Tired Of Waiting?

/85 Comments/in /by

If you have been investing and trading for years, no doubt there are times that you find it is best to wait for that ‘Fat Pitch’, but not always so easy. Well the good news is, I can see that a real low risk buying opportunity is fast approaching, so lets discuss that again in todays report after a quick review of the markets…

SPX –  No real change from the weekend report.

.

USD – I expect the USD to roll over soon, it is due for a top using cycle timing. This should bottom Gold.

EDIT: As I write the $USD is surging to 97.45 , up .57 and Gold is only down $5. Very Encouraging.

usd-10-10

WTIC – 3 charts

Back on Sept 30th I drew a measured move target around $53ish, Slightly higher than the June Highs.  I did, however,  think that Oil would pause or struggle around the $50 area near the Aug highs.

wtic-9-30-d

So in the weekend report, I kept the measured move on the chart, but still thought Oil would struggle around the $50 area, and maybe end up forming a handle. 

wtic-10-8

WTIC – Monday Oil continued higher to equal the June highs and it is getting overbought, but it can stay overbought. A handle can still form after a break out too.

wtic-10-10

XLE – This looks like it could be reaching a peak. Individual energy stocks do not all look this way, so they can continue higher, but some did run higher and give up their gains into the close. We may see a pullback in the Energy area. 

xle-10-10

THAT BEING SAID:  I have some gains in a few Energy stocks and I may take profits to raise some cash and transfer it over to Miners when those lows are in. That is a personal choice, others may want to ride their Energy stocks.  AREX, OAS, ECA, CPE, CWEI, etc have been very nice to those holding them, especially since Feb & March. 

.

GOLD & MINERS

.

GOLD – Gold regained the 200sma ( Not shown) and is either on day 26 or Day 1 ( A swing is not in place yet, but a move higher Tuesday would do the trick. The good news is that even if Gold were to drop from here again, it is running out of time according to cycle timing.  Again look at the lows in May, we may just be seeing this bottoming action repeat.  A break above $1267.60 puts a swing low in place, and the lows are currently Fridays lows of  1243.20.

gold-10-10

 

GDX – Ditto, but we have a swing formed so far.

gdx-10-10

SO I discussed some Miners in the Weekend report.  I know that we can get another drop if this daily cycle lasts into 30 days or so, but it will be a quick drop and likely a quick recovery due to short covering, so I have started a couple of starter positions and I also have a core holding that I added a little to.  CDE, AG, NAK, TRX , and I like GPL as a silver stock that has great potential. Lets look at some charts of Miners and just see if they are still setting up in a bullish manner.  I also keep saying that for the conservative ones that cannot stand to watch their accounts lose money, you should wait for a confirmed swing low to be in place. I will point that out in the report the day it happens and then you will have 2-3 months of gains if this is an ICL being put in place.

.

AG – Read the chart

ag-1

 

AG # 2 –  Even if it drops because Gold does, knowing that the Daily Cycle low is close, I’ll add to my starter position on a reversal in Gold or GDX.

ag-2

 

AUY DAILY – Divergence at lower lows.

auy-10-10d

AUY WKLY – Support at the weekly 50 ma where it was once acting like resistance?

auy-10-10-w

 

IAG WEEKLY –  Same as AUY

iag-10-10

 

PAAS – Oversold and for those looking for a trending Miner,  this has gone from the $5 area to over $21. Yes, this could drop to the 200 sma, but it doesn’t have to.

paas-10-10

GPL WKLY – Quite oversold and also close to the 50 ma

gpl-10-10

AMRS –  Good volume for 1 day on this weekly chart.  I have recommended this several times, and even though it is moving right along week after week, it has had pull backs on the daily chart along the way.   I think this is going to $1 and beyond, and it has worked through resistance recently,  so I would still buy the dip.  ( Hang in there for your double Crystal 😉  )

amrs-10-10

I discussed Metals stocks like X and AKS in the weekend report. AKS tried to break above the 50sma today.  

aks-10-10

STLD – Ditto

stld-10-10

Many of the commodity stocks do look bullish. SID, CENX,  and CLD have been running higher.  Vale has broken out higher and CLF looks pretty good too.

vale-10-10

.

SO I am again bullish on Energy, Commodities, and Precious Metals are what I think will be the next place you want to be in.  Either start small positions now and add to them later, knowing that time is running out on the downside and the upside is greater, or patiently wait.  Honestly, those who have been patiently waiting for the past week have NOT missed anything.  It will pay off nicely and that wait is almost over. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

.

~ALEX

85 replies
  2. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    The USD is up over $0.50 and Gold was down $5 and looks to be reversing higher off of the morning lows. It really feels like time is running out for the Gold drop, since it is usually down $30 when the dollar shoots higher like that.

    TIme will tell

    If there are still shorts on the precious metals, they may start to cover and that should wake that puppy up.

  3. Chris
    Chris says:

    Hi Alex. Just to mention that I have not had the usual email alert for the last two reports. No idea if this is just me and my end or anyone else is experiencing a similar glitch but thought I would just mention it.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Thanks, have you checked your spam folder and all of that? I have them sent to myself too, and I have been receiving them. I know you have been with us for a long time, so I imagine that you are using the same email that you signed up with and so on…

      Anyone else can chime in if they have or have not been receiving them. Thx.

      • Chris
        Chris says:

        Checked all the other obvious areas and nothing there and same email. Not a major issue as I will just check in daily regardless. It’s probably been caused by another Microsoft update!! I’ve had more issues in the last six months after upgrading to Windows 10 than in the prior six years on Windows 7!! So many, many hours lost on help sites and forums!!! 🙁

          • Chris
            Chris says:

            I’ve lost count of the number of problems I’ve had and when you go into the ‘help’ areas and forums you realise how many others are having issues as well. I think what has proved most frustrating is that a ‘solution’ works for some but not for others, so literally hours and hours are lost trawling for alternative ‘fixes’. So, so frustrating and not least when something has worked fine for months and then suddenly stops working because of yet another ‘update’ pushed through in the back gorund by MS!!

          • nancytheartist
            nancytheartist says:

            Me too. There are so many things I can’t do now with WIndows 10. One problem after another. It is so frustrating. I had to get a new phone at the same time too and am still learning that…. and I feel intimidated by all my new technology! I have given in and finally now “text” which I had resisted. Must admit that was useful in hurricane Matthew. Back home, minor damage. Still cleaning up. After that, I will get back to trying to learn/do more with my tech.

          • Chris
            Chris says:

            I certainly know that ‘intimidated’ feeling Nancy!! Glad to hear only minor damage after the hurricane. Friends of mine have a holiday home in Kissimmee and left Florida to head back home here less than two days before the airport closed!! That was a little close for comfort for them I think!

    • Ken
      Ken says:

      I have Not received the daily Report via email for many weeks (prior to W10)…..not a big deal for me as I just go to the website. Just an FYI…..

  4. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    $22.53 for GDX is a break of the prior low from 3 days ago. That makes this Day 27 for miners.

    THAT is why it is best to wait for a swing to be ‘confirmed’, however this late in the cycle count, we are very close.

        • SonOfGud
          SonOfGud says:

          🙂
          i dont think the histogram will get that low.. do you?
          if you split up that final C.v wave ( i know you like the micro-wiggles lol)… it looks like we’ve had the C.v.iii with todays drop.
          just a guess, i say final C.v.v makes a double bottom more or less at todays level

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Yeah, I was just kidding around. It would probably take a steep multi day drop ( A flash drop) to tag it.

            I feel like time is running out on the downside potential here.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Alex – question for tomorrow – ok, so I went in early. As anyone who’s been here for a minute has already heard, I missed the move in Jan/Feb. So, that wasn’t happening again. And I already had a ‘core’ so I had the plan to add to them. Gold above the pre-market flash lows from last Friday but GDX undercut by a few cents. Not too unusual. And you said that we could mess around at the lows for a week. Again, all possible and kind of expected.

      For those that went in early, where would you recommend the cut point? At what point would we know that this was unraveling? We know what we are looking for to the upside, but do you see a trigger point for another waterfall? Thanks!

  6. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    Alex – I’m trying to get my head around WTIC. If this is only about day 12 of a 30 to 50 day cycle, and yet it is hitting the top end of the measure/prediction…….

    I’m planning to drop some oils that don’t seem to have the hustle to make it through a DCL, but don’t want to drop them early.

    Do you see weakness in this sector that I should step aside from now??

    (I have dry powder for miners when the time comes)

    • R Byram
      R Byram says:

      I’m dangerous with the tiny bit of cycle- knowledge that I have but PSCE is the small cap O&G etf I have followed for a few years. The low for it in this cycle was Sept 16 making this day 18. I’m getting my harvesting machine warmed up

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      When I showed a measured move, that is a first target. Measured moves can extend, and also if it were to pull back, it could just be a 1/2 cycle low, which is a small pull back to drop closer to the 10sma.

      By the way, I have us on day 15

  7. Glmus
    Glmus says:

    Alex has been great in setting the scene for a bottom and has some stocks above to watch to buy. SonOfGud below shows a chart suggesting a bottom is nigh. An EWT trader and Gann trader I watch are both looking for a bottom. What to do? For me, I mentioned the WEEKLY 5EMA cross up and RSI 1 = 100 for a safe entry when trying to catch a falling knife. It will be late. Another idea is to buy half a position for the same DAILY signals and double up on the WEEKLY signal. This is more aggressive, but good money management. Of course, use stops. When these metal stocks turn though, they can roar off. Also, Alex will let us know when/what to buy using his great chart readings. This is an exciting time.

    • Glmus
      Glmus says:

      A couple of extra notes.
      1. The EWT and Gann traders trade gold, GLD for me. It is possible that shares can be dragged down with the market. But if GLD and some stocks give buys (with Alex of course), then we should be okay.
      2. To be safer, the DAILY buy described above is safer if one waits for the WEEKLY RSI 1 = 100 too.

  8. Crystal
    Crystal says:

    Alex, thoughts on PGH chart here? Not sure if this goes higher … or to take profit and move to metals?

    • R Byram
      R Byram says:

      Bill that looks really stretched doesn’t it?? But it also looks like it could go to $99 in the trend channel.

      • Bill
        Bill says:

        It does. I did see one cycle go 46 days last July-August and 42 days last November. We have to be nearing the end, but I can see that upper channel calling.

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          If you look at the size of todays candle, one more could do it ( Fed Minutes released tomorrow, Maybe Gold is waiting for the USD to top and roll over, and then Gold Bottoms.).

  10. Glmus
    Glmus says:

    Tammie, re your post yesterday, yes EPE, ERF, and AREX got buys two days ago. EPE looks like it would be close to a stop out for me. The others are still okay. How you manage your gains/losses is up to you of course. 🙂

    • Tammie
      Tammie says:

      Thanks for letting me know, just wanted to see if I was reading the charts correctly according to your system…..I have been holding EPE at a tiny loss so waiting for it to go back up (and of course now it’s down more….)…..I had a nice gain in ERF so sold it to lock that in….AREX….have been waiting to get back in…waited to see what oil will do….I see it looks like it wants to keep that 5 EMA but the RSI isn’t at 100 any longer…so will keep watching 🙂

  11. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I mentioned the inconsistency of the email alerts to support.

    They mentioned that If anyone has had issues with not receiving email alerts, it would be great if you could contact technical support & report it directly to them so they can look into it ( It can be done by using the support tab along the top of the page – use contact me, and then choose support, and not Alex). That way they can not only be aware of the problem, but try to see why some emails are affected and others arent.

    I would still ask that you please do that if you are getting interrupted service on the email alerts. Thanks

  12. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    The USD is up $0.76 and $Gold is down $4. Usually a move like that in the dollar is a slam down of $30- $40 for $Gold and Miners.

    Fed Minutes released tomorrow may be the bottom in Gold & Top in the USD.

    ** If Miners are going to lead the way they often do, maybe we’ll see some buying going into the close – OR – A slam down exhaustion Gap tomorrow at the open, and then a steady climb out of that hole when no one dares to buy.

    • SonOfGud
      SonOfGud says:

      dayumm!.. theyre gonna make me sweat….
      i just bought some CDE & GPL today.
      had the ‘Cason Effect’… immediate dip in price. lol

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        I am honestly amazed when I look at the USD or UUP and I see what it is doing, and GDX is only down 50 cents to Thursday and Fridays lows.

        And GPL – It’s not even testing the lows of last week : )

        • SonOfGud
          SonOfGud says:

          maybe both PMs & $$$ providing some safe haven from the falling £££…
          would it have that much effect though?

    • Tammie
      Tammie says:

      I’m thinking the uncertainty over Brexit…sending the pound down against the dollar – is having a big impact and wondering how long it might take all that to work out……hoping and hoping that it doesn’t keep the dollar elevated for a long time…..? I wish we had a fund for short the pound 🙂 🙂

    • Glmus
      Glmus says:

      Re: Fed Minutes released tomorrow may be the bottom in Gold & Top in the USD.
      I looked this up and it said that they are released at 1400 EDT which is after the market. Am I wrong?

  13. Glmus
    Glmus says:

    Here are some falling knives: NAK, NG, AG, VGZ, DRD. A couple of these are wedging so could explode up even though they are knives. I am sure that Alex is watching these. DRD is the most interesting to me on a DAILY basis, but not a buy for me yet. Today looks tricky in any case.

  14. Steve Tytler
    Steve Tytler says:

    Alex I have been sitting in cash for weeks waiting for the “Fat Pitch” of a PM ICL. Since I am no longer and active trader I’m waiting for the swing to confirm that the “bottom” is in. For those of us who are longer term swing investors rather than active traders, please make it clear when you see that “fat pitch” BUY signal we’ve been waiting for so I don’t jump the gun by buying too soon or miss the boat by waiting too long. I’m not willing to take draw downs any more, I prefer to miss the absolute bottom and catch most of the UP trend. Thanks!

  15. alain
    alain says:

    when you look at the US $ Index on a weekly chart after what happened this morning it’s extremely bullish , but the daily is ready to retrace down for a while ,so what I am trying to say is ;maybe gold will just bounce back up, but very little chance will move over the July high this time around ,unless $ and gold move higher together !!!!!!!!! Alex what’s your opinion on the US. LT ?

  17. bob vanderbeek
    bob vanderbeek says:

    Hi Alex,
    I understand you don’t considered (or at least haven’t always in the past) yourself as a cycle specialist but you’ve called short daily’s since may even speculating 4, with historical reference for an ICL.
    Thanks

Comments are closed.