SEPT 16 – REMINDERS
This is just a little Friday report to toss out some Reminders about what we will be looking for next week.
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NASDAQ – I have been mentioning that cycle timing indicates that we should have a daily cycle low. We don’t have one in he SPX yet, but the NAZ may be leading the way. The SOX is very bullish, and the NYA, RUT, DJIA, etc have also put in a dcl.
USD – I actually think that the USD is going to roll over and look for another ICL soon. So if we have an inverse relationship with Gold, this could bounce & drop / Gold would drop and pop around the Fed Mtg. I drew a run above the 200sma, but that may not happen.
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WTIC – This chart is from Yesterdays report. I mentioned that Oil seems weak ( And the XLE broke down), so what if the ICL still lies ahead, and is not where I thought it was? It is unlikely that a first daily cycle is going to be Left Translated, so I felt that we may be in a 4th daily cycle with the ICL ahead. A second scenario is…
WTIC – Time has passed by and we are on day 30, which is within the early timing for a dcl. So what if we get a tag of the 200sma on day 33? 35? Somewhere around then, and then go higher? That is possible too, but it still makes for a L.T. first daily cycle. I would watch for Energy stocks to show some vigor and we may see a low.
GOLD – This does not look like we had a sell off into an ICL in Gold yet, right? The selling has been tame, so I do think that we can get a deeper sell off after the Fed Mtg next week. Please read the chart.
GOLD – I want you to try and imagine Gold rising up Friday, Monday and Tuesday. We would hear our own thoughts crying out, “Am I missing the move here? Was that a fake sell down? That was a higher low, and we are breaking to new highs? SHOULD I BUY? !!!” STARE AT THE CHART BELOW.
GOLD – I SAID TO STARE AT IT 🙂
GOLD – AGAIN, STARE AT IT!! Wouldn’t that be Bullish looking ? It would likely suck in the buyers…
GOLD – SON OF A GUN! NOOOOO! SO lets just remain cautious and we’ll see what happens after the Fed Mtg. It is early in the daily cycle and I still think we will see it roll over.
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GDX – Miners DO look like they sold off a bit more intensely already. They look similar to the ICL in May with their selling pressure. I Also see divergence in the RSI as GDX approaches the recent lows. Could they hold up while Gold sells off? Could they just do a shake out slight undercut if Gold sells off? I think they could, but…
GDX – This is normal too, so I want to be mentally prepared and…
HUI 2010 & 2011 –
Please just focus on the BLUE WRITING, are we seeing this now? We have currently seen a sell off and a bounce, and yes- we could sell off after the Fed. STAY FROSTY MY FRIENDS.
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Have a great Friday, have a great weekend!
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I am a bit surprised by the comment of the SPX not having a DCL. I see that being ironed out on Monday. I also don’t think the $COMPQ can have a DCL but not the other indices.
Look at a chart of the SPX – it is not confirmed. It doesn’t mean that the lows are in, they are not ‘confirmed’ the way the others are.
Crude already had its ICL, appears to me this is the DCL being played out. Right now the dixie is making all assets miserable. Until the currency manipulation stops or fails by BOJ and ECB, we will continue to be annoyed.
I’m perplexed on oil. The first 12 days were a monster move, but now it’s weak sauce. I said yesterday we had gold/miner BMRs that did 100% retrace in 1st daily cycle. Oil feels to test 39/40 area. I’d put that at almost inevitable. I’m now short crude through SCO/DWTI, short term pending Fed and OPEN. The Fundamentals are clearly bearish right now.
Great observations, Alex!
Thanks Rob –
And then Gold drops & the USD moves higher going into the Fed.
Tough trading. Maybe Cash is King at this point.
I’ve decided to buy and hold long term. Granted, I do not have hundreds of thousands of dollars in my portfolio, but I either become financially secure with gold’s bull run or I go down with the ship. We might not have a better opportunity in our lifetime??? Time will tell.
At the next ICL I’m hoping to buy and potentially hold for years. I started a core at the 3rd DCL, it’s not down but back to about breakeven, hope to eventually have cost basis so far below reality that DCLs don’t even cause me to break a sweat or even blink! GL!
hi stranger … man u dropped a bomb and disappeared
#BadTckr
What ticker did bad boy Rob have for us?
it started w/ a c and ended with an m.
there was a u in the middle of it
Oh , I remember that chart now. It was actually a bullish stock, but I lost track. Canadian stock I think
mmmhmmmm
…. was trending up nicely …butt ..it’s been a slow and steady slide down… searching out a bottom…
lol.. prude Maria’s gone all Tammy Wynette.
…
The USD is on fire. My guess we at least test the 200ma, if she breaks through and holds then we may have problems. However, I simply believe this move is to add cushion for when the Fed does not hike and the USD gets slammed down into its ICL. Thoughts?
Yes, I can see the last sentence of your thoughts playing out.
Even a brief run above the 200sma could draw in longs for a bull trap. The chart above in this report would be that fake break above the 200, but trapped under a trend line, and then a drop.
The we could get a gold/ miners rally as the USD drops into an ICL
Thank you Alex for the Cycle count in the USD.
I’ve added SCO/DWTI and just a little bit of DUST. Not full out bearish but hedging. I was overload long last couple of weeks and it is no longer ok to be in that position.
As far ad energy, was forced to part with WPX, unwilling to give up solid gains. Anything else near parity (like PGH, DNR) I’ve ejected to small loss. Poor management puts a few positions well underwater, hence the short plays. Point is to true to stay neutrally boyuant into the Fed and then play the directional move that sets up.
Finally, went long NAZ w/ TQQQ. 3 reasons, Alex stated likely DCL, diversification – tech looks hot here and need something NOT linked to commodities and USD, and while 3x it doesn’t move 10-15% in a day like some, so gap open huge stop busting moves while possible are less likely than others.
I was floundering some earlier in the week. Continued themes from Alex and some thought time finally brought me to a strategy.
I was looking at 3-6 month charts of FNSR, CY, SOX, FIT, GPRO and more.
Some bullish charts with the recent sell off and indecision.
Yeah, I like the look of some of those. Plus I badly needed diversification. Having all of your assets in mining/energy and then getting a bad day? Yeah, I can’t do that, that is NOT fun.
Oil:
I still remain confident that Aug. 2 was an ICL. USO may test that TL below price for a wave 2 correction, that is where I will add to my XLE holdings.
Yeah, if we get to that lower trend line, I’d go long/add as well!!
EGO, NGD, and a few others are acting well
I am not sure why folks continue to be bearish oil. I see so many comments about it going back to low 30s. Its just fuel for the fire. If it breaks the recent ICL of 39. then I will have doubts. At this time, I see 60 dollar oil by EOY.
I expect it to test Aug lows. Wallow in the $20- $30 all year? No, that’d silly. But the Fundamentals are bearish next few weeks based on crude stocks and refinery seasonality. I don’t think it breaks higher from here without a catalyst. I’m talking short term.
With crude in the red, a few drillers are green SDRL, NADL, PACD, PKD..any thoughts.
OAS made a comeback from early morning lows as well, even after a secondary offering this morning.
I could also advise that anyone that hates money or making money in their account could take an immediate position in ERF. BARF!!
Watching JNUG on the 5 min chart. JNUG is going higher with the US Dollar? Making higher lows……
Alex, you still holding AMRS? Might be starting to run
Hi Bill, yes I am. It hasn’t violated anything that would be my stops (except my boredom levels) , but I am still in it : ) But yes, it does look good.
Note: I have been watching it closely because it is a NASDAQ stock and if it doesn’t get over the $1 level, it will get the normal “possible de-listing’ letter and they’ll have maybe 3 months to fix that. Usually that leads to a reverse split unless it does move over $1 by itself.
thanks for the verrry good reminders professor chartboy…
#StareAtThis 😉
$Bossy
Oh Mariaaaaaaaa
😉
Funny people!
Any opinions on FRO and DRYS? Thanks
Interesting, the charts do look kind of good here, but the shippers that I have been trading lately have been tough for me to make money and keep it. I buy 2 and make money in one, and lose in the other. They are closely related to OIL, so my timing has been a bit late or ear;ly.
I got stopped out of SALT the other day, and traded out of SB- I think both together have added up to a loss.
Thanks, Alex. I got bot DRYS and FRO looks like it may give me a buy. Small position, but like the base and weekly volume in DRYS.
Golden Ocean look promising imo
Seems the dollar is reacting to the yen….? I have a hard time understanding all the currency movements, the whys, etc. – but some of what I read says that at their policy meeting next week if Japan stays pat on rates then it could mean the yen will appreciate….which I THINK means the dollar would go down? or up? I get all turned around trying to figure it out – does anyone have a good way to explain how it works?
Dollar reacting to CPI report (inflation reading) this morning, came in above estimates, bullish for dollar,
But if dollar is made up of a basket of weighted currencies….how does the CPI report affect those currencies so that the dollar is affected? I know there must be a way…I just don’t understand….if price of our items has gone up…then…it takes more euro/yen to buy them (?)….so that decreases the value of euro/yen (?), which pushes dollar up? That might be all wrong thinking…hahaha…..I need to have an economists brain…:P
Correct, if Japan stands pat, the Yen will rise and the dollar will fall. Disregarding the CPI data, the BOJ and ECB have been intervening to keep their currencies low. BOJ dumped bonds 2 days ago in pre-marke (which is essentially buying dollars) Come next Wednesday, be ready for both to step in quickly to counter dollar move if there is not a rate hike. I don’t think there is much to do to stop the USD from completing its ICL. They may have stretched things out, but the date is set.
The value of the $US is actually explained by the dollar index
go to: https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/ICE_Dollar_Index_FAQ.pdf
Hi Alex – Are you still Bullish on LGCY. I bought at $ 1.65 and I have a stop at $ 1.50. Wondering if I should old or sell ?
Hi Goldsa-
I do still own it. The way I am looking at it at this point is that it did drop below support at the end of August. It regained that support and I viewed that as a possible ‘shake out’. Todays pull back ( So far) was light volume and it is recovering. It has actually pulled back 50% from the Sept 1 lows and the run to $1.80
So far, I am alright with it.
if youre thinking oil might retest august lows.. what chances of LGCY doing the same?
it stopped me out today, then shot back up.. but i dont like the look of it, below all the MAs.
i’ll re-enter if it can recover those
Thanks Alex !
This is the complex view. Holding support so far.
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refresh
Speaking of diversification – I like the looks of CARA – with a hard stop -bio 🙂
Pretty boring Friday PM, especially considering its Quad Witching, which I didn’t even realize at first, especially with the low volatility. I think we’re into Fed wait-out period for general markets. Considering continual poor action in crude, energy doesn’t look that bad today. Have a good weekend! 🙂
have a great weekend… it’s gorgeous Fall weather here :o)
Crude – it’s do or die time. It will have to shoot up pretty much immediately or will retest the 39.xx lows of early August. USO just below the 61.8% retrace, WTI right at it (there is some slippage even in the 1x ETF due to contract roll). A move back to the mid-10’s on USO could signal the end of wave 2 and that wave 3 is under way.
F5!
X daily – this stock has been CRUSHED after essentially going straight up in July. A test of the 100% retrace at 14.90 with a move back over the rapidly decline 8-day should signal a buy. CLF is thinking about getting jiggy with it, just needs a little more time to firm up
Pulling up CLF again – check out the divergences in price vs. Stochastics – either full (default) or Slow with a 5,1 setting. Clearly visible.
Of course…I sold part of my position the other day for some small profit. Plan to keep what is left as a core position….but I got scared and decided to lighten up before my trip. That was on I harvested some profits on…but probably too soon. Figures!
Nancy, never anything wrong with taking a win off the table. I’m starting to like the chart here, but not saying it’s going to take off yet. It may likely follow GDX similar to what Alex said about a bounce then follow other miners back down ICL Land. But likely a watchlist candidate now in my opinion. You should have plenty of chances to add, etc on the next few weeks. GL and enjoy your trip.