Is That A Gift?

It looks like a gift so far, but until it is unwrapped, we really cant be sure. One thing stands true though, I dont want to be ungrateful if it is.

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 The gift that I am referring to is the burst out of the lows in Gold, Silver, and Miners and the light volume pull back Wednesday.  It looks like a gift offering of a lower entry before another leg higher.  I’ll discuss that further, but first lets quickly cover Oil and Energy Stocks.

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WTIC –  Oil did get above the 50 sma today, but a little follow through Thursday would really build confidence.  The set up actually is improving since that sell off at the end of August. Hopefully todays report will give Oil some help.

XLE –  Another boost of confidence is the bullishness of the energy stocks.

OAS – For example,  OAS looks to be breaking out from here. AREX continues to climb.  RICE, REI, WPX , and others mentioned in prior reports continue to do well, even as Oil meanders along.  I continue to like the Energy sector.

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GOLD , SILVER, & MINERS

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You all know my thoughts and analyses using Cycles, I have  explained it extensively.  At this point, with those dangers already mentioned, I want to just use Technical analyses and view things that way from here.  If you take on a trade and it begins to break down, just get out.

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GOLD – It is only day 3, and Gold broke back above the 50sma like a shake out. Now we got a small pull back toward the 50sma.  The chart actually looks bullish.  A possible gift is this light pull back. If this breaks to new highs, it should be game on for a strong run higher.

$SILVER – Even more bullish. This really looks like a 2 month consolidation setting up to break out.

GDX – Was todays pullback a gift too? I mentioned in the Wednesday report that a lighter volume pull back could lead to a low risk entry, and much better than buying a stock that has gapped open 2 times and could pull back.  GDX dropped to the 8 ema and recovered.

SO AGAIN, This is what I posted in the chat area today. The GDX daily cycle could peak on day 8-12 if it is going to be left translated and fail using cycles.  Using technical analyses, these charts do look good, so there still is time to take a trade, but we just want to be alert.  Click to enlarge.

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I will again post a couple of charts showing what I look for.

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IAG from yesterdays report – Note the purple line looking for a dip to the 10sma and then a bounce  ( or rally).

IAG – Dipped to the 8ema and then bounced back. I noticed how closely price followed the 8 ema

IAG –  Also the 10 & 13 sma offered support. The price may now just go higher or it could do this again, going sideways for a day or two. Since this line slopes downward, another dip ‘could’ fill the gap and then go higher.  These are examples of slightly lower risk entries for a trade. Your stop can be loosely below  the 10sma, or below last weeks lows.

 TRX has already moved up a lot.  This is about a 50% move from .72 to $1.10! It is above the 50sma . If it goes to former highs, it is a big move.

I mentioned in the comments / chat area real time  that I bought TRX as it sat on the 50 sma line. I also mentioned why, see the chart.

AG – This chart I tweeted out when someone asked me about AG on Monday as a buy.  It was very oversold and did a 50% retrace.  Since then it has only moved to $13.35. There should be more upside if we are to rally.

AG today – It pulled back to the 10sma ( hard to see , but it is the blue line) and recovered Wednesday. If it does that again, I may take a position.

THM – I was looking to buy THM.  It hit the 50sma as resistance.  I decided that I want to wait for it to break through.

I thought that this looked good, and it does. Tagging the 10sma, but then I noticed that…

THM – It really should recover that 50sma before I take the trade.  I do not want to own a bunch of miners quite yet, until this recovery proves itself. The cycle set up has me a bit more cautious, but I do like these set ups so far as low risk. 

SAND from Wednesdays report.  It dropped and recovered too, so it remains near 2016 highs along with a few others.

Also I showed this list. A note about this list. Most are traded on the Toronto stock exchange, many look excellent. 

Since most are Canadian, some couldn’t find their charts. They can be looked up by adding a .to to the ticker, as shown on stockcharts.   ** Some of these Canadian stocks did not sell off at all recently.  If you can buy some of the miners listed on the Toronto stock exchange, it may be a safer play.

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I pointed this out yesterday for example– This is the OTC listing.  See how there was no big pull back and it is still almost breaking out. This is a strong stock chart.

KLONDEX MINES – ( KLDX on the NYSE ) This is another one that didn’t drop with the recent sell off.  Buy a pull back to the 20 sma. Even on the NYSE , it has stayed strong. 

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GREAT PANTHER – At times, the ticker will be different on the Toronto exchange. Great Panther in the U.S. is GPL. In Toronto it is GPR.TO,  so you may need to take that list and work with it a bit if you are trying to find the equivalent ticker in the U.S.   Some have OTC tickers, but the VOLUME IS EXTREMELY LOW.  I WILL NOT BUY THOSE if they trade under 300,000 average  ( maybe 200,000 average if the chart is exceptional.) .

SO pullbacks can offer lower risk entries, and then you must be cautious and use stops ( Mine are loose mental stops).  Then allow the miners another week or so to prove themselves.  I like the set ups on the Miners charts and Energy still looks good.  Lets see what the OIL inventory report at 11 a.m. does for Oil Thursday morning. The chart for NATGAS does not look great, but I think that it is seeking out a dcl.  10:30 NATGAS report often moves it one way or the other.  Pre-market, both are green.  Best to all. 

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~ALEX