Hard To Hold
The Tuesday report was discussing the recent volatility. Sideways chop is frustrating and newer positions are hard to hold, until you get a nice directional move. We are currently seeing strong volatility now. Lets take a look…
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SPX – The lows from Monday were not taken out, so that still could be a dcl, we just do not have confirmation.
I would still expect that we see a dcl very soon ( or it is in place) and a move higher in the general markets. Holding positions is obviously not easy.
This report is going to be one of the shorter ones, since we just had another day of the same basically. Nothing really changed on Tuesday. We had a big down day Friday, and big recovery Monday, another big drop Tuesday.
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WTIC – The Oil inventory report on Wednesday may reveal the true direction here. I have us on day 28. Oils daily cycles run from 30 on up to even 50 days. The recent sideways chop is a tad frustrating.
XLE – The XLE had been holding up very nicely. Tuesday the XLE finally joined Oil on it’s drop.
We are in choppy, volatile markets. I have pointed this out in the past, and I have pointed out many charts showing how during the prior bull moves, this choppiness also occurred. People often look at charts of prior Bull runs and think that they could easily ride positions in bull markets. They reason that, “Since it was a bull market, I wouldn’t care about all of the wiggles.” Currently I still have people asking me, “Will the ICL be deep? Should I sell my core now and get back in”. It wasn’t really a core holding if you trade it, and this is a bull market at this point, but you have to do what you are comfortable with. I wont make that decision for you.
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GOLD – Gold continues to drift lower, but the lows have not been taken out (yet). If the recent lows are broken, then we are likely rolling over into an ICL. The drop could last for weeks ( 20 trading days).
GDX – This could be heading for the $22 area, but the lows of the dcl are still holding as of now. If they break, I stop out of all new positions. As a sidenote, DUST doubled in August. If we get another bounce to the 50sma , but cannot break above it, we will then likely drop into the ICL, and alert very experienced traders may want to take a brief trade there.
So Friday, Monday, and Tuesday didn’t enlighten us as to what the medium picture has in store for a directional move. Go back and re-read the weekend report if you need to see what the possibilities were, but so far it is sideways chop. If this keeps up, it leads us into the upcoming FOMC mtg. I will not be holding many trading positions going into the FOMC in the middle of a late daily cycle. For now I Rock and Roll. Lets see what Wednesdays Oil Inventory report can do for Oil & Energy.
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~ALEX
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MID DAY in the comments, I was pointing out that the drop in AREX looks like a test of support after a break out. Many think that each day that AREX dropped since last week , it was an ugly stock, dead or dying, no good anymore.
This chart is a great looking chart so far.
AREX – I’d like to see a bounce and move higher soon. If it breaks down and closes back inside that base, THAT is unhealthy. You have to admit, AREX is still well above the 50sma & 200 sma, nearly $1 or more above either.
Thank you Alex. I hope today is much better for everyone.
Me too Johnny! : ) Have a good one
Thanks Alex- still hanging in 🙂 You are right it’s not a pretty picture right now and appreciate all your caution. I am wondering once we get the FED and the OPEC meetings out of the way this month, and we move toward OCT AND people realize CRAP the election is a month away and one of these two will really be our president, the dollar will nosedive and we will be back in the green.
I know and appreciate that we don’t get political here, but I think the overall sentiment and nervousness that most rational people have about the election (I am not thrilled about either candidate) will hit the dollar.
Just an idea. And in the meantime UGAZ is fun!
I just want to get the FOMC out of the way.
And my ideal scenario would be for a Gold sell off into an ICL . When you buy at an ICL, you can hold your positions for 2 months without any real worries. So as painful as ICL’s can be to the core positions, they are rewarding.
Stupid OAS out with the dreaded secondary offering which will be a drag on it’s price at the open. They’re calling it “senior convertible notes”, I’m calling it dilution and hope we don’t go bankrupt.
I only see it down 3-4% so far pre-market, and they did announce that at 4 yesterday afternoon during after market trading.
That puts it still above the 50sma.
9.70 to 9.22
hey alex, I just have one axe to grind with you, you always seem to be way tooooo positive on these markets. don,t take this personally, its just the way I see your comments and posts. richie
I don’t take it personal, but I do disagree Richie. How long have you been a subscriber? I offer “Caution” when I expect a pull back. I just dont cry about it. I dont get all emotional and spread ‘fear’ and ‘panic’ . Pull backs are healthy. They are buying opportunities. I do call for downside – I just dont get all panicky.
The weekend report shows DOWNSIDE targets. It is a positive thing to get an opportunity to have cash on hand t enter at lower prices.
You have to take your emotions out of it. So often, when the timing is due for a DCL or ICL, I’m not uber bullish, but I am still positive, Why? Because a pull back is an opportunity. I often mention ICL’s as DEEP and scary pullbacks. I say that they are hard to ride. If you arent holding a core, you need stops in place to have funds to re-enter. Are they negative and should I get all bummed out and negative about normal market movement? That is a traders mistake. No- In Bull markets these are healthy.
Dont let the down days get you down in a bull market.
I think he means that you show a positive possibility with a negative possibility? Maybe….
“Way too positive on these markets” he said.
They are bull markets. Surprises come to the upside.
Refresh – Look at GDX January to Now . We look for normal DCL and ICL when the timing is right, but many were afraid when panicky analysts kept saying GOLD TO $1000. Many missed a lot of this due to fear on pull backs. They were afraid to get back in in May, etc.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eec49ebe604678fa42705115096a84bacccc7db39e78645feac99702074b19a2.jpg
I get that you have a diverse following here. You almost have to say it could go higher from here, but be careful lower is a possibility. Some see it as non committal. I understand you are trying to give everyone something to think about. Not everyone swings for the fences like I do.
Right, but Anyone who commits to absolutely 100% know what the market will do tomorrow is misleading and should be committed- lol There are always probabilities, what is likely to happen, but don’t marry an idea and don’t be biased. It has saved me coin and made me coin. No emotions, just the most probable likelihood, but hey – anything can happen. Stay Frosty, Use stops. : )
Yep, somehow those stops are often right, even though I hate it when they get hit.
although I sometimes wish there was this kind of alert that went out during the day when the markets we’re turning ugly and I am not in front of a screen (maybe it’s too dramatic;)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9azjzhoL670
i dont think he’s too ‘nice’ at all …
#brat
At least you’re not aiming those angry eyes at me! 😮
Note to self; sell everything after the 2nd DC top. 😉
That will work, however, in Bull markets you also can have strong 3rd daily cycles. At least the 1st half of them.
THE move higher out of January lows peaked on May 1st. I guess it may depend on what type of lows you are coming out of. Those bear market final lows can be rockets
What is the current cycle in GOLD (3rd or 4th DC). Last week you warned that we might only get 8-12 days of gains! We got 3? Too hard to judge. I’ll try to keep more cash to buy the larger dips instead of getting too greedy. Just me going forward. 😉
Yes, ‘smaller positions’ if trading later in an Intermediate cycle. I dont swing for the fences if I expect a bounce that should become a L.T. daily cycle ( 3rd or 4th) , but as a trader I do often take those trade set ups.
Sometimes it pays off, other times ( like now) I am not getting gains . Bought BTG, TRX
I saw you buying NUGT again. I have said that I use leverage in the first 2 daily cycles , and caution after that. Thats just me
Actually, your entry on NUGT was a good entry the other day for a day trade.
I am a bit confused too. I noted on my calendar that Sept 6 was day 2 for gold and noted up to Sept 20 as the end of those possible up days and I was supposed to be out of all my non core trades. Is this still true? I am going away on a cruise next week so I would really like to know where the cycles will be while I am gone….Sept 24- Oct 1….????
I don’t think you are confused, you are correct that Sept 6 was day 2. I mentioned that when expecting a left translated daily cycle ( like we get on the 3rd or 4th daily cycle) the cycle often peaks by day 8-12.
I see that you counted forward 10 trading days from day 2 and got Sept 20- so that is one way to monitor it, but also you want to watch the trade and make sure that the lows are nt broken ( That is a stop), and if that daily cycle just goes sideways- it may not offer great gains.
Right now Gold itself is on day 7 (yesterday). Day 8 today. So Gold could pop and make a new high, but it may not be a great strong run, it may be a sideways move and then a pop and drop into what I expect to be an ICL.
If you are going away on vacation – you may miss the ICL.
So you expect the ICL buy to be within a week of this top?
No, I’ll have it in the reports though
Damn…I thought you had said end of Sept/ early Oct would be the earliest for the ICL. Thought I would be home in time. C’est la vie…I need a vacation! LOL. More copacabanatinis ahead but for more fun reasons than easing the pain of a very red day!
Enjoy your trip Nancy! No WiFi on vacation?
Hell no! Free of it all! I’ll worry when I get back! Plus I am in tech overload currently! I HAD to upgrade to windows 10 and am not up to speed on my computer and email. Then, I HAD to get a new phone. Sim card did not transfer so I am having to try to find all my old contacts…I barely can use the new phone to make a call yet! Lost. Lost soul. I NEED to escape it all! Badly.
Gmail (Google) makes it easy to move your contacts over to the new phone!
Enjoy your trip first and foremost, enjoy taht vacation : )
Remember that an ICL is a deep low that trades higher for 2 maybe 3 months- you wont miss the move.
Also the ICL after drop in Gold bottoms, could come in the 1st or second week of October- you may be back by then. If we are on day 8- picture the ICL on day 28 for example. It only counts trading days ( week days) , so 20 trading days would be 4 weeks away.
When you get back, Miners should still be near lows somewhat. ENJOY THAT REST & RELAXATION! 🙂
You are correct on not using leverage on 3rd and 4th. I was out of leverage until NUGT the other day. I am out of all miners except NAK currently. OIL is killing me as GUSH got hammered Yesterday.
XLE was holding up really well, so GUSH wouldn’t have seemed like a bad idea. XLE got unloaded yesterday. I didn’t expect that, so I’m watching Oil closely here too. .
reason i’m holding is that i reckon these supports should hold.
USO and PGH charts show thickening of ribbon is in the current price zone
f5!!!!!
Wowsa ! Nice chart SOG…..
its like the ‘dark matter’ which is responsible for the distribution of galaxies in the cosmos… kinda 🙂
That’s where Maria is from !!! ;). She might have some further insight? 🙂
did somebody say boobs?
can see them in the wood patterns of your hot-tub room
Not me….boobs from the cosmos scare me ! 🙂
Yep!!
u only know cuz u lived next door to me …
#PeepingTom
lol…………….
What do you mean by thickening of ribbon? Could you post a screenshot? Thanks! *bort*
press f5 key Erik.. or just refresh your page some other way
That did it. Thanks!
wha hoo – that is a cool chart. I have no idea what it means. It sort of looks like a design for the left half of a brassiere, which would imply there is another bump to fill!!
lol.. i have posted other charts in the past which resemble boobs.
must be a subconscious thing
They are definitely better in pairs!!
oh yessss!… am i liking this sudden change to green.
OK…I see a wave with the candles as the foam! A bra?! LOL.
Saudis don’t care ’bout your ribbons…
saudis schmaudis
Yep. And I don’t care for their tactics!
Alex, if we could continue our discussion on Oil from yesterday:
I added where I “think” the DC’s are And where I think the next ICL will be.
I am assuming the norm in Oil is that there are 3 DC’s in most IC’s?
Do you concur?
3 or 4 LONG Dailys
I think Oil just spiked
Yea bounced off that TL…….
Are you saying my DC’s that I am showing are too short?
No, I actually didnt see your chart when I answered. I did call your 2 an ICL though.
Hmmm…….with only 2 DC’s in that ICL?
count again : )
Lol…….ok ok. no other comments from the peanut gallery needed…. 🙂
That is Much better…..
So the next DC in early Oct. which could be my ii of 3 ?
If we have already peaked off a 2nd daily cycle that would be negative with a lower higher and unlikely to launch into a 3rd wave as shown. But I don’t have a better count, honestly. Thanks for sharing ideas!
count again
Exactly. That’s why I was saying this was still 1 single daily cycle. Agreed with your count.
Remember bear market rallies in metals where GDX and Gold would hit an ICL and round-trip? A full 100% retrace then a 2nd daily cycle that would rip upwards? From memory happened at least twice, in Nov 2014 and again 2015, may try to chart later. Yeah….oil…now…yup
Was this open a stop run in energy? Lots of long tails now. Anyone thinking of adding here (e.g., anyone still holding CHK or LPI)?
I don’t think so. I sold out of LPI today. Oil is gonna to retest the lows at $39.xx I won’t be taking any new trades here. This is a pretty solid downtrend in the short term.
for the Loonie guyz – ASR/ alacer gold seems to jump out of base which lasted almost 4 years up more than 6 %
OIL INVENTORIES down 559,000 Oil spiking for now
Spiked died
CRAZY OIL SPIKE TO GREEN – Now down $1 again
its a swizz
I dont know what a swizz iz, but if that’s the sound of air being let out of my investments, I’m feeling a lsow swizz .
I had so much short term hope for PGH, looks to be heading back down to $1.40.
(Longer term, still ok for now).
lol
various sources…
Something that is disappointing or unfair
‘There’s only half as much in the new packets. “What a swizz!”
(Britain, informal) A swindle, disappointment.
‘That packet only had ten sweets in it; what a swizz.’
An unfair deal; a rip-off.
‘Car insurance is a swizz’
#unfair #rip-off #cheat #expensive #crap
I’m feeling a fast swizz… whatever the heck that is.
The dollar has been falling for the last 3 hours, so has NUGT? Don’t see that every day.
Stopped out of SALT. That’s the way it goes sometimes.
Me too, today
just another example…
amazing how AUMN has reacted at the thickenings & edges of the ribbon in recent months.
or,… as some might say.. #amazeballs
f5
Really, it looks like an ocean wave! Now please go up again fast! I want to sell before I leave!
i can see what you mean.. Hokusai-esque
What is the overlay you are using?
i set it up myself, using lin regression.
its not an off-the-shelf ribbon overlay.
required some patience though!
im using TC2000.
i can’t find it on stockcharts or tradingview though
I use TC2000 as well as Marketsmith as paid chart services, and some use of Stockcharts, Bigcharts and Finviz. I find TC2000 is excellent for record keeping and I can see the candlesticks the best on it. Marketsmith gives me lots of fundamental and technical data. I’m taking a course in a few weeks with a CANSLIM guy and so hope to get a better understanding of Marketsmith.
Way cool. Very interesting. I would love to see some more of them if you ever get the chance and watch how they play out.
i willl post some more if i see any interesting patterns.
what stocks are you in?.. i can run them thru the ribbon chart…. see what shows up.
Yes! Now you see it as I did…LOL. But, AUMN just dropped…poo. Also the volume seems so low.
Perfect picture to illustrate it! I like the chart find it interesting. don’t know if it will be reliable if AUMN goes up again, but it makes it easy to see the concentration above…I changed an order I had in to be nearer @.90…is that the area you see as the “ribbon”? Unfortunately right after, it went down.
A ribbon is, i understand, just the name given to a progression of (usually) moving averages.
That one with the offset 50ema gives the most obvious ‘ribbon’ appearance https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9d8ba037ba92cba0218c5dee1ee894a4a40216e95935fb6c1558fe8a5c5c4786.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c26a64a3f49f51a4f2c3bab4501908c0f0a42f9fc17e8e3e2aba49a357023f8a.jpg
there are charts.. so f5!!
hmm aks and x … will that 200 hold…
Just back to the screen and see that Oil took a squat today. It really does not bother me. I got stopped out of some positions which was a good cleansing with a small profit overall, and I’ll be looking to load up again before too long.
You know what? I thought the oil inventory was bullish. Based on delayed international imports, should have been a heavy increase, instead it was a draw, with yes a slight increase in gasoline stocks. But the market doesn’t care what I think!! So, guess it doesn’t matter at all.
If nat gas can get to $3, I’ll sell out, hope we can do that soon with shoulder season now here.
OAS upped it’s offer on senior convertible notes another $25M tonight, my broker is showing higher AH (though that is not always reliable). We’ll see. Some positive news in the space would be welcome. Fed next week and then OPEC the weekend after Fed. May be hard for oil to rally before these events. May be easy to rally after??? Time will tell.
Copper was up big today. Does that put base metal miners back in play soon? They didn’t react today at all, though!
Are we about to see a retest of the 8/3 low in crude now?
Sure looks like it, doesn’t it? Maybe then it will decide it’s enough and start going north again….:)
So it just lost the 200 dma – wonder what that means…..
I haven’t been very active in here but it’s a great service and a lot of great comments. I am looking at the tight bands on LEU a nice wedge for NCQ, and several other lower weekly band set up for names from BTE to TGB
Hey Thomas, you said NCQ. I dont get that ticker any more, I think they changed their name , but they were copper and I dont know if you saw Copper yesterday, but it broke out higher . I was surprised that FCX didn’t react.
Hey Alex, yeah NCQ has chaned to TMQ
BTE has been one of my worst trades, GL there. Copper is moving, expect miners time move here shortly. I hope!