Oct 23 – Weekend Report
Lets get right to the weekend review.
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SPX 1 week ago – It was struggling to move higher. Not a ‘long’ or ‘short’ play going forward, just sideways chop again.
SPX WKLY – No change, still looks weak.
USD 1 week ago – the USD looked like it wanted to go higher using technical analyses. This looked bullish to 99 or 100 ( Magenta line), but was overdue for a DCL really.
USD – The dollar broke out again and is moving higher ( Important to note that Gold is not being smashed down on this rally. I will discuss this later in the report too).
USD WKLY – So far I still see lower highs and lower lows. It is a bullish looking set up, or is it? I will discuss this later in the report.
WTIC – I’ve mentioned how I felt that a handle would form on Oil, as Oil paused and struggled around the $50 area. We see that happening. A dcl can come from 30 days to 50, that leaves things somewhat vague until we see a break up or down.
WTIC WEEKLY – Still acting bullishly if you ask me.
NATGAS – Dropping down here, it looks like it may have more room to drop. NATGAS is in the middle of a move.
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GOLD DAY 10 – Gold put in it’s swing low last week, so we expect an upside run. Miners seem to be leading. See Thursday or Fridays report again if necessary. GOLD tagged the 10sma area Friday near $1260.
GOLD POSSIBILITY- Just a bullish idea, not a prediction really. This first move could be more muted than shown.
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GOLD WKLY – ICL possible and likely.
MINERS
Before getting into the current Miner count and progress, lets look at the MAY 2016 ICL and the JAN 2016 ICL
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GDX at the May ICL – It really didn’t do much for the first 5 days , then it popped higher and went sideways for a while.
GDX – Notice how GDX moved higher to day 6 and then sideways on day 6,7,8,9,10. Day 11 it rocketed higher and never looked back.
GDX – GDX IS ON DAY 8 and looks similar to the JAN 2016 ICL above. It moved higher to day 6, and now sideways on day 7 & 8. Drop to the 10sma?
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Just an idea : Comparing GDX with the MAY ICL, it could just Bounce higher & then Drop, Bounce & Drop ( Not shoot straight up). GDX can drop from here and remain Bullish.
GDX WKLY – I really want to see GDX close above $26 in the next week or two.
IMPORTANT
I wanted to point this out, because the discussion among quite a few traders lately has been ” The USD looks strong, how can Gold run higher?” or even ” Can Gold move higher with the USD ?” It is a valid question, because usually when the USD is rising , Gold is usually dropping, so lets take a look at something interesting.
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GOLD & THE USD – As the big rally from 2000-2008 was starting, The USD was putting in a triple top that took from the year 2000 into 2002 (See the chart ). When Gold broke out it remained above the 50 Weekly MA most of the time.
Zooming in on the USD , we see how the triple was top forming in a similar way that we see the USD now. I want to zoom in closer to show you 1 more important fact.
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ZOOM IN on the USD WEEKLY during that triple top and you will see in the box below it at that same time frame that, Gold also ignored the Dollars ride and they both ran higher together until the USD ran out of time. See the Orange Box . That was on the 3rd top, and we may be forming a 3rd top now.
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So the answer to that question, ” Can the USD and GOLD really move higher together?” or ” Why are Gold and the USD running higher?” May be seen at Golds lows in 2002-2002. Yes, it did happen then.
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I hope everyone had a good restful weekend, enjoy your Monday Trading.
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~ALEX
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Note: I like these set ups and it may bode well for Miners if the other metals are set up to run higher too.
Other Commodities / Metals look to be setting up for a run to former highs. Vale is at 2016 highs and these stock charts were posted in the comments section Friday. The charts were captured mid day. They could be bought with a stop below the 10sma if someone was interested in this sector.
Thanks Alex, Encouraging with Gold going lower right now.
Yeah, and then it popped a bit while you wrote that : )
Really cool 2002 chart with both rising.
There goes $GOLD upwards! $1270 plus!
Good move in Gold and Silver. Fingers crossed, patience limited.
Thanks Alex for the great report (in a totally different angle … 3top USD & gold bottom). Really enjoyed your unbiased analysis.
Tahoe up 16% in pre-market. Any news?
POG had best get a fire under it here,it’s day 10 already and we’re in the timing band for a 1/2 cycle low at the end of the week already. Something most nobody is talking about is earnings being released starting this week. We should expect some very strong reports from the 3rd quarter with guidance down some. It is my belief that these elevated earnings expectations provided the fuel for last week’s out performance by the miners in respect to the POG.
Thats why I put this chart ( refresh ) in the report. If Gold gets going, it could easily do this in 3 days to the 50sma.
Will It? Not sure, but it could. Right now a lot of people are doubting the lows in Gold, I kind of like that.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1aacc21256ee6d4421150f6b4817b39e92ff3eb9ae335b2772ddc855df981589.jpg
😀
Let me guess, smiley because it has an E.W. count on it – haha
Nice EW count CF ! 🙂
Are you now leaning towards a DCL / ICL in November your 2 ?
It appears to be an ICL, unless lows are taken out. I have seen these revisit lows, and it is the most painful of times. I hate it.
Dec 2015 was the worst. DEC 3 was the ICL for Gold, look at that dip back to lows 🙁 ( Miners actually broke down & bottomed mid Jan, but that was a lot of bear market fear I think)
…. nope … just becuz..
ok maybe a tiny bit ;}
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1f3ccc0d8e0c2b22902749e5021d8125ab3597c9d28a2d8b08e0833fd4722459.jpg
Everything else I read. And I mean EVERYTHING/EVERYBODY still thinks ICL is ahead this winter. The only issue I am having resolving with respect to timing is the Dec rate hike. That fits DCL cycle timing
Anyway, either you are an absolute genius OR I go broke before it gets here. I vote for #1
Alex, Nice observation re: USD triple top.Great catch.
Thx Rob – Hope all is well. Drop me an email sometime
Alex…..does that look like a little cup and handle on GORO? Just wondering…..thinking about adding to some I have….
I hope you’re right. Seems to fit most of the criteria in stockcharts (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle_continuation) although a little short (less than a month old). Hope you’re right though–that means breakout takes it to approximately $7.05.
Yeah…..that’s what I’m hoping…..so sure would like to add on this dip…..maybe…..maybe..
Hi Tammy,
No, it doesnt really fit a true cup & handle ( maybe a little bull flag type sideways consolidation) , but it looks like it may just be drifting back to test the 10sma ( and if you can picture an elliot wave 1-2-3-4-5, it looks like 1 is done and this is the drop into 2) . You could add with a stop bellow recent lows or a tighter stop by $5.50 – but you may get stopped out on that one.
OR wait and add if it tags the 10sma and holds?
One trade that seems like I have missed repeatedly is MTL.
As it starts to run, volume is so low I wont take that trade, then it powers higher and volume swells upwards of 1/2 million to 1 million.
What a great chart it has now,.
this better only be a C wave up in DUST, and not a 3…
I don’t see your C. Looks like we could have had C on 10/19. That would not be a good thing.
Gary
i wasnt being very clear…
this is the scenario i’d rather not have to endure
f5
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b250ec18aa128addf464a5575fee12296890e0761c67c690be78315f1ea599b5.jpg
..and this is the favoured scenario..
f5
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/225a3840c21fc2e594a13946aa61c135f025875ddd728b523f499e76d02180f4.jpg
Your i, ii, iii could be an abc. Then your iv could be an x when it ends. There is a gap to be filled so having x end there would be sweet.
Gary
im not following…
what would your abc-x be a correction of?
do you think we are possibly in a double zigzag?.. that would be even worse!! 🙂
if not …either the ABC is done, and we are in a new impulse1 (down in the case of DUST)… or ABC aint finished yet.. ie. as in my other chart
Aha, I see. But can your iv be valid if it overlaps i?
well not strictly according to the ‘theory’.. but one sees that 2nd correction wave overlapping the 1st impulse so many times, ya goitta wonder sometimes, whether they got it the ‘theory’ right 🙂
this is the only ABC-X i can picture..
nightmare! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a7364a3d44c745927bfe3d36f1b19560ae2720fe10d78522538d07cd68f0e510.jpg
Much better!!
I’ll take this one!
If DUST does that I’ll stop out with some pretty serious losses. 🙁 That’s scenario wouldn’t happen out of an ICL!
or a 4? https://www.tradingview.com/x/d57BXmsf/
*4 hr
or ‘2’ on the daily? ….. https://www.tradingview.com/x/g3tMhBxe/
im just concerned the C aint finished.. see my chart i just posted
*4hr
Walked away from screen for just a little bit….man…..AG and MUX……not making me very happy
indeed .. there’s some sucky minus % knocking around today
Indeed……I almost had my jnug back to postive…almost….was $45 away from green in it, then it took the dive…..geez……could have sold at $45 loss and…….buy back ……arghhhhhhhh I don’t often do the leveraged funds because just can’t take it…..but still have hope it will be much higher before it’s over…
Sad Face. I had a big win in JNUG and gave it back. Grrr….
i dont like doing those leveraged miners, except DUST hedging.
deterioration slippage whilst price is in a sideways range is not good.
ok if you know when the impulses are due though! 🙂
Ag is right back down near where I bought it,and I hate giving the recent gains back, but ( refresh) …That doesn;t mean it isn’t a bullish set up. I wouldnt want to see GDX back at the lows, but AG can actually break the lows and recover and still be fine : (
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https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9247344f8e27b0d76103e18e67fe9a302a557a000b95ed6d45a6fac7aed05023.jpg
I am starting to watch some MJ stocks with volume and not a penny stock. MJNA is doing well, but I will await a pullback myself.
So many of these have had strong runs ,but the weekly charts do look good.
TRTC is in a consolidation phase, and looks like it is ready to make a good move,
I do not know the company well, so Due Diligence is necessary in this sector. 🙂
Hey Alex, let’s watch for your MTL to back fill that large gap near the 200 WSMA
Sea of red in the ol’ trading account. Fudge.
Hang on , I feel rumblings
Divergence on short term intraday charts looking for a bounce or double bottom in some areas
See if it has follow through
how’s gold looking above the 10sma?
Gold really doesn’t look bad, Miners are pulling back ( Bit they led higher).
Looking at GOLD -$3
Silver +.05
USD +.12
Kind of the same thing that I said in the weekend report. $USD up, Silver Up, Gold down $3. Not looking bearish. Miners may be shaking people out, so at this point we just need to see if the lows hold .
Or sell and lock everything in and see if we get another run higher, but so far a GDX drop to the 10sma is ok, and there is a gap a bit lower, maybe a shake out below the 10sma and recovery?
A rare dot of green for me is NAK..go NAK.
It is. But doesn’t make up for MUX. muxie getting flat pounded today!!
I have that too…poo.
Me too….and in 2 different accounts…..really red right now……arghhhhh
hoping we have just seen the end of wave 2 there.
a 76.4% retrace almost!
Yeah, WTF?!? NOT the way I wanted to start the week. We had a bit of green at the open so the downside reversal was really hard to stomach. Take profits early and often, I guess? Too bad I didn’t. Ugh!
I just noticed the note in the typewriter Alex posted at the top of the report….go take a look at it again… and take a deep breath. We need some reggae music….”don’t worry, be happy!” [“this too shall pass” ?] OK, now I’ve used up all my “calm down” advice..LOL.
I know….bleh. I was thinking on some of mine, wow maybe I should sell while they are up…but was thinking..no, no, just hold…..gold gonna go up…..bleh.
Like I was telling SOG, we all pretty much agree most miners should be fine. If you’re not comfortable with JNUG sell at next pop and reinvest to add a few more shares on top of your 3-5 favorite picks!
i spose you gotta decide what degree of wiggle you gonna trade.
my TRX was up $500 last week.. now back to only $100+,
butttt…. if i traded out then, chances are i wouldnt re-enter on a moonshot, and then i miss out on a potential 150%er
Great point! So, with my 1x miners I’m holding all unless we broke the recent $22.xx lows. Right, same here with TRX and AUMN was up a bit and now I’m not up that much. I was really talking ’bout me options. Most of you guys are smart enough not to fiddle with them.
I agree, if I sold I would be all negative now and then if it went up tomorrow, I would be left behind.
I appreciate your comment, helping me focus – trading single miners by cycle theory and breakouts, resistance, etc. Then I’ll have a more micro approach to my shorter term designed options. Oye!!
GG and FSM got upgrades.
FCX reports tomorrow I think.
This is really disappointing concerning miners and gold. Does anyone think that looks like a bear flag on the daily chart of XAUUSD? Gold can’t break thru the 200sma.
Yeah, this just sucks. Gold has gone absolutely nowhere. And now miners getting hammered over what now is a tepid $3- $4 drop. Color me disappointed. I see two courses of action for us:
1) let’s make some inflammatory comments about blood in streets or similar to get a rise out of people or
2) have CF copy our comments into the report in a few days with the “I told you so!” tag line.
copy / clip / paste : )
Ha, Blood in the streets is not technically correct. Please. LOL 🙂
Here is a positive imo:
GLD, GDX and SLV all bounced off their 10 SMA today……..
Well thank you Mr.Ken! Positive is good!
DUST now coiling on my 2H chart.
really looking for that breakdown below the uptrend lines….
could be a case of sell miners and buy DUST if it goes the other way!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2e0be2a238d51b2a2fcbe4ea254b72992085fe7994331754fd51406a1a8ea7c3.jpg
It’s kind of confusing. 50% are bearish and other 50% are bullish. I want to be on sidelines for a while
don’t blame ya.
think i want to sell half miners & buy half DUST!
looks like they capped metals at $1275.
You guys can be my new contrarian indicator. Going long! 😛
my contrarian indicator subscription comes cheap… at only $5000 a year.
MNGA, my star of the day, is back to even – not good.
The first decision one needs to make is: Was GDX Oct. 12 the DCL (possible ICL) ?
If your answer is No: Reduce exposure or hedge with DUST and hold your positions.
If your answer is Yes: Hold with with a stop below the break of the Oct. 12 low stop run, which will be the bottom of the fifth wave and the DCL/ICL.
If it does break that Oct. 12 low with a stop run I will without hesitation add to my Call Leaps in SLV and GDX. If not I will be watching the show for quite awhile, most likely many months.
Pretty much same plan but Bill and I get a bit emotional from time to time. I wanted to lighten at the 50-day but we didn’t get there.
u do? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/062fdaa228e5b07260af7fc95105ef1d5a6a3866291b3e9808468745af9b0736.png
First of all, that’s hot. 2nd…Hey wait! Is that me or CF (you got the hair all wrong)!
CF
Yeah, no I said that earlier. I’m keeping 1x miners unless wemail break down. Sell leverage at test of 50-day, buy back at DCL (Pending timing, depth of retrace, etc). Simple and elegant and … DAMN HARD since gold is sucking!!
Buying Biotech at these levels…….XBI.
Risk reward is excellent….very defensible.
howwabout that crude……kennyLR
HOTT…..
meow
I bought Friday, was early but only a couple of percent if we move up from here. Started slow with a pretty small position.
GPL showing good recovery?
ASM, FSM, GSS, NAK, SLV, SWC , GPL, IAG
these are telling you not to panic
just remarking to Cas below.. MUX retrace is 76.4%
even if its only b of an abc, we should get back in the green with a c wave up
If you are in a panic mentality you have over exposed yourself in the sector.
But…blood…so…much..
red… 🙂 🙂 🙂
I agree.
So, things are on sale Alex…..what would you buy? 🙂
I would wait for a reversal if I am already positioned, but I was looking at a few Miners that really do look fine. I want to see GDX hold that 10sma .
I’ll post a chart of HL ( refresh), I’m not saying to buy it- you may want to wait another day and see how these act tomorrow, especially if you are already heavily invested, but it looks good
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https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/37106e600dfae15f3af226dfeadf89e04eecb7d1d5bd006348bde7f21e52cd59.jpg
HL chart similar to NUGT chart, don’t you think?
I see a break out of the downtrend on Hl, I dont see one yet on NUGT- similar patterns though
Lot of buys on HL in the final minute.
With Alex, I’m not buying here. I have enough until we PROVEN that we get moving.
Add EGI and MDRPF to that list…..
CWEI was beaten down to $74. at the close. Up in afterhours due to news.
OAS the only energy I saw up today. Got an analyst upgrade, took that just to break even.
JNUG up post market, NUGT down post market. Anyone else seeing this?
Now I’m showing NUGT up 4 cents, JNUG down 2cents…..checked on several miners…some are up after hours, some are down….a real mixed bag…
NAK. EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW: Seeking Alpha just released a new slant and total history on Dynasty by the folks at Courage & Conviction Investing. I’ve been in and out of NAK for many years and with a Clinton victory I’d say this would be the most bullish this long shot has ever looked. Political corruption could be just about ready to work in favor of the world class deposit instead of impairing it. The article also directs you to a good many write ups from the past so you can educate yourself to its long and dirty battle with the EPA. ( sorry I am unable to link.) Google Seeking Alpha should get you there.
Did anyone notice nat gas today? Gas (continuous contract) was down 16 cents but UNG closed down less than 1%? What?! HUGE contango in gas futures. Nov futures expire Thurs. Friday could be crazy for gas (I am NOT saying Buy – I won’t initiate anything ahead of this).