ENERGY AND PRECIOUS METALS

The OIL and NATGAS inventory reports were released on Thursday morning, It looks like we can continue making  money from the Energy set ups.

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WTIC

WTIC 9-8

NATGAS

NATGAS 9-8

Many of the strong Energy stocks pointed out here weeks or months ago are still performing very well.   Do you remember when CWEI was $6.00?  Then the buy at $10 and $15 in CWEICWEI hit $72 today.  WHEW!     CHK was up almost $1, and REI, RICE, ECA, WPX, MRO, ETC ETC are still climbing. Lets look at a few charts…

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RICE-  This was our ‘Buy the pullback test near $24’

RICE 8-9

RICE –  Back test complete and moving higher.  At $28, it’s not the 50- 100 % gainers we are used to in the riskier stocks, but for the conservative investors, these are reliable. 

RICE 9-8

REI –

REI 9-8

 

ECA –  Still running to new highs

ECA 9-8

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So now lets look at some of the smaller junior Energy stocks. As I have mentioned in the past, these can shoot up 20%, 50% even 80 % in 1 day  ( BAS was up 82% Thursday), but some of these can be debt heavy and struggling. Buyer beware, do due diligence or buy a small basket as your own little higher risk/reward etf.  Sell if it goes against you, etc etc .   Over time, I personally have pocketed HUGE gains this way in Energy and Miners, even if 1 or 2 drop quickly.

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MEMP – This set up looks ready to go. I have been holding MEMP for a while, but as price moves into the apex, it often POPS and runs. This is holding the 50sma.

MEMP

PGH –  This set up is bullish , so I posted this here earlier this week, showing divergence.

PGH 9-2

PGHThis was setting up heading into an apex too, and suddenly volume began to swell.  I was still recommending buying and mentioned that I added to my position again.

PGH 9-6

PGH –  The POP out of the apex, this can back test or just keep running. A Back test is obviously a buy if support holds. 

PGH 9-8

PGH WEEKLY –  And this is the updated big picture. I posted a weekly chart weeks ago too, pointing out the squeeze play and real upside potential. Notice that PGH remains oversold on a weekly.

PGH WKLY 9-8

 

LGCY – The 200sma and the 50sma have joined on this long consolidation. I bought this break out today and any who bought the break of the 50sma  with me in April probably remember that it tripled and practically quadrupled very quickly after a back test.   I’m not suggesting that that will be repeating this time around, but I do expect a good move higher if this gets going.

LGCY 9-8

LGCY WKLY – Very Oversold and looks to be breaking higher.  That also looks like a quick Shake out on this weekly chart. And buy the way – I bought LGCY about a month ago and I got shook out!   🙂   I took a small loss then, but I’ll make it back many times over if I am right this time.

LGCY wkly

 

ALJ – On Aug 4th I was expecting a break out. Earning were released and it was moving higher.  I expected a quick run to former highs. There was a little patch of resistance to the left .

ALJ

ALJ –  Wow that resistance really bogged this down in the $7-$8 area. It consolidated sideways , but has been a slow & steady mover. The last 2 pops were followed by a bull flag. I think that ALJ is now above resistance and could move nicely from here. At least it is not dropping down much. 

ALJ 9-8

NE – This chart set up is bullish if it breaks out from this wedge. NE  may or may not be doing well.  I know nothing about this off shore drilling and storage company fundamentals. I like the chart, it quickly doubled from here in February, but that could have been a lot of short covering.   I have no position. 

NE 9-8

NE WKLY

I am going to just put a long list of Energy stocks at the end of this report. I use a list like that to look up their charts and see if they are setting up bullishly. It may just give you something to look at during the trading day if you are bored.  Some may be able to use it, some may not. Don’t worry about it if you dont look up charts, this is for the more active traders by request.  I posted a list like this before.

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GOLD & MINERS –

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The precious metals sector is early in the daily cycle . I would expect another pop and then we can see if it runs and turns this into a bullish reversal or will it roll over into an ICL?

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GOLD -Gold could drop further to tag the 10sma.

GOLD 9-8

 

GDX – GDX has dropped to the gap twice. It could also drop a bit further and tag the 10sma & fill the gap.

GDX 9-8

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Enjoy your Friday trading and your weekend!

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~ALEX

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FOR ACTIVE TRADERS: I will often run through a list of Energy stocks ( Or Miners, or biotech, etc) and look for certain set ups in the charts. I posted a list like this in another energy report and some liked to have it in front of them to just browse charts after the markets open.

Click to enlarge. This is a random list of Energy stocks for those that wish to look up charts and see if they are set up bullishly, breaking out, at the low, at the highs, etc. 

ENERGY LISTings

HIGHER PRICED ENERGY STOCKS

ENERGY HIGHER PRICE

72 replies
  1. Crystal
    Crystal says:

    Thanks! Still in PGH and glad I held (thx to you and Miller 🙂

    Another energy to maybe add: FELP?

    Also have been watching CLF and hoping that history repeats itself (where I marked and where it is now?$

      • Crystal
        Crystal says:

        Thanks! And yes summerfun is over. — though am going to view today’s drop as a gift and add to CLF and PGH! Patience is something I happen to be good at!

  2. Shermo
    Shermo says:

    Another day another good gift to fill those gaps…thanks Alex! you keep our eye on what to look for.
    May buy some xiv on S & P if they give a signal at 2140-50 level. short term though using 30 minute chart.
    should have been in chk with you…..oh…well…maybe another gift?…

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hey Shermo,

      Yes, CHK has been good lately. Buying the next pull back may be a good one. I have others that I sold that I really regret not re-buying. I still wish held on to CWEI – that s my biggest regret selling & not getting back in on the dips, when I knew that it was a winner from $6 to $30.

      But there is always another trade : )

      Have a good one!

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Spot up 40%. Which tells us 2 things – complacency and Fed has propped the market up and they don’t want to loose their Fed secret sauce.

  3. Tammie
    Tammie says:

    I used to have NCQ in my watch list…suddenly today it says it’s not a valid symbol and I can’t pull it up on another stock site either…am I crazy and somehow have the letters reversed or something? Wasn’t that a copper stock or something like that?

  4. Bill
    Bill says:

    Buyer beware, do due diligence or buy a small basket as your own little higher risk/reward etf.

    You said “Do Due”? Happy Friday! LOL 😉

  5. deshy
    deshy says:

    Thanks for the great week Alex!. Seems no where to hide today. That means it’s time for me to take my marbles and go home! Have a great weekend everyone. Going to enjoy some the last vestiges of this Canadian summer before it’s gone.

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      My expectations were rather “this” or “That” – so it is a matter of selling if your stops get hit, and watching how it plays out.

      I dont see this as ‘damage’ in many of the Miners, but next week may be a different story

      SPY is heavy volume / NAZ is heavy – they look like break downs, and OIL seems ok ( UCO looks fine) but if the markets sell off, will Oil go too? I cant tell from 1 day.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Yes, a bit. The breakout and run to new highs is pretty much completely off the table. I’d be looking for exits and hedges and not new longs here.

      I can see this current miner DCL being an A (up) – B (down, current), – C move with C moving up to bonk head on the 50 day. That gives you a 3 wave up corrective structure on the current bounce in the context of a short-term downtrend. The fail from underneath lines up with the expected 8-11 time frame for 4th DCL top. From there we drop, perhaps sharply, into the next ICL. Warch Fed Mtg 20-21 Sep as part of this timing process!!

    • Shermo
      Shermo says:

      I agree Alex. the only recent common drops are June and last August….looks more like the seasonal Aug-Oct drop which can bring some really good buy to make the year if we get such a drop…especially if we get a really good ICL on gold miners…..worth waiting for. it is great opportunity for us. Have a good weekend.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Some of those OCTOBER market drops were notorious crashes. And with cycles and the FED- This could roll over rather early in the intermediate cycle and go deep south ( But that remains to be seen).

        have a good one!

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Yeah, we haven’t had a sell everything and run away it’s on fire moment since January. I forgot how bad this sucks (unless your monsterously short). Spot VIX was up 40% today. That’s just stupid.

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      Agreed, sold LABU this morning bought LABD. Looking for a 38.2% or 50% retracement for the markets then I’ll buy NUGT.

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Lately Fridays all seem to throw in that curve ball and make the weekend reports difficult .

        But today did look pretty much like the general markets investors were heading for the exits.

        Have a good weekend and go easy on the growler – lol

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        IBB lost the 50 day hard at the open. XBI still settled on the 10 day. Whichever way markets and NAZ go on Monday, so will bio.

  6. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Have a good weekend everyone.

    With Fridays action, the weekend report will take a little extra research and thinking, and I have plans for the weekend. . I’ll try to shoot for Sunday night though.

    Have fun, Be safe!

    • R Byram
      R Byram says:

      Looking forward to the report Alex. This was a bit of a chilling day, but I noticed GLD is only down .66% and sits on the 10sma.

      I froze today instead of playing the short side.

  7. R Byram
    R Byram says:

    I’m just sitting here gazing at the oil chart and right where we are at 45.71 is a nice area of support from a 2 week time period in July and again in April/May.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      I’d like a rebound from here. I’m not day trading energy, I wanted to swing for a few weeks to months through intermediate cycle. Can’t fail yet!!

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