Nov 2 – Fed Wednesday Again

  There is not going to be much new to discuss here until after the Fed on Thursday. We are in the middle or late in various daily cycles, but we can review how things are playing out so far. 

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SPX  Tuesdays report –  I was pointing out that I an expecting a drop

SPX –  We got the market drop, but then it reversed going into the close, so we have a reversal candle. With a Fed day Wednesday I wouldn’t put my trust in it yet.  I did expect a deeper drop.

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USD – I expected a drop into a DCL here too.

USD – We see that the drop started and I actually expect more downside.  If this is the case, then Gold would rally a bit more. The big question:  Will this happen immediately after the Fed minutes or later?  Only time will tell. I still expect the USD to drop further personally. 

WTIC – I pointed out this trend line Tuesday and with Oil dropping rapidly, it looked like it might not hold.

WTIC –  It has held so far.  Oil dropped right to the trend line and formed a doji candle ( a candle of indecision really) on high volume.  We had a large volume day, yet no big price spread. Selling could be complete on day 30, but on Wednesday the Oil inventory is released. Stay tuned.

WTIC WKLY

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GOLD – Lets keep this simple. This is bullish to me because Gold hit a new high on day 18. This does not look like a 3rd or 4th daily cycle with a high on day 18. That would indicate that we likely have an ICL. A move to the 50sma before the Fed would be a daily cycle high on day 19. (  EDIT: 6:30 a.m. Eastern time – We got that overnight)

GOLD –  Further confirmation of an ICL would be an overhead trendline break and a swing low on a weekly.  Look at the 1 week drop of Oct 1st. Gold has to move above 1323 for that additional confirmation, but I have many other ‘signs’ that I use to find the lows.  I called a possible ICL 4 weeks ago and a stop would have protected us if we had another daily cycle.  4 weeks higher and those lows have not been violated, yet it is still oversold . 

GDX – GDX tagged the 50sma. I knew that this could act as resistance, but if the USD has further to drop, this can break through. We may get a break out on Wednesday over the 50sma.

I am not just relying on 1 or 2 ‘grasping at straws’ ideas to encourage my readers to be invested in Miners. Past reports have been extensive and maybe they should be read again if some are still experiencing strong doubts. I’ve compared this low to other ICL activity, pointed out various set ups, etc.  Even yesterdays report had 8 or 9 charts pointing out the bullish set ups on Miners that build confidence that we’re seeing the lows.   Yes, they can sell off after a Fed Meeting, but the lows aren’t likely to be broken.   Lets do a small review.

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  Review: I have pointed out a good number of Miners that are well off of the lows, breaking above the downtrend and then back testing.  That takes time for all of that to happen, but people do not want to believe that this is good looking or bullish.

IAG – $3.25 to $4.25+ ( 25%) and no one really notices.

Again, a month ago I pointed out what I would expect of HL if the ICL were in place, and it is playing out perfectly.  Look for a ‘break out and back test’ was the bullish idea.

HL – This is the break out and back test. 

So you may want to go back to prior reports like this past weekend, last Friday, even yesterdays, and read what I said then about the many hints that the lows are in place. I still have people telling me that “this is just a trap”. Some say that “all of the E.W. experts  are calling for a final wave 5 down”. I still see a lot of negative sentiment and fear.  “Gold is really a bear flag on a wkly chart”. All of this while the lowest point was a Month ago and many Miners are set up bullishly. I think that the train is slowly leaving the station and in the past after catching the lows, my stocks have gone up 100% to 500 or 700%.  Now that the daily cycles are getting older, we will expect a daily cycle low in the not too distant future.  We’ll see how the Fed Day works out  ( A couple of ideas below) and when we drop into a daily cycle low, it should be a second strong buy. Future reports will cover that. Enjoy your Fed Wednesday of trading? 🙂

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~ALEX

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From yesterdays report.   Possibilities going into the Fed Mtg, but obviously there are a few differing possibilities.  We are in the middle or later part of our daily cycles.

GDX Chart 1– A break through the 50sma with the Fed Mtg, and a dcl back test maybe next week.

GDX CHART 2 – Rejected at the 50sma  ( like we saw Tuesday) and a drop into a dcl. The next daily cycle would break through the 50 sma and continue higher.