WEEKEND WRAP UP Oct 1

Our recent weeks of trading have had a lot of sideways chopping action.  My last report discussed how that was ending in Oil, and I think that the choppy action is about to end in the general markets too. Lets go to the charts.

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SPX – As price approaches an Apex we should see a nice break out and run. There is a lot of pressure built up in this consolidation. A break down could get ugly fast, but this leans bullishly at this point.

SPX WKLY – This looks similar to the 2011 sell off, break out and back test in 2012.

NOTE:  This is going to be a LONG report.  I usually release them on Sunday night or Monday morning, but I want to release it Saturday night, so I will not have time to proof read it.  Thank you kindly for ignoring any typos.  I thought that it would be good to release it earlier in the weekend,     but I am  going out tonight and running out of time.

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USD –  The USD has struggled under the 50 & 200sma for a while in this sideways action. It DID do a quick false break out higher in July and then gave it up.  I could see that happening again, sending Gold into an ICL, but that’s just guessing. Lets see the weekly chart…

USD WKLY –  I am bearish in the long term. 2015 highs, with a low in August 2015.  THOSE LOWS WERE BROKEN in the spring of 2016, and no new highs were made. I expect the spring lows to be broken too.  That is good for Precious Metals longer term.

WTIC – Break out and follow through as expected. Please read the chart.

Please notice that when OIL bottomed in 2008-2009,  it also had a sideways choppy period for weeks like we just experienced and then it ran strongly.

It even appeared to have a false break out & rolled over, but it just extended the sideways chop, so I am sharing this to show how tricky this sideways action can be.  We have that in Gold & Miners right now. I’m not expecting an easy buy, but I am expecting a nice run, despite the tricky choppy action. 🙂

XLE– The XLE is trying to break out on a weekly basis too. We’ve been discussing & buying energy stocks and looking for bullish set ups in their charts. More will form with pull backs along the way.

NATTY – 

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GOLD , SILVER, and MINERS

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GOLD–  I am expecting the dip into an ICL. A great buying opportunity should be coming soon. See the chart.

GOLD WKLY–  Read the chart please.

SILVER –  Read the chart please.

LETS LOOK AT MINERS

GDX– Read the chart please.

GDX – A back test of the 200MA  would be a drop into an ICL, IF it happened. TThsi weekly chart is getting oversold, that is good news.

GDX  WKLY with a drop into an ICL , Elliot Wave style. please read the chart.

DO YOU RECALL IN A RECENT REPORT I was pointing out that this sideways action has happened before, and yes it is frustrating, but it always ends eventually.  Here I was pointing out a sideways chop in 2014 that had a final quick plunge into an ICL.  Unexpected to many that didn’t know cycle counts.

I wanted to zoom in on that Quick plunge into an ICL, since we are likely near one now.

1. That break down was very scary to buy, it was just a 2 day plunge.

2. I wrote in the Purple dates under the actual dates that this occurred. Those are our current cycle count, and please notice how that lines up  🙂

3. In 2016, the Miners last ICL was the end of May, and look where that leads us this for that plunge.

THAT IS COOL TO ME.

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I also want to re-post this XAU consolidation, because some are getting frustrated and tired of waiting in this sideways action.  This was a chart that I posted a while ago, so you can ignore what I wrote on the chart then, and just focus on GREEN CIRCLE.  You see 3 months of just sideways chop &consolidation.  NO MONEY TO BE MADE TRADING THEN.  CHOP CHOP CHOP and if you kept jumping in and getting stopped out, it was frustrating. Now look at that run up after the 4 month chopping action. BOOM!

SO basically I am expecting that a pullback will end this choppy sideways action.  I am pointing all of these reminder out  ( And will keep doing so) so that my readers dont get frustrated with the current  price action in Miners and say,  ” This rots, I hate Miners. I’m not buying this weak sector anymore!”   Not that you would, but some do, and I think GOOD TRADES are fast approaching.

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So – look at the following 2 charts of  GORO and GSV  and you see some bullish action even now while Most Miners are chopping sideways and pulling back.  This is making me think that when Gold, Silver, and the Miners finally take off upside, Miners may really spring into action as buyers step back in  ( And some shorts cover).

GORO

GSV 

That is your weekend wrap up!  Enjoy the rest of your weekend and maybe re-read this Monday morning as a refresher.  Oil & Energy trades may make us some extra money while we are waiting for Miners to finally get moving upside.Next week may see the general markets breaking out one way or the other too!  Thanks for being here, have a great weekend!

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~ALEX