downtrend. This set up looks bullish to me, and the MACD and RSI are lining up bullishly in my opinion. C’Mon Janet Yellen, You can do this  🙂

GDX CHART#2 – Back above the 200sma, now an important move that I would like to see is a higher high above the last 2 weeks prices. With the Fed Wednesday release , this can break out above the 50sma or temporarily stall there in to dcl.  A closer look brings us to…

NEM –  As a big component of GDX , it is good to see it in this bullish light. 

ABX –  Also a major component of the GDX  broke from its downtrend and also above the 50sma.  We are seeing Bullish moves behind the scenes.

NOW I WANT YOU TO SEE JUST A BIT MORE OF THE BULLISH SIDE.  CAN THE FED SAY OR DO ANYTHING TO CHANGE THIS?  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING HER TO CHANGE ANYTHING.

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IAG – I had been posting IAG for weeks. Here it was at $3.37

IAG –  IAG moved above $4 again today.  It remains bullish and broke out from its downtrend a week ago.

HL – When I was thinking that the ICL could be in place in early October, I looked at several Miners like HL. HL bounced off of $5 and if the ICL was in place, I drew that it could break out and back test this falling wedge.

HL – Imagine that, it is acting correctly. Now it is riding above the 50sma.

GSS – I pointed out this rounding bottom last week when GSS popped higher. At the end of last week when Miners dropped going into Friday, did GSS crash down?

GSS – GSS is higher today than it has been since July. Mondays volume was a bit light,  but this also could be at 2016 highs if we get an explosive move after the Fed.

BTG – Above the downtrend, the 50% RSI,  and above the 50sma.

Conclusion: So todays report gives some confidence to the idea that while many are in fear that the Precious Metals sector and Miners will break down soon, we can see some bullishness within.  We bought the lows in Early October expecting at least a dcl, but thinking that the recent  drop was steep enough and sentiment was bad enough for it to be an ICL.  Timing was also within the parameters. As we watch it play out and see what we have, I am seeing that with this sideways move that Gold and Silver are doing, areas still look more bullish than bearish. The lows have by no means been taken out, the Oct lows have held up for GDX and many Miners.

Ahead we have the Fed Mtg Wednesday. We do not expect any surprises at this point, so the recent lows should still hold and the bullishness that we reviewed today is likely smart money positioning for upside. If the ICL is in, any positions in this sector should be much higher weeks and months from now.

Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be very similar as we are Waiting for the Fed.  It may be bullish or it may be uneventful for Precious Metals, so my report for Wed morning should be quite a bit shorter. What I am writing in this report can be monitored Tuesday.  If anything big happens, I’ll mention it Wed, but right now I just expect more of the same going into the fed Wed and thus a short report. Thanks again for being here at Chartfreak!

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~ALEX

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While owning various Miners we have to be aware that Earnings reports are being released  in the coming weeks. If you own a basket of Miners, you should be aware of when the companies release their earnings and decide whether to hold through this period or not ( Core is just held through out a bull market).  I would expect most earnings to be improved and more bullish than last year at this time (with Golds Prices higher and a more favorable out look going forward), but there can always be surprises. Due diligence 🙂